Imagining and negotiating pathways in an age of anxiety

and incomplete knowledge

Melissa LeachCRASSH Conference

Cambridge, September 2010

Complex global dynamicsAn age of anxiety and incomplete knowledgeA search for ‘solutions’

A pathways approach

Narratives of crisis and threat Epidemic outbreaks, pandemic threats

– Amidst environmental change, outbreaks are threatening humanity – Emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases, zoonoses - Ebola, SARS,

H5N1, H1N1, Henipah viruses– Rapid spread in a world of mobile people and microbes– Terrifying consequences, dystopias

… and intervention

Epidemic outbreaks, pandemic threats – Identification of outbreaks at source, science and surveillance– Risk assessments, pandemic preparedness– Global co-operation, International Health Regulations (2005)– Roll-out of technological solutions – ‘Active, aggressive’ responses (e.g. Obama 2009 on ‘swine flu’)

Narratives of crisis and threat Global food crisis, African hunger

– Environmental change, growing population and low global food reserves– Threaten a "perfect storm" of food, water and energy shortages by 2030,

triggering ‘major destabilisation, an increase in rioting and potentially significant problems with international migration’ (John Beddington 2009)

– Africa – hunger, low agricultural production

… and intervention

Global food crisis, African hunger– Securing rapid, sustainable agricultural growth– Re-invigoration of ‘green revolution’ - technological solutions to production

problems– Technology in the seed - modern plant breeding, genetic modification– Rolling-out, scaling-up

Narratives

These crisis-and-intervention arguments not wrong but partial and sometimes illusory

• Produced by particular actors and networks • Beginning – a dynamic system• Imaginary - futures desired or feared, specific goals (anxieties) for

system change • Middle – a set of envisaged actions, that must deal with dynamics

and incomplete knowledge • Construction of publics – who will act, who will change their

behaviour, respond• End – catastrophe averted, outcome achieved

Narratives involve particular system framings: Different ways of understanding or

representing a dynamic system and its relevant environment

Dimensions of framing

- Scale- Boundaries- Key elements and relationships- Dynamics in play- Outputs

-- Perspectives-- Interests-- Goals- Values-- Notions of relevant experience

Multiple narratives

• A multiplicity of narratives is in play around any given issue• Political, institutional and power-knowledge processes • Some come to be ‘dominant’ – visible, promoted, interlocked with

the interests and status of the contextually powerful• Some narratives justify and become interlocked with powerful

pathways – trajectories of intervention and change • Alternative narratives, hidden narratives, exclusions….

African seed systems – dominant and alternative narratives

‘The technology is in the seed, and modern plant breeding and genetic engineering can deliver solutions to hunger which need to be rolled out at scale’

• Seed companies, international and national agricultural research institutes, plant breeders and biotechnologists, some funding organisations

• Goals: crop productivity increases• Bounding: field and crop, extrapolated to national food security balances

‘ No one size fits all. Socio-technological solutions must be diverse and adapted to ecological, market, social and institutional contexts. Farmer knowledge and local innovations have a central role to play’

• Farmers, NGOs, other international and national agricultural researchers, agroecologists and social scientists, some funding organisations

• Goals: agriculture for context-specific livelihood challenges• Bounding: the farm, community, the agro-ecological region.

Epidemics – dominant and alternative narratives

‘Outbreaks are threatening humanity. They need to be controlled through effective surveillance and large-scale roll out of singular technological solutions’

• Mainstream public health professionals and organisations; pharmaceutical companies; philanthropic organisations

• Goals: global public health security (especially the health of northern populations, and business continuity)

• Bounding: global

‘Underlying causes need to be tackled, requiring a rethink of surveillance and diverse social, cultural ecological and technological responses’

• Diffuse networks of more field-based professionals, including epidemiologists, ecologists, social scientists; people living with disease environments

• Goals: health systems that can respond to epidemic and endemic diseases, serving diverse needs.

• Bounding: cross-scale (from local to ecosystem to globe)

setting agendas defining problems characterising options

posing questions prioritising issues formulating criteria

deciding context setting baselines drawing boundaries

discounting time choosing methods including disciplines

recruiting expertise commissioning research interpreting results

constituting ‘proof’ exploring sensitivities handling incomplete

knowledge

Narratives differ in how they define and handle incomplete knowledge

Practices of handling incomplete knowledge – in interaction with other practices – are central to how narratives are created and sustained

Handling incomplete knowledge

Practices in narrative creation

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

Dealing with incomplete knowledge

RISKAMBIGUITY

UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

Dealing with incomplete knowledgeIn narratives about H1N1

RISKAMBIGUITY

UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

ostensibly definitivequantitative probabilisticmodels of risk

pandemic or not?impacts of veterinary controls?behaviour change in crisis?interplay in viral ecology / geneticsimmuno -compromisation ?

define ‘outbreak’:distributional consequences?mortality / morbidity?vulnerable groups?economic costs?livelihoods impacts?

new strains of the virus?unexpected transmission vectors?unanticipated health outcomes?complex social interactions?entirely novel pathogens?

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

Dimensions of incomplete knowledgein narratives about GM crops in African settings

RISKAMBIGUITY

UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

specified probabilities ofIdentified potential harms (toxicity, genetic escape)

unknown probabilitiesof identified potential harms in particular African agro-ecological and social contexts

different terms of discussion; e.g. production vs. politicaleconomy or gender relations

unforeseen impacts; e.g. synergistic effects between seeds and diverse bodies/environments

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

decision rules aggregative analysis deliberative process political closure

reductive modelingstochastic reasoningrules of thumbinsurance

` evidence-basing agenda-setting horizon scanning transdisciplinarity

liability lawharm definitions indicators / metrics institutional remits

Powerful pressures to ‘close down’ towards risk

Why does closing down matter?

• Dominance of narratives and pathways that represent and intervene mainly in terms of narrow notions of risk

• Mutual reinforcement of narrative and action; some pathways become motorways

• Sense of control and order may be fragile and illusory• Denies and suppresses key aspects of human-nature technology

dynamism and implications• Denies and suppresses multiplicity of framings and goals• Interventions may prove unsustainable as politics or nature ‘bite

back’ in unexpected ways• May worsen livelihoods and wellbeing of particular groups; felt

injustice or maldistribution may provoke resistance and rejection

From closing down to opening up

Addressing global threats in an age of anxiety will require opening up:

• To recognise multiple narratives that incorporate specific imaginations of the future, anxieties about it and anxieties (goals/strivings for) system change;

• To address multiple dimensions of incomplete knowledge, and their implications

Challenge dominant narratives/pathways; highlight alternatives

Opening up in epidemics governance? Some suggestions

• From risk-based rapid-response to a more inclusive, adaptive, learning-based approach amenable to dealing with incomplete knowledge – including surprise

• Rethink surveillance from tracking disease events, to tracking system dynamics - modelling and participatory work

• Deliberative approaches to debating disease ‘futures possible’, impacts and implications for different groups

• New disciplinary mixes (e.g. epidemiology, ecology, anthropology), ethnographic understandings of disease dynamics and cultural logics

• Professional mixes around new policy platforms (e.g. One World, One Health)• Organisational arrangements and procedures that can embrace diversity,

flexibility, and learning• Citizen mobilisation around perspectives, rights and claims of people living with

disease

Towards a plural anticipatory research/politics for an anxious age

• Analysis - openness, diversity, trans-disciplinarity, reflexivity• Designs – roles for new appraisal tools and methods • Governance – adaptive, reflexive, deliberative• Political engagement –

– influencing policy processes and effecting policy change; – citizen mobilisation, network and alliance-building– shaping public discourse, information and communication flows

in a multi-media knowledge landscape

Humility and reflexivity – taking positionality seriously