A climate of insecurity

Michael Le Page

Environment Features Editor

New Scientist

Leaked cable sent from the US Embassy in Damascus to the State Department in 2008:

“The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs launched an appeal on September 29 requesting roughly $20.23 million to assist an estimated one million people impacted by what the U.N. describes as the country’s worst drought in four decades.”

“If UNFAO efforts fail, [Syria’s UN FAO representative Abdullah bin] Yehia predicts mass migration from the northeast, which could act as a multiplier on social and economic pressures already at play and undermine stability.”

Food prices and riots

It’s complicated….

…but climate change can play a role in conflicts

Zhang 2011

Scientists are conservative!

The question to ask is not:Will climate change be as bad the scientific consensus suggests?

Instead, it’s:Will climate change be even worse than the scientific consensus suggests?

• We are already seeing an increase in extreme weather events

• Basic physics tells us there will be more extreme heatwaves and more extreme rainfall events in a warmer world

• Changes in jet stream behaviour due to Arctic warming may also be contributing to the rise in extreme weather events. If so, can expect sharp rise in extreme events

• Increasing damage to homes, infrastructure and crops will undermine development and exacerbate factors such as migration, epidemics and social unrest

• We cannot say for sure which areas will be hardest hit – great uncertainties in short-term and regional projections

The coming decades…