Merrill Lynch Investor Conference - The Vault Merrill Lynch Investor Conference . 2 Contents...

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Sun City, South Africa 12 14 March 2013 Merrill Lynch Investor Conference

Transcript of Merrill Lynch Investor Conference - The Vault Merrill Lynch Investor Conference . 2 Contents...

Sun City, South Africa

12 – 14 March 2013

Merrill Lynch

Investor Conference

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Contents

Introduction

Cement

Lime and Aggregates

Rest of Africa

Overview of PPC

and Strategy

South Africa,

Zimbabwe,

Botswana and

Mozambique

South Africa,

Botswana and

Exports

Status of projects

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Company overview

1. Jupiter

2. Hercules

3. Slurry

4. Dwaalboom

5. Riebeeck

6. De Hoek

7. Port Elizabeth

8. Colleen Bawn

9. Bulawayo

10. Lime Acres

11. Laezonia quarry

12. Mooiplaas quarry

13. Kgale quarry

14. Gaborone

15. Saldanha

16. Quarries of Botswana

17. George

18. Maputo

19. Habesha

Rwanda

Overview of PPC’s Operations PPC at a Glance

• Established over 120 years ago and

listed on the JSE for 103 years

• PPC is SA and Zimbabwe’s largest

cement manufacturer

• PPC has the leading market positions in

SA, Botswana and Zimbabwe

• PPC is also the leading burnt lime and

dolomite producer in southern Africa

and has a strong presence in the

aggregates industry in Gauteng and

Botswana.

• In addition to serving the southern

African domestic markets, cement is

exported to other African countries

• For the 2012 financial year:

• Revenue R 7.3 bn

• EBITDA R 2.3 bn

• Operating profit R 1.9 bn

Burundi

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20. Cimerwa

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Product overview

Lime

Cement

PPC’s products include

unslaked lime, hydrated

lime and limestone and

burnt dolomite

South Africa

PPC’s product range includes Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) for specialised application

in the infrastructural market (52.51), market-leading Surebuild (42.5) for general-purpose

application, and the new SureRoad brand for exclusive use in road construction

Botswana Surebuild, OPC, PMC and the Botcem (32.5) product is a popular ash-blended cement for

the retail market

Zimbabwe Surebuild, Unicem, an established 32.5 multipurpose cement and PMC (22.5) are distributed

from the Bulawayo factory

Mozambique PPC’s Surebuild (42.5) is distributed as the Força brand and Obras (32.5) a product

introduced during 2012

Aggregates Readymix Concrete (RMC)

Concrete stone, road stone,

crusher sand, river sand,

building sand, plaster sand,

Magalies silica, natural

base, sub-base, fill material,

dolomite and agricultural

lime

Pronto Readymix supplies

concrete as well as plaster

and mortar to the Gauteng

area. This includes standard

concrete mixes from 10MPa

– 50MPa, pumpable mixes

from 10MPa – 50MPa as

well as dual purpose dry

mortar and superflat

speciality plaster

1 Indication of strength category of cement

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PPC’s strategies are:

1. Enhance our industry leader position in southern Africa

(“Keeping the home fires burning” strategy)

Excel in sales, marketing, customer focus, overall value offering

Efficient operations and optimised logistics

Renew/upgrade equipment, especially relating to customers or efficiency

Acquire businesses with good strategic fit

2. Expand our operational footprint into other parts of

sub-Saharan Africa (“Rest of Africa” strategy)

Grow revenue outside South Africa to >40% of group revenue by 2016

Invest where:

• High potential for infrastructure development

• Low per capita cement consumption

• Current cement shortages

• Within 250km of major population centres

• Avoid proximity to ports (threat of imports)

Strategy overview

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South African industry cement demand

Source: National Treasury, SA Reserve Bank, PPC calculations

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Budget Actual % Spent

• Despite a weak Jul to Sept

quarter, sales volumes by SA

producers increased 3.9% for the

year ending Sept 2012

• PPC’s outlook for FY2013 is an

industry growth of ~4%

• Government’s % spend of

allocated budget rose in 2011/12

• However MTEF shows declining

public-sector infrastructure

expenditure of R827 billion

• Large portion of budget allocated

to Eskom and Transnet

• To assist in accelerating

infrastructure development, PPC

looking for new proactive ways for

private sector and government

partnerships

Public sector infrastructure expenditure (R billion)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012

Private business enterprises Public corporations General government

Real gross fixed capital formation (% change)

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South African industry cement demand

• Remain concerned about the

sustainability of demand growth

generated by social grants and

unsecured loans

• Imports • The volume of imported product

peaked in Q3 2012 but fell

markedly into Q4 2012

• Exchange rate weakened to

average R8.65/$ in the final

quarter of 2012

• PPC calculations suggest that for

2012, imports made up 6.5% of

demand

• Almost all imports from Pakistan

as those from India dried up as

currency weakened

±70%

± 15%

± 15%

*Source: SARS, DTI, PPC research

Ports of entry for imports (by volume)*

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PPC’s South African cement market

• For the first five months of the

FY13, SA cement volumes have

exhibited positive growth

• Good recovery in the Western Cape

due to more building and road

projects

• Volumes in the Eastern Cape have

declined due to heavy rains and

imports

• Strongest growth areas: Rustenburg

and Nelspruit

• Despite work stoppages at Medupi,

demand growth in Limpopo

remained positive

• PPC put through a 4% price increase

1 Jan 2013

• Pricing environment remains

competitive

Demand Pricing

PPC express outlet

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PPC’s South African cost inputs

• Improvements achieved from increased volumes and prices will be offset by the

sourcing challenges and cost increases experienced during PPC’s first quarter

• A technical issue resulted in lower than planned production output at the Dwaalboom

factory, resulting in customer demand being satisfied through suboptimal sourcing

• All technical issues have now been resolved and the factory is operating well

• Total cost inflation is in low double digits

• Energy (for the first five months of FY2013)

• Diesel - Rand per litre up 12%

• Electricity up ~15% (R/t).

• Coal costs flat (R/t)

• Maintenance costs flat (R/t)

• Salaries increased on average by 6.5%

for FY2013

Diesel Price

Source: I-Net Bridge

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Carbon tax

• A carbon tax of R120 per ton CO2 emitted was proposed in the finance ministers

2012 budget speech

• This has been re-iterated in the 2013 budget but now with a commencement date

of 1 January 2015

• A tax-free exemption threshold of 60% will be set with allowances for emissions

intensive and trade-exposed industries

• An updated carbon tax policy paper will be published for further consultation by

the end of March 2013

• The 2012 draft suggested that the cement industry could be potentially exempt

initially for between 70 and 85% of CO2

• PPC remains concerned that the magnitude of the tax is out of line with other

emerging markets and puts local manufacturing industries at a further

disadvantage

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South Africa capex and acquisitions

• Phase 1 – De Hoek Kiln 6

• Completed in 2012

• Significant improvement in stack

emissions

• ~5% improvement in heat consumption

and clinker production rate

• Phase 2 – New Riebeeck Kiln 3

• EIA approval obtained

• Slurry Finishing Mill 4

• FM4 commissioned in 1974

• Largest ball mill in the PPC group

• Mill separator and associated electrical

components have reached end of life

• R100m investment to improve mill

reliability, product quality and reduce

dust emissions

Western Cape Modernisation Acquisition of Pronto Holdings

Maintenance/Modernisation Capex

• Purchased at 5,6 times Pronto’s

EBITDA less net debt.

• First 25% (~R70m) paid at initiation of

the transaction

• Second 25% to be paid in June 2013

• Balance due June 2014

Estimated capital expenditure for 2013 financial year: R550m – R650m

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Zimbabwe, Botswana and Mozambique

• Demand continues to increase • Strong volume growth but marginal

selling price increases

• Well controlled cost increases and

good production performance

• Productivity plan to get capacity up to

~1000ktpa from ~850ktpa

• Centenary • PPC Zimbabwe celebrated its

centenary in February 2013

• The demand and pricing

environment remains under

pressure

• Cautiously optimistic on the

outlook for government

infrastructure spending

• Volumes remain under

pressure in the southern

regions due to intense price

competition as a result of

imported cement products

Zimbabwe Botswana

Mozambique

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Lime and Aggregates

• SA volumes under pressure due to

weak demand from steel & alloys

industry

• Aggravated by production disruptions

at key customers

• Exports to Botswana, Zambia and

DRC continue

• SA aggregates volumes have fallen

due to a lack of projects in the

operating zone

• Similarly in Botswana, demand has

been weak due to poor market

conditions

• Costs under pressure due to

equipment failure at Kgale as well

as integration and upgrading costs

at Quarries of Botswana

Aggregates Lime

Weaker performance for Lime and Aggregates is anticipated for 1H2013

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Rest of Africa update

DRC

RSA

Malawi Zambia

Morocco

Algeria

Cameroon

Nigeria

Madagascar

Egypt

Libya

Tunisia

Western Sahara

Mauritania

Niger Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Djibouti

Angola

Botswana

Senegal

Namibia

Sierra Leone

Burkina Faso

Mali

Liberia

Kenya

Central AR

Guinea

Sudan

South Sudan

Zimbabwe

Tanzania

Eritrea

Uganda

Rwanda

Burundi

Cement 2011 GDP

growth Cement 2016

million tons % million tons1

Current operating

areas 13 3.6 16

Current focus areas 20 4.1 30

Future focus areas 32 7.0 62

Total 65 5.4 108

E Guinea

Congo

Gambia

1PPC calculations and estimates

• Strategy continues to

focus on the countries

indicated in current and

future focus areas

Ghana

Gabon

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Rest of Africa update

• Acquired a 51% equity stake in

Cimerwa for US$69.4 million

• The only cement producer in the

country for the past 28 years

• Current demand for cement in Rwanda

is estimated at 350,000 tons per

annum, with regional cement demand

projected to increase to 1 million ton

during the next decade.

• Current capacity of 100 ktpa cement

and constructing a new 600 ktpa

production line - commissioning 2014

• Cimerwa is in the process of finalising

US$104 million debt financing to

complete the expansion project

Cimerwa Limited, Rwanda Habesha Cement, Ethiopia

• PPC secured a 27% stake with an

equity investment of $12 million

• 53% of the company is owned by

16 000 local Ethiopians

• Construction of a 1.4 Mtpa facility is

envisaged

• Project cost is estimated to be $130

million one third of which is equity

funded and the remainder will be debt

funded

• Some delays due to finalising debt, but

not show stopper

• Plans are in place to double capacity

after the first line is commissioned

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General investment information

• FY 2012 net debt to EBITDA of 1.4x, committed to keeping this < 3x

• PPC remains committed to dividend policy cover range of 1.2 to 1.5 times

• PPC assigned SA national scale long-term and short-term credit ratings of

zaA+ and zaA-2, respectively by Standard & Poor’s

• Currently in the process of establishing a domestic medium term note

programme to optimise and diversify sources of funding

• Legal and operating corporate restructure (announced in 2012) underway:

• Streamline and optimise PPC’s SA and International business operations

• Facilitate improved ability to report segmentally

• More efficient tax structure

• Eight of ten old order mining rights converted to new order

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Investor contacts

Ketso Gordhan Chief Executive Officer

Tryphosa Ramano Chief Financial Officer

Kevin Odendaal Investor Relations

Azola Lowan Investor Relations

Tel. +27 11 386 9000

www.ppc.co.za

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Addendum: Southern African cement industry map

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Disclaimer

This document including, without limitation, those statements concerning the demand outlook, PPC’s expansion projects and its capital resources and expenditure, contain certain forward-looking statements and views. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty and although PPC believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment, other government action and business and operational risk management.

Whilst PPC takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, PPC accepts no responsibility for any damages be it consequential, indirect, special or incidental, whether foreseeable or unforeseeable, based on claims arising out of misrepresentation or negligence arising in connection with a forward-looking statement. This document is not intended to contain any profit forecasts or profit estimates, and the information published in this document is unaudited.