Sheet1Sr. NoOutcomePayoffProbability1S-1 fails-300.4000s1s0.62S-2 fails-700.4200s2sD0.13S-3 D(200)6800.0510s2sW0.154S-3 D(200) fails-2700.0090s2sDW0.055S-3 W(150)250.0675s3sD0.156S-3 W(150) fails-2200.0225s3sW0.057S-3 DW(500) D3800.0045s3sDW0.78S-3 DW(500) W-3250.0015s1cost309S-3 DW(500) DW12800.0210s2cost4010S-3 DW(500) fails-5700.0030s3costD200s3costW150EMV13.981.0000s3costDW500benfD950benfW245benfDW1850

SimulationResults1Results SummaryPercentile DistributionHistogram DataInterval Probability DataMeanERROR:#N/APercentileValueBinFrequencyValueProbabilityNumber of Trials50000%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AStandard errorERROR:#N/A5%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A10%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AMinimumERROR:#N/A15%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AMaximumERROR:#N/A20%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AMedianERROR:#N/A25%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/ARangeERROR:#N/A30%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A35%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AStandard DeviationERROR:#N/A40%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AVarianceERROR:#N/A45%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A50%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/ASkewnessERROR:#N/A55%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AKurtosisERROR:#N/A60%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A65%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A70%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A75%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A80%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A85%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A90%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A95%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A100%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A

SimulationResults2Results SummaryPercentile DistributionHistogram DataInterval Probability DataMeanERROR:#N/APercentileValueBinFrequencyValueProbabilityNumber of Trials50000%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AStandard errorERROR:#N/A5%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A10%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AMinimumERROR:#N/A15%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AMaximumERROR:#N/A20%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AMedianERROR:#N/A25%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/ARangeERROR:#N/A30%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A35%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AStandard DeviationERROR:#N/A40%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AVarianceERROR:#N/A45%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A50%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/ASkewnessERROR:#N/A55%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AKurtosisERROR:#N/A60%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A65%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A70%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A75%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A80%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A85%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A90%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A95%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A100%ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/A

Sheet1 (2)58902068Sr. NoOutcomePayoffProbabilityUtilityUtilityminmusigmamax10S-3 DW(500) fails-5700.00328.587.31s1s0.6330.40.60.10.88S-3 DW(500) W-3250.00168.627.46s2sD0.1000.14S-3 D(200) fails-2700.00958.637.49s2sW0.1500.156S-3 W(150) fails-2200.02378.647.52s2sDW0.0500.052S-2 fails-700.44338.677.60s3sD0.1500.151S-1 fails-300.36678.687.62s3sW0.0500.055S-3 W(150)250.07128.697.65s3sDW0.7000.77S-3 DW(500) D3800.00478.747.80s1cost303003S-3 D(200)6800.05388.797.92s2cost40409S-3 DW(500) DW985.68508035060.02228.848.02s3costD200200s3costW150150EMV9.8979201731.00008.687.63s3costDW5005005895.72067.3benfD950950CECEbenfW245245project5.7-0.7benfDW1555.6850803506125018503002450