Met Office Hadley CentreClimate Programme 2012–2015

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Met Office Hadley CentreClimate Programme 2012–2015

Fiona CarrollKnowledge Integration


Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2012 - 2015

Purpose of Met Office Hadley Centre

To provide up-to-date, robust and traceable scientific advice to HM Government on climate variability and climate change based on world-leading science

Core of the UK’s national climate capability

Resources

~ 2/3 DECC and Defra funding for Climate Programme to address UK Government’s key climate questions

~ 180 staff – scientific and support

Substantial gearing from location within Met Office


Work of Climate Programme

• Monitoring global and national climate• Understanding the climate system and

representing it in climate models• Predicting future change and impacts• Attributing recent change to causes• Providing advice to government• Communicating the science

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Policy Channel A:Climate monitoring and attribution

Observing the climate system

Monitor trends and extremes in climate and review observational needs

Attributing causes of change

• Global and regional-scale climate and extremes – e.g. temperature, precipitation and humidity

• Assess changes in risk of extreme events

• Development of a near-real time system to attribute extreme events (ACE)


Policy Channel B:Dangerous climate change (impacts, vulnerabilities and risks)

Arctic and Antarctic

• Near-real time briefings on the state of Arctic sea-ice

• What role does Arctic sea ice melt have on atmospheric circulation (and therefore regional conditions)?

The Meridional Overturning Circulation

• Impact of observed slowdown in 2009 / 2010 on regional climate

Methane

• Release from permafrost and wetlands

Sea level

• Reversibility of regional sea level rise.

September Arctic sea ice extent


Scoping HMG requirements of climate science evidence to inform UK renewable energy provision

Projections relevant to wind and non-wind renewable energy generation in the UK

Relationships between renewable energy generation sources across Europe.

Policy Channel C:Evidence to inform UK and international energy policy


Policy Channel D:Evidence to inform UK and international mitigation policy

Global projections

Global temperature change and other variables e.g. river run-off and permafrost extent for different emissions scenarios

Climate impact assessments

Building on the climate impact assessments presented at UNFCCC Durban

Land use

Assessment of the physical and biogeochemical impacts of land use in a mitigation context.


Policy Channel E:Evidence to inform UK and international adaptation policy

Potential updates of UKCP09:

• seasonal resolution

• long return-period extreme events

Three different emission scenarios

Seven different timeframes

25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions

UKCP09


• The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme provides world-class scientific evidence on climate variability and change to UK Government.

• Over the three years the Programme will output ~130 outputs in the form of papers and reports, plus many briefings.

• These outputs rely on the extensive underpinning research and model development which forms the backbone of the UK’s national climate capability.


Summary

Met Office Hadley CentreClimate Programme 2012–2015

Business

Transcript of Met Office Hadley CentreClimate Programme 2012–2015