Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends For January 2014

Greater

Metro Atlanta

Market

125,000 Homes Sold In 2006. 60,000 Homes Sold in 2010.

2013 Closings 1.3% Behind 2012.

0

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40000

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100000

120000

140000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Metro Atlanta Homes Sold

December Closings Down 2.5% Compared To November Closings

Dec. 2013 Closings Down 6.9% Compared To Dec. 2012 Closings

2013 Annual Closings Down 1.3% Compared To 2012 Closings

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1000

2000

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2012

2013

Metro Atlanta 2013 Closings

697

1246

1408

251

44 60

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

< $100K $100K-

$200K

$200K-

$500K

$500K-$1

mil

$1 mil - $2

Mil

$2 Mil +

Metro Atlanta Closings – December 2013 (Number Of Transactions)

-43.8%

-6.9%

15.0%19.0%

4.8%

-14.3%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

< $100K $100K-

$200K

$200K-

$500K

$500K-$1

mil

$1 mil - $2

Mil

$2 Mil +

Metro Atlanta Closings

Dec. 2013 Compared To Nov. 2013

-24.6%

-0.3%

17.8%

28.1%

51.7%

-45.5%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

< $100K $100K-

$200K

$200K-

$500K

$500K-$1

mil

$1 mil - $2

Mil

$2 Mil +

Metro Atlanta Closings

Dec. 2013 Compared To Dec. 2012

Listed Inventory December 2011 - December 2013

Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta

Inventory Up 11% from Dec. 2012, Down 34% from Dec. 2011 -2500

2500

7500

12500

17500

22500

27500 Inventory Up

15% From

February 2013

16.4

50.2

10.6

6.4

3.83

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

< $100K $100K-

$200K

$200K-

$500K

$500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2

Mil

$2 Mil +

Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (Based On Closed Sales)

Overall “Months Of Inventory” Is 4.6 Months

6 Months Supply Is Considered A Normal Market

ASP Up 9.8% From Last Month & Up 19% From Last Dec.

$184$201

$217$233

$241$249 $255

$240$225 $231 $224

$246

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50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Metro Atlanta 2013 Average Sale Prices

Average Sales Price Increasing From Bottom Of 2011

$261 $268

$209

$189 $190$176 $183

$229

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Metro Atlanta Average Annual Sale Prices

Metro Atlanta Foreclosure Comparisons (Data by RealValuator)

Baby Boomers Are #1 Buyer Segment

Chart Shows Index Results January 2010 Through October 2013

Home Values Up 37% From Bottom of March 2012 – But Leveling.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

July

Oct

Jan

Apr

July

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

ober

Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta (October 2013 Results - Reported December 2013)

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20

40

60

80

100

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1995

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2010

2011

2012

2013

Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta

• Peak was July 2007. Current Home Values Remain Below The

Normal Trend Line. But Prices Are Correcting!

Berkshire Hathaway

HomeServices

Georgia Properties

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30000

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60000

BHHS Market

2013 Annual Closings Vs. 2012 Annual Closings

• BHHS GP 2013 Closings Were Up 9.9% Compared To 2012.

• The Market Was Down 1.3% Compared To 2012.

BHHS GP

Outperforms

The Market

By 11.2%!

Information Provided By Trendgraphix.

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9000

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BHHS HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH

YTD Transactions – December 2013

FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent


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BHHS KW-AP HNR CB MB AFH SS

YTD Listing Sales – December 2013



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BHHS HNR KW-AP MB CB SS AFH

YTD Buyer Sales – December 2013



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3000

BHHS HNR KW-AP MB CB AFH SS

YTD Listing Inventory – December 2013


Economic &

Housing Trends

• Georgia Lost 325,000 Jobs In The Great Recession.

• 2012 Restarted Positive Job Growth Trend!

-250,000

-50,000-25,000

63,400 66,200 76,00093,100

-300000

-250000

-200000

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

More Jobs In Georgia! (Reports From UGA Terry College of Business/

Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center)

Major Group Moves

And More Coming …

Rustbelt To Sunbelt

4,944,939

7,377,951

8,256,323

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ARC 20-Cty Population

Forecast Population Growth 20-County Forecast Area

Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close

To Their Children & Grandchildren.

Source :Census Bureau

Total Population

Rank of Share

Under 20 20-64 65+ 25-39 45-59

Dallas 6,144,489 3 9 25 1 24

Atlanta 5,271,550 5 6 27 2 19

Phoenix 4,179,427 4 24 15 3 26

Denver 2,466,591 11 5 24 4 12

Riverside 4,081,371 1 27 22 5 27

Houston 5,629,127 2 10 26 6 21

Portland 2,174,631 19 4 19 7 7

Seattle 3,309,347 22 1 20 8 3

Sacramento 2,091,120 12 13 14 9 20

Washington 5,306,125 14 3 23 10 11

Los Angeles 12,875,587 6 17 18 11 23

San Diego 2,974,859 8 14 16 12 25

San Francisco 4,203,898 26 2 10 13 4

Orlando 2,032,496 18 15 8 14 22

Minneapolis 3,208,212 10 7 21 15 6

Chicago 9,522,879 7 16 17 16 18

New York 18,815,988 21 12 6 17 15

Boston 4,482,857 23 8 9 18 10

Cincinnati 2,134,864 9 19 13 19 14

Baltimore 2,668,056 17 11 11 20 9

Detroit 4,467,592 13 18 12 21 5

Philadelphia 5,827,962 16 21 5 22 13

St. Louis 2,802,282 15 20 7 23 8

Miami 5,413,212 24 26 3 24 17

Tampa 2,723,949 25 25 1 25 16

Cleveland 2,096,471 20 23 4 26 2

Pittsburgh 2,355,712 27 22 2 27 1

Metro Atlanta Has The:

•#2 Population Age 25-39

•#5 Population Under 20

Atlanta is 56% Cheaper To Buy!

Metro Atlanta Is 56% Better To Buy Than Rent

• New Household Formation Dropped From 1.2 Mil (2006) To 400,000 (2008)

• Growing To 1.2 Million In 2013. Lots Of Pent-Up Demand.

• 4 Million Students Per Year Graduate From College For Next 10 Years!

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1995-

2005

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015

U. S. Household Formation Trends Demand For 1st Time Buyers Will Be Strong!

Source: U.S. Census, JCHS Household Growth Projections, Goldman Sachs

Prices Improving and Mortgage Rates Rising. But Home Affordability Remains Historically Favorable.

207

187 187197 194

160 154146 141

116

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2012

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2014

National Housing Affordability Index (Combination of home prices and mortgage rates)

Average Rates Around 8%

4.9 4.94.9

4.4

3.83.9

5.0

4.4

5.1

3.5

5

4.8

4.4

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4.5

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5.5

Freddie Mac & Mortgage Bankers Association

30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast (December 2013)

2010 – 2014 Quarterly Averages

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Freddie Mac

MBA

Amount Of

Mortgage

3.5%

Mortgage

30-Year

Cost

5%

Mortgage

30-Year

Cost

8%

Mortgage

30-Year

Cost

$200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120

$300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360

$400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600

$500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480

$1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320

Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A

Significant Difference In Home Affordability

Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends For January 2014

Real Estate

Transcript of Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends For January 2014