Methodology and preliminary results for EU-25 projections of GHG emissions from waste in the GAINS...

Methodology and preliminary results for EU-25 projections of GHG emissions from waste in the

GAINS model

Lena Höglund, IIASA

The GAINS model for GHG

GAINS

PRIMES CO2

CH4

N2O

HFCs,PFCs,SF6

SO2, NOX,NH3, PM,

VOCfrom RAINS

Results:

• Emission projections 2005-2030 for 42 European Regions for scenarios: no control (NOC), current legislation (CLE) maximum feasible reduction (MFR)

• Abatement costs for all scenarios

• Interaction effects with other pollutants

Waste sector emission sources in GAINS

Waste incineration: CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, NH3, CH4

Biodegradable waste treatment: CH4, (CO2)

Wastewater handling: CH4, N2O

Agricultural waste: SO2, NOx, PM, VOC, CH4

Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS

IPCC methodology based on:

• Amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated

• Emissions per unit of MSW

• Fraction of degradable organic carbon in MSW

• Fraction of MSW disposed of to landfill

Problem with using IPCC methodology for projections:

• Main control options are options diverting biodegradable waste away from landfills, which changes all parameters above.

Methodology used in GAINS:

Parameters used to calculate no control emissions:• Amounts of biodegradable waste generated:

Amount of paper waste (CEPI, 2002): Average annual paper consumption increase 1995-2002

assumed to continue until 2015 and no increase thereafter.

Amount of organic (i.e. food and garden) waste (IPCC, AEAT):Organic waste generation per capita constant over time.

• Emission factors for biodegradable waste disposed of to uncontrolled landfill:

0.150 kt CH4/kt paper waste (AEAT, 1998 and Micales and Skog, 1997)

0.082 kt CH4/kt organic waste (AEAT, 1998)



Paperconsumed*

Paper in municipal solid waste (MSW)

flow(95% of paperconsumed)

Paper scatteredwithout CH4 emissions

(5% of paperconsumed)

Paper recycling

Incineration

Capped landfill with gas recovery and utilization

Uncontrolled landfill

Capped landfill with gas recovery and flaring

Paper waste flow:

*Average annual paper consumption increase 1995-2002 assumed to continue until 2015 and constant thereafter.


Organic waste in the

municipal solid waste

flow

Large-scale composting

Incineration

Biogasification

Capped landfill with gas recovery and flaring

Capped landfill with gas recovery and utilization

Uncontrolled landfill

Organic waste flow:


Controlled CH4 emissions from biodegradable waste:

[ ]1

* * *(1 )n

i i ii

Emissions Q ef Appl remeff=

= -å

where i = 1,…,n are different waste diversion options,Q amount of biodegradable wasteef no control emission factorAppl application rate of control optionremeff removal efficiency of control option


Current legislation (CLE) scenario:

Current legislation considered: Landfill Directive (April, 1999)

Reductions from 1995 level of biodegradable waste to landfills:

2006: -25%2009: -50% + gas recovery at all landfills2016: -65%


Current legislation (CLE) scenario:

Starting point for projections:

• Current levels of paper recycling, composting, incineration and landfilling with and without gas recovery.

Projections:

• Landfill Directive fulfilled in all EU-25 primarily through increased recycling and composting.


Maximum (technically) feasible reduction (MFR) scenario:

MFR assumptions for application of paper waste control options:

• Paper recycling applied to a maximum.

• Maximum collection rate is 75% of paper consumed (CEPI, 2003).

• Paper waste not recycled is incinerated.

• No paper waste landfilled.


MFR assumptions for application of organic waste control options:

• Large-scale composting applied to a maximum.

• Maximum generation of compost from organic waste is estimated to 49 to 124 kg per person and year, with mean 80 kg per person and year (AEAT, 1998), which is assumed for NMS.

• Organic waste not composted is treated through biogasification.

• No organic waste landfilled.

Maximum (technically) feasible reduction (MFR) scenario:

Preliminary resultsPreliminary CLE projections in GAINS for CH4 emissions from waste sector in 2000-2030

(2000=1)

AUSTBELG

CYPR

CZRE

DENM

ESTO

FINL

FRANGERM

GREE

HUNG

ITAL

LATV

LITH

LUXE

MALT

NETH

PORT

SKRE

SLOV

SPAI

SWED

UNKI

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Comparison to Member States projections 2010 (EEA, 2004)(Emissions from waste and wastewater sectors)

0

150

300

450

600

750

900AU

ST

BELG

CYP

R

CZR

E

DEN

M

ESTO FIN

L

FRAN

GER

M

GR

EE

HU

NG

IREL

ITAL

LATV

LITH

LUXE

MAL

T

NET

H

POLA

POR

T

SKR

E

SLO

V

SPAI

SWED

UN

KI

kt C

H4/

year

CLE 2010 MFR 2010 MS 2010

Conclusions

• In CLE, EU-15 emissions of CH4 from waste sector expected to increase or remain constant in 2000-2030, due to already low levels in 2000 and expected increase in amount of biodegradable waste.

• In CLE, NMS emissions of CH4 from waste sector expected to decrease in 2000-2030 as a result of fulfilling the Landfill Directive requirements.

• In 2010, MS projections for AUST, CZRE, ESTO, GREE, LATV, POLA, PORT, SKRE, SLOV exceed the estimated emission level required by the Landfill Directive.

• In 2010, MS projections for BELG, DENM, FINL, FRAN, ITAL, SWED, UNKI are lower than estimated maximum technically feasible emission level.

More info on: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tap/RainsWeb/or [email protected]

Methodology and preliminary results for EU-25 projections of GHG emissions from waste in the GAINS...

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