Meeting on Risk Transfer, Geneva, December 13 – 14, 2011 1 Agrometeorological Risk Management:...

Meeting on Risk Transfer , Geneva, December 13 – 14, 2011

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AgrometeorologicaAgrometeorological Risk l Risk

Management: Management: Russian Russian

ExperienceExperienceProf. Alexander KleschenkoProf. Alexander KleschenkoNational Institute on Agricultural National Institute on Agricultural

MeteorologyMeteorologyObninsk, RussiaObninsk, Russia


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««From year to year droughts, frosts, lack of show, hot From year to year droughts, frosts, lack of show, hot winds, hailstorms and other atmosphere adversities spoil winds, hailstorms and other atmosphere adversities spoil

our fields and provokeour fields and provoke tremendous losses in our economy tremendous losses in our economy … droughts and frosts go on with their baneful activity, as … droughts and frosts go on with their baneful activity, as

usual usual take away hundred millions rublestake away hundred millions rubles from the state from the state budget, destroy hopes of owners, and shake faith in budget, destroy hopes of owners, and shake faith in

sciencescience»»

ProfProf. P. I. Brounov. P. I. BrounovFrom the report on the First Meteorological Congress at the From the report on the First Meteorological Congress at the Imperator Academy of Science. Imperator Academy of Science.

Saint-Petersburg, January 25, Saint-Petersburg, January 25, 19001900

Total yield of cereals in Russia, mln. t

2008 2010 Shortage of yield due weather

108.2 61.047,2 mln. ton

43,6%


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ФГБУ ФГБУ «ВНИИСХМ«ВНИИСХМ»»


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TopicsTopics• Information about our InstituteInformation about our Institute• Losses from Weather Phenomena & Losses from Weather Phenomena &

Benefits from Hydro-meteorological Benefits from Hydro-meteorological InformationInformation

• The procedures of Risks The procedures of Risks ManagementManagement

• The Attitude to Risks ManagementThe Attitude to Risks Management• Techniques for Agro-meteorological Techniques for Agro-meteorological

Risks EvaluationRisks Evaluation• Trends, Expectations, Further Trends, Expectations, Further

DevelopmentsDevelopments


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About usAbout us

• The Institute was established in The Institute was established in 19771977

• 92 employees, including 7 92 employees, including 7 professors and 15 researches professors and 15 researches with Ph.D.with Ph.D.

• Aim: to investigate and to Aim: to investigate and to understand weather and climate understand weather and climate influence on crop growth, influence on crop growth, development and productivity development and productivity


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About usAbout us• The types of activityThe types of activity

– Development of new techniques Development of new techniques and proceduresand procedures

– Preparation of forecasts, reviews Preparation of forecasts, reviews and reportsand reports

• The areas of activityThe areas of activity– Forecasting, modeling, monitoring, Forecasting, modeling, monitoring,

climate change, agrometeorological climate change, agrometeorological observations, agroclimatology, observations, agroclimatology, remote sensing remote sensing


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Losses from Weather Losses from Weather PhenomenaPhenomena

IndustryIndustry Hazard EventsHazard Events (1986-(1986-191991 )91 )

LossesLosses, , Billions Billions of Rubleof Ruble

AgricultureAgriculture 494494 82,182,1

Fuel & EnergyFuel & Energy 505505 13,713,7

Municipal economyMunicipal economy 304304 12,212,2

Auto & railway transportAuto & railway transport 606606 15,515,5

ConstructionConstruction 7777 9,49,4

ForestryForestry 113113 4,34,3


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82 83 96 105 135

10081106

1330

1739

220

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

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For

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Avi

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Agr

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Tra

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Fue

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y

Util

ities

Pop

ulat

ion

Number of hazardous events that produced economic and social losses in 1991-2005

82 83 96 105 135

10081106

1330

1739

220

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Riv

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For

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Avi

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Agr

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nerg

y

Util

ities

Pop

ulat

ion

Number of hazardous events that produced economic and social losses in 1991-2005

Events of Weather Events of Weather PhenomenaPhenomena


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Benefits from Hydro-meteorological Information inBenefits from Hydro-meteorological Information in 19931993 ( (million US$)million US$)

30.528.5

2.8

7.14.2 5.5

59.1

41.9

21.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

30.528.5

2.8

7.14.2 5.5

59.1

41.9

21.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1 – 1 – AgricultureAgriculture2 – 2 – Fuel & EnergyFuel & Energy3 – 3 – AutoAuto4 – 4 – AviationAviation

5 – 5 – River shippingRiver shipping6 – 6 – Housing servicesHousing services7 – 7 – ShippingShipping8 – Строительство8 – Строительство9 – 9 – OthersOthers


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Benefits from Hydro-meteorological Information inBenefits from Hydro-meteorological Information in 2005 2005

NoNo IndustriesIndustries Profit EstimateProfit Estimate, , Millions of RubleMillions of Ruble % % 1 Industry 4 273,7 30,8

2 Agriculture 1 274,5 9,2

3 Forestry 274,3 2,0

4 Fishing 174,5 1,2

5 Transport & communication 5 618,9 40,5

5.1 railway 462,5 3,3

5.2 auto 556,6 4,0

5.3 pipe 50,1 0,4

5.4 sea 783,9 5,6

5.5 river 769,3 5,5

5.6 air 2 575,9 18,5

5.7-5.9 others 289,7 2,1

5.10 Communication 130,7 0,9

6 Construction 438,6 3,2

7-14 Others 45,0 0,3

15 Housing services 1 209,1 8,7

16 Water industry 437,0 3,1

17-24 Health protection, etc. 140,9 1,0

Total 13 886,50 100,0


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Utilization of Hydrometeorological Utilization of Hydrometeorological informationinformation

1 – Agriculture2 – Shipping

3 – Construction4 – Aviation

losses prevented possibility to prevent losses Unavoidable losses


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Winter Winter cereals cereals

crop crop death death

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The results of 2010 droughtThe results of 2010 drought

Crop death from drought on the Crop death from drought on the area of 13 200 000 hectares area of 13 200 000 hectares

That figure is equal to:That figure is equal to:• 29% from planted area affected by 29% from planted area affected by

droughtdrought • 17% from Russia planted area17% from Russia planted area • 30% from planted area occupied 30% from planted area occupied

by cerealsby cereals


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Risk management - Risk management - TheoryTheory

• Definition of Risk Definition of Risk • Process of Risk ManagementProcess of Risk Management• Tools for Risk Assessment Tools for Risk Assessment • Risk-based Decision-making Risk-based Decision-making


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SeriousnessSeriousness

Combination of the probability of an event with the

impact that event would have

RiskRisk

DANGER DANGER

ProbabilityProbability ProbabilityProbability

SeriousnessSeriousness


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Risk managementRisk management

To develop and maintain the proceduresTo develop and maintain the procedures

HazardsHazardsidentificationidentification

RisksRiskscontrolcontrol

RisksRisksevaluationevaluation


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Some hazardsSome hazards

• Weather hazardsWeather hazards– FrostsFrosts– Droughts Droughts – FloodsFloods– Sand stormsSand storms

• Pests, diseasesPests, diseases• Equipment failures Equipment failures • Problems with market, etc. Problems with market, etc.


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Some toolsSome tools

• Pareto Analysis Pareto Analysis • Change AnalysisChange Analysis• What – if Analysis What – if Analysis • Failure Modes and Effects Failure Modes and Effects

AnalysisAnalysis• Hazard and Operability AnalysisHazard and Operability Analysis• Fault Tree AnalysisFault Tree Analysis• Event Tree Analysis Event Tree Analysis • EtEtcc..


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Risks ControlRisks Control There are some techniquesThere are some techniques for risks for risks

controlcontrol• TerminateTerminate

– To avoid equipment failures do not use any To avoid equipment failures do not use any machinery machinery

• TreatTreat– To replace with alternative technologyTo replace with alternative technology

• TolerateTolerate– To acceptTo accept

• TransferTransfer– To use subcontractors To use subcontractors


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Situation in RussiaSituation in Russia . . . . . .

• The The risk risk management systems management systems are used seldom are used seldom

• In agriculture the decision In agriculture the decision making process is not based onlymaking process is not based only on forecasts or reviewson forecasts or reviews

• Farmers usuallyFarmers usually suffer from more suffer from more serious problems – credits, price serious problems – credits, price gap, depreciated machinery, etc. gap, depreciated machinery, etc.


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Situation in RussiaSituation in Russia

• Only a few agro-meteorologists hear Only a few agro-meteorologists hear something about risk managementsomething about risk management

• The insurance market was very small The insurance market was very small in previous years but now there is in previous years but now there is some progress:some progress:– The insurance law was adopted this yearThe insurance law was adopted this year– There is the state support for agriculture There is the state support for agriculture

insuranceinsurance in general and for farmers in in general and for farmers in particularities particularities


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Draft of procedureDraft of procedure• Name: agro-meteorological support Name: agro-meteorological support

of agricultural insurance in Russiaof agricultural insurance in Russia• 1 – List dangerous phenomenon1 – List dangerous phenomenon• 2 – Criteria for dangerous 2 – Criteria for dangerous

phenomenonphenomenon• 3 – Expertise procedure3 – Expertise procedure

• Requirements for the requestRequirements for the request• Structure of the expert opinionStructure of the expert opinion• Information supportInformation support• Technology of preparationTechnology of preparation

• 4 – Examples 4 – Examples


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The farmer demandsThe farmer demands• End-users are interested in End-users are interested in

different meteorological and agro-different meteorological and agro-meteorolo-gical products:meteorolo-gical products:– Weather forecastsWeather forecasts– Weather hazard warningsWeather hazard warnings– Forecasts on snow meltingForecasts on snow melting– Forecasts on the date of field work Forecasts on the date of field work

beginningbeginning– Expected conditions on crops Expected conditions on crops

wintering wintering


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Thanks for your Thanks for your attentionattention

Meeting on Risk Transfer, Geneva, December 13 – 14, 2011 1 Agrometeorological Risk Management:...

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