Methodology at the Office for National Statistics
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Transcript of Methodology at the Office for National Statistics
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Gareth James([email protected])
Assistant Statistician
ONS
Methodology at the Office for National Statistics
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Talk Outline
• The Office for National Statistics
• My experiences at ONS
• Careers available at ONS, and how to apply
• Your questions
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National Statistics
• NS: Official (Government) Statistics produced independently, to high standards, to meet user requirements, etc.
• Statistics Commission to regulate and oversee
• Common standards with Europe: the EU, other National Statistics Institutes, etc.
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Government Statistical Service (GSS)
• Within 30 government departments and agencies, including:
HM Treasury Scottish Executive
Department of Trade & Industry (DTI) Cabinet Office
Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) Inland Revenue
HM Customs & Excise Department of Health (DOH)
Ministry of Defence (MOD) National Assembly for Wales
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Largest UK employer of statisticians - 800 nationally
• ONS, largest employer of statisticians in the GSS
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Office for National Statistics(ONS)
• A government agency, produces official and National Statistics about the UK
• Production and analysis of statistics on:– the economy, labour market – population, health, society
• Registrations
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Key ONS Products
• Retail Prices Index• Producer Price Index• Index of Production• GDP• Births, Marriages and
Deaths
• Population Census• Regional Statistics• Retail Sales Index• Unemployment Statistics• Social Surveys• Cancer figures
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Our Customers
• Parliament, ministers• Other government departments• Bank of England• The city, businesses• Europe• Academia and research• Media• Everyone
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Office for National Statistics Locations Staff
• Newport Economic statistics, methodology 1280
• London Economic & Social statistics, methodology 1040
• Titchfield Population statistics, methodology 850
• Southport Registrations - births, deaths, marriages 750
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About Myself
• Academic background: Cardiff University– BSc in Mathematics– PhD in Statistics– University teaching for a year
• Which way now?– Stay in academia or teaching?– Try something new?
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I wanted a career in which I would ...
– use my technical statistical knowledge– have good promotion prospects– take responsibilities– be given good training opportunities– stay in Cardiff
• Joined ONS in October 2001, as an Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream):– Sample Design & Estimation centre of
Methodology Group
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Structure of ONS
S o u rces D irec to ra te M e th o do lo gy G ro up A n a lys is D ire c to ra te
O N S
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Methodology Group
• Aims:– to achieve integrated and coherent statistics
across ONS– to facilitate sharing of best practice
• To achieve these:– work closely with business areas to achieve best
use of appropriate methods, etc.– provide expertise, guidance, advice
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Methodology Group
• Sample design and estimation
• Data collection• Editing and imputation• Analysis methods• Time series analysis
• Index numbers• Spatial analysis and
modelling• Statistical Disclosure control• Quality measurement• Metadata
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My Experiences
• Project work– Vacancies Survey– Register Dynamics– Retail Sales Inquiry– New Earnings Survey– Investigation of bias from small business guarantees
• Produce and present reports
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New Earnings Survey Redesign
• Survey of earnings, hours, pension arrangements• Currently a 1% sample of NI numbers in PAYE
schemes• From 2004 survey will
– be stratified– include non-PAYE jobs (low pay)– have results weighted– include standard errors for all estimates
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NES Redesign - Sample Design
• Find which variables are best correlated with earnings
• Propose to stratify by occupation, sex, ageband, workplace region
• Relies on previous data for some information• Post-stratify for calculation of results
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NES Redesign - Estimation
• Estimates will be weighted to account for non-response - design weights:
ai = Nh(s) / nh(s)
• Calibrate using LFS employee totals - calibration weights:
gi = Nh(ps) / j in h(ps) aj
• Weighted estimate of mean:
mean(y) = s aj gj yj / s aj gj
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NES Redesign - Standard Errors
• Aim to publish standard errors with all estimates• New methodology to estimate standard errors of
weighted quantiles (based on estimation of the density)
• Software: – Generalised Estimation System (GES) and SAS
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Summarising Thoughts
• Interesting job, with many aspects, and good potential
• Project work - many parallels to academic research, though on a shorter timescale
• Experience from academic research very useful for MG work - e.g. report writing, working to deadlines
• Lots of training: SAS, sampling, Consultancy Skills, etc.
• Practical use of work done
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What’s available?
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Posts in ONS Methodology Group
Newport
London
Titchfield
Positions are also available in other parts of ONS
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Posts in ONS Methodology Group(apply direct to ONS)
• Senior Methodologist – Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 4
years relevant experience in research and statistics
• Methodologist– Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 2
years relevant experience in research and statistics
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Posts in ONS Methodology Group(apply direct to ONS)
• Assistant Methodologist – Qualifications: min. 2(i) in statistics, maths, social science
that includes substantial statistics. Higher degree desirable– Progression to Methodologist after 2 years
• For methodology posts, apply directly to MG in ONS via the continuous recruitment programme
• Statistical Officer– Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline – Application deadline (Newport): Spring 2003, dates TBC
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Posts in ONS(apply through CSSB)
• Civil Service Selection Board (CSSB) – 1.5 day assessment centre (held in London)– Next closing date:
2 May 2003
for interviews 11-12 and 18-19 June
• Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream) – accelerated promotion to (branch head within six years?)– Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline– Can apply when in-post already
• Statistical Officer also available
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Salaries
• Divisional Director £££s• Principal Methodologist / Statistician £34k - £48k
(Branch head)
Starting Salaries:• Senior Methodologist £26.1k• Methodologist £21.4k• Assistant Methodologist £18.7k• Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream) £21.1k
• Statistical Officer £16.5k
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Other benefits
• Pension (final salary scheme)• Annual leave (25 days after first year)• Flexible working hours• Diversity of opportunities• Training (e.g. MSc in Official Statistics - includes survey
design, sampling, index numbers, estimation, regression, data analysis,
etc.)• Shop, restaurant, gym• Sports and social activities• Travel and leisure discounts
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What to do if you’re interested
• Sponsors’ reception: come and talk to us! [email protected], [email protected]
• Take away our flyers• Leave your contact details for more information
• E-mail for application forms (addresses on next slide)
• Job advertisements appear in regional and national press
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Contacts
• (Assistant) Methodologist continuous recruitment:– [email protected] (for MG at any site)
• Other site recruitment: – [email protected]– [email protected]
Websites: www.statistics.gov.uk/recruitment/
www.faststream.gov.uk