Mexico Presentation At WWEMA (April 21, 2011)
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Transcript of Mexico Presentation At WWEMA (April 21, 2011)
Wastewater Situation and Opportunities in Mexico 2011
Vincent LencioniWWEMA Washington ForumApril 21, 2011
LGA Water Focus 15+ Years working with Wisconsin companies with products for
Mexico public and private water sector Market Analysis, Intermediary and Client Searches
3 years of formal & extensive regional water focus Quarterly Mexico Water Report Development of Mexican Water Intermediary contacts
Distributors, Reps, Integrators, EPCs, Consultants Winners of Awards, Participants in Bids
Interaction with Mexican federal and local water officials and intermediaries for early project information
Monthly compilation & review of water bids & awards WWEMA Presentation, Global Committee, Latin America assistance Development of AWWA Manufacturers Committee, Mexico City Various presentations on Mexico water sector in the US & Mexico
Outline
I. Mexico Economic OverviewII. Mexico Water ChallengesIII. Wastewater StandardsIV. Municipal Wastewater PlantsV. Industrial Wastewater PlantsVI. Wastewater OpportunitiesVII. AnnexVIII. Presentation Sources
I. Mexico/Latam Economic Growth
I. Mexico Misconceptions
Latin America is insignificant vs.Asia & US markets US Market: Latam: 36%; Mexico/Brazil > 25%
Mexico = 8-10% of US GDP and in general US Market World Economies: Brazil #8; Mexico #15
Mexico fell badly (2009), still on its knees Mfg GDP since 2007: Up 2%; up 10% in 2010 GDP since 2007: Up 3.5%; 2011-12: Up 9%
Brazil is much more dynamic/important than Mexico Brazil GDP: 2x Mexico BUT Brazil Imports < Mexico US Export Volumes and % of Total Exports (2010)
Brazil = $558 Million; Mexico = over $2 Billion & 10% of total
I. US Exports to Mexico(Billion US) TOTAL EXPORTS % INCREASE
2008 2009 2010 2009 2010
All Products 151.2 128.9 163.3 -14.7% 26.7%
Elec Prods 24.9 23.8 31.5 -4.4% 32.2%
Inds Prods 22.1 20.6 24.8 -6.8% 20.3%
Vehicles 14.0 10.1 14.5 -27.9% 43.8%
Fuel/Oil 11.1 7.7 14.2 -30.6% 84.8%
Plastics 10.7 9.4 11.4 -12.1% 22.1%
Chemicals 5.1 4.4 5.0 -13.7% 13.6%
Instruments 4.5 4.6 4.4 2.2% -3.9%
Paper 3.0 2.9 3.3 -3.3% 13.3%
Iron/Steel 3.1 2.5 3.1 -19.4% 21.8%
*2009 Crisis; 2010 Full Recovery *Mexican imports & exports up 35%
I. Key Mexican Import Indicators
Imports from US: Mexico vs BRIC Total US Imports: BRIC 11.4%; Mexico 12.4% US Import Increase: BRIC 33%; Mexico 32%
Intermediary Products in Full Recovery Capital Goods: 2006 figures; 2007 figures at year end
Mexico Purchasing Power Up Favorable, Appreciating Peso Exchange Rate
Government Spending Positives Pemex Income Up = 1/3 federal spending Mexican budget & indicators = healthier than US
And the 800 pound Gorilla in the Room…..
I. Mexican Insecurity and Business
Insecurity Situation Govt vs Cartel struggle
Right but tough fight Historic US cooperation Military & Police roles
Cartel vs Cartel struggle Drugs vs Crime (Zetas)
Victim Realities 35,000 murders since 2008 Over 90% = Police or Cartels
Culture + Taxes = Impunity Crime, Kidnapping, Murders
North vs. South Blurr Expanding to other areas
Business Perspective Regional Dynamic
North vs Rest; 3 Major Cities Foreigners not targeted
Kidnappings nor Murders New companies staying away;
already in Mexico are growing (Control Risks Latin America)
Maquiladora mfging up Volkswagon, BMW, WalMart
US Travel Advisory Context US government motherly role
Murders per capita reality See Following Table
I. Murders per Capita Context (2010)
50 WORST LATIN AMERICA COUNTRIES (ABOVE MEXICO), MEXICAN AND US STATES
HONDURAS 77 Oaxaca 21 New Mexico 8.7 Oklahoma 6.2Chihuahua* 74 Sonora* 20 Mexico City 8 Nuevo Leon# 6SALVADOR 70 Morelos 19 Guanajuato 8 Tabasco 6Durango* 60 MEXICO 18 Jalisco 8 Illinois 6VENEZUELA 48 Michoacan 18 Maryland 7.7 Georgia 5.8Sinaloa* 47 Nayarit 15 Tennessee 7.3 Florida 5.5Guerrero 46 Quintana Roo 13 Puebla 7 Arziona 5.4T&TOBAGO 37 Louisiana 11.8 Alabama 6.9 Texas 5.4COLOMBIA 32 Chiapas 10 Mississippi 6.4 California 5.3BRAZIL 25 Coahuila# 9 Missouri 6.4 Pennsylv. 5.2Wash D.C. 24 Mexico(State) 9 Michigan 6.3 Queretaro 5Baja Calif* 24 Tamaulipas# 9 So Carolina 6.3Puerto Rico 22.6 Colima 9 Arkansas 6.2
1. Mexico better than Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, & Central America
2. Mexico business travel locations (underlined) similar to US locations
3. Problems in Northwest Mexico states(*) spike Mexico average badly; Northeast Texas border area states (#) much better than portrayed.
II. Mexico Water Overview
II. Mexico Water Issues & Challenges
1. Geographical Challenges: North/Central vs South dynamic; Altitude, precipitation, population, urban growth issues
2. Overexploited aquifers: 15% - all in the North/Central
3. Per Capita Water: 18,000 m3 (1950) to 4,400 m3 (2010)
4. Potable/Sewerage Coverage: Goals ok, rural low (79%/63%)
5. Metering: Domestic (“obligatory”, < 2/3) vs Industrial (0%)
6. Use of Water: 80% Agriculture (40% in US) = only 2% revenue
7. Delivery Systems: 50% loss in Potable and Agriculture Use
8. Wastewater Treatment: < 40% Municipal; < 20% Industrial
Increased Irrigation technology
River Basin auto administrationAll rivers % lakes without trash
All treated water reused Contamination sources under
control
Efficient regional orderAll industrial water
treated
Flood zones without habitations
Urban suburbs connected to the
network
Disaster alert systems and preventionAll rural areas with potable water
Operating organisms functioning efficiently
River Basin Equilibrium
Universal WaterCoverage
Habitable areas free from floods
100% Clean Rivers
All municipal water treated
II. 2030 Water PrioritiesII. 2030 Water Priorities
II. Mexico Water Goals: 2012 & 2012
5 Year Plan (2007-2012) Potable water coverage: 92%
Current: 91% Sanitary/sewer coverage: 88%
Current: 87% Wastewater treatment: 60%
Current: 40% (may be) Rehabilitate 500 Dams
Current: 420; 750 by 2030 8% increase: utility efficiency Improve Water Productivity in
the Agricultural Sector Better flood prevention actions
2030 Water Agenda By 2016: all major urban
areas free from risk of flood By 2015, All Irrigation
technified, 100% water reuse 2024: Complete rural potable
water and sewage access 2025: All Industrial and
Municipal wastewater treated
2030: All aquifers and contamination in balance
From 64th in water infrastructure to between Panama (46) & Chile (35).
I. Municipal Treatment Evolution (2012 Goal and Historical Figures)
Year 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012
Collected* 200 205 207 208 209 2010 220
Treated* 46 71.8 79.3 83.6 88.1 91.2 132
Increase* 4.9 7.3 4.9 4.3 4.5 3.1 40.8
% Treated 23.0% 35.0% 38.3% 40.2% 42.1% 43.4%# 60%
# = 2010 Latin America Green City Index Average 52% vs Mexico 43.4%
* = Collected, Treated, Increase = m3 per second; Increase = year to year treated
III. Wastewater Standards
III. Mexican Wastewater Regulations Types of Regulations
By where water goes: NOM 001: Federal bodies
Rivers, Lakes, Coasts All towns > 2500 inhabs
(2600+) & all companies NOM 002: Municipal
Sewer/Drainage System
Discharge “Rights” Fees If NOM 001: Federal Fees If NOM 002: Local Fees
By Reuse NOM 003 = Water Reuse NOM 004 = Sludge/Mud
System/Function Measures metals, oils,
tempurature, nitrogen BOD (DBO) = Urban COD (DQO) = Industrial TSS (SST) = Both
Based on post-treatment use: Agriculture, Public Use, Fauna
Requirements vary by use
Sampling: Frequency, Self Enforcing
No Metering: 2011 Pilot Projects
III. NOM 001: Discharges into Federal Bodies
M.A. = Monthly Average; D.A. = Daily Average(1) Instantaneous(2) Simple sample weighted average(3) Absent as per the Test Method defined in the NMX-AA-006.
As of 2010, all companies & municipalites with 2500+ (3200 total) supposed to be compliant; Reality is much, much less, numbers unclear
III. NOM 001 (continued)
(*) Measured in full.D.A. = Daily Average M.A.= Monthly Average NA = Not applicable(A) (B) and (C): Receiving Body type according to Government Service Charges
Law.
III. NOM 002: Discharges into Municipal Systems
As of 2010, all companies are supposed to be compliant
III. Wastewater Standards: III. Wastewater Standards: US vs MexicoUS vs Mexico
Significant differences between systems:Standards Levels & Materials TestedSamplying FrequenciesMetering RequirementsPreTreatment vs PostTreatmentViable Regulations & Enforcement
Local vs State vs Federal
Fines, Civil & Penal Liabilities, Closures
IV. Municipal Wastewater Plants
IV. Municipal Plants - Annual
2010: How Much/Where 43.4% Waste Treated
200% increase since 1992 100% Increase since 2000
Treatment capacity need: 196m3 = 71m3 deficit
25% capacity increase since 2006
Flow Increase: 5% annual Treatment Areas
North > 50% treatment Center: 33% treatment 48% Treatment in Río
Bravo/Lerma Basins
IV. Municipal Plants by State (2009)
IV. State Treatment Good & Bad: Refining Coverage & More Basic Needs Good: 10 States > 2/3
100%: Nuevo Leon, Baja California, Aguascalientes
75-65%: Guerrero, Nayarit, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, QR, Tamaulipas, Durango
Evolutions (2003-2010) Aguascalientes: 77 to 100% Baja California: 72 to 100% Chihuahua: 32 to 72% San Luis Potosi: 22 to 63% Tamaulipas: 37 to 65% Sinaloa: 40 to 69.4%
Positive but Reversals Quintana Roo: 73 to 69% Nayarit: 82.6% to 70.3%
Bad: < 25% wastewater treatment coverage < 10%: Yucatan,
Campeche, Hidalgo 14.4% Mexico City 20-15%: Zacatecas,
Tabasco, Morelos, Chiapas 22.2% State of Mexico 24.1% Jalisco
IV. State Wastewater: Good/BadIV. State Wastewater: Good/Bad Which States are doing better than others
BOD (Oxygen Demand: Urban wastewater) Bad (> 30*): DF, Mexico, Guanajuato, Tlaxcala Good: Jalisco, NL, Tamps, VC, AGS, CHI, BC
COD (Chemicals: Industrial wastewater) Bad (> 40*): DF, Mexico, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Baja California,
Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Puebla, Tlaxcala Good: Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, Tamaulipas, Veracruz
TSS (Suspended Solids: Both, more urban) Bad (> 150*) only Hidalgo = result of DF/Mexico Wastewater
Overall Good: Campeche, Coahuila, Colima, Chiapas, Durango, Guerrero, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí , Sinaloa Sonora ,Tabasco and Yucatan.
* Miligrams per liter
IV. Major Urban Wastewater: Projects, Coverage, Future Trends Mexico City
Atotonilco: 2013; Cost: $785 Million US El Caracol: 2014; Cost: $130 Million US
Area Coverage: < 15% in 2011; 40-60% in 2013/2014 Capacity: 26m3 dry season; 38m3 wet season.
Guadalajara Agua Prieta: 2012; Cost: $280 Million US El Ahogado: 2012: Cost: $150 Million US
Area Coverage: < 25% in 2011; 100% in 2012 Capacity: 11m3; ability to treat 10,000 liters/second each.
Monterrey No Major Projects but has 100% Coverage
Medium Size/2nd Tier Cities: Next/Current Targets 8 Cities: 2.5 to 1 million; 20 Cities > 750,000; 30 Cities > 500,000;
45 Cities > 250,000; Over 60 Cities > 100,000 population.
Sludge Activated46.43%
Stabilizing Ponds15.59%
Advance Primary11.14%
Others 8.63%
Aeration Ponds8.11%
Biological Filters5.37%
Dual 4.74%
IV. Type of Municipal Plants IV. Type of Municipal Plants (2009 = 2029 plants)(2009 = 2029 plants)
IV. Public Treatment Challenges
Cons – Concerns but Limited Federal Role Few Sticks & Carrots Bid Processes Bad Corruption, 3 Year
Municipal Elections Rains, Altitude, Urban Societal Acceptance and
Low Water Reuse (<10%) Statistics: probably worse Inadequate monitoring
Pros – Improving Legal Changes on Way Prosanear = 173 cities Some positive societal and
municipal gov`t signs Northern State Positives Coverage is up & growing APAZU Funding for
municipal plants: 64% Funding and Financing
supposedly sufficient – see next slide
IV. Impact of Funding Issues 2011 Total Mexico Water Budget
$6 Billon US = 2x Conagua budget Sources: Federal (Conagua) 49%;
State 18.5%; Local 12%; Other (EPA) 20.5%
2011 Conagua Water Budget Total: 36.8 Billion pesos ($3 Billon US)
States: 62%; Federal Spending 38% Urban: 80%; Rura:l 20%
Distribution: 48% Projects; 33% Admn; 19% HidroAgriculture
Projects: 39% Potable; 49% Drainage; 12% Treatment
Treatment = $360 million US Growth Up, slowed by economic crisis:
Since 2002 250%; Since 2007: 69% 2011: 5.5%; 2010: 14%; 2008: 22% Hidroagriculture: 2008: 46%; 2011: 4%;
Local vs Federal Projects Municipal: 95%
64% APAZU Matching Funding Federal: Large Projects Only
Funding vs Finance Argument “Funding Sufficient”: Conagua “Financing Available” Fonadin Still BOT vs Traditional Bid Debate
Payment, Local Government concerns Supposedly $2 Billion US: 2008-2012
Water Prices Domestic: Low (graph) Not close to
costs Industrial: higher but still low Agriculture: almost free
80% total use < 2% revenues Billing vs Collected (See Graph)
IV. World Domestic Water PricesIV. World Domestic Water Prices
46.44
31.7
28.67
24.2
20.98
20.4
2.76
0 20 40 60
Price (pesos/m3)
Mexico City/Federal District = 25 cents
Lisbon
Madrid
Los Angeles
Washington D.C.
Istanbul
London
(11 pesos:$1 USD), 2008 prices
IV. Water Revenue ProblemsIV. Water Revenue Problems
Ejercido = Spent; Recaudado = Revenue
V. Industrial Wastewater Plants
V. Industrial Plants by State (2009)
Operating Capacity & Treatment %: Very low, even in industrial states
Total Treatment: 190m3 flow p/s with 36.7m3 p/s treated = 19.3%
Total BOD: 6.95 million tons with 1.33 million tons treated = 19.1%
2009 Operating Capacity: 50% (Installed: 72.5m3; Treated: 36.7m3)
V. Industrial Wastewater Treated: Not good but better than seems
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
(m3/s)
Up 66% since 1999
Industrial Wastewater since 1997: Flow up 195% (64.5 to 190m3 p/s) Treated amount up 592% (5.3 to 36.7m3 p/s) Wastewater/BOD Treatment up 137.5% compared to flow (8% to 19%)
V. Industrial Plants by Type
2010 Total Industrial Plants: 2186 (100%) Primary: 731 (33.4%)
Adjusting PH levels & removing materials > .1mm > 50% in Veracruz & Chiapas: Basic Treatment
Secondary: 1193 (54.6%) Removing colloidal & dissolved organice materials 57% in 4 states: Mexico, Veracruz, N.L., Hidalgo
Tertiary: 88 (4%) Removing dissolved materials, driven by incentives 32 Mexico City/State of Mexico; up 25 a year
Other: 174 (8%)
V. Industrial Treatment Challenges
Cons – Serious but... Funding for Enforcement Federal: Carrot/Incentives
Growing but still limited Federal: Stick/Enforcement
Staff, Metering concerns Few Fines, Closures
Local: Rules & Enforcement “Generic Vodka”
Local: Politics/Corruption Limited Federal Role
Companies: Price-based, not reach for best or right solutions
Plants: 53% up since 2000 = half of Municipal Increase (99%)
Pros – Some good signs Conagua Commitment Up Municipal need for revenue Water Reuse up (Over 5 Bm3) Industrial Water Prices Up Fines & Permits
Costs and enforcement up Targeting Problem Industries
Prosanear Program Growing Society & Tracking Responses Funding & Legal Reform Up New Metering Pilot Programs
Writing on the Wall: When not if companies must comply.
VI. Wastewater Opportunities
VI. Municipal Opportunities Plants – New & Rehabilitation
2011 New: 50 Plants, another 50 expected: Rehab: 43% Plants ($225 million) 2012 - Should be equal or better than 2011 – Year before Presidential Elections 2013 – New Presidential Administration: considerable slow down / adjustments
“In Vogue” Treatment Processes / Tendencies 90% of Municipal Treatment in six categories:
Sludge = 46% treatment (546 Plants); Stabilization Ponds = 16% treatment (707 Plants); Advanced Primary = 10% treatment (16 Plants); Aerated Ponds = 8% treatment (32 Plants); Dual Plants (10) & Biological Filters (97) = 10% treatment
Plants with significant numbers but low treatment: RAFA/WASB (162), Wetlands (160) New Plants and Plant Growth (2008 to 2009)
1. Biological Filters (55, up 100%+); 2. Aerated Ponds (up 33%); 3. Sludge (92, up 20%); 4. Wetlands (26, Up 20%)
Info on state preferences for treatment technology (see LGA Consulting website) Problem – Physical/Chemical used over Biological – driven by upfront costs
Medium Size/2nd Tier Cities: Next/Current Targets 8 Cities: 2.5 to 1 million; 20 Cities > 750,000; 30 Cities > 500,000; 45 Cities
> 250,000; Over 60 Cities > 100,000 population.
VII. Mexico Wastewater Projects 2011-2012
New ($850 Million) Lake Xochimilco (3) Lake Valsequillo (4)
Rehab ($400 Million+) Lake Chapala (7) Chihuahua (40) Colima (18) Jalisco (28) Sinaloa (20) Tlaxcala (20) Veracruz (18) Tabasco (20)
Feasibility Studies for Wastewater Plants (13) Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz,
Mexico City, Puebla, State of Mexico, Colima, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala, Sonora, Yucatan, Michoacan, Hidalgo
Global Water Intelligence (9) Valle del Bravo, Valley of
Mexico, Caborca, El Conejo, El Zapotillo, Bahia de Banderas, Popotla, Tijuana, Monterrey VI
VI. Municipal Wastewater Sector Market Size
Estimated size as ranges of below models: $220-546 Million (Median: $357 Million) From 2011 Conagua Budget Elements
From Total 2011 Mexico Water Budget Conagua Budget: 49% Conagua, 51% others; Therefore x 1.5-2 = Total Market Size Conagua Projects = 48% ($1.53 Billion); 12% of Projects = “Saneamiento”: $183 Million Conagua Wastewater = 80% Saneamiento or $146 Million Total Municipal Wastewater (WW) Market (1.5-2x) $220-293 Million
From 2011 Saneamiento Budget Concept Saneamiento $189.8 Million x 80% = $152 million US Total Municipal WW Market (1.5-2x) = $228-300 Million
From 2011 Specific Conagua Wastewater-related Concepts 100% (S218) + 12% (K007+S074+S075) = $255 million Total Municipal WW Market (1.5-2x) = $382-500 Million
From 2010 US Embassy Study on Mexico Water & Wastewater Imports $3.922 Billion; 66-80% Municipal = $2.9 Billion; 12% Saneamiento: $350 Million; 80% = $280 Million Total Municipal WW Market = $280 Million
From 2008 Latin America Municipal Wastewater Equipment Study (Frost & Sullivan) Latin America Municipal Water: 2008: $43.1 Billon; Mexico = 27.5% or $11.85 Billion Total Municipal WW Market (See Formula Above: 48% x 12% x 80%) = $546 Million
VI. Problems for NAFTA Companies VI. Problems for NAFTA Companies Selling to Mexican GovernmentSelling to Mexican Government
National Content Regulations New (2010), Higher
(65%), enforcement up National Bid Issues NAFTA Problems US/Canada vs Mexico
Result: Govt Bid Opportunities down Mexico hypocritical?
Licitation Problems Compranet System
Decisions already made
Opening/Closing dates Can´t find winners? Low amounts
reported vs. high amounts budgeted
Where are projects? Lack of Transparency Local vs Conagua issue
VI. Channel Realities
Private Sector – Full Range of Options (B2B) Pros & Cons: Distributor vs Rep vs Direct Private Sector Intermediaries work in Public Sector?
Public Sector – Requirement despite NAFTA National Bid Rules = Sales: Distributor or Subsidiary
99% of Bids National = Must sell through Mexican entity National Content Rules = 55% now; 65% in 2012
Increased need to work through Mexican integrators/EPCs Local Bid (95%) Selling Environment
Early bid knowledge, answering bid, servicing Sale will often be based on who you know Ability to steer clear of corruption problems
VI. Industrial Opportunities- Commercial & Industrial – Traditional Wastewater
- Types of Plants & Technologies- Secondary Strong - Activated Sludge, Aeration Lagoons, Extended Aeration - Tertiary low but growing (2009: 66 Plants; 2010: 88 Plants = 25 a year?) - New vs. Refurbished (2011: over $225 million US)
- Industry Water Reuse & Savings- Water reclamation, water capturing systems more important with industrial water
price increases
- Infrastructure Projects- Resorts: Hotels and Restaurants, Residential and Golf Courses
- 100 New plants (2011-2014)- Commercial: Malls, Industrial Parks, Hospitals, Restaurants, Hotels
- States & Cities with best enforcement reputations- D.F., Monterrey, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, AGS, Queretaro- 173 Cities participating in PROSANEAR Program
- Products: Domestic vs Imported (See Annex Sheet)
VI. VI. Industrial Sectors – Problems Sectors – Problems
Top Priorities, heaviest polluters (2030)
High Frequency & Flow Priorities
1. Sugar – Requires regular, on-going investments eventhough meeting standards.
1. Pork / Agriculture / Aquaculture – Target area for enforcement, Conagua investment increases. Problems worse than expected
2. Paper - $70 million US* - Highly regulated, improvedMfging processes, maintenance
2. Textile / Clothing / Leather – $70 million US*; many medium & small producerswho are not compliant
3. Metalworking / Automotive – Large & Growing, Tier 1 & 2 issues, OEM compliant
3. Petroleum / Petrochemical (Pemex) – Increasing investments in wastewater
4. Food & Beverage / Dairy - $90 million US*
4. Chemicals / Pharmaceuticals / Plastics - $120 million US*
* = Expected Investment 2011-2012 (US Embassy, Mexico City)
VI. Industrial Wastewater Market Estimated Size as ranges of below models: $110-$350 Million (Median: $285 Million)
A. From 2005 Mexico Industrial Wastewater Equipment Study (US Embassy)$370M - Industrial Wastewater Equipment Only: 2005: $325 Million; 2006: $346 Million Pre-Economic Crisis Numbers could come close to approximating current market; 40% Large vs 60% Small/MediumTotal Industrial Wastewater (WW) Market: $350 Million
B. From Total Mexico Water & Wastewater Imports (2010) (US Embassy) Imports: $3.314B x Equipment (88%) x Industrial (20%) = $593 Million Estimated Wastewater %: LOW (33%): $221 Million; MEDIUM (50%): $336 Million; HIGH (66%): $445 MillionTotal Industrial WW Market: $336 Million (5% Annual Growth figure for future estimates).
C. From 2011 Conagua Budget (with Industrial = 50% of Municipal)* Total Market Municipal Wastewater Treatment = $220-293 Million; Industrial = 50% orTotal Industrial WW Market: $110-150 Million
D. From 2010 Latin America Industrial Wastewater Equipment (Frost & Sullivan)Latam: 2011: $1.12 Billion; 2012: $1.17 Billion; 2014: $1.27 Billion Mexico: (millions US$) 2011 2012 2014
Low (16.5%) 185 195 210 Low-Medium (25%) 280 295 320 Medium (33.3%) 375 390 425
Total Industrial WW Market: $280-375 Million________________________________________________________________________________
Estimated Size of both Industrial & Municipal Wastewater Markets > $500 Million
VI. Tips for Mexico Opportunities Get in/stay in, despite insecurity concerns
Demand Up: Economic Growth & Funding Up Water Sector: 70% Imported, 2/3 from the US Municipal: 2011 and 2012 up; 2013 down Industrial: Locate proactive states/cities: target companies
Find in-country sales support….. Ideally: Sales Staff or Rep + Integrators Distributors – Viable in Private, not in Public
…but don`t rely solely on intemediaries for market analysis or business development
Bring financing/credit plan: Private > Public
LGA Contact Information
Vince Lencioni, General Manager
Email: [email protected]: www.lgaconsulting.com
Mexico Water Report Electronic Access: http://www.lgaconsulting.com/water/report.html
Mexico City Toll Free Number in the US: 1-888-750-0988; or 011-52-555-378-3840 or 90
VII. Annex
VII. Domestic vs International Products Imported Product Preference Both Domestic Product Preference
GIS & SCADA Analyzers & Manometers
Contractors & Construction
Automation & Controls Equipment Filtration Equipmt & Products
Pipe/Water Distribution Equipment
Wastewater –Reuse Equipment Treatment Plant Systems
Sludge Handling Systems
Treatment Plant Systems Tanks Gates & Flumes
Data Management Systems* Leak Detection Metal Fabrication
CIS & Meters Laboratory & Sampling Products
Chemical Feed Equipment
Well Drilling/Systems Process Equipment Aerators, Diffusers
Corrosion & Cathodic Protection/Control Equipmt
Chemicals Compressors & Blowers
Chlorine
Desalination Equipment Disinfection Systems Coating & Lining
Leak Detection Consulting* Sewer/Collection Systems & Equipment
Laboratory & Sampling Equipment Pumps & Valves Traditional Treatment Options
Rain Water Reclamation Storm/rain drainage Solutions
VII. Water Demand by Sector (2020)
Km3/year (m3/s)
National Agriculture Industry Public Other Difference Supply 2020-1997
3180 2640 95 381 64 856
100% 83% 3% 12% 2% 27%
CONAGUA 2010: 77% Agriculture, 12% Public, 9% Industrial.
VII. Mexican Domestic & Industrial Water Prices
VII. Treatment by Basin AnalysisNo.
Water Basin Number of Plants in
Operation
Installed Capacity (m3/s)
Water Treated (m3/s)
Lerma = 25% of plants; Rio Bravo = 25% of Installed Capacity and Water Treated; using 75% of Installed Capacity, Need a lot more.
VII. Treatment by Basin AnalysisMunicipal wastewater treated by 13
River Basins (Total = 100%):
1.- Rio Bravo/Northern Border 26.5%2.- Lerma-Santiago-Pacífic 21.5% 3.- Pacific North 8.0%4.- Valley of Mexico 7.4%5.- Penisula of Baja California 7.3%6.- Balsas 6.5%7.- Central Northern Basins 4.8%8.- Northeast 4.0%9.- Center Gulf 3.7%10.- Southern Border 3.1%11.- Gulf North 2.7%12.- Pacific South 2.3%13.- Península of Yucatan 2.0%
Conclusions Majority of Treatment
in North (#1,3,5,7,8) Over 50% of all treatment
Significant Treatment in Center (#2,4,6)
About 1/3 of rest
Insignificant treatment in south/gulf areas
Less need for water, less industry and population
VII. Municipal Treatment Plants by Capacity (2010)
VII. Municipal Wastewater Treatment by State Analysis
Majority of Plants in dry, northern states
1. Durango (167, 10%)
2. Sinaloa (136)
3. Chihuahua (119) Most important states:
fewer plants State of Mexico (105) Jalisco (96) Nuevo Leon (61)
Installed Capacity1. Nuevo Leon (12%)
2. Chihuahua (8%)
3. State of Mexico
4. Baja California
5. Federal District Treated Water
1. Nuevo Leon (14%)
2. Chihuahua (7%)
3. Baja California
4. State of Mexico
VIII. Presentation Sources American Chamber of Commerce, Mexico – Charting the
Economy; 2nd Quarter/2011 Banco de México, Índice de volumen de la producción industrial,
Series de tendencias. Business Monitor International, Latin America Monitor, May 2011
Editions Comisión Nacional de Agua (CONAGUA): Presupuesto Federal
de Egresos (2009, 2010, 2011) Comisión Nacional de Agua (CONAGUA): Situación del Subsector del
Agua y Saneamiento 2009 Comisión Nacional de Agua (CONAGUA): Situación del Subsector del
Agua y Saneamiento 2010 Comisión Nacional de Agua (CONAGUA): Estadísticas del Agua 2011 Economy Watch: Economic Statics & Economic Indicators Data Base
for 2012. Global Trade Information Services, US Export Statistics – United
States Exports To Mexico; United States Exports to Brazil, March 2011.
VIII. Presentation Sources Gobierno Federal Mexicana, Ley Federal De Derechos, 2010 Interviews with different Conagua and EPA officials. Media Analytics, Global Water Intelligence, January and February 2011
editions Semarnat, Normas Oficiales Mexicanas: NOM 001-1996, 002-1996,
003-1997, 2009 Semarnat, Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM 004-2002, 2002. U.S. Commercial Service Report: Mexico Equipment and Services for
Upgrading Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants. September 2010. U.S. Commercial Service Report: Mexico Water and Wastewater
Equipment and Services Industry. September 2010. Wikipedia, List of countries by international homicide rate 2010;
US State source: http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm Mexico State source: http://www.prominix.com/sblock/admin/images/Mexico%20Crime%20Stats%202010.pdf