Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security
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Transcript of Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security
Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security
Dimitris KeridisAssociate Professor of International PoliticsPanteion University
From the Arab Springto the Spring of Jihad?
The Problem
After Mosul: the collapse of Syria and Iraq
ISIS and the emergence of a Sunni Caliphate
The Problem
The Framework
External forces: The US intervention in Iraq in 2003
Regional forces: The democratic awakening of the Arab peopleThe Shia-Sunni DivideThe Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry+Turkey, +Russia, +USA
The Framework
Internal forces:
Nouri al-Maliki Bashar Assad The Kurds
Other Factors
Obama’s aloofness after withdrawing from Iraq in 2011
The regional/international constellation
Consequences and prospects
Collapse, re-drawing of borders, protracted civil war
Consequences and prospects
A basis for global jihad
Consequences and prospects
Mass migration
Consequences and prospects
Rapprochement between Iran and the US
Consequences and prospects
The US political polarization: the neo-cons and the rest