Meriteollisuusyhdistyksen syysseminaari...2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug....
Transcript of Meriteollisuusyhdistyksen syysseminaari...2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug....
Meriteollisuusyhdistyksensyysseminaari
Tapani Pulli
19.11.2020
AGENDA
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Market and customers
Meyer Turku
Seven cruise ships in order book – no cancellations
How cruising business is going to recover from the crisis and how we as shipyard and whole network can adopt ourselves to totally new situation will be key for future success
Short term corona crisis
• Production running with 80% capacity, projects progressing relatively well
• No diagnosed cases of covid-19 at the shipyard
• Extensive and multiple measures in place to avoid a local epidemic
• We will continue with the restrictions and release them only gradually
Long term effects and measures
• Customers suffering and the recovery will take time – difficult to predict how much
• We expect no new ship orders in the market until 2023 earliest
• We will need to spread our order book to adopt to customer’s needs and to build a bridge until new orders can be expected
• We have been preparing the shipyard for years for strong growth which now suddenly vanished and therefore we need to restructure the shipyard including temporary and permanent lay-offs
• Most likely output volume will still be one 1 very large cruise ship delivered every year
What we said in METY webinar this spring
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11.5.2020
2020 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Febr. März Apr. Mai Juni
DISNEY
P&O
SAGA
AIDA
CARNIVAL
RCCL
VIKING
SILVERSEA
TUI
COSTA
Observation date:30.03.20
30.04.
30.04.
30.04.
01.05.
15.05.
11.05.
13.05.
13.05.
28.04.
30.06.
Indication of the shipping companies until when they suspend cruises
SHIPS ON CHAIN
30.06.20
2020 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Febr. März Apr. Mai Juni
DISNEY
P&O
SAGA
AIDA
CARNIVAL
RCCL
VIKING
SILVERSEA
TUI
COSTA
2020 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Febr. März Apr. Mai Juni
DISNEY
P&O
SAGA
AIDA
CARNIVAL
RCCL
VIKING
SILVERSEA
TUI
COSTA 31.07.
31.07.
31.08.
01.09.
15.10.
30.09.
31.10.
11.11.
15.09.
31.08.
Indication of the shipping companies until when they suspend cruises
Observation date:
SHIPS ON CHAIN
30.09.20
2020 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Febr. März Apr. Mai Juni
DISNEY
P&O
SAGA
AIDA
CARNIVAL
RCCL
VIKING
SILVERSEA
TUI
COSTA 31.03.2021
01.04.2021
31.10.
04.02.2021
31.12.
31.12.
31.12.
31.10.
12.12.
31.12.
Indication of the shipping companies until when they suspend cruises
Resumption of some sporadic cruises (‚blue voyages‘)
Observation date:
SHIPS ON CHAIN
16.10.20
2020 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Febr. März Apr. Mai Juni
DISNEY
RCCL
VIKING
SAGA
COSTA
SILVERSEA
P&O
AIDA
TUI
CARNIVAL
31.03.2021
01.04.2021
15.11.
04.02.2021
31.12.
31.12.
30.11.
30.11.
12.12.
31.12.
Indication of the shipping companies until when they suspend cruises
Resumption of some sporadic cruises (‚blue voyages‘)
Observation date:
SHIPS ON CHAIN
04.11.20
2020 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Febr. März Apr. Mai Juni
DISNEY
RCCL
VIKING
SAGA
COSTA
SILVERSEA
P&O
AIDA
TUI
CARNIVAL
31.03.2021
01.04.2021
04.01.2021
03.05.2021
05.03.2021
31.12.
31.12.
30.12.
12.12.
31.12.
Indication of the shipping companies until when they suspend cruises
Resumption of some sporadic cruises (‚blue voyages‘)
Observation date:
SHIPS ON CHAIN
→ forecast before Corona
MILLION PASSENGERS
TODAY (Jan 2020)
CRUISE TOURISTS
Cruise Industry - Tourism
25%
75%
MILLION PASSENGERS
CRUISE TOURISTS
TODAY (Jan 2020)
Cruise Industry - Tourism
Existing Fleet and Orderbook Cruise Ships
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CCL40%
RCL25%
Others13%
NCL9%
MSC9%
Star Cruises3%
Disney Cruise Line1%
CCL27%
RCL23%Others
11%
NCL10%
MSC21%
Star Cruises
5%
Disney Cruise Line3%
CCL37%
RCL25%
Others12%
NCL9%
MSC12%
Star Cruises3%
Disney Cruise Line2%
October 2020
Existing Fleet Orderbook Total Fleet+ =Ships: 362Lower Berth: 597.006
Ships: 110Lower Berth: 236.004
Ships: 472 (-demolished)Lower Berth: 833.010
6 Years of Meyer Turku
Before Corona:
Constant investments
Constant increase in staff
Stable Orderbook until 2025
After Corona:
Investments in place
YT negotiations
Stable Orderbook until 2026
Direct employment effect 9500
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cumulative Investments
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Meyer Turku own employees
MEY
ER T
UR
KU 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
NB1396CCL
08/2020
NB1395Costa
05/2021
NB1400RCI
05/2022
NB1397CCL
10/2022
NB1404TUI
05/2023
NB1401RCI
05/2024
NB1402RCI
05/2025
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
ORIGINAL OUTPUT PLAN
Pre-corona Orderbook Scenario MEYER TURKU
MEY
ER T
UR
KU 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
NB1396CCL
08/2020
NB1395Costa
05/2021
NB1400RCI
05/2022
NB1397CCL
10/2022
NB1404TUI
05/2023
NB1401RCI
05/2024
NB1402RCI
05/2025
MEY
ER T
UR
KU 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
NEW OUTPUT AND CAPACITY PLANORIGINAL OUTPUT PLAN
NEW
Ø
Ø
New Orderbook Scenario MEYER TURKU
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THANK YOU!