meteoblue learning multi-model (MLM)

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meteoblue meteoblue learning multi-model (MLM) A quick introduction

Transcript of meteoblue learning multi-model (MLM)

Page 1: meteoblue learning multi-model (MLM)

meteoblue

meteoblue learning multi-model (MLM)

A quick introduction

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u ric t r or c t od n continuou i ro d in t t d c d to i ro t or c t o t ir t r tur

ro i i tic t od d on n r diction od out ut t ti tic nd u ti od ro c n d o d to incr t od ki

u ti od ro c or t ic r r ki t n r od t n t ro n rror c nc tion o t r od

Arti ci int i nc i urt r u d to incr t od ki i tin nd ctin di r nt or c t od d ndin on r ion on or c t d ti nd t r condition

t o u rnin u ti od u c in rnin ro c to o r tion or c t t ir t r tur

An i o od r or nc o ir t r tur t or d id t oro o ic t tion or d

o ri on it di r nt t r or c t od nd i toric c i t n i A

An i o t od ki unction o or c t our

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i ti di tri ution o n A o ut rror A o t our t r tur or c t co ut d it to n t c i t r n i A otto t nd

t nu ric t r or c t od otto ri t or t r cto r

n A o ut rror A t tion

Comparison of temperature errors as computed by different modeling approaches

A A t tion A t tion

< 0.5 K 0.5 - 1.0K 1.0 - 1.5 K 1.5 - 2.0 K 2.0 - 2.5 K 2.5K - 3.0 K 3.0 - 3.5 K 3.5 - 4.0 K 4.0 - 4.5 K 4.5 - 5.0 K

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i n A o ut rror unction o or c t our co ut d or con cuti d or c t co or d nd t r ck or c t rror or u nd

di r nt nu ric t r or c t od r d r o o n

n A o ut rror o t d our t r tur or c t or di r nt od in ro c u t d t or t n o r tion it

Comparison of temperature errors as computed by different modeling approaches

r tur rror ro t it or c t d ti

model approach

t o u rnin u ti od

od out ut t ti tic

n i od A

i r nt t r or c t od A

50 100or c t our

1500.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

di r nt t r or c t od A

A

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RESULTS

MM

i n A o ut rror o t or c t t nd t or c t ri t r cti

i n rti ci int i nc d ro c to o ti co in ct t t or c t od t n rticu r oc tion nd or c t d ti

r or i ni c nt tt r t n t c i t r n i od A d o t roc in or t nd onA nu ric t r or c t od

A d or c t o t i ood d or c t o o t r or c t od i

o nt o or r ot r t oro o ic r t r ind d u idit r di tion

i o i or r ci it tion

ensiti ity of the temperature error to the forecast lead time

A or c t A or c t

< 0.5 K 0.5 - 1.0K 1.0 - 1.5 K 1.5 - 2.0 K 2.0 - 2.5 K 2.5K - 3.0 K 3.0 - 3.5 K 3.5 - 4.0 K 4.0 - 4.5 K 4.5 - 5.0 K

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in o t o u co

t o u Ar tr

it r nd

ro id r o r ci ion t r in or tion r c in t or dound d in in o ro ni r it o in it r ndri t co n d t r ro inu to r in or t n countri

i r uto t d r ci ion t r in oor d id n oint on nd or

or c t nd i tor our inc i r ci ion nd con i t ncu ti out ut d t di r r ic

to cc A ot r

recision eather company

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ro ri t r t r i u tion t c no ortn r i it ni r iti AA ot r

r ck r cord o inno tion it r n ctricit

ir t ri t co n to ro idi r o ution k d t or uro out A ric in ndi nd A ric

n o our t r or c t odt i d ccur c r ort or d id

our t r d t global coverage inc 85

i n d orndi idu in ci int r t in t oro ou in cu to r t t d nd on i r ci ion t r nd c i t d tu in cu to r r quirin int r cti n i o n iron nt i d t

n r u ic u in our r i r o ution t r or c t

n i d co ut r c u t r nd d dic t d r ri r or nc t r odro ri t r i u i tion

r out ut c nn