STEEL PRICES STACK UP AMID TARIFFS

VOLUME

277

AUGUST 2018

Metals

IMPORT PRICESWhile base steel import prices declined in the first half of 2018, the addition of 25% tariffs boosted import prices

DOMESTIC PRICESTariffs increased demand for domestic steel, allowing U.S. steel mills to raise prices, supported by higher scrap costs

IMPORT LEVELSWhile steel imports increased in advance of tariffs, import levels fell once tariffs were in place and exemptions expired

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In This Issue VOLUME

277

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and timing. We’re here to simplify this process for you. Our experts are

dedicated to tracking down and fl ushing out the values you need, even

on the most complex deals. So when the time comes to take your shot

with Great American, you’re always—right on the money.

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Trend Tracker

Overview

Carbon Steel

Aluminum

Copper

Stainless Steel

Monitor Information

Experience

Appraisal & Valuation Team

Zinc About Great American Group

Nickel

MONITOR METALSGREATAMERICAN.COMAUGUST 2018800-45-GREAT

NOLVS

• Ferrous: NOLVs increased versus the prior quarter and

prior year as domestic steel pricing continued to rise in

the wake of implemented steel tariffs and quotas.

• Non-ferrous: NOLVs remained consistent since the prior

quarter and year, as gains in aluminum pricing leveled off

in recent months and pricing for other non-ferrous metals

experienced mixed results.

SALES TRENDS

• Ferrous: Sales increased as higher domestic pricing drove

up dollar sales while demand remained relatively stable;

mill shipments increased amid limited imports.

• Non-ferrous: Sales increased due to higher domestic

prices and stable domestic demand.

GROSS MARGIN

• Ferrous: Gross margins remained consistent over the

past quarter as market pricing continued to increase at a

slower rate; while mill margins have climbed substantially,

downstream margins were stable or down.

• Non-ferrous: Gross margins remained consistent over the

past quarter as pricing began to recede, bringing on-hand

inventory more in line with market conditions.

INVENTORY

• Ferrous: Inventory levels decreased over the last quarter

as imports decreased substantially and service centers

have been replenishing inventory on an as-needed basis

due to the elevated pricing environment.

• Non-ferrous: Inventory levels decreased over the last

quarter as imports declined amid sanctions and tariffs,

with companies now managing their inventory levels in

response to market conditions.

PRICING

• Ferrous: Prices increased over the past quarter due

to Section 232 tariffs and strengthening domestic mill

positions, which allowed mills to demand higher pricing,

given the reduction in steel imports.

• Non-ferrous: Prices remained consistent over the past

quarter, as aluminum prices began to stabilize in recent

months, while pricing for other non-ferrous metals

reflected mixed results.

Trend Tracker

3 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Ferrous Metal Non-Ferrous Metal

NOLVs Increasing Consistent

Sales Trends Increasing Increasing

Gross Margin Consistent Consistent

Inventory Decreasing Decreasing

Pricing Increasing Consistent

4 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Effective March 23, 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs of 25%

on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum, initially

exempting Canada, Mexico, Australia, South Korea, Brazil,

and the EU. Exemptions then fluctuated through May. As of

June 1, steel tariffs applied to all countries of origin except

Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea; aluminum

tariffs applied to all countries of origin except Argentina and

Australia; steel quotas applied to Argentina, Brazil, and South

Korea; and aluminum quotas applied to Argentina.

U.S. allies retaliated, along with non-ally countries such as

China and Turkey, with tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods,

including steel. Collectively, Mexico, the EU, Canada, China,

and Turkey imposed retaliatory tariffs on $23.4 billion of

U.S. goods, per Bloomberg. On July 16, the U.S. launched

formal challenges at the World Trade Organization against

these countries for retaliating. On July 25, the U.S. and EU

announced a preliminary deal to work toward removing tariffs.

Tariffs boosted landed prices for imported steel and aluminum

and also allowed U.S. steel mills to raise prices amid higher

domestic demand. While LME aluminum prices fluctuated

along with trade cues, the Midwest premium increased due

to tariffs. Preliminary June steel imports fell 36.8% year-over-

year and 15.3% month-over-month due to tariffs, per the

U.S. Commerce Department. Aluminum imports from most

countries did not decline significantly and actually increased

in some cases, despite tariffs. Recent overall aluminum import

declines were driven by sanctions against Rusal imposed in

early April, although these sanctions may be reversed.

The U.S. purchasing managers’ index decreased 2.1

percentage points to 58.1 in July versus June, but reflected

strong growth in manufacturing for the 23rd consecutive

month and growth in the economy for the 111th consecutive

month. The oil and gas industry is stabilizing, with the Baker

Hughes’ U.S. oil and gas rig count rising only two units from

the prior week and 90 units from the prior year to total 1,048

units for the week ended July 27, 2018. U.S. auto sales

declined in July due to lower demand for passenger cars and

a shift toward lightly used vehicles. IHS Markit analysts project

2018 new-vehicle sales will reach 17 million vehicles given

continued demand for SUVs, crossovers, and pickup trucks.

However, steel and aluminum tariffs, as well as the resulting

trade wars, remain concerns for end-markets.

Recent price trends for base metals varied in response to

a hodgepodge of trade news. While copper, zinc, and lead

prices generally slipped since the start of the year, nickel

prices climbed and aluminum prices remained comparatively

stable. China, the chief consumer of base metals, reduced

its consumption of most metals in the first quarter, except

copper consumption, which increased 6.1%. However, an

impending slowdown in Chinese construction could temper

copper demand. In addition, a trade war with the U.S. could

negatively impact Chinese demand for base metals.

Two minor metals, lithium and cobalt, are starting to grow in

popularity given their value in battery production for electric

vehicles (“EV”). As the EV market expands, lithium and cobalt

may become more important players in the metals market.

Overview

Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, the in-flux nature of country exemptions and project exclusions from these tariffs, and the resulting trade wars have added a measure of uncertainty to the market. Domestic steel prices and aluminum premiums surged over the first half of 2018 due to the anticipation and implementation of tariffs.

UTILIZATION RATES

As ferrous scrap is a key raw material for raw steel production,

capability utilization rates for steel mills are an indicator

of ferrous scrap demand. The American Iron and Steel

Institute reported that domestic raw steel production totaled

1,836,000 net tons in the week ended July 28, 2018, up

1.2% from the previous week, and increasing 5.9% from the

same week in 2017. Capability utilization reached 78.3%, up

from 77.4% the prior week and from 74.3% the same week

the previous year.

Adjusted year-to-date production through July 28, 2018

totaled 53,356,000 net tons at a capability utilization rate of

76.4%, up 3.1% from 51,770,000 net tons the same period

last year, when the capability utilization rate was 74.4%.

Utilization rates above 80% typically denote optimal

profitability, and market participants consider a level of

90% as healthy. Most of the U.S. steel industry has operated

below 80% capability utilization since November 2014.

Recent increases in raw steel production and capability

utilization rates were aided in part by steel tariffs diverting

some demand toward domestic mills.

5 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Carbon Steel

SCRAP

Shredded carbon steel scrap prices averaged $366 per gross

ton in July 2018, slipping from $370 the prior month, but

rising from $338 in January 2018.

Carbon Shredded Steel Scrap - Domestic Delivered MillMonthly Average Price/Gross Ton - July 2017 to 2018

Scrap prices climbed over the first half of the year as steel

mills increased capability utilization, due in part to the recent

steel tariffs, which boosted domestic demand. In recent

months, scrap prices began to slip slightly as markets had

already adjusted pricing in the wake of Section 232 tariffs.

However, according to Steel Business Briefing (“SBB”), as

the typical spring softening or summer correction had not yet

materialized this year, market participants foresee a larger

drop in ferrous scrap prices in August. In the first week of

August, prime scrap grades trended down $10 per gross ton,

while obsolete scrap grades trended down $20 per gross ton.

On August 1, S&P Global Platts assessed shredded scrap at

$351 per gross ton, delivered Midwest mill.

1

$275

$285

$295

$305

$315

$325

$335

$345

$355

$365

$375

Week EndedProduction(In Millions)

Change Vs. Prior Year

January 20, 2018 1.693 (2.5%)

February 24 1.783 0.7%

March 17 1.826 6.4%

April 28 1.754 1.9%

May 19 1.775 3.3%

June 23 1.772 1.4%

July 28, 2018 1.836 5.9%

YTD July 28, 2018 53.36 3.1%

PLATE

A36 steel plate prices averaged $967 per net ton in July

2018, increasing from $961 the prior month, and remaining

above the January 2018 average of $763, per SBB.

Average plate pricing in July climbed 26.7% since the

beginning of this year. Similar to hot and cold rolled coil, steel

plate prices increased as mills raised pricing due to tariffs

and strong demand. However, while hot and cold rolled coil

prices experienced some volatility more recently, plate prices

remain buoyed by long lead times, strong OEM demand, tight

spot availability given quotas on imports of South Korean steel,

and an upcoming maintenance outage at SSAB’s plate mill in

Iowa, according to SBB.

One East Coast distributor reported that plate mills are

considering another price increase, given current conditions.

On August 1, the daily Platts TSI assessment for U.S. plate

increased to $982 per net ton, delivered Midwest. Some

market participants believe more price increases could be in

store, as supplies are expected to tighten further in the third

quarter, although the fourth quarter remains a question mark.

6 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Carbon Steel

CARBON STEEL SHEET COIL

Hot rolled coil prices averaged $918 per net ton in July 2018,

up from $906 the prior month, and remaining above the

January 2018 average of $682, per SBB. Cold rolled coil

prices averaged $1,008 in July 2018, down from $1,012 in

June, but remaining above the January 2018 average of $848.

Average hot and cold rolled prices in July climbed 34.6%

and 18.9%, respectively, since the beginning of this year,

as healthy domestic demand was compounded by tariffs

on steel imports, with exemptions for the EU, Mexico, and

Canada expiring as of June 1. However, the market remains

cautious, taking a wait-and-see approach given the shifting

trade dynamics. On August 1, the daily Platts TSI pricing

assessments for hot and cold rolled coil were $913 and

$1,011, respectively.

In addition, it remains to be seen how contracts develop as

the fourth quarter approaches, which could affect the share of

spot business versus contract business in 2019. The potential

reduction in discounts associated with contracts during

negotiations could lead to a shift toward spot business.

Hot and Cold Rolled Coil - Domestic FOB Midwest MillMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 2018

3 Steel Plate (A36) - Domestic FOB Southeast MillMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 2018

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,0002

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

Hot Rolled Coil Cold Rolled Coil

OCTG

Prices for grade J55 electric resistance welded (“ERW”)

material, 4 1/2” to 8 5/8”, averaged $1,325 per net ton in

July 2018, consistent with the prior month, but rising from the

January 2018 average of $975, per SBB.

OCTG prices climbed over the first half of the year amid

momentum from the Section 232 steel tariffs and healthy

demand in the earlier months. However, the price increase has

begun to level out, as the higher pricing is not being matched

by higher demand. The oil and gas industry is stabilizing, with

the Baker Hughes’ U.S. oil and gas rig count rising only two

units from the prior week and 90 units from the prior year to

total 1,048 units for the week ended July 27, 2018, compared

to the week-over-week and year-over-year increases of 13 and

160 rigs, respectively, for the week ended May 11, 2018.

Market participants therefore remain cautious, awaiting market

cues before purchasing. According to American Metals Market,

OCTG prices began to fall off at the end of July and into August,

with one trader marking the drop as an adjustment rather

than a true correction, given the sufficient supplies held by

distributors for the remainder of the year.

7 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Carbon Steel

REBAR

Prices for rebar, U.S. domestic ex-works Southeast, averaged

$698 per net ton in July 2018, remaining consistent since

April, but increasing from $580 in January 2018, per SBB.

Average rebar pricing in July climbed 20.3% since the

beginning of this year due to healthy demand and increased

buying activity in advance of Section 232 tariffs. More

recently, rebar prices stabilized after tariffs were in place, with

summer demand remaining steady. While demand typically

remains strong in the third quarter, demand may ease by the

end of the year.

$520

$540

$560

$580

$600

$620

$640

$660

$680

$700

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

$1,250

$1,300

$1,350

Rebar - Domestic EXW SoutheastMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 20184

J55 ERWMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 20185

However, the U.S. Treasury indicated on July 23 that it

was open to removing Rusal from the U.S. sanctions list.

Meanwhile, the Midwest premium surged 81% in the first half

of 2018 due to aluminum tariffs, according to Argus Metals,

reaching $0.20 per pound in July. Aluminum prices on the

London Metal Exchange (“LME”) fluctuated in the first half

of 2018 due to varying trade news before stabilizing more

recently as the market awaits trade cues.

Aluminum imports from most countries did not decline

significantly and actually increased in some cases, despite

tariffs. While overall aluminum imports, excluding Canada,

decreased 32.6% in May 2018 versus May 2017, the decline

was driven by sanctions imposed in early April against Rusal.

May 2018 unwrought aluminum imports from Russia dropped

83.6% from the prior month and 94.3% from the prior year.

While analysts forecast a global aluminum deficit of

approximately 771,400 tons in 2018, this figure is likely to

be reduced given the volatile trade environment and softer

demand, and LME pricing forecasts for the third quarter have

been revised downward from an average of $1.03 per pound

to $0.95 per pound.

8 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Aluminum

Prices for P1020 primary aluminum ingot averaged $1.15 per

pound in July 2018, decreasing from $1.23 the prior month,

but remaining above the January 2018 average of $1.11.

The Midwest transaction price for P1020 aluminum ingot

increased 4.4% from January 2018 through June 2018,

peaking at $1.25 in May due to sanctions imposed in early

April against Russia-based Rusal, the world’s second-largest

aluminum company.

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

P1020 Primary Aluminum Ingot - Delivered MidwestMonthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 20186

9 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Copper

7 CopperLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 2018

The market price for copper on the LME averaged $2.83

per pound in July 2018, down from $3.15 the prior month

and $3.21 in January 2018. As China is the world’s largest

consumer of refined copper, prices have felt downward

pressure from the trade war between the U.S. and China, and

an impending slowdown in Chinese construction could also

temper copper demand. Should the trade conflict spur a sell-

off in the equity markets, copper prices could drop further,

according to INTL FCStone.

Copper fundamentals are also soft, given the surplus of

66,120 tons in the global refined copper market through April

2018, although this marks a decrease from the 168,600-

ton surplus recorded at the end of the first quarter, per

the International Copper Study Group. Copper production

in Indonesia and Japan climbed from last year after the

resolution of a strike and maintenance shutdown, while world

mine production continues to grow; however, supplies could

be threatened by labor concerns at the Escondida mine. Zinc

Zinc prices on the LME averaged $1.21 per pound in July

2018, down from $1.40 the prior month and $1.56 in January

2018. Zinc prices dropped from the 10-year high of $1.63 per

pound recorded in February as the market responded to the

uncertainty surrounding steel tariffs and exemptions, which

triggered fears of disruptions to the supply for zinc used in

steel galvanizing.

However, market fundamentals suggest a tightness in supply

for zinc concentrates, given the lack of growth in global mine

production, lower treatment charges, and word of forthcoming

Chinese production cuts, according to the International Lead

and Zinc Study Group. Analysts forecast a global zinc deficit in

the third quarter.

$2.60

$2.70

$2.80

$2.90

$3.00

$3.10

$3.20

$3.30

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

$1.55

$1.60

$1.65

ZincLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 20188

10 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Nickel

9 NickelLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 2018

Nickel prices on the LME averaged $6.25 per pound in July

2018, declining from $6.85 the prior month, but remaining

above the January 2018 average of $5.84. While pricing

momentum slowed recently in line with most other base

metals due to the uncertain trade landscape, nickel prices

remain in a long-term upward trend, according to Metal Miner.

The International Nickel Study Group (“INSG”) reported a

global refined nickel market deficit of 39,100 metric tons

in the first quarter of 2018, which exceeded the deficit of

27,100 in the first quarter of 2017. For the full year of 2018,

INSG anticipates a deficit of 117,000 metric tons. However,

Nornickel, a mining company, foresees a smaller deficit of

70,000 metric tons for 2018, given the strong growth in

stainless steel production.

Stainless Steel

In July 2018, prices for grades 301 (7%), 304 (8%), and 316

stainless steel averaged $1.50, $1.59, and $2.13 per pound,

respectively, decreasing from the prior month, but remaining

above January 2018 levels. Stainless steel prices increased

in the first half of 2018 amid supply concerns related to trade

actions, and as rising nickel prices boosted stainless steel

surcharges. More recently, however, pricing stabilized.

Domestic stainless steel producers recently reported positive

second-quarter results. Universal Stainless & Alloy Products

logged a 26% jump in sales driven by strong demand from

all end-markets except for power generation. Allegheny

Technologies, Inc. recorded a 15% increase in second-quarter

sales, with robust results for flat rolled products due to solid

demand from several end-markets, as well as higher nickel

and ferrochrome surcharges.

$4.20

$4.40

$4.60

$4.80

$5.00

$5.20

$5.40

$5.60

$5.80

$6.00

$6.20

$6.40

$6.60

$6.80

$7.00

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

Grade 301 (7%) Grade 304 (8%) Grade 316

Stainless Steel Cold Rolled CoilLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 201810

The Metals Monitor provides market value trends in both

ferrous and non-ferrous metals. The commodity nature of

steel scrap, aluminum ingot, copper cathode, zinc, and

nickel often results in volatile market values. Our quarterly

Metals Monitor reflects pricing and market trends in order

to reflect significant developments in the metals markets.

The information contained herein is based on a composite

of GA’s industry expertise, contact with industry personnel,

industry publications, liquidation and appraisal experience,

and data compiled from a variety of well-respected sources.

GA does not make any representation or warranty, expressed

or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the

information contained in this issue. Neither GA nor any of its

representatives shall be liable for use of any of the information

in this issue or any errors therein or omissions therefrom.

Should you need any further information or wish to discuss

recovery ranges for a particular segment, please feel free to

contact your GA Business Development Officer. In addition,

contact a GA Business Development Officer for a Metals

Pricing Sheet or to make specific pricing requests.

Monitor Information

Experience

GA’s extensive record of metals inventory valuations features companies throughout the entire metal supply chain, including

foreign and domestic metal- and steel-producing mills; metal converters that produce tubing and pipe, as well as expanded,

grating, and perforated metal types; metal service centers/processors and distributors; structural and custom fabricators and

stampers; manufacturers that utilize metals as raw materials; and scrap yards, recyclers, dealers, and brokers. GA has also

appraised precious and specialty metals. GA has appraised metal products with applications in a wide variety of industries,

including the automotive, construction, aerospace, industrial machinery, appliance, and electrical equipment markets.

GA’s appraisal experience includes valuations of major businesses in the metals industry, including the following sampling:

• Steel mini-mills and producers of flat rolled steel products.

• Globally recognized vertically integrated manufacturers and distributors of steel tube, including OCTG.

• A vertically integrated producer of aluminum with over $1 billion in sales annually and over $130 million in inventory.

• A number of the largest scrap recycling processors in the U.S.

• Well-known service centers across the nation, including a multi-division full-line steel service center.

Moreover, GA has liquidated a number of companies with metal products, including Charleston Aluminum, Advanced

Composites, Aluminum Skylight & Specialty Corporation, Anello Corporation, Apex Pattern, Balox Fabricators, BJS Industries,

Buckner Foundry, Crown City Plating, GE Roto Flow, Laird Technology, Maddox Metal Works, Miller Pacific Steel, R.D.

Black Sheet Metal, Valley Brass Foundry, and Southline Steel. GA has also been involved in liquidations of metalworking

equipment for companies such as Adams Campbell Company, CAMtech Precision Manufacturing, Inc., Gregg Industries, Inc.,

International Piping Systems, Heat Transfer Products, PMC Machining and Manufacturing, Sherrill Manufacturing, Trans-Matic

Manufacturing, Veristeel, Inc., and Weiland Steel, Inc. In addition, GA maintains a staff of experienced metals experts with

personal contacts within the metals industry that we utilize for insight and perspective on recovery values.

11 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Appraisal & Valuation Team

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

Scott Carpenter

President, GA Retail Solutions

(818) 746-9365

scarpenter@greatamerican.com

Adam Alexander

President, GA Global Partners

(818) 648-6000

aalexander@greatamerican.com

ASSET DISPOSITION TEAM

Drew Jakubek

Managing Director

Southwest Region

(214) 455-7081

djakubek@greatamerican.com

Bill Soncini

Managing Director

Midwest Region

(773) 495-4534

bsoncini@greatamerican.com

David Seiden

Executive Vice President

Southeast Region

(404) 808-8153

dseiden@greatamerican.com

Daniel J. Williams

Managing Director

New York Region

(908) 251-3580

dwilliams@greatamerican.com

Ryan Mulcunry

Executive Vice President

Northeast Region, Canada & Europe

(857) 231-1711

rmulcunry@greatamerican.com

Jennie Kim

Senior Vice President

Western Region

(818) 974-0602

jkim@greatamerican.com

12 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018

Michael Petruski

Executive VP, General Manager

(561) 771-6886

mpetruski@greatamerican.com

OPERATIONS

Barry Lauer

Metals Consultant

John Mitchell

Metals Consultant

Kristi Faherty

Managing Director

(781) 429-4060

kfaherty@greatamerican.com

Ryan Lutz

Senior Project Manager

(781) 429-4052

rlutz@greatamerican.com

Chad P. Yutka, ASA

Managing Director, CAVS Group

(312) 909-6078

cyutka@greatamerican.com

Greg Trilevsky

Metals Consultant

Alex Tereszcuk

Metals Consultant

Dan Tracy

Metals Consultant

John Little

Metals Consultant

Matthew Zoia

Associate Project Manager

(781) 429-4062

mzoia@greatamerican.com

Great American Group is a leading provider of asset

disposition solutions and valuation and appraisal services to

a wide range of retail, wholesale, and industrial clients, as

well as lenders, capital providers, private equity investors,

and professional services firms. In addition to the Metals

Monitor, GA also provides clients with industry expertise

in the form of monitors for the chemicals and plastics,

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among many others. For more information, please visit

www.greatamerican.com.

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The company operates through several wholly-owned

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About Great American Group

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MONITOR METALSGREATAMERICAN.COMAUGUST 2018800-45-GREAT

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