Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System:present state and future development

Marina Tonani and the Operational Oceanography Group at

INGV, Italy

Outline:

•MFS-MOON•Monitoring sytem•Basin forecasting system•Regional forecasting system•Basin and regional coupled physical and geo-biological models•Application (oil spill, body rescue, contaminant)•Evaluation of the forecast•R&D•Conclusion

MultidisciplinaryMulti-platformObserving system(permanentand relocatable)

Numerical models of

hydrodynamics and ecosystem,

coupled asynchronouslyto atmospheric

forecast

Data assimilation for optimal field

estimates and

parameter estimation

Continuos production of nowcasts/forecasts of relevant environmental state variables

The operational approach:from large to coastal space scales (NESTING),

weekly to monthly time scales

MFS philosophy MOON

MOON goals:To consolidate the operational oceanographic observational/modelling system in the Mediterranean SeaTo demonstrate the usage of the marine environmental prediction system for integrated management of open ocean and coastal marine areas

•Multiparametric buoys (M3A) in Ligurian, Adriatic and Cretan Sea

•XBT VOS/Soop

•ARGO FLOAT (MedArgo)

•Daily SST from satellite interpolated in RT on the model grid (1/16°x1/16°)

•SLA from satellite (Jason1, GFO, ENVISAT and T/P)

•Open ocean monitoring by gliders

•Scatterometer daily winds analysis on a grid of 1/2°x1/2°

Monitoring System:

gliders SOOP ARGO Buoy

Real time data collected over the period: 2004-2006

Basin scale forecasting system:

MFS1671

BATHYMETRY (m)

NUMERICAL MODEL:

•Horizontal resolution 1/16°x1/16°•Vertical resolution 72 unevenly spaced levels•Numerical codeOPA 8.2 •Close boundaries in the Atlantic ocean•Free surface parameterization•Asyncrhronously coupled with ECWF analyses or forecasts atmospheric fields

DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME:

•SOFA: sub optimal interpolation scheme•Multivariate (X) and multidata (Y) in input•Intermittent (24hr) assimilation of:

Satellite SLA Vertical profiles (T & S)Satellite SST

))(( boba XYKXX H

1)( RHBHBHK TT

TST X

Forecast production and broadcast:

•Every day 10 days forecast are produced in RT (11hr delay)

•Every Thursday 15 days hindcast are produce with the assimilation of all the available data

•Every day a Web Bulletin is published

•Every month an electronic monthly bulletin is released on the web site describing the results of the MFS system for the previosly month and comparing them with climatological data and climatic index

•Every day the data are available through a dedicated ftp to all the users

www.bo.ingv.it/mfs

Sub-regional models at 3 km Shelf models at 1-2 km

ESEOO

POSEIDON

MFS disseminate daily forecasts to 11 nested models

MFS offline coupling between physics and biochemistry

providing meteo-marine information customize simulation of trajectories

Application:support to the italian Coast Guard for body rescue

12°24'

12°24'

12°36'

12°36'

12°48'

12°48'

13°

13°

13°12'

13°12'

44°45' 44°45'

44°50' 44°50'

44°55' 44°55'

45° 45°

45°05' 45°05'

45°10' 45°10'

Adricosm 2007.09.28

GEBCO Bathymetry, m

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Current Velocity, knots (5 m)

INTEGRATION TIME:12:00 24th September 12:00 27th September

Currents from Adriatic Regional model at 2km resolution

Release of 7 particels

Trajectories from UVT at 5m depth

MAN OVERBOARD

Support to REMPEC for the NEWFLAME accident in the area of Gibraltar

•currents from MFS model and interpretation of the meteo-marine conditions•dedicated simulation of oil dispertion with MEDSLICK

11 sett. 2007

Alcecira Bay

12 sett. 2007

Alcecira Bay

14 sett. 2007

Alcecira Bay

15 sett. 2007

Alcecira Bay

NR evaluation of the basin scale forecast:Web evaluation updated every week

Four cm

0.2 PSU

One degree

PERIOD:June 2004-July 2006

DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast:Skillscore

1001

FP

FASSP

SSP=percentage accuracy of the forecast (FA) with respect to the persistency (FP) (murphy 1983)

22 ten days forecasts (16th August 2005 to 10th January 2006)

SSP>0 forecast more accurate then persistence

SS

P %

OF

SK

ILL

SC

OR

E

DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast:comparison with indipendent buoy data

January 2005

April-May 2005

(J.Pistoia, Tesi di Laurea, 2007)

DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast:comparison with indipendent buoy data

Temperature:

VALENCIA ALBORAN

DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast:comparison with indipendent buoy data

Salinity:

CABO DE GATA ALBORAN

MFS R&D:

•New basin scale ocean model nested with operational MERCATOR global model

•New assimilation scheme (3D-VAR)

•Ensamble methodologies (Bayesian)

•Production of re-analyses for the past 50 years

•Re-formulation of air-sea fluxes bulk formulae

•Increase resolution of all the regional-shelf nested models

•Introduce data-assimilation also at regional and coastal scale

•Develop further relocatable model for contaminant dispersal

CONCLUSIONS:

•The MOON system is delivering every day a quality controlled, observationally based information about the physical state of the system and the short term forecasts

•The MOON operational products are evolving toward a routine marine environmental state assessment service with ecosystem forecasting becoming a reality

•GMES will offer the framework for the sustainability of the system: need to worry about a good balance between operationality and research

•MOON is forcing in several R&D directions: