Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda in the Caribbean Alicia...
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Transcript of Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda in the Caribbean Alicia...
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda in the CaribbeanAlicia BárcenaExecutive SecretaryECLAC, United Nations
Georgetown,July 11
Sixteenth meeting of the Monitoring Committee of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Slower growth of global economy affected regional trade
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED CHANGE OF THE VALUE OF EXPORTS ACCORDING TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF VOLUME AND PRICE, 2011 y 2012ª
(In percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures. a Figures for 2012 correspond to estimations.
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
Sou
th A
mer
ica
(exc
ept B
razi
l)B
razi
lC
arib
bean
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGES OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS, 2009-2012(In percentages, three month moving average)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on figures from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
Tourism performs at low rates
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
The current model is unsustainable The crisis is questioning the dominant model, and thus an
opportunity to chart a new course A model associated with two decades of high wealth
concentration Sporadic actions against environmental degradation are
not enough for building long term resilience For the region, this means facing up to its historical and
more recent challenges:• Worst income distribution in the world• Increasingly heterogeneous production patterns• Segmentation of the labour market and social protection• Racial, ethnic and gender discrimination • Asymmetrical vulnerability to climate change
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Where is the Caribbean today: risks and challenges
• Classified as high, middle- income economies except Haiti• Severely affected by the crisis of developed countries• Vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change• Mixed situation in respect of fuel, food and finance• Graduating from concessional financing and preferential trade
although inequities remain• Highly indebtedness with decreasing investment• Rethinking its development models with more innovation and
diversification• Needing a structural change for equality and environmental
sustainability• Inadequate governance structrures – the case of depotees
back to the Caribbean
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
PERCENTAGE OF COUNTRIES FROM EACH REGION CLASSIFIED AS MIDDLE-INCOME
LAC is predominantly a middle-income region: 85% of all countries fall in that category
Only five of all 33 countries in the region are not classified as middle-income: 1 is low-income and 4 are high-income.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
América Latina y el
Caribe
Asia del Sur Oriente Medio y Norte de
Africa
Asia del Este y Pacífico
Africa Sub-Sahariana
Europa y Asia Central
Porcentajes del total
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATES, 2012 (Percentages)
In 2012 the region GDP was 3.0%, and similar rates are expected for 2013 and will be better for Caribbean countries
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
ParaguayBrazil
CaribbeanEl SalvadorArgentina
South America (10 countries)Haiti
Latin America and the CaribbeanGuatemala
Latin AmericaCuba
HondurasDominican Republic
UruguayMexico
ColombiaCentral America (9 countries)
EcuadorCosta Rica
Bolivia (Plur. State of)Nicaragua
ChileVenezuela (Bol. Rep. of)
PeruPanama
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
-1.2 0.90.9
1.61.9
2.52.83.03.03.03.13.3
3.93.93.94.04.3
4.85.15.25.2
5.65.6
6.210.7
Saint Lucia
Dominica
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Jamaica
Barbados
Trinidad and Tobago
Caribbean
Grenada
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Antigua and Barbuda
The Bahamas
Latin America and the Caribbean
Suriname
Guyana
Belize
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
-3.0
-1.5
-1.1
-0.3
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.2
1.5
2.3
2.5
3.0
4.5
4.8
5.3
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
2008 2009 2010 2011 20124.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Brazil Rest of South America (9 countries) Mexico
Central America (6 countries) Caribbean (5 countries)
While unemployment fell in the region, the Caribbean has suffered significant increases
URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 2008 - 2012 (Percentage)
CENTRAL AMERICA
CARIBBEANBRAZIL
REST OF SOUTH AMERICA
MEXICO
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Caribbean tax burden is higher than Latin American countries…
9
CARIBBEAN: TAX INCOME, 2011(As percentge of GDP)
Bahamas
Antigua y Barbuda
Granada
Guyana
Santa Lucía
Saint Kitts y Nevis
San Vicente y las Granadinas
Belice
Jamaica
Dominica
Barbados
Trinidad y Tabago
Suriname
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
LA average(19%)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Towards a sustainable development agenda in
the Caribbean with equality at the center
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
New paradigms are needed: structural change for equality and sustainability
• Economic growth is necessary but not enough• Social protection necessary. Of the 3 dimension of SD, least
emphasis is placed on the social aspect• Open economies require deliberate industrial policies to
increase productivity, value-added jobs & universal social protection
• Addressing persisting inequalities should be the basis of economic and social policies
• Real gender parity should be based on economic autonomy• Neither State-centric or market-centric: need for more
equilibrium• Social and fiscal pacts for the collective provision of public
goods
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
The UN Post -2015 Agenda Provides a Broad Development Framework
• The report of the High-level Panel provides broad useful guidelines for rethinking development
• It moves beyond the MDGs by stressing the need to integrate economic, social and environmental aspects of development into a coherent strategy
• The High-level Panel proposed five transformative shifts to promote sustainable development:
1. Leave no one behind;2. Put sustainable development at the core;3. Transform economies for jobs and inclusive growth;4. Build peace and effective, open and accountable institutions for all
and;5. Forge a new global partnership for sustainable development.However, the report does not address the special circumstances of SIDS
2
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
A Global Partnership must recognize special needs of middle-income SIDS
• Caribbean countries seek to ameliorate five key challenges:– Their structural vulnerability to economic and
financial shocks;– Their graduation from soft development financing
based on middle income status;– The increasing threat that SIDS face from climate
change and natural disasters and more recently;– A mounting debt burden , low investment– Growing inequalities and unemployment
10
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
The Caribbean must carve a reform Agenda based on SIDS Plan of action
• To tailor the development agenda to its needs, the Caribbean requires a reform agenda based on SIDS framework
• The SIDS framework would provide the platform for integrating the economic, social and environmental issues (the Triad) into a single coherent Sustainable development vision.
• Regional integration: new concept of intra-regional trade of intermediate goods and services
4
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Development Vision should be built on Four Key Pillars
Dynamic Structural transformation for inclusive/pro-poor growth;
Regional integration to leverage opportunities and reduce risks;
Full operationalisation of the Caribbean Single Market and the Economy
Social protection for improved equity and capability building and;
A global partnership for prosperity
5
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Integration with convergence is key to build resilience
Boost regional trade, investment and functional cooperation to their full potential;
Provide a training ground for firms to learn the ‘’tricks of the trade’ to penetrate international markets;
Act as an improved mechanism for foreign policy coordination;
South-South and SIDS-SIDS cooperation in trade, energy, food security, adaptation to climate change and technology
Complementarities between regional and subregional institutions: convergence between investment, trade and cooperation
7
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Social equality and economic growth are not mutually exclusive
• Growth with equality; equality as a driver of growth With macroeconomic conditions that mitigate volatility, stimulate
productivity and favour inclusion With production patterns that close internal and external gaps
• Promoting equality by building human skills and actively redressing disparities Universalizing rights and social benefits Fostering inclusion through the labour market Achieving territorial convergence
• Environmental sustainability, with changing patterns of consumption and production
• With a smarter and stronger State capable of redistributing, regulating and supervising
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
1. Stay focus on the remaining gaps to achieve the MDGs 2. New and old challenges call for a new development model based on
a structural change for equality with a rights-base approach3. Increased labor productivity with decent jobs and universal access to
social protection. 4. Link education with employment5. Environmental sustainability with full internalization of costs. 6. Policy and institutions matter: Rule of Law regulation, taxation,
financing and governance of natural resources with a new equation State, market and society
7. Sustainable development goals need convergence, careful sequencing after 2015, to move beyond the minimum goals to universal goals on fair trade, technology transfer and international financial reform
A reading of the post-2015 agenda
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
Towards the future we want in Latin America and the Caribbean
• Fulfillment of MDGs: necessary condition, but not sufficient• From basic needs to filling structural gaps• Fundamental to ensure national and international enabling
conditions/goals• Move from national- and developing-countries-oriented
targets to universal objectives and with revived metrics• The post-2015 development agenda requires a global
financing and technology transfer pact• Needs to consider the vulnerabilities of SIDS• Concepts with a long-term, rights-based approach• The goal: more resilient, self-sufficient and balanced
economies
Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
A Forum is required to keep Development issues centre stage
• We propose that the Caribbean Development Roundtable (CDR) is the ideal forum for this purpose
• The CDR is a High Level Development Forum that brings together experts from the public and private sectors and civil society to:* Discuss development Challenges and Opportunities in the Caribbean* Provide practical recommendations that could be considered for implementation by policy makers
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Medium-term challenges and the shaping of a post-2015 development agenda Alicia Bárcena
The CDR is the ideal Forum
• The ECLAC Caribbean Office has launched two successful CDRs.
• The last CDR was held in Guyana in 2012.
• It focused on how the region could use macroeconomic policies to advance structural transformation and social protection in the Caribbean
• It proposed a programme of radical restructuring to develop competitive exports and
• social protection focused on investing in the skills and capacity of the poor
12