Michael BurchNovember 11, 2010

2000◦ US Cole Attack

2001◦ 9/11◦ Afghanistan

2002◦ Bali

2003◦ Iraq

2004◦ Madrid

2005◦ London

2007◦ Bhutto Assassination

2008◦ Mumbai Hotel Attacks

Defining Modern Terrorism Where do Terrorists Come From?

◦ Motivations◦ Location

Exploring Contemporary Case Studies◦ IRA, Tamil Tigers & Al-Qaeda

Strategies of Terrorism Responses to Terrorism

No agreed upon definition◦ Use of Violence◦ Public Act and Use of Fear◦ Motivation for Attack◦ Identity of Target◦ Identity of Attacker◦ Planned with a Clear Purpose

Gain Supporters and Coerce Opponents

Where do they come from?◦Weak States are not a good base because

there is uncertainty and instability◦Piazza (2008) argues that weak and failed

states not only attract terrorists but provide a fertile recruiting ground for transnational terror

What are their backgrounds?◦Tend to be well-educated◦Live in regions with high unemployment

Religious Grievances◦ “Derelict Arabic terrorists in the air

arrogant apparent to punish people by their heritage…your God is with you…Cause if you right and, know you right, then where's your righteous ways?” -Gorillaz featuring D12

Economic Grievances◦ “How many no money boyz are rowdy? How many

start a war?”-M.I.A. Political Grievances

◦ “I’m out for presidents to represent me.”- Nas

Founded: 1922 Finances

◦ Crime◦ Diaspora

Methods ◦ Car Bombs◦ Assassinations

Motivations◦ United Ireland free

of British influence

The “Troubles” Fractionalization Take the fight to

Britain 1982 Hyde Park

Bombing Good Friday

Accords

Founded: 1976 Finances

◦ Diaspora Operations

◦ Suicide Terrorism◦ Assassination

Motivation ◦ Independent

homeland for Tamil population

Suicide attacks begin in the 1980s

Assassinate former PM of India

Role of Diaspora May 17, 2009

◦ Admit Defeat

Founded: 1980s Finances

◦ Bin Laden Fortune◦ Islamic Charities

Methods◦ “Defensive Jihad”

Motivations◦ Reduce US presence in

Middle East◦ Capture Jerusalem◦ Replace Apostate

Rulers

Fought the Soviets in the 1980s

Wanted to fight Saddam in 1990

Turned to attacking US/Saudi Arabia

1998 Embassy Bombings

Attrition◦ Terrorists seek to persuade target they are strong

enough to impose great costs Intimidation

◦ Directed towards population to convince them government cannot protect

Provocation◦ Get government to respond indiscriminately to

attacks

Spoiling◦Moderates representing terrorist

concerns are weak Outbidding

◦Convince public that terrorist group has greater resolve than rival groups

Attrition◦Concede inessential issues◦Targeted retaliation

Intimidation◦“clear and hold” strategies◦Strengthening law enforcement

responses

Provocation◦Discriminatory Response: Invest in

Intelligence Spoiling

◦Build trust and reduce vulnerability Outbidding

◦Reward strategies of non-violent groups

Target Hardening Enhanced Security

◦ US Patriot Act Other Defensive

Measures◦ Used for attrition

campaigns, like the Wall in Israel

Lyall(2010) ◦ Co-ethnic sweeps

Pape’s Dying to Win (2005)◦ “Understanding that suicide terrorism is mainly a

response to foreign occupation rather than the product of Islamic fundamentalism has important implications for how the United States and its allies should conduct the war on terrorism.”

Defeating Current Generation◦ Military and Concessions do not work

Preventing Next Generation◦ Pull out of the Middle East

Do not achieve their goals Do not attack as a last resort They reflexively reject compromises Possess protean political platforms Generally carry out anonymous attacks Routinely attack each other They resist disbanding even when it

becomes clear they wont achieve their goal

Terrorist attacks have decreased Intensity has Increased Attacks have shifted from the West to

Middle East & South Asia Attempted Yemen attacks have been

thwarted Be Happy!

Popular Culture Academia

Film◦ The Dark Knight◦ Paradise Now◦ The Kingdom◦ Munich◦ War of the Worlds◦ Inglourious Basterds◦ Taxi to the Darkside

TV ◦ 24◦ Battlestar Galactica◦ PBS’s Frontline

Music◦ Immortal Technique◦ M.I.A.

Books◦ Robert Pape. Dying to Win: The

Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism

◦ Steven Coll. Ghost Wars Articles

◦ Andrew Kydd and Barbara Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism.”

◦ Jason Lyall. “Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents?

◦ Max Abrahms. “What Terrorists Really Want.”

Databases ◦ START:

http://www.start.umd.edu/start/data/#gtd