ZubairFiza

MadihaSaher

Faizmeen

Methods of Sales Forecasting

HILTON PHARMACEUTICALS

Hilton Pharmaceuticals is a member of the Progressive Group of Companies.

Hilton Pharmaceuticals has emerged as Pakistan’s largest national pharmaceutical company.

Since its inception, Hilton Pharmaceuticals has mainly promoted research based pharmaceutical products.

Company History

EnflorArtemCravitMethycobalMyonalTransaminCeropheneLoxoninLevolac

Main Products

The sales managers decide about the efficient size of a sales force required to fulfill the sales target of a specific drug and its portfolio to reach out in the target market.

Understanding and evaluating the optimal reach (how many physicians to see) and frequency (how often to see them) for each individual physician, then in the end they decide about the number of sales force they require devoting their effort to the hospital accounts.

Sales Force

Business Manager

Deputy National

Sales Manager

South

Central A

Central B

North Area Sales Manager Sales Reps

Sales Structure

Regional

Sales Managers

• 5 Regional Sales Managers

Area Sales Managers

• 16 Area Sales Manager

Sales Perso

n

• 87 Sales Reps

One of the major reasons for Hilton Pharma’s success is its strong nation-wide distribution network; which ensures uninterrupted availability of Hilton Pharma products in all parts of the country.

Distribution Network

Sales Forecasting Technique

Hilton pharma starts all sales activity with a specific sales plan, this specific sales plan identifies their previous sales, areas where they went wrong and what their short and long term goals are going to be.

With this in mind they allocate a certain amount of capital towards the sales force that would form the forecast of the product range.

Sales Plan

Hilton believes in providing the highest selling product with the maximum attention

However it is important to understand whether the maturity of this product is sustainable and for how long

They also need to grasp whether the second best product will be able to provide them with higher revenue for the future, if so then they commit more towards their second best product.

Understanding Products & Their Life Cycle

In terms of lower level products forecasting they interrogate the possible flaws that could be a major reason for a decrease in sales.

Problem Identification

Another reason could be the aggressive sales strategy acquired by their competitor such as Getz, Bosche etc so they need to be up to terms with all our competitors as well.

Competitor Analysis

Finally they take the opinion of the sales force which is in the line of fire in terms of understanding the buyer needs and doctor’s satisfaction in prescribing their products.

Opinion of Sales Force

In the 7 years that they have worked the company has used a combination of 2 methods

Jury of Executive MethodSales Force Composite

Forecasting Method Used

It is the oldest approach used in companiesPanel of sales, marketing research, accounting, production, each member provides written of his forecast

Jury of Executive Methods

Forecast arrived at by combing sales persons estimates of expected sales. It helps to set sales quotas

Sales Force Composite

The Jury of executive opinion method along with the sales force composite is not only cost effective but it has also fetched them with great numbers and also instilled confidence amongst their sales force that the management involves them in the decision-making.

Advantages to the Company

In terms of integrating with other departments for sales forecasting the production manager for the department is the key as he would be responsible for the supply of the orders and the distribution channels

The sales forecasting also focuses on the environmental factors and seasonal problems that may be present.

Because of the large size of the pharmaceutical sales force, the organization, management, and measurement of effectiveness of the sales force are significant business challenges.

Management tasks are usually broken down into the areas of:

physician targeting, sales force size and structure, sales force optimization, call planning, and sales forces effectiveness.

Conclusions & Recommendations