Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security

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Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security Dimitris Keridis Associate Professor of International Politics Panteion University From the Arab Spring to the Spring of Jihad?

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Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security. From the Arab Spring to the Spring of Jihad?. Dimitris Keridis Associate Professor of International Politics Panteion University. The Problem. After Mosul: the collapse of Syria and Iraq ISIS and the emergence of a Sunni Caliphate. The Problem. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security

Page 1: Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security

Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security

Dimitris KeridisAssociate Professor of International PoliticsPanteion University

From the Arab Springto the Spring of Jihad?

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The Problem

After Mosul: the collapse of Syria and Iraq

ISIS and the emergence of a Sunni Caliphate

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The Problem

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The Framework

External forces: The US intervention in Iraq in 2003

Regional forces: The democratic awakening of the Arab peopleThe Shia-Sunni DivideThe Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry+Turkey, +Russia, +USA

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The Framework

Internal forces:

Nouri al-Maliki Bashar Assad The Kurds

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Other Factors

Obama’s aloofness after withdrawing from Iraq in 2011

The regional/international constellation

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Consequences and prospects

Collapse, re-drawing of borders, protracted civil war

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Consequences and prospects

A basis for global jihad

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Consequences and prospects

Mass migration

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Consequences and prospects

Rapprochement between Iran and the US

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Consequences and prospects

The US political polarization: the neo-cons and the rest