Crop Zoning –Weather and climate information for farmers

ORIVALDO BRUNINI ORIVALDO BRUNINI

Sao Paulo State Secretariat for Agriculture and Sao Paulo State Secretariat for Agriculture and Food Supply Food Supply

Agronomic InstituteAgronomic Institute-- Campinas Campinas ––São Paulo São Paulo Brazil Brazil

President President –– Foundation of Support for Foundation of Support for Agricultural ResearchAgricultural Research

International Conference onPromoting Weather and ClimateInformation for Agriculture and

Food SecurityAntalya 7 to 9

April 2014 Turkish StateMeteorological

Service

CROP ZONING CROP ZONING –– MAIN GOAL MAIN GOAL

TO DEFINE SUITABLE TO DEFINE SUITABLE CROPSCROPS

TO QUANTIFY CLIMATE TO QUANTIFY CLIMATE VARIATION ON CROP VARIATION ON CROP DEVELOPMENT AND YIELDDEVELOPMENT AND YIELD

TO MAKE POSSIBLE TO MAKE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE VARIATION/CHANGE AND VARIATION/CHANGE AND CROP ADAPTATIONCROP ADAPTATION

QUANTIFY WATER QUANTIFY WATER RESOURCES RESOURCES

HOW TO IMPROVE CROP HOW TO IMPROVE CROP BREEDING PROCESSS FOR BREEDING PROCESSS FOR CLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE EXTREMES

QUANTIFY IRRIGATION QUANTIFY IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTSREQUIREMENTS

TO STABLISH A GOOD TO STABLISH A GOOD PROCESS OF SOIL PROCESS OF SOIL CONSERVATION AND CONSERVATION AND TILLAGETILLAGE

INFORMATION FOR FARMERS INFORMATION FOR FARMERS

CROP RISKS DURING CROP RISKS DURING PHENOLOGICAL CRITICAL PHENOLOGICAL CRITICAL PHASEPHASE

BEST CROP VARIETY FOR BEST CROP VARIETY FOR A GIVEN CLIMATE/SOIL A GIVEN CLIMATE/SOIL COMBINATIONCOMBINATION

BEST PLANTING/SOWING BEST PLANTING/SOWING DATEDATE

FARMERS FARMERS PRACTICESPRACTICES--CHEMICAL SPRAY; CHEMICAL SPRAY; FERTILIZER APLICATION; FERTILIZER APLICATION; PLANTING/HARVESTING PLANTING/HARVESTING PLANNING PLANNING

IRRIGATION (WATER) IRRIGATION (WATER) MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

WARNING ADVISORY WARNING ADVISORY FOR: FOR: PESTS/DISEASE/DROUGHTPESTS/DISEASE/DROUGHT

Some basic considerations to be Some basic considerations to be observedobserved

Weather network Weather network facilities;facilities;

Envolvement of the Envolvement of the extension service;extension service;

Private extension Private extension service;service;

Facility to disseminate Facility to disseminate and communication.and communication.

What is the languageWhat is the language(Farmers(Farmers--Researchers);Researchers);

Use of internet;Use of internet;

Time lag between the Time lag between the service generation and service generation and delivery;delivery;

Climate change Climate change scenarios;scenarios;

Water scarcity.Water scarcity.

MAIN FOCUSMAIN FOCUSCROP ZONINGCROP ZONING

CROP CROP SUITABILITYSUITABILITY

FARMERS INCOMEFARMERS INCOME

RISK MANAGEMENTRISK MANAGEMENT

IRRIGATION IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTSREQUIREMENTS

PRESERVE WATER PRESERVE WATER RESOURCESRESOURCES

CROP PLANTING AND CROP PLANTING AND HARVESTINGHARVESTING

PEST MANAGEMENT PEST MANAGEMENT

LONG TERM FOOD LONG TERM FOOD SECURITYSECURITY

INDICATION OF NEW INDICATION OF NEW SPECIES TO BE SPECIES TO BE CULTIVATEDCULTIVATED

HOW TO ADD SOCIAL HOW TO ADD SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENT AND ENVIRONMENT ASPECTSASPECTS

HOW TO COPE WITH HOW TO COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOUSSCENARIOUS

PROCEDUREPROCEDURE We aim to provide information about We aim to provide information about

agroclimatic zoning and crop planning based agroclimatic zoning and crop planning based on FAO and by the Agronomic Institute ( IAC).on FAO and by the Agronomic Institute ( IAC).

A complementary analysis of coping the A complementary analysis of coping the process of climatic risks and crop development process of climatic risks and crop development is introduced, considering also a dynamical is introduced, considering also a dynamical procedure to followprocedure to follow--up weather variables and a up weather variables and a monitoring system to ensure a better food monitoring system to ensure a better food security policy and crop yield estimates, security policy and crop yield estimates, considering the climate change.considering the climate change.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCEBACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE The study of agricultural zoning or agro climatic The study of agricultural zoning or agro climatic

suitability, followed by agro environmental suitability, followed by agro environmental zoning, comprises the determination, within a zoning, comprises the determination, within a certain defined area, certain defined area,

The potential of agricultural use of crops in The potential of agricultural use of crops in relation to their climate demands and of how relation to their climate demands and of how much support the climate can offer in terms of much support the climate can offer in terms of temperature and water supply.temperature and water supply.

It also includes evaluation of climatic risks It also includes evaluation of climatic risks associated with frost, water deficit, drought or associated with frost, water deficit, drought or high temperatureshigh temperatures. .

BASIC METHODOLOGY IN AGROCLIMATIC ZONINGBASIC METHODOLOGY IN AGROCLIMATIC ZONING

Data collection and preparation of basic Data collection and preparation of basic climatic charts representative of the region climatic charts representative of the region (average air temperature; annual and coldest (average air temperature; annual and coldest month, potential evapotranspiration, among month, potential evapotranspiration, among others);others);

Calculation of Water Balance for the Calculation of Water Balance for the determination of the following parameters: determination of the following parameters: actual evapotranspiration; water deficit and actual evapotranspiration; water deficit and surplus based on water balance parameters surplus based on water balance parameters according to cropaccording to crop--soil relations and soil soil relations and soil properties properties ;;

BASIC METHODOLOGY IN AGROCLIMATIC ZONINGBASIC METHODOLOGY IN AGROCLIMATIC ZONING

Survey of climate demands of the crop Survey of climate demands of the crop –– values values estimated based on climateestimated based on climate--crop qualification, crop qualification, and quantificationand quantification

Evaluation of major Evaluation of major climatic constraintsclimatic constraints-- frostfrost--DroughtDrought

Use of daily values for risk assessmentUse of daily values for risk assessment

After all the processes a region may be classified for After all the processes a region may be classified for the growth of a plant, in one of three following the growth of a plant, in one of three following

basic categoriesbasic categories

ADEQUATEADEQUATE –– when macroclimate conditions are when macroclimate conditions are normally favorable to commercial base use;normally favorable to commercial base use;

RESTRICTEDRESTRICTED –– when climate conditions present when climate conditions present restrictions which frequently undermine certain restrictions which frequently undermine certain phases of the crop. There might be some phases of the crop. There might be some limitation, not too severe, in terms of limitation, not too severe, in terms of temperature and/or water supply; temperature and/or water supply;

INADEQUATEINADEQUATE –– when climatic characteristics are when climatic characteristics are not adequate for commercial use. In this case, not adequate for commercial use. In this case, there are serious limitations in terms of there are serious limitations in terms of temperature and water supplytemperature and water supply. .

THE RESULTS PRESENTED WILL BE CONSIDERED TO THE RESULTS PRESENTED WILL BE CONSIDERED TO THE FOLLOWING ASPECTSTHE FOLLOWING ASPECTS

AGROCLIMATIC ADAPTATIONAGROCLIMATIC ADAPTATION

SOIL AND CLIMATE COMBINATIONSOIL AND CLIMATE COMBINATION

SOILSOIL--CLIMATE AND WATER RESTRICTIONSCLIMATE AND WATER RESTRICTIONS

TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE PROCESSES USED IN CLIMATE-PLANT ANALYSIS AND AGRICULTURAL ZONING, SOME BASIC DEFINITIONS ARE NEEDED:

1.Agroclimatic Region – An agroclimatic region is defined as a region with distinct characteristics of inter-related aspects among agronomic factors, type of exploration or system and the climate.

2.Agroecological Region – An agroecological region is defined as a region that has distinct characteristics of inter-related aspects among agronomic factors, farming systems and various characteristics of the environmental factors and not only climate.

3.Agro-Ecological System – An agro-ecological system is defined as an ecosystem manipulated by frequent anthropogenic modification of its biotic and abiotic environment. Four main types of modifications have been recognized, such as: energy input, reduction of biotic diversity to maximize the productivity of economic products, artificial selection and oriented external control.

SOIL-CLIMATIC SUITABILITY – BIOCLIMATES

THE SOIL-CLIMATIC SUITABILITY INCORPORATES THE CLIMATE ATTRIBUTES

THAT DEFINE AGROCLIMATIC SUITABILITY WITH SOIL ATTRIBUTES, SUCH AS

SOIL FERTILITY AND SOIL PHYSICS THAT SUMMARIZE THE AGRICULTURAL

SUITABILITY OF THE SOIL,

MEXICOMEXICO

MOMOÇÇAMBIQUEAMBIQUE

THE MOST INDICATIVE ASPECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURE

HEAT STRESS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD MAY BE LESS CRITICAL THAN NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURE INCREASE AND REDUCE

CROP YIELDS SUBSTANTIALLY

Scenarious of Climate Change

Very little about rain

MEXICOMEXICO

SUGAR CANE GROWERSSUGAR CANE GROWERS--(VERA CRUZ STATE)(VERA CRUZ STATE)

TRY TO DEFINE THE FUTURE CLIMATE TRY TO DEFINE THE FUTURE CLIMATE

TO VERIFY DURING CROP GROWING CYCLE THE MAJORS TO VERIFY DURING CROP GROWING CYCLE THE MAJORS CONSTRAINTS CONSIDERING CROP PHENOLOGYCONSTRAINTS CONSIDERING CROP PHENOLOGY

DRY PERIODDRY PERIOD

CONSTRAINTSCONSTRAINTS

BRAZILBRAZILSÃO PAULO STATESÃO PAULO STATE

BASIC MAPPING PROCEDURE BASIC MAPPING PROCEDURE

Tool – ArcView

Main steps to perform Agroclimatic Zoning

Elaboração dos mapas bases

Basic maps to be

evaluated

Air Temperature/crop restriction 

Rainfall‐Crop water demand 

Moisture Index/Water restrictions

Different maps of crop suitability

Termal Requirement

Crop water demand

Water stress indexes

Based on the requirement for each crop

Sutiabilty ‐Temperatures

Suitabilty based on crop water requirement

Suitability based on water stress

Cruzar e analisar os mapas de aptidão

Termal Suitability Crop water demand Water stress index  Soil MechanizationSoil fertility

Mapas bases

Temperature Rainfall

Soil Slope

Water stress

Edaphoclimate –crop zoning

Temperature Crop water demand Water stress) Soil MechanizationSoil Fertility

INFORMATION FOR FARMERSINFORMATION FOR FARMERS

The first agrometeorological service to farmers and The first agrometeorological service to farmers and agriculture created in Brazil , is the Agrometeorology agriculture created in Brazil , is the Agrometeorology Integrated Information Center (CIIAGRO), belonging to Integrated Information Center (CIIAGRO), belonging to the Secretariat for Agriculture and Food Supply , in the the Secretariat for Agriculture and Food Supply , in the State of Sao PauloState of Sao Paulo-- 19891989

INFOSECAINFOSECA-- Drought Monitoring Information CenterDrought Monitoring Information Center--20052005

EARLY DROUGHT WARNING SYSTEMEARLY DROUGHT WARNING SYSTEM--SIASECASIASECA-- 20132013

DATACLIMA SUPPORT SYSTEMDATACLIMA SUPPORT SYSTEM-- 20112011

WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCEWHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE

EXTENSION SERVICE IS EXTENSION SERVICE IS A REAL PARTNERA REAL PARTNER

FARMERS UNIONFARMERS UNION

COOPERATIVESCOOPERATIVES

SUPPORT FROM WATER SUPPORT FROM WATER RESOURCES RESOURCES SECRETARIAT FOR SECRETARIAT FOR AUTOMATED WEATHER AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION STATION IMPLEMENTATIONIMPLEMENTATION

PRIVATE ENTERPRISES PRIVATE ENTERPRISES SHARE THE COST FOR SHARE THE COST FOR WEATHER STATION WEATHER STATION MAINTENANCEMAINTENANCE

ALL WATERSHED ALL WATERSHED COMMITTEES HAVE COMMITTEES HAVE INCLUDE AWS IN THEIR INCLUDE AWS IN THEIR TERM OF REFERENCETERM OF REFERENCE

ALL WATERSHED ALL WATERSHED COMMITTEES ARE COMMITTEES ARE AWARE OF THE AWARE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF IMPORTANCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE

USERS ENVOLVEDUSERS ENVOLVED SEMINARSSEMINARS

FIELD DAYSFIELD DAYS

WE HAVE 40 REGIONAL AGENCIES OF EXTENSION WE HAVE 40 REGIONAL AGENCIES OF EXTENSION SERVICE TO SUPPORTSERVICE TO SUPPORT

WORKSHOP DEALING WITH THE ISSUE OF WORKSHOP DEALING WITH THE ISSUE OF DISSEMINATION AND COMMUNICATIONDISSEMINATION AND COMMUNICATION

A REASONABLE WEATHER STATION NETWORKA REASONABLE WEATHER STATION NETWORK

Período (Dia/Mês) n

ETR/ETM-Sowing January-1stx < 0,40,4 <= x < 0,6 0,6 <= x < 0,7 0,7 <= x < 0,8 x >= 0,8

01/01 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,59 99,4006/01 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,29 99,7011/01 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,29 99,7016/01 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 99,9821/01 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9926/01 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9901/02 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 99,9806/02 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9911/02 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9916/02 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9921/02 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 99,9826/02 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9901/03 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9906/03 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9911/03 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9916/03 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9921/03 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9926/03 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9901/04 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,9906/04 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 99,99

Período (Dia/Mês) n ETR/ETM-Sowing April 6th

x < 0,40,4 <= x < 0,6 0,6 <= x < 0,7 0,7 <= x < 0,8 x >= 0,806/04 32 6,00 15,69 21,03 24,96 32,3111/04 32 10,60 14,92 18,27 21,81 34,3816/04 32 2,98 10,78 17,27 23,85 45,1221/04 32 2,27 10,50 17,64 24,64 44,9426/04 32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,59 99,4001/05 32 0,00 0,01 0,85 10,12 89,0206/05 32 0,00 0,83 7,50 22,79 68,8711/05 32 0,00 0,43 5,61 20,49 73,4616/05 32 0,00 1,15 8,01 22,05 68,7821/05 32 0,00 0,24 4,20 17,86 77,6826/05 32 0,00 0,33 4,92 19,24 75,5001/06 32 0,00 0,09 2,76 15,35 81,8006/06 32 0,00 0,09 2,76 15,35 81,8011/06 32 0,00 0,15 3,49 17,11 79,2416/06 32 0,00 0,09 2,76 15,35 81,8021/06 32 0,00 0,05 2,02 13,33 84,5926/06 32 0,00 0,15 3,49 17,11 79,2401/07 32 0,00 0,09 2,76 15,35 81,8006/07 32 0,07 3,63 11,86 23,32 61,1111/07 32 0,10 4,30 12,99 24,28 58,3216/07 32 0,10 4,30 12,99 24,28 58,3221/07 32 0,10 4,30 12,99 24,28 58,3226/07 32 0,10 4,05 12,40 23,57 59,8701/08 32 0,10 4,18 12,69 23,92 59,0906/08 32 0,10 4,30 12,99 24,28 58,3211/08 32 0,13 5,00 14,30 25,56 55,00

Cycle-99 days

Cycle-137 days

OBRIGADO

brunini@iac.sp.gov.br