Mesoscale Objective Analysis:Mesoscale Objective Analysis:An Analysis of Record?An Analysis of Record?

John HorelJohn HorelNOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional PredictionNOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction

Department of MeteorologyDepartment of MeteorologyUniversity of UtahUniversity of Utah

jhorel@met.utah.edujhorel@met.utah.edu

Brad ColmanBrad ColmanSeattle Weather Forecast OfficeSeattle Weather Forecast Office

brad.colman@noaa.govbrad.colman@noaa.gov

Co-ChairsCo-ChairsMesoscale Analysis CommitteeMesoscale Analysis Committee

NWS Office of Science and TechnologyNWS Office of Science and Technology

http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/homepages/jhorel/mac.htm

ContextContext• Admiral Lautenbacher

– “Observations alone are often meaningless without the actions that provide economic and societal benefit”

• Comprehensive weather and climate observing system requires integration and synthesis of observations into gridded analyses of current and past states of atmosphere

• NWS has critical need to produce real-time and retrospective analyses at high resolution to help create and verify gridded forecasts as part of NWS Digital Services Program (L. Spayd IIPS Thursday)

Societal Benefits

Climate Variability and

ChangeOcean

Resources

DisastersEnergy

HealthAgriculture

EcosystemWater Resources

GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems”GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems”

Global Observing Systems

GCOSGOOSGTOS

WHYCOSWorld Weather

IGBPIOOSCEOSIGOS

Global Observing Systems

GCOSGOOSGTOS

WHYCOSWorld Weather

IGBPIOOSCEOSIGOS

National/Multinational Observing Systems

Satellites

Surface Obs.

Radar

Aircraft

Ocean Observations

Paleo-data

National/Multinational Observing Systems

Satellites

Surface Obs.

Radar

Aircraft

Ocean Observations

Paleo-data

Private Sector Observing Systems

Satellites

Mesonets

Lightning

Commercial Aircraft

Private Sector Observing Systems

Satellites

Mesonets

Lightning

Commercial Aircraft

3

Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

P. Arkin

Global Earth Observing System of Systems

Proposed Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

(http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/) for pdf version of report and background information from the workshop.

Workshop 18-20 August 2003, Boulder, ColoradoWorkshop 18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado

P. Arkin

• Integrate and analyze global observations

• Describe and monitor climate variations and their causes as they occur

• Understand and model climate changes and their origins

• Assess impacts regionally: on environment, human activities and sectors such as agriculture, energy, fisheries, water resources, etc.

See also Trenberth et al. (2002) BAMS

NWS Traditional Forecasting ProcessNWS Traditional Forecasting Process

– Schedule Driven

– Product Oriented

– Labor Intensive

National CentersNational CentersGenerate Graphical ProductsGenerate Graphical Products

National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance

Field OfficesField OfficesType Text ProductsType Text Products

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

MARYLAND EASTERN SHOREEASTONPTCLDY CLOUDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY60/52 63/54 65/47 55/40 55/37 50/33POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10

MARYLAND EASTERN SHOREEASTONPTCLDY CLOUDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY60/52 63/54 65/47 55/40 55/37 50/33POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10

U.S. Drought U.S. Drought MonitorMonitor

Excessive Heat Excessive Heat ProductsProducts

Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments

User-Generated ProductsUser-Generated Products

NWS New Forecasting ProcessNWS New Forecasting Process

• Interactive– Collaborative– Information

Oriented

NWS Automated ProductsNWS Automated Products

TextText

GraphicGraphic

DigitalDigital

VoiceVoice

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%. National Digital National Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Local Digital Local Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Field Field OfficesOffices

National National CentersCenters

CollaborateCollaborate

Data and Science FocusData and Science Focus

National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance

High Resolution GridsHigh Resolution Grids

InteractiveForecastPreparationSystem (IFPS)

How Do We Know if the Interactive Forecast How Do We Know if the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) Approach Will Preparation System (IFPS) Approach Will

Be Better?Be Better?

Concerns raised:– C. Mass (2003) WAF– WR SOO/DOH IFPS white paper provided

recommendations:• Develop a national real-time, gridded verification system• Provide full-resolution NCEP model grids• Objectively produce bias-corrected model grids for WFO use• Implement methods to objectively downscale forecast grids• Incorporate climatology grids into the GFE process• Deliver short and medium-range ensemble grids• Modify the GFE software to ingest real-time data • Optimize ways to tap forecaster expertise

Analysis of RecordAnalysis of Record

• Best possible analyses of the atmosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution with particular attention placed on weather and climate conditions near the surface

Needs for AOR Needs for AOR

• NWS gridded forecast preparation and verification

• Mesoscale modeling• Dispersion modeling for transport of hazardous

materials and pollutants• Homeland defense• Aviation and surface transportation• Environmental issues from coastal zone to fire

management• Impacts of climate change on regional scale

A Community Meeting on Real-time and A Community Meeting on Real-time and Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis:Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis:

An Analysis of Record SummitAn Analysis of Record Summit June 2004June 2004

Co-chairs: Brad Colman and John HorelCo-chairs: Brad Colman and John Horel• Can research and operations work together to

define approaches for an analysis of record?• Are there clearly definable requirements and

objectives?• Can we make a compelling business case to fund

the R&D, testing, and implementation?

IssuesIssues

• Real time vs. retrospective needs

• How can AOR resolve detailed microclimates, synoptic and mesoscale weather & localized severe weather?

• NDFD verification needs vs. other needs

• 2-dimensional surface analysis approaches, statistical & dynamical downscaling vs. 3-dimensional data assimilation strategies?

• How can biases of underlying modeling system be minimized?

• How can uncertainty be quantified and expressed to the end user?

• What is possible now vs. what might be possible in a few years?

RecommendationsRecommendations• 1. Proceed rapidly to foster AOR program that meets diverse needs for high spatial

and temporal resolution mesoscale analyses

• 2. AOR program should lead to suite of consistent products:

– Provisional mesoscale analyses available within roughly 30 minutes of the valid time

– Mesoscale analyses completed a day or so after the valid time

– “Gold standard” AOR would be an archive-quality analysis/reanalysis

• 3. Community support for an AOR project must be broadened

• 4. Ongoing research and development efforts supported by other programs are critical to the future success of the AOR program:

– WRF R&D

– COOP modernization

• 5. Mesoscale Analysis Committee (MAC) should be formed that reports to the Director of the NWS Office of Science and Technology

Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13-14, 2004October 13-14, 2004

• Recommendations for a prototype Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA):– Available hourly within 30 min of valid time– Prototype products on NDFD 5 km grid must be

available for testing by WFOs and other within 6 months

– Analysis products for moisture, temperature, wind– Coordination with OHD and NESDIS for ppt and sky

cover– Quality assurance and estimates of analysis

uncertainty must be incorporated into analysis system

Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13-14, 2004October 13-14, 2004

• Proposed plan for a prototype Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) :– GFS/Eta model used for initial and lateral boundary

conditions for hourly 20 km RUC– FSL will modify RUC postprocessing to downscale

RUC 20 km grid to 5 km grid– EMC will continue development and implementation

of 2DVAR for temperature, moisture and wind– Quality assurance efforts will include cross validation

and estimate of analysis uncertainty– Separate univariate analyses for ppt and sky cover.

OHD and NESDIS lead efforts

Making Progress?Making Progress?

• Coordination between NCEP and FSL efforts beginning

• QPE working group meeting in San Diego

• Placeholder in budget planning process for FY06-11

• See http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/homepages/jhorel/mac.htm

for updates

Comments?Comments?Send email to mac_chairs@met.utah.edu

MAC Committee:• Robert Aune, NOAA/NESDIS University of Wisconsin Space Sciences and Engineering Center • Stanley Benjmain, Forecast Systems Laboratory• Craig Bishop, Naval Research Laboratory • Keith A. Brewster, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms The University of Oklahoma • Brad Colman, Committee Co-chair NOAA/National Weather Service• Christopher Daly, Spatial Climate Analysis Climate Service Oregon State University • Geoff DiMego, NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction • Joshua P. Hacker, National Center for Atmospheric Research • John Horel, Committee Co-chair Department of Meteorology University of Utah • Steven Koch, Forecast Systems Laboratory • Steven Lazarus, Florida Institute of Technology • Jennifer Mahoney, Aviation Division Forecast Systems Laboratory • David Sharp, National Weather Service Melbourne Weather Forecast Office • John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Ex Officio • Andy Edman. Science & Technology Committee representative • LeRoy Spayd. Meteorological Services Division representative • Gary Carter. Office of Hydrology representative • Kenneth Crawford. COOP/ISOS representative