Merrill Lynch Speciality Finance Conference 25 November...
Transcript of Merrill Lynch Speciality Finance Conference 25 November...
Merrill Lynch
Speciality Finance Conference
25 November 2002
International Development
Provident FinancialGroup strategy
> UK home credit: good returns, strong cashflow but relatively mature
> Potential from the export of home credit to new markets
> Target combined pre-tax profit of £75m p.a from our Polish and Czech businesses within 5 years
> Established pilot operations in Hungary and Slovakia in 2001 andannounced full roll out in July this year
> Further countries intended for 2003 and beyond
> International expansion is a key element of strategy for future growth
Provident FinancialVital statistics
> 2001 profit before tax: £170 million
> Market capitalisation: £1.7 billion
> Business sectors: Unsecured consumer lending
Motor insurance underwriting
> Customers: 3.5 million customers
Provident FinancialInternational business
2001
Provident Financial
What is home credit?
Provident FinancialWhat is home credit?
• Small unsecured, cash loans
• Delivered and collected in the home
• Service provided by self-employed agents
• Weekly repayment
• Woman to woman
• Fixed charges
• Simple and convenient
> Small unsecured, cash loans
> Delivered and collected in the home
> Service provided by self-employed agents
> Weekly repayment
> Woman to woman
> Fixed charges
> Simple and convenient
Uses of home creditProvident Financial
> Balancing the household budget
> Holiday spending money
> Christmas presents
> School expenses for children
International home creditProvident Financial
> Poland
> Czech Republic
> Hungary
> Slovakia
Provident FinancialInternational home credit
Poland Czech Hungary Slovakia Total
Population (million) 39 10 10 5 64
Estimated market size (000) 2,000 500 500 250 3,250
Target customers (000) 1,000 250 250 125 1,625
Current customers (000) 576 209 33 15 844
Target annual credit issued percustomer (£) 400 400 400 270 390
Target annual profitper customer (£) 60 60 60 40 58
TargetsPoland
> Population 39 million
> Estimated market size 2 million
> Customers 1 million
> Target annual credit issued per customer £400
> Target annual profit per customer £60
PolandPolandProgress towards targets
Annual profit per customer
Annual credit issued per customer
CustomersEstimated market size
£21
£346
561,0002 million
£60
£400
1 million2 million
June 2002Target
PolandProgress towards targets
49.760.0 10.3Profit
GapTarget 2002Year to 30 June: £m
----
131.3230.9
----
220.0400.0
(35.8)(15.8)(12.6)(14.2)
88.7169.1
ExpensesBad debtInterestAgent commissionRevenueCredit issued
Total costs 160.0 78.4 81.6
Poland
Customer growth: 561,000 1,000,000
Issue per customer: £346 £400
Gross revenue margin: 52% 55%
Costs as % of revenue: 88% 73%
PolandKey performance drivers
> Customer growth
> Issue per customer
> Gross revenue margin
> Costs as % of revenue
1,000,000
£400
55%
73%
561,000
£346
52%
88%
PolandCustomer growth: the market
> 2 million potential market
> Target segments
> Competition
> The market
> Target segments
> Competition
PolandCustomer growth: customer numbers (000’s)
576561504416
305164
7232100.4 3
Dec 97 Jun 98Dec 98 Jun 99 Dec 99 Jun 00 Dec 00 Jun 01Dec 01 Jun 02 Aug 02
PolandIssue per customer
£346
£164
£237
2 loans per year
1.7 loans per year
£400 > Target increase
> Typical first loan issue value
> Average re-serve issue value
> Target loans per customer
> Currently
> Introduction of multiple loans
PolandMarketing materials
Polish TV campaign December 2001Poland
PolandGross revenue margin
26-week(zloty)
39-week(zloty)
52-week(zloty)
Typical loan amount 750 1,100 1,600
Charges 379 723 1,179
Gross revenue margin 50.5% 65.7% 73.7%
Total amount payable 1,129 1,823 2,779
Weekly rate 43.43 46.75 53.44
PolandPolandCosts
*Interest - reported N/A14TotalInterest - like for like*ExpensesBad debtCommission
4684
241723UK12 months to June 2002
Costs as % of revenue
7385-11-40-18-16
TargetPoland
PolandBad debt as a percentage of credit issued
4.2 3.5 4.3 3.95.9
7.59.3
2.8
Dec 98 Jun 99 Dec 99 Jun 00 Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 02
PolandExpenses
Total
Infrastructure costs
Marketing and PR
Employee related expenses
100
29
10
61
%
PolandEmployee-related costs: employee numbers
23 78 206 326
8001,048
1,505 1,594 1,597 1,599
23
Dec 97 Jun 98 Dec 98 Jun 99 Dec 99 Jun 00 Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 02 Aug 02
PolandInfrastructure costs: branches
1 3 7 10
3341
51 53 54
1
Dec 97 Jun 98 Dec 98 Jun 99 Dec 99 Jun 00 Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Aug 02
Branches Interview rooms
Szczecin
GorzówWielkopolski
Gdań sk
Poznań
Wrocł aw
Kraków
Warszawa
Lublin
Łódź
Radom
Sochaczew Siedlce
Opole
Kielce
Rzeszów
Biał ystok
Olsztyn
Bydgoszcz
Piotrków Tryb.
Toruń
Czę stochowa
ZielonaGóra
Łomż a
Łowicz
Augustów
Leszno GarwolinSkierniewice
Gniezno
Puł awy
Puł tusk
Rawa Maz.
Radomsko
NowySą cz
Sosnowiec
Łuków
Zawiercie
Wyszków
Wał brzych
Kraś nik
Wł ocł awek
Ruda Ś l.
Inowrocł aw
Tarnów
Zabrze
Starachowice
Kę dzierzyn K.
OstrowiecŚw.
Chrzanów
Gł ogów
Chorzów
Zduń ska Wola
Pł oń sk
Legnica
Rawicz
Tczew
Wejherowo
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Sandomierz
Ciechanów
Opoczno
Tychy
Tarnowskie Góry
Nysa
Bolesł awiec Cheł m
Tomaszów Maz.
Jarocin
Pił a Ostrów Maz.
Ostroł ę ka
Koszalin
Bielsko-Biał a
Kalisz
Wieluń
Pionki
Świnoujś cie
Goleniów
Gryfice
Stargard Szczeciń ski
Pyrzyce
Malbork
Starogard Gd.
Chojnice
Świecie
Grudzią dz
Brodnica
Mł awa
Bartoszyce
Kę trzyn
Nidzica
Sierpc
Woł omin
Żyrardów OtwockBiał a
Podlaska
Strzelce Krajeń skie
Nowa Sól
Żary
Krosno Odrz.
Kostrzyn
Świebodzin
Kł odzko
Dzierż oniów
ZgorzelecKluczbork
Brzeg Lubliniec
Jaworzno
KrosnoPrzemyś l
Mielec
Suwał ki
Bielsk Podl.
Ił awa
Turek
Beł chatów
Pł ock
Świdnica
Grójec
Zamoś ć
Rybnik
Jelenia Góra
Bę dzinBytom
Elblą g
Stalowa Wola
Eł kMrą gowo
Piaseczno
Radzymin
Siemiatycze
Łę czycaZgierz
Drawsko-Pomorskie
Koł obrzeg
Szczecinek
Lę bork Gdynia
Lubin
JaworGryfów-Ś l.
Ostrów Wlkp.
Konin
Trzebnica
Syców
Strzelin
Nowa-RudaKamienna Góra
Koniecpol
Skarż ysko-Kamienna
Koń skie
Busko Zdrój
Bochnia
NowyTarg
Olkusz
Oś wię cim
PruszkówNw. Tomyś l
Ś rem
Sł upskLidzbark Warm.
CiechanowiecHajnówka
Moń ki
Zambrów
Sokół ka
Giż ycko
Pisz
Ostróda
Szczytno
Przasnysz
Braniewo
Kwidzyn
Mysł owice
Cieszyn
Żory
Wieruszów
Gostynin
Sulejówek
TomaszówLubelski
Legionowo
RacibórzKatowiceKnurów
Brzeziny
Kutno
Kł odawa
Olecko
Żuromin
Grodzisk Maz.
Racią ż
Sokoł ówPodl.
Krasnystaw
Zł otów
Jelcz Laskowice
Jastrzę bie Zdrój
21
3
R3
R19
R7
R6
R8R11
R12R13
R1
R2
R5
R4
R9 R10
R14
R17R15
R18
Żywiec
4Gliwice
Oborniki
Dział dowo
Pasł ę k
Jarosł aw
Koś cierzyna
PolandInfrastructure costs: current locations
PolandMarketing and public relations costs
> 10% of overheads
> Similar cost per customer going forward
PolandExpenses summary
> 40% of gross revenue
> Nearly 80% relatively fixed in nature
> Target of 73% of gross revenue
> 40% of gross revenue
> Relatively fixed in nature
> Target of 24% is achievable
PolandCosts and profit as a % of revenue
97 91 88
3 9 12
111
153141
-11
-53-41
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
D 99 J 00 D 00 J 01 D 01 J 02
Costs*Profit
PolandThe future
> Build on successes
> Target of 1 million customers
> Target of £400 annual issue per customer
> Controlled growth
> Target of £60 pre-tax profit per customer per annum
Czech RepublicTargets
> Population 10 million
> Estimated market size 500,000
> Customers 250,000
> Target annual credit issued per customer £400
> Target annual profit per customer £60
Poland
Progress towards targetsCzech Republic
Annual profit per customer
Annual credit issued per customer
CustomersEstimated market size
£19
£309
206,000500,000
£60
£400
250,000500,000
June 2002Target
International home creditCentral European market potential
Poland Czech Hungary Slovakia Total
Population (million) 39 10 10 5 64
Estimated market size (000) 2,000 500 500 250 3,250
Target customers (000) 1,000 250 250 125 1,625
Current customers (000) 576 209 33 15 844
Target annual credit issued percustomer (£) 400 400 400 270 390
Target annual profitper customer (£) 60 60 60 40 58
International home creditCentral European market potential
> UK home credit model can be successfully introduced overseas
> Customer and agent relationship similar in all countries
> Good quality, well educated workforce essential
> Key early skills: recruitment, training, advertising, brand building
> Simple, distributed IT systems a strength
> As arrears work builds, added support and training needed
> Need to balance growth, costs and bad debt
International home creditLessons learned
> New country development draws heavily on central resources
> Staged, low risk approach is best
> Early introduction of a full management team covering all functions aids development
> “In country” research is most valuable
> Pilot operation is best indicator of market dynamics
International home creditCountry selection: where next?
> Rule of law
> Relatively stable economy
> Safe to lend and collect
> Urbanised
> Can be funded in local currency
> Well educated workforce
> Sufficient potential
International home creditCountry selection: the future
> Eastern European countries not yet suitable
> Potential in Western Europe
> Potential further afield
> Low risk entry approach preferred
International home creditThe future
> Entered Hungary and Slovakia during 2001-progressing well
> Outstanding opportunities for further expansion-2003 onwards
> We will maintain our risk controlled approach
> Excellent prospects for generating additional shareholder value