MGQ 201WEEK 7

VICTORIA LOJACONO

Opportunity for FREE POINTS on the midterm!

We are doing an underwear drive for Compass House, a shelter for runaway and homeless youth in the Buffalo area

If 25% - 49% donate, everyone will get 1 point on the midterm

If 50% - 74% donate, everyone will get 2 points on the midterm

If 75% - 99% donate, everyone will get 3 points on the midterm

If 100% donate, everyone will get 4 points on the midterm

THIS IS AN EASY WAY TO GET FREE POINTS!

Acceptable Donations (Pick 1): $5 cash

one pack of womens underwear (ages 12-17)

one pack of mens underwear (ages 12-17)

one pack of socks

I will be collecting in recitation next week!

Word simulation, word capstone, and attendance so far is posted!

on the school of management grading site:

https://mgt2.buffalo.edu/apps/ormVirtualGradingOffice/index.cfm

THESE ARE THE GRADES THAT COUNT! (not the ones in MyStatLab and MyITLab) so make sure that they are correct!

The maximum number of recitations we have had so far (not including this week) is 6

The number you see next to attendance is recitations attended out of 6I am not sure exactly how the professor plans to calculate attendance grades

REMINDER: How to Check What You Got Wrong on the Capstone ProjectsGo to: Grades Custom View Hover your mouse over the assignment you want click the down arrow that appears view submissions click the date/time of the submission you want download submission with live comments. Then click the second tab at the bottom and roll your mouse over the cells with red triangles in the corner to get the correct answer.

Chapter 4Question 1 NotesA probability indicates the chance or likelihood of an event occurring

It ranges from 0 to 1

Usually translated into a percentage

Question 1

Question 2

Note: There are 13 cards in each suit

Question 3

Note: A probability must equal 100%

Question 4 NotesFormula for the addition rule for events that are not mutually exclusive:

P(X or Y) = P(X) + P(Y) – P(X and Y)

which means, the probability of x or y = the probability of x plus the probability of y minus the probability of x and y

Question 4

Question 4 – Part A Find P (B or C)

Step 1: Find the total number of outcomes in the sample space

Step 2: Find the probability of B and the probability of C

B: 22/50 = 0.44

C: 6+9 = 15, so 15/50 = 0.3

Step 3: Find the probability of B and C

P (B and C) = 9/50 = 0.18

Step 4: Use formula:P(X or Y) = P(X) + P(Y) – P(X and Y)0.44+0.30-0.18 = 0.56

Answer: 0.56

Repeat for B,C, and D

Question 5 NotesFormula:

Which means, the probability of x given y = the probability of x and y divided by the probability of y

*The given parameter is always the one on the bottom

Question 5

Question 5 – Part A Determine the probability of P (A|C)

Step 1: Find total number of possible outcomes

Step 2: Find P (A and C)

Number of events for P (A and C): 4

Divide by the total number of outcomes: 4/100 = 0.04

Step 3: Find P (C)

Add all C events: 4+4 and divide by total4+4/100 = 0.08

Step 4:

0.04/0.08 = 0.5

Question 6

If you are given the copy data option, then you can do this type of problem in excel. You can use the same formula for P(A|B):

*see excel**Don’t worry about Bayes’ Theorem here, you can use the regular formula

Question 7 NotesMutually Exclusive: when two events cannot occur at the same time

Not mutually exclusive: when two events can occur at the same time

Independent: when the occurrence of one event has no impact on the occurrence of the other event

Dependent: when the occurrence of one event impacts the occurrence of the other event

Question 7

Question 8 NotesStep 1: Make a chart organizing all given variables

Necessary formulas:

Question 8

Question 8 cont.Make this chart first and then use formulas on previous slides.

This chart can be used to answer parts a – f.

Question 8 GFor part G, we can see the answer is A because B does not include C. It is also not properly organized.

Question 9

Question 10

*Note:Use excel Note for part D:

Question 11

Question 12*Use excel

Question 13 Notes Bayes’ Theorem formula:

P(A) * P(B|A)________

[P(A)*P(B|A)] + [P(A’)*P(B|A’)]

A = probability of A happening

A’ = probability of A not happening

A + A’ must = 1

Question 13*This can be tricky, so follow my excel work to help you understand how the formula works!

Question 14 NotesIf order is important then you find the number of permutations

Formula:

n is the number of objects

x is the number of objects you are selecting out of n

Plug n and x into the formula and solve

OR do this on your calculator!

On calculator: “n” then “nPr” then “x” then “enter”

Question 14

Reminders Stats quiz 4 due Sunday 10/19

The next simulation and capstone is due 10/31