MFA 05 2011 EN - HSBC...11.7% YoY in March. M2 grew by 15.3% YoY in Apr, down from 16.6% YoY in...

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Market.Focus.Asia HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited Asia ex-Japan Korea China Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore India Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Advert June 2011

Transcript of MFA 05 2011 EN - HSBC...11.7% YoY in March. M2 grew by 15.3% YoY in Apr, down from 16.6% YoY in...

Page 1: MFA 05 2011 EN - HSBC...11.7% YoY in March. M2 grew by 15.3% YoY in Apr, down from 16.6% YoY in March. New bank lending totaled Rmb739.6bn, as compared to 679.4bn in March. Retail

Market.Focus.Asia HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited Asia ex-Japan Korea China Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore India Taiwan Indonesia Thailand

Advert June 2011

Page 2: MFA 05 2011 EN - HSBC...11.7% YoY in March. M2 grew by 15.3% YoY in Apr, down from 16.6% YoY in March. New bank lending totaled Rmb739.6bn, as compared to 679.4bn in March. Retail

Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Asia Pacific Ex-Japan MSCI Asia Pacific Ex-Japan USD +33.5% +21.9% -30.3% +11.5% +39.8% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2010 Page 2

Asia ex-Japan

Global equity markets had a challenging month of May. Investors remained cautious about the deterioration in macro news flow, global growth slowdown and inflation risks. After a resilient performance in April, Asian markets retreated with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 2.65% in USD terms.

Review Global equity markets had a challenging month of May. Inves-tors remained cautious about the deterioration in macro news flow, global growth slowdown and inflation risks. After a resilient performance in April, Asian markets retreated with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 2.65% in USD terms. From a style perspective, momentum signals outperformed while markets were led by analyst sentiments during the month.

In terms of macro picture, European sovereign debt issues re-surfaced, plaguing the market. The financial aid package forPortugal and a potential second financial aid package for Greecespurred investors’ concerns. Back in Asia, markets closely moni-tored the economic data released by China. Macro data fromChina came in weaker than expected, especially in the industrialproduction print of 13.4%. Following the macro data, PBOChiked the RRR by a further 50bps. Central banks in India, Malay-sia and the Philippines staged respective rate hikes during the month too.

On the earnings front, regional CY1Q11 earnings grew 16%from 4Q10 on a sequential basis. Thailand had the strongestresults while Taiwan and Malaysia had the weakest. At a sectorlevel, Energy was the one with the strongest results.

In terms of single country performance in May, India underper-formed with the Sensex losing -3.50% for the month. Korea and Thailand followed posting losses of -2.43% (KOSPI) and -2.33% (SET) respectively. The Great China region, including China,Hong Kong and Taiwan, relatively outperformed with flat abso-lute returns.

Outlook It has been a volatile May and we saw foreign net selling in the Asia ex Japan region in the past month. However com-pared to last year around this time, we are struck by the contradiction between the dismal prevailing sentiment and the fairly resilient actual market performance. Despite a 360-degree battering of soft data and unwelcome news flow: think patchy US recovery, China's credit crash-diet, and the latest dramatic installment of peripheral Europe's prolonged sovereign agony, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index is still up 1% on the quarter. This exemplifies how investors in Asia are much more focused on earnings over macro sentiments.

Asia is trading at a discount to the world in PB/ROE terms and also trading at a discount to its historical average after recent corrections. In particular, China looks very attractive from a profitability/valuation perspective. Markets will sepa-rate the wheat from the chaff in the third year of recovery and it is more important than ever to focus on quality com-panies who have the pricing power and competitiveness to resist inflationary pressure on profit margins. Asian equity markets will reward investors with a quality investing bias and solid research capabilities.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

China MSCI China HKD +18.4% +14.8% -22.6% +27.8% +65.5% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 3

China

Chinese equities were flat in May with the MSCI China indi-ces down 0.1%, largely on the back of growth concerns by our assessment. The best performing sectors were con-sumer and coal while the worst, auto parts (slow down inauto sales) and machinery (FAI growth risks).

Review On May 13, the People’s Bank of China announced the 5th re-serve requirement ratio (RRR) hike in the year, bringing the RRRto 21.0% for large banks, effective May 18 2011. Inflationstayed high as CPI rose 5.3% YoY in April, only a mild ease fromthe 5.4% YoY in March. CPI Food price growth trended lower,posting an increase of 11.5% YoY in April, compared to a rise of11.7% YoY in March. M2 grew by 15.3% YoY in Apr, down from16.6% YoY in March. New bank lending totaled Rmb739.6bn, ascompared to 679.4bn in March. Retail sales growth dropped to17.1% in April, compared to 17.4% YoY in March. Exportsgrowth declined to 29.9% YoY in Apr, after a surge in March (up35.8% YoY). Imports growth also slowed down to 21.8% YoY inApr from March’s 27.3% YoY. Trade surplus recovered to US$11.4bn from March’s US$0.1bn.

Outlook We expect both A & H market to trade range bound in the next1-2 months as the market oscillates between growth concernsand inflation concerns. Given the monetary tightening measures since 4Q 2010 and signs of weakness in the economy, e.g.slowdown in IP and PMI remaining subdued, the market has become increasingly concerned about the risk of a hard landingin recent weeks; on the other hand, draughts and power short-age are adding fuel to inflation expectations.

While power shortage, inventory adjustments, and credit tight-ening do present some headwinds to industrial production

growth, they are short-term in nature and less damaging than the perception of many market participants. Soft land-ing remains our base case for 2H11. Hard landing risk re-mains minimal at this stage, given: 1) Public housing in-vestment to rise by 100% in 2011 2) Exports and private consumption will remain resilient 3) Consumption of ser-vices is strong. We think policymakers have ample room to relax policy in response to any unexpected slow down that is substantial, and China's fiscal position is still strong given the low debt/GDP ratio.

We expect low growth and high inflation in the near term (next 2 months), which may not support a constructive picture on the market. However, we expect a potential inflection point to occur in 3Q, when headline inflation peaks out on lower carryover effect and softening food prices (if some S-T factors, such as weather, turn out to be temporary), and as a result monetary tightening could ease. In 2004, China H shares bottomed 4 months prior to the peak of inflation in August. We expect a similar scenario this year, though the timing may not be exactly the same. As such, although we are more cautiously positioning our-selves for now, we think the next 1-2 months would pro-vide a good period of entry for the inflection point we ex-pect in 3Q and a sustainable recovery afterwards.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index HKD +23.0% +12.2% -23.1% +22.1% +34.3% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 4

Hong Kong

Market fundamentals remain solid with the local economy growing at a better-than-expected pace, while the consensusearnings forecasts are seeing positive upgrades. There is ample liquidity in the equity market despite fund outflows earlier this year.

Review The Hong Kong market remained range bound in May, amidstmarket concerns over a slowdown in China’s economic growthand rising inflation. Renewed concerns on Europe’s sovereigndebt issues and the expiry of the quantitative easing in the US inJune were not helping sentiment. Despite the market volatility, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) ended the month of May virtually flat with the daily turnover averaged at HKD64.6bn compared withHKD75.5bn in 1Q11. In terms of sector performance, the utilitysector was the only sector that registered a positive return forthe month, while the finance sector was the worst performerwith a drop of 1.6%.

Outlook The Hong Kong market is likely to be range bound until there is aclearer picture on the economic conditions in China and the US. We believe investors will be looking for signs of inflation peakingin China and whether the mainland economy is heading for a hard landing as a result of over-tightening. There are also con-cerns that the buoyant local economy is hinging on the assetmarket performance and prevailing easy monetary conditions which may be subject to painful corrections when capital flowsreverse. Despite the near term volatility, we remain optimisticthat the market may break out of its trading range in the latterpart of the year as more data which come out in the summermay allay investors’ fears. We recommend adding to our posi-tions on any major dips. Market valuation is also supportive after the recent pullbacks and upgrades in corporate earnings forecasts.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

India BSE SENSEX 30 Index INR +10.8% +17.5% -9.9% +14.2% +41.9%

Indien S&P India Select Index USD +9.0% +8.4% -5.7% n.a n.a Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 5

India

The quarter four earning season was disappointing withIndex heavy weights from Information Technology and Fi-nancial missing estimates. We saw on an overall basis reve-nue growth to be strong but input cost pressures were evi-dent in the margins of the companies.

Review Indian markets underperformed the global indices for the second consecutive month on back of higher than expected Reserve Bank of India action of raising rates by 50bps at the policy meet-ing on May 3, 2011and a disappointing earnings season. Indianmarkets on an YTD basis now ranks among one of the worstperforming within emerging markets. BSE SENSEX lost 5.11%in May and 10.49% on YTD basis (in USD terms). The S&P/IFCIIndia Index (our benchmark) was down 4.28% for the month.The best performing sector was Cpnsumer Staples (1.33%), theonly sector with positive returns during the month of May. Utili-ties (-7.48%), Materials (-5.87%) were the worst two performingsectors for May. Midcap index outperformed both the large capand small cap indices for May, though on YTD basis large capIndex continues to outperform other indices. The concerns on growth and inflation along with continued gov-ernment inaction on critical issues have raised concerns amongforeign investors. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were netsellers in the cash market to the tune of USD 1.15bn after re-maining buyers for three months in a row, while domestic insur-ance companies and mutual funds were net buyers and sellersof USD 925mn and USD 11mn respectively.

The much awaited elections in the key states of West Ben-gal, Tamil Nadu, Kerela and Assam were a mixed bag for ruling UPA, though hopes on reforms were ignited once again on back of election getting out of the way. Among the major states, West Bengal saw a major sweep by Trinamool Congress (TMC; in alliance with Congress) with the Left Front being voted out after 34 years in power. In Tamil Nadu, the corruption tainted DMK-Congress alliance was swept out by Jayalalithaa led AIDMK. Kerala was a close contest with the Congress led UDF defeating the LDF. Assam and Puducherry has been won by the Congress. In Assam, the Congress won power for a third term, once again underscoring that government’s that perform are getting elected back.

Outlook Consensus earnings estimates continue to see downgrades in with a 1.2% and 1.5% cut in estimates for FY2012 and FY2012. Earnings growth for FY2012 and FY2013 now stand at 22% and 18% respectively (Source: JP Morgan Research). We believe consensus estimates will get revised downwards as estimates get revised for the quarter gone by. We have seen valuation again reaching ten year average on concerns of earnings downgrades. At these valuations risk reward look favorable for investors taking a medium term outlook. We expect the Indian market to give about 13-15% return per annum on average over the decade to 2020. We maintain that India should be a core holding in any growth-oriented portfolio, and that sharp relative or absolute moves should be used to adjust portfolio weights in a direction opposite to the move.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index IDR +40.6% +49.8% -19.4% +20.3% +61.4%

Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index USD +51.1% +67.9% -27.3% +14.3% +69.3% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 6

Indonesia

We believe the outlook for the domestic thermal coal market remains strong especially given the recent force majeure in Australia helping keep prices strong. We are happy to remainoverweight selective names in the sector.

Review The Indonesian equity market (Jakarta Composite Index) endedMay down 30bps as foreign investors saw no reason to buy orsell the market. There are 2 main reasons why Indonesia is stilltemporarily out of favor however; 1) there is a perception the BIhas been behind the curve on raising interest rates with inflation becoming a big problem later in the year and 2) foreign investorshave been net sellers of emerging markets over the last month infavor of developed market equities on expectations of a recoveryin the US. Coal Stocks saw mixed performance with Bumi and ITMG un-derperforming while UNTR outperformed. CPO stocks generallyunperformed despite rising CPO prices. The notable exceptionwas UNSP which rose ore than 15% during the month. Banks underperformed during the month on rising inflation concerns.

Outlook Infrastructure remains a swing factor for GDP growth going intothe 2nd half of 2011. Loan growth remains strong and consumer spending is buoyant which should help the shift towards domes-tic consumption which would favor domestic retailers like AstraIntl and RALS.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Korea KOSPI Index KRW +30.7% +19.3% -23.3% +10.8% +31.9% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 7

Korea

We continue to re-orient the portfolio slightly more toward reasonably valued technology and cyclicals while keepingan overweight position in diversified financials which arepositively geared to rising interest rates.

Review KOSPI dropped in May, partially reversing previous two con-secutive months’ rally. The best performing sector was utilities,while the worst performing was financials, in particular the secu-rities industry. Foreign investors turned to net sellers this month, selling nearlyW2.6 trillion of stocks after net buying for two months in a row.Bank of Korea surprisingly kept the key rate at 3% for the sec-ond consecutive month vs the market consensus of a 25 bpshike, with more cautious comments on growth path and infla-tion.

Outlook Even though industrial production and exports data suggest that the economy is no longer in free fall, the market is vulnerable to a correction given the sharp rally from Oct ’08 lows. After econ-omy and corporate earnings have bottomed out in 1Q09, earn-ings revisions are trending upward and geared to global eco-nomic acceleration, however, inflation has started to slow downthe pace of expansion.

Page 8: MFA 05 2011 EN - HSBC...11.7% YoY in March. M2 grew by 15.3% YoY in Apr, down from 16.6% YoY in March. New bank lending totaled Rmb739.6bn, as compared to 679.4bn in March. Retail

Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite MYR +25.9% +27.2% -14.5% -0.8% +51.3%

Malaysia MSCI Malaysia MYR +26.9% +25.1% -14.8% -2.6% +53.6% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 8

Malaysia The KLCI was marginally up for the month (+1.5%), while thecurrency weakened by 1.6%. The Malaysian Ringgit had ap-preciated by 11% in 2010. Top MSCI sector performers wereUtilities (+7.2%) and Energy (5.3%) for the month. Consumer Discretionary was the biggest laggard, falling 3.2%.

Review 1Q11 GDP came in below consensus expectations of 4.9% at4.6% y/y. CPI rose in line with market expectations to 3.2% y/yin April (March 2011: 3.0%). Sugar prices were raised in May and the government indicated an intention to review its fuel subsidy rationalization program in June. Export growth (electronics, commodities, petro, chemicals, etc.) was slower, at 7.8% inMarch, after 10.5% in Feb 2011. Imports increased by 12.1% inMarch. Bank Negara Malaysia has hiked the overnight policy ratefor the first time in 2011, by 25bps to 3%. The statutory reserverequirement (SRR) was also raised to 3% from 25, on 16 May2011. The government announced further liberalisation of FXcontrols on invesments abroad, starting June 2011. Implementa-tion of projects under the ETP (Economic Transformation Project) remains the main focus of the government.

Outlook With the exception of a couple of stocks that could benefit di-rectly from the ETP rollout, market is fairly valued at current lev-els of ca. 16-17x. The market has headwinds, but has upside riskthan downside risk. Foreign investors might underestimate thegrowth push of ETP. Pump priming of the economy ahead of thepossible snap elections is expected to continue. Foreign investors were largely absent from the Malaysian equi-ties market during 2010. The main investor attraction to foreign-ers has been the strong ringgit, which is perceived as a proxy to

a stronger renminbi, but the fund inflow has been into Ma-laysia government bonds rather than equities. Consensus earnings forecasts suggest valuations are 17x 2010E PE. We expect Malaysia to underperform other Asian markets which might rise on the back of FII net inflows, but it will outperform if FII flows reverse direction in those markets. Malaysia is a defensive play relative to Asia ex-Japan space, as it is not dependant on FII flows. Commodity prices rises in palm oil and rubber are positive for the Malaysian rural economy, as it contributes to income. Downside is likely to be supported by local fund support (captive local institutions), limited investment choices for Malaysian individuals, and most Asian funds are under-weight Malaysia already, whilst upside is constrained by unattractive relative valuations, few liquid large caps, and lack of visible catalysts. Investors want to see concrete implementation of action plans of announced government policy changes. Malaysia’s Economic Transformation Pro-gramme has the potential to boost domestic consumption and job growth. We like AirAsia as a play on rising domestic demand for airline flights.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Singapore STI Index SGD +18.2% +21.9% -23.7% -5.6% +47.2% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 9

Singapore

Potential exists for corporate re-leveraging, and this mightlead to capital structure changes (more dividends/share buy-backs) and corporate action (M&A, etc). Consensus EPSgrowth forecasts for 2011 are expected to come down to11%, due to a slowing economy.

Review The STI Index was flat for the month. The general elections in the country dominated mindspace. The incumbent party retained power comfortably, though there was a drop in popularity, repre-senting the worst vote share since full independence (1965). Thischange in perception might drive many policy decisions, affectinghousing stocks in particular. SGD was weak for the month, butthe YTD trend is still positive, with 4.1% gain against the USD sofar. The strongest sectors were Telecom (+2.5%) and ConsumerStaples (+2.2%). Consumer discretionary (-3.8%) and Industrials (-3.7%) were the weakest sectors. The appreciating currency could reduce earnings of companies with business from overseas. Inflation has been as expected, at4.5%, trending down from 5% the month before. Consumerprices were flat in April after a 0.3% rise in March m/m sa. Sin-gapore’s final 1Q GDP numbers showed a 22.5% expansion q/q, sa, a little lower than the Advance GDP estimate of 23.5%.

Outlook We are cautious on this market for 1H2011, at least. (We use P/Enumbers with Bloomberg EPS numbers), and we have around11x P/E, which is a mid-cycle valuation. Earnings estimates havefallen a bit from March, due to slower growth. Inclusive growth isthe new mantra post the election. Political maturity has possiblycome of age in Singapore. Pace of growth is likely to slow, as theruling party will likely re-assess its policies and approach to gov-ernment.

In any case, we expect Singapore growth to slow in H2, driven by slowing global growth after a larger than expected cyclical rebound in H1 2011. We expect GDP growth rate to slow to c.4-6% in 2011, from 14.7% in 2010, on the back of a weaker US recovery. This projection of slower is also a function of slowing regional trade growth, an appreciating currency, and fading lagged effects of fiscal stimulus. How-ever, Singapore’s distinguishing characteristics in a South-east Asian context are likely to be very low interest rates and an appreciating currency. Low interest rates will keep the credit environment friendly, but a rising SGD and slower GDP growth will likely moderate the expansion in credit during 2011. In the short term (early 2011), Singapore’s robust growth momentum will likely carry through, with the Budget 2011 announced in February likely to provide additional clues about the government’s attitude towards fiscal and mone-tary policies in the lead up to general elections sometime in the next 13 months. QE2 has benefited Singapore, not by re-rating nominal asset prices per se, but by lifting regional demand for consumer and investment services, which would play into Singapore’s strength as a regional hub. Stocks appear inexpensive versus bonds; the latter have heavily re-rated as inflows chase Singapore dollar apprecia-tion.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Taiwan MSCI Taiwan TWD +25.6% +8.0% -20.3% +6.3% +18.8% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 10

Taiwan

Financials underperformed as investors were disappointed with the loan spread, which is not expanding despite of the strong loan growth. Plastics also under-performed due toconcern over contraction in spread and the temporary halt inproduction for the Formosa group due to an accident.

Review In May, Taiwan market and MSCI Taiwan dropped 0.2% and0.4% respectively as investors’ sentiment turned more cautious and we saw market daily turnover dropped. Average daily turn-over decreased -7.5% MoM to NT$107.0 billion in May. NTdollar against USD was relatively stable this month, closing atNT28.657 versus NT 28.609 against USD as of the end of April2011. Foreign investors net sold NT$18.3 billion in May after netbought NT$97.1 billion in April. Local ITCs net sold NT0.1 billion. On the other hand, local mutual funds net bought NT0.5 billionafter net sold NT$4.7 billion in April. In terms of sector perform-ance, Technology and Cement sectors out-performed, rising0.7% MoM and 0.8% respectively. Transportation and auto alsoout-performed, +2.2% and +10.7% respectively. Financials,Plastics and Steel under-performed (-1.5%, -6.5% and -3.5% respectively). We saw a nice rebound from the Technology sector as compo-nent shortage is not as severe as feared on the handset frontwhile we saw stabilization and some improvement on thePC/server demand front. Cement sector continued to do well for the third consecutive month on the back of outlook of recovering cement prices both in China and Taiwan. Transportation also outperformed for the second month on cross-strait talks leadingtowards opening up of individual visiting schemes for mainlandChinese tourists. The county government would like to do moresecurity inspections before allowing the plant to be openedagain. On the political front, DPP nominated its presidential can-didate Tsai Ing Wen. On the cross strait front, there have beentalks of possible start of China’s individual travel scheme startingat the end of June but not yet confirm by the officials.

Outlook Liquidity would continue to serve as a key driver for upward trending market given the low interest rate environment, and relatively strong NTD. Furthermore, progress on cross-strait relations such as the individual travel scheme and the allowance of potential strategic investments in restricted sectors would likely lead to stronger domestic confidence. Last but not least, we believe Taiwan and China would work very closely to unleash more favorable policies prior to the January 2012 presidential election that should drive not just higher sentiment but also better economics leading to mar-ket re-rating. However, we believe the market will be ranged bound in the near term as there lacks new catalysts to move the market upward substantially. On the technology front, although concerns on supply chain bottlenecks have sub-sided, the rise in NT dollar so far in the 2Q11 would put downward pressure on corporates’ margin. As such, we remain very selective on the tech sector after its recent rebound. Petrochemical, which is another relatively bigger sector, would also face with downward pressure due to margin contraction for the quarter. On the banking front, the catalysts would be more friendly policies on the cross strait front. It has already been reported that FSC has passed regulations to allow Taiwan banks’ offshore banking unit and overseas branches to do RMB business. This will become effective after approval from Executive Yuan, which is expected to be in June. It should improve Taiwan banks’ competitiveness to serve the Taiwan businesses in China. However, the existing core business does not give us a lot of excitement near term relative to its valuation. Based on past history, market may tend to focus more on high dividend yield stocks in the upcoming months.

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Region Index Currency 2010 – 2011 2009 – 2010 2008 – 2009 2007 – 2008 2006 – 2007

Thailand SET Index THB +48.7% +39.8% -29.0% +17.3% +8.6%

Thailand MSCI Thailand THB +45.0% +36.9% -29.3% +20.5% +10.5% Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no indication for future performance (per 31 May).

Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 11

Thailand Liquidity remains high, owing to captive local institutional funds and limited investment choices for Thai individuals.The bond market offers attractive long term, borrowingrates for quality companies, owing to limited investmentchoices for local insurance funds.

Review The SET ended May down 1.8%, bringing the total YTD per-formance to 4.0%. Positive catalysts and newsflow dried up,and economic momentum was negative, following the Japanearthquake and its impact through the supply chain. The cur-rency was flat for the month.

Foreign investors were net sellers for 12 out of 18 trading days.Retail investors became net buyers for the first time since Jan2011.

April 2011 data shows that external demand has slowed, butdomestic demand remains strong. Agricultural incomes are stillfirm. May headline inflation rose to 4.2% y/y. There is risk thatthe Bank of Thailand might raise rates more than expected.Current rates are 2.75%.

The best performing sectors in the MSCI Thailand index wereUtilities (+9.8%) and Telecom (+4.9%). Worst performers wereConsumer Discretionary (-6.3%) and Energy (-4.5%).

Outlook Political risk is causing a PE compression. We are comfort-able with the market, in terms of valuation. We have tweaked the P/E ratio for the end of 2011 to be more mod-est, at 15x. We expect strong earnings growth- as high as 20%. Imminent elections is the single biggest factor in the market in the near term. This might result in the incumbent gov-ernment winning another term, which would support a positive sentiment. The incumbent and its partners won 4 out of 5 seats in by-elections held in December. We prefer domestic demand players over exporters, owing to government stimulus spending, especially in the build-up to elections, and global downside risks to export demand. We are trimming our overweight in a basket of mid-cap rural expenditure plays. We favour a basket trade of small-cap developers on continued mass-market property demand. We remain overweight banks. For large cap defensives, we are neutral on Telecom. For ultra-defensives, we favour Utilities (EG Comp, 8x PE, 5% yield with full fuel and fund-ing cost pass-through). Consensus earnings growth remained 19%+ for 2011 (from end-2010). We expect a P/E multiple expansion to 15 (from 14x as of end- March 2011).

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Market.Focus.Asia June 2011 Page 12

Disclaimer This brochure is based on observations of HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited, which is 100% part of the HSBC Group. The document should be solely used as a marketing instrument and shall neither be regarded as an offer nor as an solicitation or invitation to buy or subscribe for an financial instru-ment nor as an investment advice or recommendation nor as an independent financial analysis. This brochure is no substitute for individual professional advice through your local bank This brochure is designated only for the use of persons permanently domiciled in the Federal Republic of Germany. It is explicitly not addressed to persons in other countries / jurisdictions, esp. US-Persons, and must not be distributed in other countries / jurisdictions. Past per-formances, simulations or outlooks are no reliable indicator for future performance. Information given in this brochure has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but which we do not have independently verified and therefore we do not accept any responsibility as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions stated in this brochure are those of HSBC Global Asset Manage-ment (Hong Kong) Limited and are subject to future changes which do not have to be published. If you would like to get further infor-mation please visit our website www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/de

Published by: HSBC Global Asset Management (Deutschland) GmbH, Königsallee 21/23, 40212 Düsseldorf, Germany 15 June 2011 Contact Institutional Investors / Professional Advisors Tel.: +49 (0)211 910 47 84 eJunel: [email protected]