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Meeting Minutes Delaware Population Consortium

Annual Meeting April 30, 2009

10:00 a.m. Room 219

Haslet Armory Dover, DE

In Attendance: Janelle Cornwell – Dover Mary Ellen Gray – Kent Co. Jim Galvin – Dover/Kent MPO Ed Ratledge – UD CADSR Don Berry – Department of Education Ric Kautz – Sussex Co. Barbara Gladders – DHSS Dan Blevins – WILMAPCO

Ed Simon – DEDO Marlena Gibson – DHSA DJ Guthrie-Carter – New Castle Co. Terry Pepper – DSHS Richard Harris – OMB/SAC Mike Duross – DelDOT Mike Mahaffie – OMB

The meeting was called to order by Janelle Cornwell at approximately 10:05 a.m. There was a round of introductions. Approval of Previous Meeting Minutes Ed Ratledge made a motion to approve the minutes of the October 31, 2008 meeting as presented. Dan Blevins seconded the motion and it passed unanimously. 2009 Projections Series, Getting Started Ed Ratledge distributed, and led a discussion of, a collection of graphs (attached) showing trends in some of the factors that affect the annual population projections. While natural increase (births minus deaths) remains positive in Delaware, net migration has started to drop statewide and in Kent County. In New Castle County, net migration has become negative. In Sussex, it remains at about the same level that it has been at in recent years. Ed noted that the jobs situation in New Castle County remains very weak. There was a brief discussion of the news about auto plant shutdown in Delaware. The number of new building permits is dropping across the state. In Kent and Sussex Counties, the number of new permits has almost dropped to the level it was at before a recent surge. In New Castle County, the building permits number has been dropping since the 1990s and continues to do so.

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Ed reported that there continues to be an oversupply of housing units, so the construction sector is not expected to start o expands again for some time. There was a discussion of the potential effects of a switch to “workforce housing” on the construction industry. Ric Kautz reported that the foreclosure data for Sussex County shows that foreclosures have been widespread and don’t seem to be strongly affecting any one sector of the market. Housing prices are expected to continue to decline, based on Ed’s study of the Case-Schiller price index, which shows that prices fluctuate, but tend to return to a historically steady level. The index appears to be continuing to decline towards that level nationally. Personal bankruptcies are trending higher, while Consumer confidence is down. Home sales are also down, while the unemployment rate has risen sharply. Unemployment claims are also up. The “leading economic indicators’ are as low as they have ever been, in Ed’s experience. Based on these data, Ed suggested that the economy will not fully recover until 2012, at the earliest, and that will have an impact on the Delaware Population Consortium projections. Ed reported that the latest federal estimates and projections data suggests that our projections model will need to be slowed a bit, to account for a slow-down in economic activity and therefore in migratory growth. Ed handed out a comparison of federal data to the DPC projections (attached) and Barbara Gladders distributed a report on births and deaths in Delaware (attached) which is used in the DPC model instead of federal births/deaths data (the state data are more accurate). Ed also noted that there are data issues to watch. There appears, he said, to be a possible drop in the number of persons in the work force – based on demographic factors (our population is larger older and is approaching what once was retirement age). He noted that that factor will have to be watched to see if it holds true. Meanwhile, Ed will adjust the model and let it run to see what the changes look like. He asked Consortium members to review the information from this meeting and send him word of any problems they find. The results of that work will be a subject at a next DPC meeting. Ed asked that the group plan to start meeting monthly. DPC Overview, Mission and Approach Because there are new members to the DPC, Janelle led a discussion of the history of the DPC and approach that the group takes. Mike Mahaffie, Dan Blevins and Don Berry provided historical context and background. Ric Kautz announced that there is a likelihood that he will retire soon and reported that he is not sure who from Sussex County will be able to replace him. All agreed that he

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will be missed, both on a personal level and for his strong input on data and process issues. Small Area Projection Discussion Mike Mahaffie reported that there is still some interest among OMB leadership in trying to start a Small-Area Population Projections project for Kent and Sussex Counties, to build on work already done for WILMAPCO. A similar project was done in 2007. Funding remains an issue, but Mike reported that he is still trying to put together a funding package. Dan Blevins gave an overview of the approach taken by WILMAPCO and New Castle County and offered to share that knowledge directly with Kent and Sussex officials. Dan also asked that the DPC consider extending its projections horizon out past 2030. The horizon is set in the DPC bylaws as 30 years from the most recent decennial Census. So it will automatically move to 2040 when the DOC does its 2010 projections series. Dan noted that transportation planning projects will need to look at least to 2035 this year. It was agreed that that question would be added to the agenda of the next meeting. There being no further business, the meeting adjourned at 11:33 a.m.

Natural increase by County, Race, and Fiscal Year of Birth FISCAL YEAR OF BIRTHMothers county of residence 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Kent White 521 507 487 484 478 475 595 539 569Black 313 297 262 297 357 333 331 351 435Other 55 61 53 61 66 94 66 51 40Total 889 865 802 842 901 902 992 941 1044

New CastleWhite 1788 1390 1503 1678 1578 1377 1618 1457 1369Black 1023 1037 1048 1114 1040 1106 1176 1252 1325Other 267 298 299 396 395 395 390 510 527Total 3078 2725 2850 3188 3013 2878 3184 3219 3221

Sussex White -57 -92 -70 -50 -27 22 155 223 357Black 211 231 208 185 203 293 192 296 266Other 69 133 134 170 96 54 43 32 55Total 223 272 272 305 272 369 390 551 678

Total White 2252 1805 1920 2112 2029 1874 2368 2219 2295Black 1547 1565 1518 1596 1600 1732 1699 1899 2026Other 391 492 486 627 557 543 499 593 622Total 4190 3862 3924 4335 4186 4149 4566 4711 4943

Natural increase by County and Fiscal Year of Birth FISCAL YEAR OF BIRTH

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Kent Births 1969 1918 1876 1993 2026 2081 2230 2177 2346

Deaths 1080 1053 1074 1151 1125 1179 1238 1236 1302Nat increase 889 865 802 842 901 902 992 941 1044

New CastleBirths 7093 6894 6945 7230 7155 7124 7250 7327 7334Deaths 4015 4169 4095 4042 4142 4246 4066 4108 4113Nat increase 3078 2725 2850 3188 3013 2878 3184 3219 3221

Sussex Births 1860 2071 1997 2110 2102 2253 2302 2416 2525Deaths 1637 1799 1725 1805 1830 1884 1912 1865 1847Nat increase 223 272 272 305 272 369 390 551 678

DE Births 10922 10883 10818 11333 11283 11458 11782 11920 12205Deaths 6732 7021 6894 6998 7097 7309 7216 7209 7262Nat increase 4190 3862 3924 4335 4186 4149 4566 4711 4943