MEMS & Sensors Market: Current Challenges & Future Opportunities presentation held at Invensense...
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From Technologies to Market MEMS & Sensors Market: Current Challenges & Future Opportunities © 2016 Guillaume Girardin Yole Développement
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Transcript of MEMS & Sensors Market: Current Challenges & Future Opportunities presentation held at Invensense...
From Technologies to Market
MEMS & Sensors Market: Current
Challenges & Future Opportunities
© 2016
Guillaume GirardinYole Développement
2
CONTENT
Consumer and
Industrial
applications
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
• Autonomous vehicle
• ADAS
• Smart Factory
• Smart Grid
• Smart Building
• Mixed Reality (MR)
• Drones and Robots
• Smartphone
• Wearable
• AR/VR
• Smart camera
• Personal robot
• Vacuum cleaner
• Fridge/Washing machine
• Toys
Smart Home Human
AutomotiveIndustry 4.0
MOBILE
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
4
SMARTPHONES MARKET EVOLUTION
Realisticscenario
1.4% CAGR 2015-2021
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
China’s still driving the volume but will the next growth come from India? 2020?
5
EVOLUTION OF THE # OF SENSORS EMBEDDED IN A SMARTPHONE
Samsung S5/iPhone 6 - 2014 Galaxy S12/iPhone 9/9+ - 2021 ?iPhone Edge
2007 2014 2021
5 sensors
0 1 2 3 4 5
Microphone
CIS
ALS
Proximity
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Fingerprint
HRM
Gassensor
Laserranger
RGB
IRsensor
0 1 2 3 4 5
Microphone
CIS
ALS
Proximity
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Fingerprint
HRM
Gassensor
Laserranger
RGB
IRsensor
0 1 2 3 4 5
Microphone
CIS
ALS
Proximity
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Fingerprint
HRM
Gassensor
Laserranger
RGB
IRsensor
12 sensors 19 sensors ?
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
(1x3D)
6
Sound
Interface
Security
Communi-cation
Motion
Environmental
Optical
MEMS AND SENSORS IN MOBILE DEVICES
Security, sound and
3D Imaging,
the next value propositions
of smartphones
…
Capacitive MEMS
Microphone
Piezoelectric MEMS
Microphone
CIS (Front, Rear, Multi, 3D)
Spectral sensing (IR, multispectral)
Autofocus (VCM, liquid
lens, MEMS, piezo)
Particle, gas sensor
Temp. / Humidity sensor
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Combos (IMU, eCompass, 9DOF)
Pressure sensor
Antenna tuner, filters, …
MEMS oscillator
Face/Eye/Iris
recognition
Fingerprint
sensor
Laser ranger
3D Touch
ALS, proximity, RGB
Laser ranger
Piezoelectric MEMS
Loudspeakers
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
7
MEMS VALUE PROPOSITION IN MOBILE DEVICES
And 3D imaging is supposed to be the next big thing…
• High SNR
• Noise cancellation
• Voice recognition/activation
• Waterproofing
• Haptic feedback
• Gesture recognition
• Add dimensions to the interface
• 3D changing interface
(microfluidic)
• High resolution imaging
• Liveness detection
• All environment
detection (dry, wet, dirt)
• Anti-spoofing
• Mobile payment
• Multiple bandwidth handling
(Worldphone)
• Low power consumption
• Low loss
• Accurate timing
• Accurate indoor
positioning
• Accurate motion
tracking
• Healthier life (sport,
walking orientation)
• Danger and damage
preventing
• Weather forecast/probe
• Better communication (Skype,
FaceTime)
• Immersion (AR/VR, Selfie trends
keep going (Face swap)
• 3D photo/Video Improved
photography/video
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
• Beamforming
8
INCREASING FUNCTIONALITIES FOR MOBILE PHONES
Proliferation of functions
using different sensors
20142012
Context awareness
20102008 2018
Portrait/Landscape switching, Tap/double tap and shake control
Gaming
3D gaming
Location-based service
Security + authentication
Map navigation & GPS assistance
Indoor navigation
High resolution camera stabilization
Menu navigation & advanced user interface
Pedometer
Smart Home
2016
Market introduction
Market acceptance
With
accelerome
ters
With
compass +
pressure
With
fingerprint
With
sensor
fusionActivity monitoring
2020
With
gyroscopes
With 3D
camera Enhanced communication
Gaming + 3D Avatar
With
microphone
Mobile payment
Virtual Personal Assistance
Always-on Virtual Personal Assistance
With gas
sensor Gas detec
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
9
REAR CAMERA - PHOTOGRAPHY
Ongoing improvements of photography
Better, faster, stronger…
- High power processing
- High Cost
- Large XY Size
- No OIS integration
True Tone flash𝜇phone
Rear cameras
Dual cameras
pros and cons
Rear camera module
- New features
- Performance
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
10
FRONT CAMERA – SELFIES & VIDEO CALLING
Changing use cases of the front camera
Innovation on the front side would make more sense 3D Camera - Stereo or ToF
(Res. VGA, IR LED illumination)
3 in 1
ALS/Proximity/ColorFront camera
(Res. 5–8Mp)
• Technology maturity
• Multisource availability
• Easy to integrate (no OIS)
• Lower cost than rear dual cameras
• “Wow effect”
• Recent acquisitions
Front camera module
Why now ?
Courtesy of Faceshift
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
11
BIOMETRICS MARKET TREND IN MOBILE
Recent security cases may have shorten the entry in the security technology
From convenience to security feature…
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
20202012 2014 2016 2018 2022
20%
30%
50%
70%
Fingerprint biometrics
is a convenience feature
90%
Market Penetration
Convenience/feature
?
950XL
Unlocking
Account
Security technology
Mobile Payment
Online IdentityBiometric Personal
Identification Device (BPID)
Could biometrics become a
critical security technology ?
Yes, it could, with multi-modal
authentication
+
Fingerprint
sensing
+
Iris
recognition
Facial
recognition
12
TOTAL SENSOR MARKET FOR CELLPHONES AND TABLETS (MUNITS)
The growth of sensors in the
cellphones and tablets market will
reach a 8.3% CAGR2016/2021
in units
Sensors
8.3%CAGR2016-2021
(Units)
3D camera
72%CAGR2016-2021
(Units)
Fingerprint
21%CAGR2016-2021
(Units)
0
20,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR2015-2021
Marketvolume(Munits)
2013 - 2021 Cellphones and tablets sensors volume forecast (in Munits) by sensor type
Total(Munits)
OtheremergingMEMS
CISsensors
OpticalHRM
Eye/Irisscanner
Fingerprint
3DCamera
LaserRanger
RGB
Proximity
ALS
Gas/Particlesensors
Humidity+Temperature
Pressuresensors
SiliconMicrophones
9-axisCombos
6-axisE-compass
6-axisIMUs
Magnetometers
OISgyroscopes
Gyroscopes
Accelerometers
YoleDeveloppement@April 2016
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
VR / AR / MR
Composite image by Re/code; Original: Japanexperterna.se@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
14
CONSUMER MARKET TREND
The next steps of Imaging ?
Pandora’s box is open
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
2D
Photo
Video2D
Processing x Complexity
Evolution2D 3D
Photosphere
3D
3D
3D/Sphere
Video
-Video/Movies
-Videochat
- Picture
- Selfie
Augmented/
Mix Reality
- Object Mapping
-Smart environment
interaction
- Photosphere
- Enhanced videocall
- Morphing
-Virtual
Reality
- 3D/Depth
Photosphere
4D
virtual world
with interaction
Interactive
World
3D
3D
Video3D
3DPhoto
15
FROM SMARTPHONES TO ”SUPERPHONES”: REQUIREMENTS
Requirements are much
higher than current
smartphone ones
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
Virtual Reality Augmented Reality
Usage: Indoor (Outdoor for FPV)
Weight: Range of 500gr
Wired/Wireless
Usage: Indoor or Outdoor
Weight: < 400g
Wireless
• High resolution (>600ppi)
(Techno: OLED, LCD, MicroDisplay)
• Large field of view
(Human eye: 70° to 120°)
• See-through glasses
• High resolution (>600ppi)
(Techno: DLP, LCOS, MicroDisplay)
• High luminosity (Outdoor usage)
• Large field of view
(Human eye: 70° to 120°)
• Motion sensing (MEMS) (6/9-axis)
• Light house• MEMS (6/9-axis)
No
• 3D Depth camera
• Stereo vision?
• LIDAR?
• Touch sensing area
• Accessories
(Light house or MEMS motion sensing)
• Touch sensing area
• 3D hand gesture recognition
• Min. 60fps (120fps recommended)
• Ultra low power
• High needs of computation
• Min. 60fps (120fps recommended)
Display
Tracking
Performances
Environment
scanning
General specifications
Control
16
VR / AR / MR MARKET ANALYSIS
AR is a fragmented
market
Smart Eyeware Gaming B2B Industrial Military
Huge R&D effort to merge
applications into a single
consumer product
Source : Bernard Kress - Stanford
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
17
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Vo
lum
e s
hip
ment
(M u
nits)
2010-2021 Virtual Reality headset market (in Munits)
CONSUMER MARKET TREND
Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality headset market forecast
VR is still in early stage:
Not mature and expensive
?
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
18
AUGMENTED REALITY DISRUPTION
From AR to MR
3D Depthsensing
Object
2D
f(x;y)=Intensity f(x;y)=(Intensity, Distance)
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
19
NEAR TO EYE DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
Various display
technologies
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
Technology is also fragmented
Freespace Lightguide
W aveguide
« Bird bath »
Holographicor Diffractive
20
AUGMENTED REALITY DISPLAY
Technology
Technology segmentation
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
21
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.15 0.501.00
3.00
8.00
22.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.29 0.60
2.50 2.001.00
1.001.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e
Vo
lum
e s
hip
ment
(Munits)
2010-2025 VR/AR market (in Munits)AR VR
AUGMENTED AND MIXED REALITY, THE NEXT BIG THING?
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
AR Disruption
VR Peak
Multi-100Munits
market by 2030 ?
AUTOMOTIVE
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23
$200B
HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?
Two industries controlled by
giant companies with ~$200B in
revenue
2014 industry revenue comparison
Consumer ElectronicsIndustry
AutomotiveIndustry $2.2T
CAGR +2.7%
88M units
ASP $28,000
$1.140T
CAGR +4.4%
3,046M units
ASP $374
$142B
CAGR +7%
88M units
ASP $1,614
Automotive
Electronics
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
≈ ≈ ≈ ≈
The car is the next consumer
electronics device!
24
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: THE DISRUPTION CASE
Two distinctive paths for autonomous vehicles
2020 - 2022 should see the
first implementations
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
1900 1980 2012 2022 2028 2040
Technology x Market Penetration
The
Automobile’s
Evolution
12 years6 years10 years32 years80 years
Yole Développement
© September 2015
Low-expectation
“cars” fulfilling a
new plane of
consumption needs
Disruption?
Electronics
invade cars
The electric car
maturesIndustrialization
phase
New use case
25
THE DEATH OF DRIVING
By 2050, 5% of all vehicles sold should be level 5-ready!
Level 5
5%
By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
26
FROM APPLICATIONS TO DEVICES
OIS, microphone
and dead reckoning
sensors could drive the demand
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
MicrophoneBeam-forming
RADAR, SOUND
AND MOTION
Courtesy of InvenSense
27
INDUSTRIAL CHAIN FOR AUTOMOTIVE
A consolidated automotive industrial
chain
Service Provider
Car manufacturer
Tier 0.5(Software Provider)
Tier 1(System Manufacturer)
Tier 2(Parts Manufacturer)
Tier 3(Material Manufacturer)
FUTUREValue
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
28
SMART BUILDING
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29
SMART BUILDING
- Comfort
- Energy
- Security
with advanced functions
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
Smart buildings require a shift in sensing from basic light switch on/off to more advanced
functions
“40% of total energy consumption is for building.” Source: IBM
Smart Building
Comfort
SecurityEnergy
3segments
Sensors for:- Smart lighting- Flow- Temperature
Sensors for:- Recognition (Biometrics)- People counting- Presence- Fire
Sensors for: - Temperature- Humidity
- CO2- Pressur
e- Particles
30
SMART BUILDING FORECAST
Lower volume but huge
added value (services,
maintenance, etc.)
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
Market will grow at 26% CAGR over 2015-2020 to reach more than 9Munits in 2020 for Smart sensors.Market will grow at 10% CAGR over 2015-2020 to reach 336Munits in 2020 for “low end” sensors.
Volu
me (
Munits)
Huge value
(Services,
Maintenance,
data)
Low value
32
NEW MEMS CHALLENGES
Power consumption is becoming a major trend
MEMS markets
challenges are evolving
2016, a new virtuous cycle?Yesterday
ASP
decrease
Consumer
volume
Size
decrease
Power
consumption
decrease
Importance
for user case
Sensor fusion,
software &
more features
Mobiles have to survive for long
periods on battery power while
interacting with environment
(voice calls, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth,
GPS, sensors …).
Start with applications, and
work downwards to the chips
needed to support them.
Less silicon, more brain.
Start with more intelligence!
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
33
SENSOR HUB vs MCU/AP
A fight to acquire value
Value is in the software, not
in the hardware
MCU
AP
$30 - 40
Sensor
Hub
Sensor 1Sensor 2
Sensor #
…
…
A great
competition to
gather value at a
higher level in the
system, because
value is in the
software, not in
the hardware.
<<$1/sensor
$1 -$2
Value
Sensor
System
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
34
CHALLENGES AT ALL LEVELS
No “one-fit-all” solution
A solution for each
application could be the
greatest challenge
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
Performances
Low power
Smarter
Lower cost
Use case
Software
Value & Services
Turnkey solution
Sensor
36
WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT BIG THING FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY?
We are still strongly
relying on the smartphone
wave…
Where is the next growth
relay?
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE (in bn US$)
Source: WSTS, Cisco, Gartner, Yole
?
IoT
/SmartCity/
Building?
Wearables ?
AR/VR ?
Autonomous
vehicles?
37
EXTRACTED FROM 2016 YOLE’S REPORTS, AND UPCOMING 2017 REPORTS
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Coming in 2017
Stay tuned on
www.i-micronews.com
38
THANKYOU
Q&A?
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
39
MEMS &
Sensors
LED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced Packaging
Batteries / Energy
Management
Power
Electronics
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
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40
4 BUSINESS MODELS
Yole Développement
o Consulting and AnalysisMarket data & research, marketing analysis
Technology analysis
Strategy consulting
Reverse engineering & costing
Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
o ReportsMarket & Technology reports
Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk analysis
Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis
Cost Simulation Tool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
o Financial servicesM&A (buying and selling)
Due diligence
Fundraising
Maturation of companies
IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yolefinance.com
www.bmorpho.com
o Mediai-Micronews.com website
@Micronews e-newsletter
Communication & webcast services
Events
www.i-Micronews.com
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41
A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Yole Group
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Innovation and business maker
www.bmorpho.com
Manufacturing cost analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
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42
OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY
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43
RESEARCH PRODUCTS - CONTENT COMPARISON
Deep and large analysis
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Custom analysis scope is defined with
you to meet your information and
budget needs
Breadth of the analysis
Dep
th o
f th
e a
naly
sis
Custom
Analysis
Workshops
Standard Reports
44
SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN
Our analysts provide market analysis,
technology evaluation,
and business plan along the entire supply
chain
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Integrators and
end-users
Device
makers
Suppliers: material,
equipment, OSAT,
foundries…
Financial investors,
R&D centers
45
SERVING MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL FIELDS
We are working across
multiple industries to
understand the impact of
More-than-Moore
technologies from device to
system
From A to Z…
Transportation
makers
Mobile phone
and consumer
electronics
Automotive
Medical
systemsIndustrial and
defense
Energy
@2016 | www.yole.fr | InvenSense Developer Conference
