Harvard Kennedy SchoolEnergy Policy Seminar Series

Methane: A Uniquely Difficult Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Problem

Robert KleinbergSchlumberger

Cambridge, Massachusetts

19 March 2018

Schlumberger

Dimmit County, Texas

Greene County, Pennsylvania

Schlumberger is the actual provider of exploration, drilling, and production services to the oil and gas industry.

The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Schlumberger.

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Outline

Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases

Sources of atmospheric methane

Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?

Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry

Current and potential policy responses

Natural Gas = 80% ‐ 100% methane (CH4)

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/Energy/Energy_2016_United‐States.png

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption (2016)27.5 trillion cubic feet = sphere 7 miles in diameter

Natural Gas Has Overtaken Coal in Electric Power Generation

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EIA Electric Power Monthly; All Sectors

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EIA Electric Power Monthly; All Sectors

2017

EIA Electric Power Monthly: All Sectors

Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy

Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy, November 2017

Gas Combined CycleCoal

Nuclear

Wind

Utility Solar

Residential Solar

Offshore Wind

Solar + Storage

Natural Gas

Coal

https://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys‐2014‐international‐comparison‐fossil‐power‐efficiency.pdf

CO2Intensity

 (g/kWh)

CO2Intensity

 (g/kWh)

Natural Gas Emits About Half as Much Carbon Dioxide as Coal

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US Total CO2 Emissions 1973-2017

US Energy Information Administration

Kyoto Protocol Target for USA: Return to 1990 emission levels by 2008-2012

Kyoto Protocol(CO2 only)

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview‐greenhouse‐gaseshttps://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/styles/large/public/2017‐04/overview1.png

Total Emissions in 20156,587 Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent

Carbon dioxide emissions are decreasing,but carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas

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Alvarez, PNAS, 2012

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Global Warming Potentialof CH4 + decay products

(ozone, stratospheric water, CO2)

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Alvarez, PNAS, 2012

Carbon Dioxide Methane

(IPCC AR4)

Methane is a More Potent Greenhouse Gas than Carbon Dioxide

after a century, methane isstill 25x more potent than carbon dioxide

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Carbon Dioxide

https://archive.epa.gov/epa/climate‐change‐science/causes‐climate‐change.htmlhttps://archive.epa.gov/epa/sites/production/files/2016‐07/ghgconc2000‐large.jpgftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/ch4/ch4_annmean_gl.txt

Methane

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Relative to pre-industrial levels, atmospheric methanehas increased much more than carbon dioxide

Outline

Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases

Sources of atmospheric methane

Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?

Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry

Current and potential policy responses

IEA World Energy Outlook 2017

(Global)

75% Oil & Gas25% Coal

Maasakkers, Environmental Science & Technology, 2016https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/gridded‐2012‐methane‐emissions

Identification of Methane Emissions in an Urban SettingCrosson, Phillips, Hutyra, Turnbull, Sweeney, Ackley, Tan (2011)

Maasakkers, Environmental Science & Technology, 2016

Fugitive Methane from Oil + Natural Gas = 350 - 700 billion cubic ft per year1.4% – 2.8% of US Natural Gas Consumption (25,500 bcf in 2012)

Large Uncertaintiesin Methane Emissions

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TotalAgriculture

Landfills +Wastewater

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Coal

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Fugitive Methane(million metric tons per year)

95% confidence intervals

180116-01

US Anthropogenic Emissions 2012

Fugitive Methane(billion cubic feet per year)

For a litany of measurement problems see IEA World Energy Outlook 2017, Section 10.2This is very depressing for anyone advocating data-driven policy making.

Outline

Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases

Sources of atmospheric methane

Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?

Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry

Current and potential policy responses

Is it Worthwhile Replacing Coal with Natural Gas?

Per unit of produced electrical power, natural gas combustion produces half the carbon dioxide of coal combustion.

Methane leaks, if greater than about 2.5% of methane used, eliminate the GHG advantage of natural gas vs. coal.

Coal combustion also produces pollutants such as particulate matter and sulfur dioxide, which have a cooling effect.

http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter16/mtpin_tseries.html

Global air temperature 

Wigley, Climatic Change (2011) 108:601–608

Effect of Partial Conversion of Coal to Gas in Global Power Generation

• Model assumes 1.25%/year reduction of coal use for forty years, with gas use increasing to keep produced electrical energy constant.

• Warming in early years due to reduction of coal-associated black carbon and sulfate aerosols.

Cooling Due to CO2 Reduction

50%coal to gasconversion

Warming Due to Aerosol

Reduction

US: Energy Information Administration Electric Power Annual, 2007, 2016China, India: Li, Nature Scientific Reports, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-14639-8

Wigley Used Old Data

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Sulfur Dioxide Emission from Electric Power Generation

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Wigley

Data from NASAOzone MonitoringInstrument

Data from EIA surveys andestimates

U.S. and China have dramatically reduced emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter from coal powered electric power generation. India has not.

Is it Worthwhile Replacing Coal with Natural Gas?

Per unit of produced electrical power, natural gas combustion produces half the carbon dioxide of coal combustion.

Methane leaks, if greater than about 2.5% of methane used, eliminate the GHG advantage of natural gas vs. coal.

Coal combustion also produces pollutants such as particulate matter and sulfur dioxide, which have a cooling effect.

Air pollution control measures largely eliminate particulate matter and sulfur dioxide, at the cost of increased global warming.

After removal of pollutants, coal-to-gas switching has a real advantage in decreasing global warming.

Where anti-pollution measures have not yet been instituted, coal-to-gas switching reduces air pollution, but has little net effect on global warming.

Outline

Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases

Sources of atmospheric methane

Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?

Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry

Current and potential policy responses

40 CFR Part 60, Subpart OOOOa - Standards of Performance for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Facilities for which Construction, Modification or Reconstruction Commenced After September 18, 2015

§ 60.5397a(a): “ . . . fugitive emissions are defined as: Any visible emission . . . observed using optical gas imaging or an instrument reading of 500 ppm or greater using Method 21.”

Challenges of Well Site Methane Leak Detection & Repair

Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 107 / Friday, June 3, 2016 / Rules and Regulations40 CFR 60: pages 35824‐35942; OOOOa: pages 35898‐35942

https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/40/part‐60/subpart‐OOOOa

[Meter Resolution] 6.3 The scale of the instrument meter shall be readable to ±2.5 percent of the specified leak definition concentration.

[Carrier Gas Flow Rate] 6.4 The instrument shall be equipped with an electrically driven pump to ensure that a sample is provided to the detector at a constant flow rate. The nominal sample flow rate, as measured at the sample probe tip, shall be 0.10 to 3.0 l/min (0.004 to 0.1 ft 3/min) when the probe is fitted with a glass wool plug or filter that may be used to prevent plugging of the instrument.

[Probe Diameter] 6.5 The instrument shall be equipped with a probe or probe extension or sampling not to exceed 6.4 mm (1/4 in) in outside diameter, with a single end opening for admission of sample.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=‐2UnL‐VGvx0

Optical Gas ImagingMethod 21

Kleinberg, Southwest Research Institute, July 2017

Natural Gas Drying & MeteringWashington County, Pennsylvania

Challenges of Well Site MethaneLeak Detection & Repair

40 CFR Part 60, Subpart OOOOa

“There is no notion that the repair threshold of 500 ppm equates to the target leak rate of 6 cu.ft./hr.”

Kleinberg, EPA Meeting Notes, 19 Aug 2016

5‐200 cu.ft./hr

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Infrared Image

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Typical Refinery or Chemical Plant

Leak Detection and Repair: A Best Practices Guide, EPA‐305‐D‐07‐001, October 2007

A. P. Ravikumar et al., Environmental Science & Technology (2017) 51 718.

Super-Emitters

Environmental Defense Fund / Stanford University / SchlumbergerAirborne survey to find super-emitter sites

Outline

Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases

Sources of atmospheric methane

Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?

Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry

Current and potential policy responses

X 80 billion Mcf/year = $0.8 billion

Economic Analysis of Methane Emission Reduction Opportunities in the On‐Shore Oil and Natural Gas IndustriesICF International for National Governors’ Association, December 2014.  See also IEA WEO 2017 Sec. 10.4.1

Economic Incentive for Reduction of Vented & Fugitive Methane

One year payback time

If You Can’t Sell the Gas, There is No Economic Incentive to Repair Leaks

Negative values: cost of remediation can be recovered (gas price = $3/mcf)Positive values: cost of remediation cannot be recovered

Economic Analysis of Methane Emission Reduction Potential from Natural Gas SystemsICF International for ONE Future, May 2016

Current and Potential Policy Responses: Discouragingly Ineffective

Economic IncentivesNot as compelling as industry and environmental groups pretendOnly 20% of repairs pay back in the best-case scenario

Leak Detection & RepairCommand and control:

Technologically inflexible due to regulatory inertiaDiagnostics do not quantify the actual problemHard to implement effectively

Carbon-Equivalent Tax You can’t tax what you can’t measure

Cap and TradeYou can’t trade what you can’t measure

Discourage Use of Natural GasGas is the most versatile energy source availableAlternatives (coal, nuclear, etc) are worse

Moral SuasionA challenging problem in

energy technology innovation policy

Recent Bibliography

International Energy Agency Chapter 10: The Environmental Case for Natural GasWorld Energy Outlook 2017, November 2017

K. Konschnik and S.M. JordaanReducing fugitive methane emissions from the North American oil and gas sectorClimate Policy, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1427538

Improving Characterization of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the United StatesNational Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 27 March 2018

Robert L. Kleinberg, Ph.D.SchlumbergerOne Hampshire StreetCambridge, MA 02139

617-768-2277kleinberg@slb.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/robert-kleinberg/19/177/131Member of the National Academy of Engineering

Dimmit County, Texas

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