Methodological Framework for AssessingVulnerability to Climate Change

by IPCC

Hrishiraj Sarma

2nd Semester, Master of Urban Planning

13MUP03

2015

A Comprehensive Study through processes

1. Introduction1. Earth’s atmospheric temperature increased: Range 1.1o C to 2.9o C

2. Climate change: increase of green house gases, loss of ecological balance

3. As per the different climate change reports of International Panel for Combating Climate Change (IPCC), the climate will change substantially in the coming few decades or earlier.

4. This change in climate will have significant multiple influences on biophysical, socioeconomic and ecological systems.

5. Impact of climate change:- Local---National—International/Global

6. Impact on economy, particularly on poor and developing countries and change in socio-economic status.

7. A prior knowledge of vulnerability of the system and the ways to increase its adaptive capacity will help to combat the climate change effectively. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments help to minimize the adverse impacts by means of deriving adaptation or mitigation strategies.

2. Defining Vulnerability Vulnerability in social sciences is ... “degree to which different classes

in society are differentially at risk, both in terms of the probability of occurrence of an extreme physical event and the degree to which the community absorbs the effects of extreme physical events and helps different classes to recover” (O’Keefe et al, 1983).

As per IPCC’s definition of vulnerability, it is the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes.

1. vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

2. The vulnerability can be reduced by introducing adaptation measures like protecting the area by means of sea wall or by retreating from the flood prone area, etc.

2.1 Why to measure Vulnerability?1. Identify magnitude of threats, such as climate change.

2. Guide decision-making on international aid and investment.

3. Prioritize aid for climate change adaptation.

4. Identify measures to reduce vulnerability.

2.2 Classification of Vulnerability

3. Methodological framework for vulnerability and adaptation assessmentVulnerability Assessment• Helpful in making policy framework, Planning, Disaster management etc.• Different policy questions require different methodological approaches.• Methodology will be diced on available tools and data.

Methodological Framework

V = f (E, S, AC)

E = Exposure,

S = Sensitivity,

AC = Adaptive

Capacity

Sensitivity

The degree to which a system will respond, either positively or negatively, to a change in climate.

Exposure

The degree of climate stress upon

a particular unit of analysis

long-term climate conditions

climate variability, magnitude

and frequency of extreme events.

Adaptive Capacity

The degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate.

4. Types of Framework4.1 Based on subject matter

4.2 Based on spatial scale

4.3 Based on chronology of the assessment

• Resilience driven• Scenario driven• Vulnerability driven

• Local• Regional• District level• State Level• Global

• Exploratory vulnerability assessment• Normative vulnerability assessments

5.1 General classification of vulnerability assessment

TOPDOWN

APPROACH

BOTTOMUP

APPROACH

5. 2 IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate change and ImpactsStep 1: Definition of the problem

Step 2: Selection of the method

Step 3: Testing the Method

Step 4: Selection of Scenario

Step 5: Assessment of impacts

5.3 U.S. Country Studies ProgramThe U.S. Country Studies Program gives methods and tools for assessing theimpacts of climate change on coastal recourses, agriculture, livestock, waterresources, human health, terrestrial vegetation wildlife and fisheries. Theprogram also gives guidance to adaptation. This framework is based on theIPCC guidelines.

5.4 UNEP Handbook MethodologyThe UNEP handbook methodology gives the overview of different methods andmodels to design and conduct assessment studies of climate change impacts

5.5 UNEP Adaptation Policy Framework

Five major principles (a) Adaptation policy and measures are assessed in a developmental context.(b) Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events are explicitly included as a step toward reducing vulnerability to long-term change.(c) Adaptation occurs at different levels in society , including the local level.(d) The adaptation strategy and the process by which it is implemented are equally important.(e) Building adaptive capacity to cope with current climate is one way of preparing society to better cope with future climate.

Adaptation policy framework

5.6 National Policy for Action (NAPA) Guidance Programme

5.7 Integrated Top Down and Bottom Up approach• Integrated Community and Private Sector Level Assessment.• Implementation - Utilizing mechanisms and undertaking pilot projects

6. DECIDING ON VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK

1. As already mentioned there are different types of frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation assessment.

2. The choice of the assessment depends upon for what purposes the assessment is being conducted.

3. The main objectives are dealing with the purpose of assessment, the targeted users, the information expected from the assessment, etc.

6.1 Practical Considerations for Vulnerability Adaptation Assessments1. Understanding about the various frameworks, methods and tools

is a must in doing a vulnerability assessment. 2. This will help to select the appropriate tool for the assessment. 3. A good top down approach assessment should find out the

probable biophysical and socioeconomic impacts for a given scenario and a bottom up approach assessment should help in participation of all the stakeholders in the assessment process and tries to get their opinion.

4. Yield results (i.e. profiles, assessments, analyses) that are relevant for decision makers and information that is clear, understandable and useful for all actors.

5. Prioritize resolving urgent problems and continuous monitoring should be done during preparation and implementation phases.

6. Designing adaptation policies should be the main concern and experts should try to incorporate them with existing development plans.

7. CONCLUSIONS

1. Vulnerability assessment exercises are of different types based of the different requirements of the users.

2. A proper description of the term has to be given before conducting the exercise.

3. Out of the different methodological frameworks for vulnerability assessment exercises, select methods and models that are most appropriate for the requirement.

4. Selection of framework depends upon the needs of the decision makers and no particular framework is superior to other.

7. CONCLUSION5. Frameworks which include participation of stakeholders at each

level can avoid future conflicts. 6. Prioritizing adaptation options will help in proper resource

management. 7. A multi sectoral integrated approach of vulnerability and adaptation

assessment is better than sector specific with due consideration to be given to specific sector under threat.

8. It is always better to adopt a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches.

Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 1, 01 - 15, January - March 2011

Methodological Frameworks for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate ChangeWritten by Rekha S Nair and Dr. Alka Bharat

Reference