Metals & Mining - August 2013

download Metals & Mining - August 2013

of 43

Transcript of Metals & Mining - August 2013

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    1/43

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    2/43

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    3/43

    Source: 12th Five-Year Plan; Ernst & Young; Aranca Research

    Third-largest coalproducer

    Coal production has increased at a five-year CAGR of 4.6 per cent to 540 million tonnes inFY2012 making India the third largest producer in the world. Further, India has the fifth-largest coal reserves in the world

    Fourth-largest iron ore

    producer

    Iron ore production expanded at a CAGR of 3.2 per cent during FY0711. Based on iron

    ore production, India ranks fourth globally

    Second-largest steelproducer by 2015

    India is slated to become the second-largest steel producer by 2015. Crude steelproduction increased at a CAGR of 7.7 per cent over 200512

    Fifth-largest bauxitereserves

    India has the fifth-largest bauxite reserves, with deposits of about 3 billion tonnes or 5 percent of world deposits. Aluminium production is estimated to be 4.7 million tonnes perannum during 201217

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    4/43

    The engineering sector is delicensed;100 per cent FDI is allowed in thesector

    Due to policy support, there wascumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion intothe sector over April 2000 February2012, making up 8.6 per cent of totalFDI into the country in that period

    Growing demand

    Source: DataMonitor, Aranca Research

    Notes: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment, MMDR Bill - Mines and Mineral (Development and Regulation) Bill

    Demand growth

    Rise in infrastructure developmentand automotive production drivinggrowth in the sector

    Power and cement industries alsoaiding growth in the metals andmining sector

    Attractive opportunities

    There is significant scope fornew mining capacities in ironore, bauxite, and coal

    Untapped metal reserves inIndia are to the tune of 82billion tonnes

    Policy support

    100 per cent FDI allowed in themining sector under the Automatic

    Route Mining lease granted for a longduration of minimum 20 years andup to 30 years

    Approval of MMDR Bill (2011) toprovide better legislativeenvironment for investment andtechnology

    Competitive advantage

    India holds a fair advantage incost of production and conversion

    costs in steel and alumina Its strategic location enables

    convenient exports to developedas well as the fast-developingAsian markets

    2011

    Industryvalue:

    USD141.9billion

    2015F

    Industryvalue:

    USD305.5billion

    AdvantageIndia

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    5/43

    Source: World Steel Association (WSA), DataMonitorNote: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate

    Mining sectorreceived a boost

    postindependenceunder theimpact ofsuccessive FiveYear Plans

    Central GovernmentpromulgatedIndustrial PolicyResolution

    The exploration ofminerals wasintensified and the

    Geological Survey ofIndia wasstrengthened

    Indian Bureau ofMines wasestablished to lookafter the scientificdevelopment ofmineral resources

    Mineral ExplorationCorporationestablished toconduct explorationwith focus on coal,iron ore, limestone,dolomite andmanganese ore

    1947

    1956

    1972

    Present

    India is the largest

    producer of sheet mica,the third largest producerof iron ore and the fifthlargest producer ofbauxite in the world

    Crude steel production inIndia expanded at aCAGR of 6.7 per centover 1980-2012

    India accounted for 7.3per cent of the metalsand mining industry inthe Asia-Pacific region in2011

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    6/43

    Metals and Mining

    Iron and steel segment offers a product mix which includes hot

    rolled parallel flange beams and columns rails, plates, coils, wire

    rods, and continuously cast products such as billets, blooms, beam,

    blank, rounds and slab, and metallics and ferro alloy

    Coal market consists of primary coal (anthracite, bituminous and

    lignite)

    Coal

    Iron and steel

    Aluminium segment includes alumina chemicals, primary aluminium,

    aluminium extrusions, aluminium rolled products

    Base metal market consists of lead, zinc, copper, nickel and tinBase metals

    Aluminium

    Precious metals market includes gold, silver, platinum, palladium,

    rhodium, diamond

    Precious metals andminerals

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    7/43

    Source: DataMonitor, Aranca ResearchNote: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate

    Value of Indias metals and mining industry(USD billion)

    Indias metals and mining industry recorded a strong 19.8per cent expansion in 2011 to touch USD141.9 billion

    Much of the above growth in the industrys value can beattributed to higher prices given that production volumegrowth was relatively lower at 3.2 per cent (total productionstood at 716.3 million metric tonnes)

    Production volumes have been growing steadily over theyears over 2007-11, it registered a CAGR of 5.2 per cent;with prices also rising during this period, the sectors valuerose by around 17.7 per cent (CAGR)

    74.0

    105.4

    89.7

    118.4

    141.9

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    8/43

    Source: DataMonitor, Aranca Research

    Shares in Indias metals and mining industry (2011)

    Iron and steel is the largest segment of the Indian metals and mining industry, accounting for 68.5 per cent of the overallindustry value (2011); coal is the other major sub-segment with a 26.5 per cent share

    India accounted for 7.3 per cent of the metals and mining industry in the Asia-Pacific region in 2011

    Indias share in the metals and mining industry in

    Asia-Pacific (2011)

    73.8%

    20.8%

    3.2%

    2.0%

    0.2%

    Iron & Steel

    Coal

    Aluminium

    Base Metals

    Precious metals &minerals

    71.7%

    8.3%

    7.1%

    3.9%9.0%

    China

    Japan

    India

    South Korea

    Rest of Asia-Pacific

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    9/43

    Source: Ministry of Mines (Annual Report 201112);Aranca Research

    Iron ore production (million tonnes)India is the worlds fourth largest iron ore producer (globalshare of 11 per cent)

    Iron ore production is estimated to have increased at aCAGR of 3.2 per cent during FY0711. Total production inFY13 stood at 140.1 million tonnes

    Private sector accounted for 67 per cent of Indias total ironore production in FY12

    In FY12, Odisha, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Goa, andJharkhand accounted for 97 per cent ofIndias total iron oreproduction

    188213 213 219 207

    167140

    FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    10/43

    Source: World Steel Association, Aranca Research

    Note: e - Estimate

    Crude steel production (million metric tonnes)

    Given that iron ore is a key ingredient in steel production, the expansion in iron ore production in India can be linked to thecountrys fast-expanding steel sector

    Crude steel production is estimated to reach 76.7 million metric tonnes in 2012, expanding at a CAGR of 7.7 per cent over200512. Production in Q1 2013 is estimated at 19.8 million metric tonnes

    India is the worlds fourth-largest producer of crude steel (2012), with a global share of 5.1 per cent

    Shares in global crude steel production (2012)

    45.8 49.5

    53.1 57.8

    62.8 66.872.2

    76.7

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e

    46.9%

    7.1%

    5.9%

    5.1%

    4.7%China

    Japan

    United States

    India

    Russia

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    11/43

    Source: Ministry of Commerce, Aranca Research

    Indias exports of iron and steel (USD billion)India is the worlds third largest exporter of iron ore

    With rising domestic demand-supply gap and to makedomestic supplies more attractive, the government onMarch 2011 hiked freight charges and taxes on iron oreexports

    Indias Iron and steel exports increased at a CAGR of 4.2per cent to USD8.1 billion in FY13

    6.6

    7.5

    4.5

    7.1

    8.3 8.1

    FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    12/43

    Source: Reserve Bank of India, Aranca Research

    Indias imports of iron and steel (USD billion)India has turned into a net importer of iron and steel due tostrong growth in the manufacturing sector and risinginfrastructure projects

    Indias transition into a net importer of steel despite thestrong growth in domestic steel production shows thedemand potential of the sector

    The impact of strong growth in domestic steel productionhas been most felt in the iron ore sector; with steel firmsever rising demand for the raw material, Indias imports ofiron ore has been growing steadily (for example, iron andsteel imports increased at a CAGR of 8.4 per cent overFY08-13)

    9.110.3 8.8

    11.0

    13.6 13.6

    FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    13/43

    Source: Ministry of Mines, Aranca Research

    Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate,P - Provisional, E - Estimate

    Coal production (million tonnes)Coal production recorded a CAGR of 4.3 per cent overFY08-12

    In the coming years, coal production in the country is likelyto receive a boost as the government plans to replace thecountrys captive mining policy in coal and iron ore with anopen bidding one

    457

    493

    532 533 540

    488

    FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(P) FY13(E)

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    14/43

    Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012,Aranca Research

    Shares in global coal production (2011)India is the worlds fourth-largest producer of coal and hasthe fifth-largest reserves globally

    Coal India Ltd (CIL), a Government of India enterprise, isthe worlds largest coal company based on raw coalproduction and coal reserves

    49.5%

    14.1%

    5.8%

    5.6%

    5.1%

    20.0% China

    US

    AustraliaIndia

    Indonesia

    Rest of the World

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    15/43

    Source: Geological Survey of India, Indian Bureau of Mines, Aranca Research

    Notable

    Trends

    Coal deposits in million tonnes (mt)Iron ore deposits in million tonnes (mt)

    States with major coal deposits

    Jharkhand (76,963 mt)

    Odisha (66,307 mt)

    Chhattisgarh (46,682 mt)

    West Bengal (29,853 mt)

    Andhra Pradesh (22,016 mt)

    Madhya Pradesh (21,988 mt)

    Maharashtra (10,308 mt)

    States with lower coal deposits

    Uttar Pradesh (1062 mt)

    Meghalaya (577 mt)

    Assam (387 mt)

    Nagaland (316 mt)

    Bihar (160 mt)

    Sikkim(101 mt)

    Arunachal Pradesh (90 mt)

    States with iron ore deposits

    Odisha (44.8 mt)

    Karnataka (34.3 mt)

    Goa (3.7 mt)

    Chhattisgarh (3.4 mt)

    Jharkhand (3.2 mt)

    Andhra Pradesh (0.8 mt)

    Madhya Pradesh (0.3 mt)

    Maharashtra (0.1 mt)

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    16/43

    Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS),Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), ICRA Management Consulting Services Ltd (IMaCS), Aranca Research

    Note: ICRA - Information Credit Rating Agency Ltd

    Aluminium demand by sector (2011)

    Currently, aluminium is the second most used metal in the world after steel and the third most available element in theearth constituting almost 7.3% by mass

    India has 3.3 billion tonnes of bauxite reserves, the fifth-largest deposit of bauxite globally

    Indias share in global aluminium production (2012)

    39.0%

    18.0%

    15.0%

    9.0%

    19.0%Electrical

    Transport

    Machinery

    Packaging

    Other

    43.9%

    8.7%6.0%

    5.1%

    4.5%

    4.1%

    4.1%

    3.7%

    19.9%

    China

    Russia

    Canada

    EU

    US

    UAE

    Australia

    India

    Rest of the World

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    17/43

    Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS),

    12th Five Year Plan,EIU, ICRA Management Consulting Services Ltd(IMaCS), Aranca Research

    Note: ICRA - Information Credit Rating Agency Ltd

    Aluminium production in 2012 (million tonnes)Aluminium production is estimated to be 4.7 mill ion tonnesper annum during 201217. Output growth is expected toaverage around 4.5 per cent in 201314

    India's primary aluminium production capacity is expected toincrease from 1.7 tonnes per annum (tpa) in 2012 to 4.7 tpaby end-2017, with much of the expansion in capacity andproduction targeted for export markets

    1.6

    1.7

    1.7

    1.8

    1.9

    2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    18/43

    Source: WBMS, EIU, Aranca Research

    Aluminium consumption (million tonnes)The growth in global aluminium consumption averaged 6.8per cent in 2012, while consumption in India rose 7.5 percent in the same year

    During 200711, world aluminium consumption expanded atan estimated CAGR of 4.6 per cent

    Growth is forecast to average just over 7 per cent in 201314

    Aluminium's main markets are China (which represented41.4 per cent of worldwide demand in 2011), followed bythe US (9.6 per cent), Germany (5 per cent), Japan (4.6 percent), and India (3.7 per cent)

    1.51.6

    1.7 1.8

    1.9

    2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    19/43

    Segment Major Player Market Share Other players

    Iron and Steel NA Sesa Goa, SAIL, Orissa Minerals

    Coal 80 per centSingareni Collieries Company,

    Reliance Natural Resources

    Aluminium 60 per cent

    National Aluminium Company

    (NALCO),Bharat Aluminium Company

    (BALCO)

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    20/43

    Note: MT - Metric Tonnes

    Captive mining for coal

    In captive mining for coal, companies are permitted to set up coal washeries and forspecified end uses, including the setting up of power plants, fertilisers and steel units

    Under the captive route, the government has allocated 198 coal blocks with geologicalreserves of about 42 billion tonnes to various public and private sector companies

    Focus on domesticmarket

    The demand for metal and metal products is rising in the domestic market with India beinga net importer in the metals segment

    In March 2011, freight charges and taxes on iron ore exports were increased to boostdomestic supplies

    Overseas ventures

    In search of greater mineral opportunities, an increasing number of Indian miningcompanies are venturing overseas in a bid to secure stable, long-term supplies of mineralsespecially in the areas of coal and iron ore

    Coal India plans to export 10 MT of coal from Mozambique to India in the next 10 years;the company is seeking more license blocks in Mozambique

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    21/43

    Note: M&A - Mergers and Acquisitions, FDI - Foreign Direct Investment

    Policy support

    Relaxed FDI norms

    Allowing privateownership

    Reduced customsduty

    Increasing investments

    Value of M&A deals inmetals and mining rose

    at a CAGR of 138 percent over 2008-11

    Increasing FDI

    Inviting Resulting in

    Higher demand formetals

    Growing infrastructure

    investments

    Sustained growth inIndias automotive

    sector

    Aluminium and coal

    benefiting from risingpower production

    Rising production ofcement increasingdemand for coal

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    22/43

    Source: SIAM, Aranca Research

    Note: FY - Indian Financial Year (April - March)

    Sustained growth in Indias automotive sector has been driving demand for steel and aluminium

    Production of automobiles increased at a CAGR of 12.2 per cent over FY0513

    Passenger vehicles was the fastest-growing segment, representing a CAGR of 15.4 per cent

    India is expected to become the worlds third-largest auto market by 2020

    Total production of automobiles in India (million units)

    1.2 1.3 1.3 1.61.8 2.4

    3.03.1

    3.2

    0.4 0.40.5 0.6 0.4

    0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8

    0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.60.8 0.8 0.8

    6.5

    7.6 8.5 8.0 8.4

    10.5

    13.4

    15.5 15.9

    FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

    Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    23/43

    Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Aranca Research

    Note: TWh - Terawatt-hour,P- Provisional

    Power generation in India (in TWh)The power sector accounts for a large share of theconsumption of aluminium and coal in the country

    Power generation in India expanded at a CAGR of 5.7 percent during FY0613

    In FY13, total power generation capacity stood at 223,344MW, with capacity addition of 20,623 MW during the year

    In the Eleventh Plan, India is estimated to have addedaround 60,000 MW of generation capacity at an investmentof USD11.5 billion

    To meet growing power demand, the Power Ministry hastargeted capacity addition of 85,000 MW in the Twelfth Plan(2012-17) period

    618 663 705

    724 772811

    876 912

    FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13P

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    24/43

    Source: Business Monitor International s (BMI) report on

    infrastructure industry in India Q4 2012, Aranca ResearchNote: F - Forecasts (by BMI)

    Indias expanding infrastructure industry

    (USD billion)Infrastructure projects continue to provide lucrative businessopportunities for steel, zinc and aluminium producers

    Indias infrastructure sector expanded at a CAGR of 15.8per cent over FY08-11

    37

    48 48 5866 65

    8197

    115

    136

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    FY12E

    FY13F

    FY14F

    FY15F

    FY16F

    FY17F

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    25/43

    Source: Business Monitor International s (BMI) report on

    infrastructure industry in India Q4 2012, Aranca ResearchNote: F - Forecasts (by BMI)

    Residential and non-residential building industry(USD billion)

    Indias residential and non-residential building industryexpanded at a CAGR of 10.7 per cent over FY08-11

    Growth in the sector is set to increase in the nextfew years; forecasts put the CAGR for FY12-17 at14.5 per cent

    Iron and steel being a core component of the real estate

    sector, demand for these metals is set to continue givenstrong growth expectations for the residential andcommercial building industry 57 55

    70

    80 7996

    113

    134

    158

    FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F FY15F FY16F FY17F

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    26/43

    Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion,12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research

    Note: E - Estimate, MTPA - Million Tonnes Per Annum,CAGR - Cumulative Average Growth Rate

    Cement production in India (million tonnes)India is the worlds second-largest producer of cement; thesectors strong expansion over the past decade has been akey contributor to rising coal demand

    Cement production increased at a CAGR of 9.7 per cent to272 million tonnes over FY0613

    Production is expected to reach 407 million tonnes by FY17,

    as per the 12th Five-Year Plan

    By FY13, the cement sector is expected to add 30-40 MTPAof additional capacity

    142 156 168

    182207

    229247

    272 300332

    368 407

    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    FY12

    FY13E

    FY14E

    FY15E

    FY16E

    FY17E

    CAGR: 9.7%

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    27/43

    Source:Aranca Research

    Higher cement

    production

    Increasing number of

    houses

    Large infrastructure

    projects

    Expanding road

    construction

    Government support

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    28/43

    Source: India Mining Report by BMI-Q2 2012, Aranca ResearchNote: Description of each headline given in the Appendix

    Within the Asia-Pacific region, India is ahead of South Korea and Philippines in the mining sector; at the same time it is incompetition with Australia, Malaysia, China, Indonesia and Japan

    Limits of potential returns Risks to realisation of returns

    MiningIndustry

    Countrystructure Limits

    Marketrisks

    Countryrisk Risks

    Miningrating

    India 25.0 52.8 34.7 68.5 53.2 60.8 42.6

    South Korea 10.0 66.2 29.7 77.7 57.5 67.6 41.0

    Japan 12.5 70.8 32.9 86.4 77.9 82.1 47.7

    Philippines 17.5 56.2 31.1 60.4 41.5 51.0 37.0

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    29/43

    Note: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment

    Allowing privateownership

    Government of India is encouraging private ownership for steel operations and other highpriority industry

    Reduced custom duty Government of India significantly reduced the duty payable on finished steel products and

    has streamlined the associated approval process

    Relaxed FDI norms FDI up to 100 per cent is permitted under the Automatic Route to explore and exploit all

    non-fuel and non-atomic minerals and process all metals as well as for metallurgy FDI caps for coal and lignite has been increased to 100 per cent under the automatic route

    Approved NMP In a positive move for the sector, in 2008, the Indian Cabinet approved the National

    Mineral Policy (NMP) 2008, to boost FDI in mining

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    30/43

    Note: GOI - Government of India, PSUs - Public Sector Undertakings

    Overview of the MMDRBill

    GOI approved the new mining bill the Mines and Minerals Development Bill (MMDR Bill) on 30th Sep 2011; the bill calls for mining firms to share either profits or amountsequivalent to royalties with local communities

    The proposed bill is expected to make it easier to win local approval and smoothen theland acquisition process

    General restrictionsand mineralconcessions

    Reservation of areas for PSUs removed

    State governments to set up special courts to expedite prosecution in illegal mining Statutory Coordination cum Empowered Committee at central and state levels to decide

    upon stringent penalties for offences

    Process of revenuecollection and usage

    Central government to establish National Mineral Fund; respective state governments toestablish State Mineral Fund(s)

    District Mineral Foundation will be set up by the state government which will work for theinterest and benefit of persons or families affected by mining related operation in the

    district and will be managed by a governing council The mining tax collected will be spent within the district

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    31/43

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    32/43

    Source: Thomson Banker, Deal Tracker, Aranca Research

    Total M&A deal value in metals and mining increased at a CAGR of 138 per cent during 2008-11

    In 2011, M&A deal value in the mining sector stood at USD11.2 billion, 292 per cent higher than the corresponding figurefor 2010 (USD2.9 billion)

    M&A activities (as of Mar 2013)

    Acquirer TargetAcquisition Price

    (USD million)

    Vedanta Resources PLC Cairn India Ltd (30.4% stake in December 2011) 4,541.9

    Sesa Goa Ltd Sterlite Industries 3,911.0

    Vedanta Resources PLC Cairn India Ltd (10.1% stake in July 2011) 1,513.2

    GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd Hancock Coal-Queensland Coal 1,260.0

    Sesa Goa Ltd Cairn India Ltd 1,175.9

    JFE Steel Corp JSW Steel Ltd 1,029.1

    Lanco Resources Australia Griffin Coal Mining Co Pty Ltd 722.7

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    33/43

    Source: Bloomberg, Aranca ResearchNote: MT - Million Tonnes, MoU - Memorandum of Understanding

    Revenues (USD billion)CIL supplied 465.2 MT of coal during FY13, with a record-high increase of over 32 MT in coal offtake

    As per the MoU signed with the Ministry of Coal forFY201314, CIL fixed coal production target at 482 MT andoff-take target at 492 MT

    6.5

    8.1 8.59.4

    11.5

    14.6 12.7

    FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13

    Set up in 1967, Coal India Limited (CIL) is the largest coal mining company in India

    Coal India contributes around 81 per cent of total coal production in India

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    34/43

    Source: Company website, Aranca Research

    Coal production (in million tonnes)The company's strategic overseas ventures with Colombiaand US enabled it to meet India's rising energy demand

    CIL has drawn up a five-year investment plan worthUSD9.32 billion, half of which would be capital investments,including the acquisition of overseas coal assets

    Government has recently allocated 116 coal blocks to CIL

    for expansion

    336.6

    353.3

    377.2

    395.1

    390.0

    392.5

    408.6

    24.3

    26.2

    26.5

    36.1

    41.4

    43.4

    43.7

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    FY12

    FY13

    Non Coking Coal Coking Coal

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    35/43

    Source: Company website, Aranca ResearchNote: Viswakarma Award is for outstanding achievement or good

    performance on the part of workers in increasing productivity,quality, safety, working conditions, import substitution etc.

    CAGR - Compounded Annual Growth Rate

    Revenues (USD billion)SAIL has entered into a Joint Venture with POSCO, Korea;Kobe Steel Limited, Japan; Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd;Larsen & Toubro Ltd; National Mineral DevelopmentCorporation; Hindustan Prefab Ltd; and IRCONInternational Limited, Turkey

    SAIL employees bagged the maximum number ofViswakarma Awards declared in Aug 2009

    SAIL's expansion plan worth USD15 billion will increase itsproduction capacity from 14 million tonnes per year (current)to 24 million tonnes by 2013

    7.1 8.2

    9.0

    8.4 8.9

    9.6 9.8

    FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13

    Incorporated in 1954, Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) is India's second largest producer of iron ore

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    36/43

    Source: Company website, Aranca Research

    Total saleable steel production (million tonnes)It won the Gold Trophy of SCOPE Meritorious Award forR&D, Technology Development & Innovation for 2007-08

    It was also awarded the Corporate Social Responsibility &Responsiveness by the President of India in FY09

    12.6 13.0 12.5 12.6 12.9 12.4

    9.3

    FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    37/43

    Source: WSA, Ernst and Young, Aranca ResearchNote: kg - Kilograms

    Untapped market withstrong growth potential

    Indias per capita steel

    consumption was 59 kg in

    2012 compared with theglobal average of 215 kg

    Rural per capita steel

    consumption is likely to

    reach around 20 kg from

    13 kg currently

    By FY12, a shortfall is

    expected in domesticsupply of steel worth 3-8

    million tonnes

    Scope for new miningcapacities in iron ore,

    bauxite and coal

    India has the worlds fifth-

    largest reserve base of

    bauxite and fourth-largestbase of iron ore

    respectively, and accounts

    for about 7 per cent and 11

    per cent respectively, of

    total world production

    Moreover, India has the

    worlds fifth-largest coal

    reserves and accounts for7.5 per cent of total global

    production

    Rapid growth of user-industries to drive

    demand for metals andminerals

    Strong long-term demand

    from the steel industry is

    expected to further boostthe iron ore industry

    Increasing power

    production is likely to

    catapult demand for coal

    Booming construction,

    automobiles, and

    packaging industries areexpected to lend

    substantial support to the

    metals and mining sector

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    38/43

    Source: PwC, Aranca ResearchNote: MT - Metric Tonnes, MTPA - Metric Tonnes Per Annum

    Exploration in proposed explorationzones

    Odisha: Bonai (Keonjhar belt) andTomka (Daitari and Umerkoke belts)

    Jharkhand: All major high-grade oredeposits contain low-grade lateritic ores

    Karnataka: Bagalkot, Tumkur, andChitradurga districts

    Maharashtra: Sindhudurg, Gadchiroli,and Gondia

    Chhattisgarh: All 14 deposits of Bailadilarange, Dantewada district

    Andhra Pradesh: Kadapa, Kurnool,Karimnagar, Adilabad, and Gunturdistricts

    Opportunities for value-add projectsand agglomeration plants for fines

    utilisation

    Fines production was approximately 126MT in 200910

    Pelletisation capacity is about 24MTPA

    Sintering capacity is about 39MTPA

    Scope for domestic and foreign firms inupcoming PPP opportunities

    Joint venture or technicalparticipation with midcap playerswith lease/license and seekingcapital, expertise and technology

    In coal mines with auctions, andiron ore mines with larger scale

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    39/43

    Aluminium Association of India118, 1st Floor, Ramanashree Arcade18, M. G. RoadBengaluru, Karnataka-560 001Phone: 91- 80-25582197, 25582757Fax: 91-80-25594535E-mail: [email protected]

    Federation of Indian Mineral IndustriesFIMI House, B-311, Okhla Industrial AreaPhase-I, New Delhi-110 020Phone: 91-11- 26814596Fax: 91-11- 26814593E-mail: [email protected]

    Indian Stainless Steel Development AssociationL -22/4, DLF PhaseIIGurgaon, Haryana-122 002Phone: 91-124 - 4375501Fax: 91-124 - 4375509E-mail: [email protected]

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    40/43

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    41/43

    CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

    FDI: Foreign Direct Investment

    FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March)

    So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010

    GOI: Government of India

    IBM : The Indian Bureau of Mines

    MoU: Memorandum of Understanding

    PPP: It could denote two things (mentioned in the presentation accordingly)

    Purchasing Power Parity (used in calculating per-capita GDP)

    Public Private Partnership (a type of joint venture between the public and private sectors)

    PE: Private Equity

    USD: US Dollar

    Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    42/43

    Year INR equivalent of one US$

    2004-05 44.95

    2005-06 44.28

    2006-07 45.28

    2007-08 40.24

    2008-09 45.91

    2009-10 47.41

    2010-11 45.57

    2011-12 47.94

    2012-13 54.31

    Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year)

    Year INR equivalent of one US$

    2005 45.55

    2006 44.34

    2007 39.45

    2008 49.21

    2009 46.76

    2010 45.32

    2011 45.64

    2012 54.69

    2013 54.45

    Exchange Rates (Calendar Year)

    Average for the year

  • 7/29/2019 Metals & Mining - August 2013

    43/43

    India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared

    by Aranca in consultation with IBEF.

    All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The

    same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium

    by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in

    any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF.

    This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this

    presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEFs knowledge and belief, the

    content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice.

    Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in

    this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of

    any reliance placed on this presentation.

    Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission onthe part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.