Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research...
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![Page 1: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration
Paul SchultzNOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory
Global Systems Division(formerly Forecast Systems Laboratory)
![Page 2: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Domain for 2005 MDSSdemonstration
![Page 3: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Ensemble configuration
• Two models (WRF, MM5)
• Re-initialized with new radar, satellite data every hour– Surface obs, profilers, GPS vapor, ACARS …
• Forecasts out to 18 hours
• Transmitted in real time to NCAR
![Page 4: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Temperature verification statistics
Temperature (deg C)
Wind speed (m/s)
Dewpoint (deg C)
RMS bias RMS bias RMS bias
MM5 3.2 +0.2 2.4 +1.6 3.7 +1.5
WRF 3.0 +1.3 2.3 +1.3 3.7 +2.2
Eta 2.7 +0.5 2.7 -0.2 2.6 +1.7
Table 1. 12-h forecast verification statistics from the 2004 MDSS demonstration conducted in Iowa.
Temperature (deg C)
Wind speed (m/s)
Dewpoint (deg C)
RMS bias RMS bias RMS bias
MM5 3.2 +0.9 2.2 +0.7 3.3 +1.5
WRF 3.2 +1.0 2.2 +1.2 3.9 +2.2
Eta 2.3 +0.5 2.1 +0.4 2.8 +1.1
Table 2. 12-h forecast verification statistics from the 2005 MDSS demonstration conducted in Colorado.
![Page 5: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
A closer lookWRF temperature bias
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-0.5
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Forecast hour
Bia
s (d
eg C
)
00Z
01Z
02Z
03Z
04Z
05Z
06Z
07Z
08Z
09Z
10Z
11Z
12Z
Figure 5. Time series of temperature forecast biases from WRF.
![Page 6: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Case of 10 April 2005
WRF temperature forecasts
-3
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6
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4/10/05 0:00 4/10/05 6:00 4/10/05 12:00 4/10/05 18:00 4/11/05 0:00 4/11/05 6:00 4/11/05 12:00
time
tem
per
atu
re
observations
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06Z
12Z
18Z
00Z
Eta temperature forecasts
-3
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4/10/05 0:00 4/10/05 6:00 4/10/05 12:00 4/10/05 18:00 4/11/05 0:00 4/11/05 6:00 4/11/05 12:00
time
tem
pera
ture
observations
00Z
06Z
12Z
18Z
00Z
![Page 7: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Precipitation verification
Figure 7. Three-hour precipitation forecast verification from the 2004 MDSS demonstration in Iowa.
Figure 8. Three-hour precipitation forecast verification from the 2005 MDSS demonstration in Colorado.
![Page 8: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
LAPS hot start initialization eliminates precipitation spin-up in
numerical weather predictionEquitable skill score for WRF QPF > .01"
during 2005 MDSS demonstration
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Forecast (h)
Eq
uit
able
ski
ll s
core
WRF
Typical spin-up (artist’s
conception)
![Page 9: Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081908/56649ed95503460f94be7084/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Issues
• Vertical resolution– Resolving shallow cold air masses– Time step impacts
• Surface fluxes– Implementation of HRLDAS– Assimilation of soil temperature data
• Initialization– Hot start errors– Detection/correction of upstream problems
• Funding– Future is severely threatened