Michael Epprecht Centre for Development and Environment CDE University of Bern, Switzerland...
Transcript of Michael Epprecht Centre for Development and Environment CDE University of Bern, Switzerland...
Michael Epprecht
Centre for Development and Environment CDEUniversity of Bern, Switzerland
Targeting poverty in the Lao PDR:how well do current approaches reach the poor?
September 1 – 4, 2013
Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
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► Background of the SAE in the Lao PDR
► Results of the Lao poverty mapping analysis
► Implications for targeting
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Mapping Poverty in the Lao PDR
Small-area estimation analysis using
Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey 2003
(LECS III)
8092 households (20% urban)
in 540 villages (5%)
Population and Housing Census 2005
Systematic sample of 75% of households:
712,900 households
4,123,988 individuals
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Rural Urban X X X X X X. X X X X . .
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• Household size• Household size squared• Age composition of household • Female-headed household .• Education of head • Education of spouse• Occupation of head • Ethnicity .• Type of floor• Type of wall• Type of roof• Area of house . • Type of water source• Type of toilet• Type of cooking energy• Village cooking energy .• Village floor type• Village ethnicity• Agro-ecological region
SAE poverty mapping model applied in Lao PDR
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► Lao poverty mapping analysis
Reliability of results
Where are the poor?
Who are the poor?
► Poverty estimates and confidence intervalsR
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► Size of Lao villages (75% sample)R
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Poverty rates arehighest in the South East along the mountainous border with Vietnam
Rural poverty is low in
• Xayaburi Province:high value agric. for export
• Mekong corridor:irrigated rice and trade with Thailand
• Boloven plateau:fertile basaltic soils - coffee, tea, & cardamom
► Spatial patterns of poverty in the Lao PDR
► Spatial patterns of poverty in the Lao PDR
Poverty incidence and poverty density
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► Lao poverty mapping analysis
Where are the poor?
Who are the poor?
Poverty rates amongmale- and female-headed households:
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► Poverty among ethnic groups
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► Poverty among ethnic groups
With the poor a bit of everywhere:
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With the poor a bit of everywhere:
?► What are the
implications…
…for targeting of poverty alleviation efforts?
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► Where to reach the poor?
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G► MDG 1: Reducing the number of poor people
by 50 % in 2015
50% of the poor live in districts classified as not poor
1/3 of the poor live in poor priority districts
Highest poverty density Poorest areas
► MDG 1: Reducing Laos’ number of poor by 50%IM
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► Most people are poor in remote, and sparsely
populated areas
high ‘access’ costs per person
costly service provision
little potential ‘leakage’ to non-poor
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► Most poor people live in comparatively
densely populated areas
low ‘physical access’ costs per person, but
potentially higher targeting costs
cheaper service provision
high ‘leakage’ to non-poor
► Balancing targeting (and implementation) costs vs. ‘leakage’
► Considerations on type of assistance in targeting(household vs. community/ geographic)
► Data needs, and updatability of key data
► Regional development approach in sparsely populated poor remote areas
► Household or population segment targeting in densely populated areas
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