ED COMMITTEE #1 January 14,2010

Briefing

MEMORANDUM

January 12,2010

TO: Education Committee

FROM: ~eith Levchenko, Senior Legislative Analyst Essie McGuire, Legislative Analyst 1YLA;Lc.:~

SUBJECT: Briefing: Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) Presentation on Enrollment and Demographic Trends

On January 14, Bruce Crispell, MCPS' Director of the Division of Long-Range Planning will brief the Education Committee on MCPS' latest enrollment and demographic trends. Slides for this briefing are attached on © 1-19.

Background

As part of the Superintendent's Recommended Capital Budget submission due to the Board of Education by November 1 of each year, MCPS prepares six-year enrollment projections by school based on preliminary September 30 enrollment for the current school year, planning and forecasting data from the Maryland-National Park and Planning Commission, and other research by MCPS staff. MCPS staff consider many factors in projecting enrollment including: birth rates, enrollment progressions through each grade, and the migration of students in and out of Montgomery County.

Operating Budget: In the Operating Budget, total enrollment affects State Maintenance of Effort (MOE) requirements. Total enrollment projections for the upcoming school year also drive budget targets for the number of teachers needed and teacher recruitment in the spring.

Capital Improvements Plan (CIP): In the CIP, large overall changes in total enrollment mayor may not have an impact on individual capital projects, since MCPS has approximately 200 schools over which these changes are spread. Therefore, from a CIP perspective, a micro review (i.e. a school by school and cluster review) of enrollment is more relevant. This micro review is part of Council staffs analysis when reviewing each school capacity project included by MCPS in its requested CIP.

Annual Growth Policy: The year six enrollment projections (School Year 2015-2016, FY16 for this year's projections) by school level and cluster form the key data of the Public

Schools Adequacy Test within the Annual Growth Policy. The slide on circle 14 shows a preliminary assessment of the schools test for the upcoming six-year period if the Council adopted the Board's CIP proposal as requested. A total of eight clusters would be over 105% utilization, requiring the school facility payment, and one cluster (Richard Montgomery) would be over 120% utilization, putting it into moratorium as of July 1,2010.

Demographic Trends

In terms ofdemographics, the County's school population continues to get more ethnically and economically diverse. For the 2009-2010 School Year:

• 29.3 percent ofMCPS students participate in FARMS (Free and Reduced Meals). The chart on circle 3 shows that the number ofparticipating student has risen sharply since 2005. For the 2008-2009 school year, 27.1 percent of students were enrolled in FARMS.

• 12.5 percent ofMCPS students participate in ESOL language programs. Circle 3 shows that this trend is also increasing sharply, primarily at the elementary level. For the 2008­2009 school year, 11.2 percent of students participated in ESOL programs.

2009-10 Actual Enrollment and Outyear Projections

The chart below shows current enrollment projections compared to last year's enrollment projections.

numbers are actuals **FY10 number is September 30 Official Enrollment.

Council staff notes the following:

• The upper section of the chart presents MCPS' Fall 2008 projections and the most recent projections from Fall 2009. The latest projections assume enrollment will continue to increase across the six-year period, with somewhat smaller increases projected in the out years. This results in a projected increase ofnearly 7,000 students by FYI6.

• As shown in the middle section of the chart, enrollment projections for each year are up by 1 % to 2% across all years compared to last year's projections for these same years. Historically, MCPS projections have been accurate within 1 % to 2% of actual enrollment. However even these small percentage differences in such a large school system can translate into changes in a given year in the thousands of students.

-2­

• The third section of the chart shows the latest year-to-year projected changes in enrollment. While the percentage increases projected from year to year are fairly small, the impacts can still be significant. With respect to Maintenance of Effort, for example, a 1,000 student increase at a per pupil cost of$II,249 (the FY09 MOE level) would increase MOE by over $11 million.

Requested FYll-16 elP

Also included in the attached presentation is a summary of the Board of Education's capital request which will be discussed by the Education Committee later in February (circles 15­19). In addition to the capacity projects already in the Approved FY09-14 CIP, there are two new school projects (Clarksburg Cluster ES and ClarksburglDamascus MS) appearing in the FYll-16 Proposed CIP. There are also 9 new addition projects. There is no change proposed for the modernization schedule. Although not highlighted in the presentation, the Proposed CIP also includes substantial increases in the levels of effort of a number of systemic projects (such as HVAC, Roofs, PLAR, and others), out year funding for two new bus depot projects (Clarksburg Depot Expansion and Shady Grove Depot Replacement) and additional funding in the Rehab/Renovation of Closed Schools projects for the reopening of Broome Junior High School and the reuse of Woodward High School as holding facilities.

f:\mcguire\20 10\enroll demog bfing 1141O.doc

-3­

Enrollment Trends and Overview of School Capacity Issues

Presented to the Montgomery County Council Education Committee

January 14, 2010 I

cPs I lOng.r,!ng~•.~Plannmg.

Demographics of Enrollment

Student Diversity Drives Enrollment Growth

MCPS Enrollment by Racel Ethnic Group, 1970 to 2009

160,000 Atri'''!:ln American _ Hispanic _ Asian American

140,000 +------------~-----------_=

120.000 i

1100,000

80,000

, 60,000!

40,000

I i 20,000

I

38.1% White, Non-Hispanic

Race/ Ethnic Trends

MCPS Percent Racel Ethnic Composition, 2009-10

29.30/0 of MCPS Students Participate in FARMS Program in 2009-10

MCPS Free and Reduced-Price Meals System (FARMS) Number Participating

45,000 41,464

40,000 35,580 ~692

35,000 31,518 30,720 33,997

29,941 29,201 29,568 ~ 30,000 1------~)i;07~===_.:=~=r~:_:_:_::~:;_:;.;:;_"'------

27,250 31,108 32,373 28,773 29,196

24,48825,000

25,795 20,572

22,93520,000

18,471

12.5% of MCPS Students in ESOL Program in 2009-10

160 Countries and 140 Languages Represented

MCPS ESOL Enrollment Trends by School Level

16,000

13,921 14,000 ­

12,Ooo--L---'=."~~_~~_~~-------------,:::T~--

10,000

8,000 ­

6,Ooo-------------~~-------------

4,000 ­

2,347

2,000

1.417 0,

0 N .... U> <0 .... co C> N .... <.0 .... co C> ;;; C> en C1> en C> '" c; 0 0 <:> <:> '" <:>

<:> <:> <:> <:> <:> <:> '" '" '" '" <:> '" <:> g <:> '" '" '" N N N N ~ ~ ~ ~ -'" ~ ~ -'" '" '" N N '" N N N N

Focus Elementary Schools Lead Diversity

2,698

1,769

1,005

MCPS FocuslNon-Focus Service Areas _ Non-Focus

_ Foeus

Focus Schools Serve Most Diverse Race I Ethnic Enrollment

Percent Racel Ethnic Enrollment at Focus and NonFocus Schools in 2009-10

60.0% ,------------~-------~~--~'--'-"--___,

50.0% 37.9%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0% '

African American Hispanic Asian American White

Focus Schools Serve Most Diverse FARMS and ESOL Enrollment

Percent FARMS and ESOL Enrollment at Focus and NonFocus Schools in 2009-1

60.0% ----;;;-;-=-;----------------------,

50.0% +---­

40.0% 31.9%

30.0% ~

20.0%

10.0%

O.O%+~~

FARMS ESOL

Enrollment Trends

2009-10

131 Elementary Schools

38 Middle Schools

25 High Schools

5 Special Education programs

I Career & Technology Center

Total MCPS Enrollment: 2008-09 to 2009-10

Official Official o Enrollment

10,626

10,744 10,473 10,046 10,265 a,ass

10,099 10,283 10,615

9 11,776 11.855 10 11,159 11,321 11 11.052 10.971 12 10,868 11,032

350

449 641 -49 462

15

29 -117

99

79 162 -81 174

K-5 6-8

9-12

K-12

H,S./PreK PreK Sp.Ed

TOTAL

: 60,271 30,986 44,845

102

2,496 678

139,276

62.13a 30,997 45,179

138.315

2,591 871

141.777

1,868 11

334

2.213

95 193

2.501

49,830

MCPS Grades K-5 Enrollment Actual 1999 to 2009, and Projected 2010 to 2015

MCPS Grades KooS Enrollment Actual 1990-2009 and Projected 2010-15

Actual Projected70,000 ­

67,500 ______ .___________+-_______---'6""6~9~OO<_

65,000 ­

62,500 62,139

60,000 _61.143

57,500 ______________58..:..,7..=..2;;...1__+-__________

55,000 ----,--------,------;~---l--------r----g o g N N

MCPS Grades 6-8 Enrollment Actual 1999 to 2009, and Projected 2010 to 2015

35,000

32,500

30,000

27,500

25,000

MCPS Grades 6-8 Enrollment Actual 1990-2009 and Projected 2010-15

Actual Projected

33,076 32,687

-//30,997

29,846

0) 0 .... N M "<t it') <0 r- eo 0) 0 .-- N M "<t it') m 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .... .- .-- ..- ..... ..... m 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ..- N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

MCPS Grades 9-12 Enrollment Actual 1999 to 2009, and Projected 2010 to 2015

MCPS Grades 9-12 Enrollment Actual 1999·2009 and Projected 2010·15

Actual Projected50,000 ­

47,500 ---------------\-----------~.. 45,546 45,179

45,000 ­ 44,013

40,000 ­

37,500 37,531

35,000 ______________----1-_________

MCPS Total Enrollment Actual 1999 to 2009, and Projected 2010 to 2015

MCPS Total Enrollment: Actual 1999 to 2009 and Projected 2010-2015

Actual Projected150,000

135,000

130,000

125,000 , , , ,

145,000 ------------___+_

139,387 140,000 -----=:=:a==::;~::a::_--

137,745

148,043

, ____,~L-----

141,777 __:;;fl'--------

130,689

············r·········

0 N '<t LQ'" m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ @ @ @ @ @ @

Why Enrollment is Increasing

------

m ;:; .~i 8 -i i ~ § ~

1900

1991

19i12

19!1l

1994

~!II.,O'i...11.,511 ~,,9S

9))01

9.1 7

9,'al

91150

91»1-.. S,61

.916- 9.002

9,09'

9,00"

~,66$- 8,875

9,101

6,9lil

"9,52-4

lOp

~ "V

1995 m A\996 5'

1991 Q. (I)

1~ cO Ql

1999 ::+ (If ::l m<001 ::l..

lOO2

3 0

lOO3 (I)

13~2Ila 13,548

1005 13,5(1/

;m;

V 13,006:001

13,643;m;

13.6S110,6'JJ'j/<009

~ -§ -§ -~ -§ ~ 1990 12,33

lSS1 11,466

1992 1'2.432

111!l3 1294

1211l~1994

1995 12,1 5

1996 11,641

1001 -- 1~12

199ft 1 MI

2,3691999

200Il 11,G5!

:<001 13.1 9

2002 lJ,I!

2003

2OQ.I

l7' 2006

2001

2008

3: 0 a co 0 3 (I)

-< n 0c: ::l... '< ;Q (I) (I)

c: (I)

::I... OJ S' :r (/\

OJ_. ::l ::l" UI

C...,_. <CD -::l n Cil Q) UI CD UI_. ::l

_. ::l'" Q. CD ta Q)

::l CD ::l

Ii ......~ ~ ~ ...... ~

w w .j:>

'0 '" i..n'" o a o o og o o~ o ~ , ,I 12, 331990

1991 12,466

1992 12,432

1993 12,194

12,2031994

12,1851995

1996

1997

12,2511998

11,847

11,812

12,3691999

2000

2001

2002

2003 529

2004 546

2005 07

2006 13,806

2007 13,843

2008 13,681

3C 0 ::::J

c.c -0 3 CD

~ (") 0 r::: ::::J

'<­:;0 CD en_. c. CD ::::J-OJ_. ::l:::r en

0 0 s:::: ::l ...... '< OJ-. ::l ::l" UI -::l n..., CD Q) UI_. ::l

CC

GY

K- Enrollment Will Soon Exceed Grade 12 Enrollment

Enrollment in Kindergarten and Grade 12 1990 to 2009

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6.000

5,000

• K • 12th

-

-

-

Net Migration to MCPS Over 2,000 Since 2008

Total Net Migration in Enrollment from K·11 to Grades 1·12 1990 to 2009 2,445

2,500 ­2,087

2,000 1,588 1,294 1,538

1,500

1,000

500

o

-500

-1,000 -836-940

949 1,193

1,038 1,062 -

603 651

• 411 -

I I 'vv

30 • 218•

- -

643

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1 61997'1998199920002001 2002'2003 2~4'2005 2 ~ 2007 2008 2009

-23 -184

Net Increase in MCPS Enrollment from County Private Schools

Net Losses or Gains in MCPS Enrollment from County Private Schools

800 ­ 727 (/) 0.. 0 :& 1/1 600 1:1)­ 497I: 0 - 0... .:::, 408 434S u 359I:(/) 400 ­ 312 309W <II "'lijo > 1:1) .­I: .. 200;;0.. ')( .?;­W I:

.!I g 01:0

~ ~ N ("). '<t I.t) ,...

- 151 11599

(0 <Xl0 0 0 E~ E ~ 9 9I I I 9 9 9;:, 0 0 0 ~ N (") '<t (0 ,...LO0 0 0 0 0 ~ 0 0 0;)./:: -200 - g; en 0 0 0 0 0 Co0 0 0 ~ N N N N N N N N en'It -69 94) -240 -172 <XlZ 0

-400 - 0 N

School Capacity Issues

Relocatable Use Expected to Increase Again

Number of Relocatables at Schools 2005 to 2009

800 ­ 685 700 ­

G) 11)=600­c:

0;;; 500­.! .c 400­J!!I CIS (.) 300 o GiD:: 200­=1:1::

100

a

-

560

462

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

88 % of Relocatables at Elementary Schools

Number of Relocatables by School Level, 2009-10

400 386

G) 11)=300 .5 11)

.!

.c 200CIS-CIS (.) 0

Gi 100D:: =1:1::

14 37

Elementary Mddle High

!

Requested Elementary School Capital Projects Reduce Deficits in Some Clusters by 2015

Elementary Space Availablel Deficit, 2009-10 and 2015-16 Including Capital Projects Requested in the FY 2011-2016 CIP

400 ­

III ~.100 n-t I- J1-.-r 11­....,

-200 - 1 • • I ~~ ...J

...J - • -500

-800 I_ 2009-1002015-16 i -1100

-1400

-1700

-2000 Chur Clark Dam 1 Gaith waite M agr R.. North Pool Quinc Rock Sene Sher Walki Whit Woot

B-CC chill sburg ascu !DCC ersbu J r h

uder Mont NEC west esvill e . ca ns s rg 0 n gome e Orch vIlle Valley wood Mill man ton

• 2009-1> -752 -25 -255 , 437 1-1:144 372 -134 87 -307 ! -647 -651 132 -1>1 -134 -239 '60 170 -487 128

020'6-15 -285 92 147 ! '65 56 13 -22 58 -565 25 -688 233 -313 -315 -89 358 140 -97 136

Middle School Capacity Adequate in Most Clusters

Middle School Space Availablel Deficit, 2009-10 and 2015-16 Including Capital Projects Requested in the FY 2011-2016 CIP

1500+-----------~~-------------------------------------------

1200+-----------~~--------------------------------------------

900+-----------~__-------------------------------------------- ­

600+-------=__----~~~------------------------------------------.300 +--------1 i---. III n 1-. .1:1,11 Il I ~l n. 1"1 II

-,II--.- ­o

u U Irl

IUU. I I- 2009-1002015-16 1

-600 +--.,--------- ---....,.----,-----::---------::----------------------....,.----, Ch CI k Dam Gaith Waite Ma r R. North Pool Quinc Rock Sene Sher Walki Whit Wool

B-CC ur ar ascu DCC ersbu r d 9 Mont NEC esvdl e . ca ns I c~ltll sburg s rg John u er gome west e Orch Ville Valley wood M ill man ton

• 2009-1>. 52 -208 ·265 73 '633 248 321 400 25 391 284 125 529 136 306 224 11\ -86 • -215

C 2015-15 I -155 176 566 89 760 113 92 461 -158 231 -111 242 259 1 263 349 '9 -97 I 90 I

-300

I

~___________________~I

Enrollment Trends, and Some Capital Projects, Reduce Deficits at Most High Schools

High School Space Availablel Deficit, 2009·10 and 2015-16 Including Capital Projects Requested in the FY 2011-2016 CIP

500--------------------------------------------~~-------­

300

100

-100 .....-----111-11-------------------11--------------""-----_

I_ 2009-10 02015-16 -300------------------------~~----------~------~J_

-500------~~~~~~~~~~---~~~~~r_r_~-,_~--­B- Blai Bla Chu Clar Oa Ein Gait Wal Ken Ma R. Nor Nor Pal Po Qui Ro. Sen She !Spri Wat Wh Whi Wo CC k rchl! ksb rna stel her ter ned gru Mo thw thw nt ole nee ckvl eea rwo i ngb klns eat trna ott

rei urg scu n sbu Joh y der ntg est ood Bra svill Orc lie Vall ad • roo Mill on n on

.2009.1) ·1>9 50 -65 ·143·144 '51 1> -5

020'5·1> ·61 324 -63 21 -8 222 ·23 336

·96 1)8

Impact of Enrollment Trends and Requested CIP on Growth Policy School Test for FY 2011

School Tfit Level

&I100I faciity payment reqLired in inade~ate ckJsters to proceed.

Summary of School Test for FY 2011 •Preliminary Based on Board of Education Requeste<l FY 2011-2016 CIP

Would Be Effective 1, 2010

~yeartest

Effective JtIy 1, 2010

T~ year201~16

B-CC 1108.6%) NoI1hwesl (119.1%\ NortlHtood (11S.S%) Pai~ Branch (105.5%)

QLince Orchafd (111.7%i Rockvile (114.2%)

Cluster Outcomn

fiddle

S-CC(114.9%) NOI1IN/~ (105.6%, IMliImal1 \107.8%)

~yeartest

Effective JtIy 1. 2010 Richard Mo~gomery (126.5%) I

Wootton (107.8%)

Moratorium feqlled in clusters

~__~m_a_~_i~_~_~_~e_.____T~_~M_~1_~_16 I

FY 2011-2016 Capital Improvements Program

Highlights

Requested FY 2011-2016 CIP New School Carried Over from Previously Adopted

CIP

• Downcounty Consortium ES #29 (McKenny Hills site), open August 2012 (capacity 640)

~--------------------------~! ~

Requested FY 2011-2016 CIP New School Projects in CIP

• Clarksburg Cluster ES (Clarksburg Village Site #1), open August 2013

• Clarksburg/ Damascus MS (Arora Hills site), open August 2015

Recommended FY 2011-2016 CIP Addition Projects from Previously Adopted CIP

(Opening date in parenthesis)

• Brookhaven ES (8/11) • Montgomery Knolls ES (1/12)

• East Silver Spring ES (8/10) • Rock View ES (8/11)

• Fairland ES (8/11) • Sherwood ES (8/10)

• Fox Chapel ES (8/11) • Takoma Park ES (8/10)

• Harmony Hills ES (1/12) • Whetstone ES (8/11)

• Jackson Road ES (8/11)

Recommended FY 2011-2016 CIP New Addition Projects (Opening date in parenthesis)

• Bradley Hills ES (8/13)

• Clarksburg HS (8/14)

• Darnestown ES (8/13)

• Georgian Forest ES (8/13)

• Somerset ES (SY 10-11)

• Viers Mill ES (8/13)

• Waters Landing ES (8/13)

• Westbrook ES (8/13)

• Wyngate ES (8/13)

Elementary School Modernizations (Appendix E) (Opening date in parenthesis)

No Change from Currently Approved CIP

1. Cresthaven (8/10) 10. Bel Pre (8/14)

2. Carderock Springs (8/10) 11. Candlewood «1/15)

3. Farmland (8/11) 12. Rock Creek Forest (1/15)

4. Cannon Road (1/12) 13. Wayside (8/16)

5. Garrett Park (1/12) 14. Brown Station (8/16)

6. Seven Locks (1/12) 15. Wheaton Woods (8/16)

7. Beverly Farms (1/13) 16. Potomac (1/18)

8. Glenallan (8/13) 17. Luxmanor (1/18)

9. Weller Road (8/13) 18. Maryvale (1/18)

@

Secondary School Modernizations (Appendix E) (Opening date in parenthesis, later date is completion of site work)

No Change from Currently Approved CIP

Middle Schools High Schools

1. Cabin John (8/11) 1. Walter Johnson (1/10)/(8/10)

2. Hoover (8/13) 2. Paint Branch (8/12)/(8/13)

3. Farquhar (8/15) 3. Gaithersburg (8/13)/(8/14)

4. Tilden (8/17) 4. Wheaton (8/15)/(8/16)

5. Eastern (8/19) 5. Seneca Valley (8/16)/(8/17)

6. Thomas Wootton (8/18)/(8/19)

Recommended FY 2011 Facility Planning Projects

Modernizations

• Candlewood ES

• Rock Creek Forest ES

• William Farquhar MS

• Wheaton HS

Note: None of the addition projects have planning or construction funding in the out years of the requested CIP. Funding is requested following facility planning.

Additions

• Arcola ES

• Bannockburn ES (capacity study)

• Beall ES

• Flower Hill ES

• Germantown ES/Great Seneca Creek

ES/ Spark Matsunaga ES (capacity

studies)

• Twinbrook ES

• Wood Acres ES (capacity study)

Facility Planning Projects (Continued)

• Complete new FACT assessments for the 41 schools built before 1985 and never modernized

• The FACT tool will be updated with community review and comment

• A consultant will be selected to complete the assessments

• A queue of modernizations for remaining schools will be published in the fall of 2011 with the next full CIP

New Boundary Studies

• Bethesda ES and Bradley Hills ES (assignment for western portion of Bethesda ES service area)

r::t Winter 2009-10 community involvement

r::t BOE review, hearings, and action - February & March, 2010

• Baker MS and Rocky Hill MS (assignment for Rockwell ES)

r::t Winter 2009-10 community involvement

r::t BOE review, hearings, and action - February & March, 2010