Michael Löchl Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT) July 2005 Modelling businesses and...
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Transcript of Michael Löchl Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT) July 2005 Modelling businesses and...
Michael Löchl
Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT)July 2005
Modelling businesses and employment:UrbanSim and its application in Zurich
Workshop of Land Use Transportation (LUT) Modelling Group, London
Project Overview
ETH Research Focus „The Future of Urbanized Landscapes“ is funded by
• ETH Zurich• Swiss Federal Office for Spatial Development
Involved people within project:• Prof. Kay W. Axhausen (IVT, ETH Zurich)• Prof. Willy Schmid (IRL, ETH Zurich)• Michaela Bürgle (IRL/IVT, ETH Zurich)• Michael Löchl (IVT, ETH Zurich)• Urs Waldner (IRL, ETH Zurich)
• Prof. Paul Waddell (U. of Washington)
Project overview
Stage 1• Applying UrbanSim in the Greater Zurich area• Loosely coupled with transport models of Canton Zurich
Stage 2• Adjustment/ expansion of model system
– Introducing transport network with flows and volume– Introduce impacts of traffic noise and road pricing on
location choice• Analysing case studies
Project Schedule
2005: Household survey in Greater Zurich area
Model estimations
First simulation runs for 1990 to 2000 for validation purposes
2006: Adjustment and development of new simulation modules
Running case studies
End of project: beginning of 2007
Data sources and estimations
• Employer counts per sector from national statistics both at - municipality level (90, 95/96, 98, 00/01)
and - hectar raster level (95/96, 98, 00/01)• Employer forecasts are available from Canton Zurich
• Simple disaggregation measures where needed• Adjustments needed for small businesses (1-3 employees)
based on their spatial distribution• Overall input data quality can be judged as good
• Employment movement probabilities are required
Firmography in UrbanSim
• Early UrbanSim version tried to consider firmography, but failed
• Developers are aware of the problems => abstraction as solution
• Forecasts of sectoral employment has to be provided externaly
• Single jobs are considered as entities, sectors can be defined
• Employment losses are assumed to be proportional to spatial distribution of jobs in the sector
• Takeovers are not considered
Influence of endogenous variables on employment change in UrbanSim
• Location choice/ probability to locate elsewhere is determined by– Availability of space– Land price (Land price model)– Local agglomerations– Accessibility to population (accessibility model)– Travel time to CBD, airport (transport model)
• But job losses are assumed to be proportional to the spatial distribution of jobs in the sector
UrbanSim – Framework with regard to employment
Model Coordinator
Travel Model
AccessibilityModel
Export Model
Economic TransitionModel
Land Price Model
Employment Mobility Model
Employment Location Choice
Model
Real Estate Development Model
Data
Employment base year and forecasts (control totals)
Input
Treatment of Location/ Relocation in UrbanSim
• Economic Transition Model calculates creation/loss of jobs• Employment Mobility Model calculates which jobs have to
be relocated• Employment Location Model (re-)locates jobs by randomly
selecting a predetermined amount of potential available spaces and decides by discrete choice model (MNL) where to locate
• Stock of available space is fixed in short-term • Locators are price takers
Treatment of interaction between firms
• Only considered in location choice model by taking into account employment mix within a specific radius of potential location