1

Arenado makes Gold Glove history Rockies' star is first third baseman to win in each of first 4 seasons By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | November 8th, 2016

DENVER -- No third baseman in history has gloved as much gold as quickly as the Rockies' Nolan Arenado.

Arenado on Tuesday became the first third baseman in history -- and the first National Leaguer at any position - to earn

Rawlings Gold Glove Awards his first four seasons in the Majors.

Arenado is the first third baseman to win four straight Gold Gloves since Scott Rolen had a five-year run (2000-04), and

he joined outfielder Ichiro Suzuki as the only players to win the award in each of their first four seasons. Ichiro's run lasted

10 years, all with the Mariners.

"It's an amazing thing," Arenado said. "I have worked really hard at my defense. This is something I take a lot of pride in. I

have to thank God that I have been able to stay healthy, for the most part. It's a good feeling that your hard work pays off."

Fellow Rockies DJ LeMahieu at second base and Carlos Gonzalez in right field were finalists for Gold Gloves. However,

the second-base award went to the Giants' Joe Panik and the right-field winner was the Cubs' Jason Heyward.

"I love playing defense," Arenado said. "Hitting is just so hard sometimes, but I want to impact the game someway,

somehow. So defense is something I take a lot of pride in."

MEDIA CLIPS – November 9, 2016

2

Managers and coaches for each club voted for players in their league, but were not allowed to vote for players on their

team, to account for 75 percent of the selection process. The Society for American Baseball Research applies the SABR

Defensive Index for the other 25 percent.

Arenado led NL third basemen in total chances (490), assists (378) double plays (39), range factor per game (2.98),

defensive runs saved (20) and defensive WAR (2.3) while ranking second in fielding percentage (.973) and zone rating

(.824).

Arenado became the 19th Gold Glove winner in Rockies history and joined Todd Helton for second-most. Outfielder Larry

Walker has the club record with five.

3

Roster, payroll flexibility have Bridich optimistic By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | November 8th, 2016

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich embraces his task: Build upon the hiring of Bud Black as

new manager and a 2016 season that saw Colorado remain relevant in the standings until the final month.

To do so, Bridich has a key element -- a payroll increase beyond the club-record $120.56 million the Rox spent in 2016.

Bridich, heading into his third year as GM after the team went 75-87 under Walt Weiss in 2016, can address holes at first

base and in the bullpen without feeling limited.

And the optimism with which Bridich attacks setting his 2017 roster is even higher than the payroll.

"I do believe that there is a groundswell of internal belief here that is real," Bridich said. "Our next step in addition to that,

or with that groundswell, is actually being consistent and being competitive for six-plus months of the season and being a

winning organization."

The two areas of need are tangible areas to improve. Both showed up during a fade that saw the Rockies go 23-34 from

Aug. 1.

The bullpen finished the year with a Majors-worst 5.13 ERA that was 5.80 after Aug. 1. And although the Rockies' offense

led the NL overall with a .794 on-base plus slugging percentage, their first basemen finished 10th at .751. A huge chunk

of the issue at first was because Mark Reynolds (now a free agent) played in just 12 games after Aug. 1 because of two

separate broken bones in his left hand.

"If we can add an impactful bat at first base -- we still have not solved the post-Todd Helton era, large shoes to fill -- that's

certainly on our mind," Bridich said. "And how can we upgrade the bullpen? I don't think it's going to be a bullpen overhaul

in our future, but we're going to be strategic."

The Rockies won't be unlimited in their spending. It's likely that the team's biggest payroll item will be Mets infielder Jose

Reyes, whom the Rockies released last year. Much of the payroll increase will be arbitration-induced in the form of lefty

4

reliever Jake McGee (fourth year of arbitration), NL batting champion DJ LeMahieu, righty starter Tyler Chatwood (third

years), and star third baseman Nolan Arenado and center fielder Charlie Blackmon (second years).

But Bridich will be looking for smart ways to spend money to fill holes.

The GM said he isn't necessarily looking for an established closer -- with righty Adam Ottavino an attractive internal option

-- but he is keeping an open mind. Much of the improvement will hinge on returns to health by McGee (left knee) and last

year's free-agent signings, Jason Motte (shoulder) and Chad Qualls (colitis), as well as younger relievers such as Carlos

Estevez improving from a year's experience.

Bridich said he has spoken to lefty Boone Logan, who had a solid 2016 after battling injury the previous two years, but

Logan will be testing the free-agent market.

At first base, Bridich said he is not limiting the search to right-handed hitters, even though the roster -- especially the

outfield -- is lefty dominant, since talent is more important than left-right balance.

Other areas to watch will be catcher and the bench. Veteran Nick Hundley is a free agent that Bridich is fond of, but he

expressed comfort with 2016 rookies Tony Wolters, Tom Murphy and Dustin Garneau. Bridich also complimented the

contributions of two other free agents -- lefty-hitting utility man Daniel Descalso and righty outfielder Ryan Raburn -- but

whether they'll be re-signed is uncertain.

5

Nolan Arenado wins 4th consecutive National League Gold Glove award By PATRICK SAUNDERS | psaunders@denverpost.com PUBLISHED: November 8, 2016 at 2:41 pm | UPDATED: November 9, 2016 at 9:39 am

The baseball rolls slowly up the third baseline, but like a flash of lightning, Nolan Arenado bare-hands the ball and throws

a strike to first base, nipping the runner by half a step.

The baseball sizzles toward left field, looking like a sure base hit, but Arenado is there to snag it, throw across his body

and start a double play at second base.

Game after game, the Rockies’ 25-year-old slugging third baseman pulls off another web gem. The spectacular has

become routine, but not to be taken for granted.

Tuesday night, Arenado won another Gold Glove, becoming the first third baseman in major-league history to win four

consecutive Gold Gloves to begin his career. The only other third baseman to begin his career with three Gold Gloves in a

row was the Red Sox’s Frank Malzone, who won from 1957-59.

“Yeah, it’s an amazing thing,” Arenado said. “I have worked really hard at my defense. This is something I take a lot of

pride in that. I have to thank God that I have been able to stay healthy, for the most part. It’s a good feeling that your hard

work pays off.”

Arenado was the only Rockies player to strike gold. Second baseman DJ LeMahieu was a finalist, but he lost out to Joe

Panik of the San Francisco Giants. LeMahieu, who captured the National League batting crown this season with a .348

average, won a Gold Glove in 2014.

Slugging right fielder Carlos Gonzalez also was a finalist, hoping to win his fourth Gold Glove, but he was beaten out by

the Chicago Cubs’ Jason Heyward. Gonzalez previously won in 2010, 2012 and 2013.

Arenado’s expertise is illustrated not only by the jaw-dropping plays he makes at third base, but defensive metrics.

According to Fangraphs, the runaway National League leader in defensive runs saved with 20. Last month, won his

second consecutive Fielding Bible Award, which picks the top player at each position regardless of league. The awards,

6

given by ACTA Sports, were decided by a 12-person panel of experts, who awarded the third baseman all but one first-

place vote.

“I love playing defense,” Arenado said. “Hitting is just so hard sometimes. But I want to impact the game someway,

somehow. So defense is something I take a lot of pride in.

“I will never forget what Tulo (Troy Tulowitzki) told me. He always said you have to take pride in your defense, because it

can change games.”

Arenado tied for the NL lead with 41 home runs and led the majors with 133 RBIs, but he is not one of the three finalists

for the NL MVP, which will be announced next week.

Colorado players have won 19 Gold Gloves. Outfielder Larry Walker has the most with five, followed by Arenado with four,

while Gonzalez and first baseman Todd Helton are tied for third with three each.

Managers and coaches for each club voted for players in their league, but they could not vote for players on their team, to

account for 75 percent of the selection process. The Society for American Baseball Research applies the SABR

Defensive Index for the other 25 percent.

7

Chad Bettis established himself in the Colorado Rockies rotation in 2016 The right-hander confirmed his place as a reliable, if not flashy, mid-rotation starter for Colorado. By Jordan Freemyer Nov 8, 2016, 4:13pm MST Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Chad Bettis pitched his first full big league season in 2016, and acquitted himself quite

well in the process.

Bettis was a mainstay in the Rockies rotation, leading the club with 32 starts and 186 innings pitched, both career highs

for him as well.

“I think to stay healthy was one of my main goals this year,” Bettis said prior to the Rockies’ 2016 finale against

Milwaukee. “And I accomplished that. Going forward, I need to keep going and making sure I’m taking sure I’m taking care

of my body the best I can.”

In those 186 innings, Bettis posted a 4.79 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, to go with a 4.27 FIP and 138 strikeouts.

“I think for me I would say it was average,” Bettis said. “I think that there were flashes of being really good, but for my

standards over the course of the whole year I would say it was average.”

To be fair to Bettis, his ERA+ was 102, or slightly above average.

Most of the flashes of being really good came in the second half of Bettis’ season, in which he posted a 3.75 ERA in 84

innings. His best outing of the year came on September 5, when he needed just 103 pitches to complete a two-hit shutout

of the Giants at Coors Field. That performance was one of 14 wins for Bettis in 2016, tops among Rockies pitchers.

“The 14 wins was awesome, it was a big accomplishment,” Bettis said. “My whole game plan is just to go out there and

give my team a chance to win, and if we win, it’s great, whether I get the win or not it doesn’t matter.”

Bettis credited better command of his off-speed pitches for his strong second half, something he hopes to carry into next

season.

8

“There were times this second half where that came to light, but my goal is to make sure I can do that over the course of a

year,” Bettis said.

There were, however, bumps in the road in 2016 for Bettis, as there would be with any starter with an ERA approaching

5.00. The biggest of those came in May in which Bettis allowed 13 earned runs in 8 1⁄3 innings in back-to-back starts

against the Reds and Red Sox.

“I think be a little more consistent in starts in general,” Bettis said. “Not have a blow up game where I don’t go 5 or 6

innings, I think that’s one of my main goals next year is to make sure something like that doesn’t happen.”

2017 Outlook

Along with fellow right-hander Tyler Chatwood, Bettis is penciled into the middle of the Rockies rotation entering 2017. He

said that he is mostly looking to stay healthy and for more consistency in his performance going forward into next season.

“There are things that I can do better and things that I can be a little more consistent with,” Bettis said. “There was a little

bit (of that) in the second half, but I need to hold that over the course of a whole year.”

As for the team as a whole, Bettis said he expects big things from the Rockies in 2017.

“I see us going to the playoffs, honestly,” Bettis said. “I think those are our expectations, I think we have all the right, key

pieces and it’s going to be an exciting year next year.”

9

Rockies' Nolan Arenado wins 4th consecutive Gold Glove award Arenado became the first third baseman in a decade to win the award four straight times. By Bryan Kilpatrick Nov 8, 2016, 6:33pm MST Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado on Tuesday won his fourth Gold Glove in as many big league seasons.

Arenado beat out the Washington Nationals' Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 25-

year-old star led all major league third basemen in Defensive Runs Saved with 20 and had 24 more Good Fielding Plays

(per Fielding Bible video review) than any other player who manned the hot corner in 2016, according to ESPN's Mark

Simon.

Arenado is the first third baseman to win four or more consecutive Gold Gloves since Eric Chavez won six in a row for the

Oakland Athletics from 2001 through 2006.

Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu lost out on his second Gold Glove, with Joe Panik of the San Francisco Giants

earning the award. Panik missed 40 games but finished with 16 Defensive Runs Saved, compared to three for LeMahieu.

Three-time Gold Glove winner Carlos Gonzalez, the Rockies' third finalist, was beaten out by Chicago Cubs right fielder

Jason Heyward. CarGo finished the year with four Defensive Runs Saved, well behind Heyward's 14 in right and 18

overall.

10

Colorado Rockies News and Notes: Nolan Arenado Golden Again By Kevin Henry – November 9, 2016 / Rox Pile Another year, another Gold Glove for Nolan Arenado, the All-Star third baseman for the Colorado Rockies.

Arenado earned his fourth consecutive Gold Glove on Tuesday night, earning the award over Washington’s Anthony

Rendon and Justin Turner of the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the win, the 25-year-old became the first third baseman

since Oakland’s Eric Chavez to earn the award four or more times. Chavez captured six between 2001 and 2006.

It’s another piece of hardware for Arenado, who grabbed his second consecutive Fielding Bible award in late October.

The news, however, wasn’t so good for fellow Rockies DJ LeMahieu and Carlos Gonzalez, who were also in the running

for Gold Gloves at second base and right field, respectively. LeMahieu was bested by San Francisco’s Joe Panik while

Jason Heyward of the Chicago Cubs earned his fourth Gold Glove by topping CarGo.

You can see the complete list of Gold Glove winners by clicking here.

It may have gone a bit under the radar, but former Colorado reliever Justin Miller has signed a free agent deal with the

Los Angeles Angels.

In his two seasons in Colorado, the right-hander posted a 4-4 record and 4.97 ERA in 74 games. He was outrighted to

Triple-A Albuquerque by the Rockies on October 12 and elected free agency the next day.

Rockies prospect Ryan McMahon earned a Top 9 Performer Award from MLB.com for his performance in the recent

Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game.

McMahon started at first base and went 1-for-2 with a two-run homer. However, his East team fell to the West, 12-4.

Through his first 16 games with the AFL’s Salt River Rafters, McMahon is hitting .263 with six RBI.

11

Colorado Rockies Rumors: Neftali Feliz Heading to Denver? By Kevin Henry – November 8, 2016 / Rox Pile In their annual list of the Top 50 Major League Baseball Free Agents and predictions on where they will land,

MLBTradeRumors.com has the Colorado Rockies landing just one of the top 50 free agents out on the market.

There has been speculation that the Rockies might pursue an elite closer like Aroldis Chapman (we detailed why that’s a

bad idea here) or Mark Melancon. However, MLBTR doesn’t see the Rockies getting either pitcher with the duo heading

to the New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants, respectively. Melancon, a Colorado native, in the Bay Area

obviously wouldn’t be a welcome sight for the Rockies.

MLBTR, however, does believe the Rockies will land a top free agent pitcher. The site predicts Colorado will land Neftali

Feliz in a three-year, $18 million deal. Here’s what the site says about the reliever who they ranked No. 25 and went 4-2

with a 3.52 ERA in 62 relief appearances for Pittsburgh last season…

After a terrible 2015 season, the Tigers chose not to tender Feliz a contract. The 28-year-old made good on a one-year,

$3.9MM deal with the Pirates, striking out 61 batters in 53 2/3 innings while displaying a 96 mile per hour fastball. Feliz

had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and ended his 2016 season with a minor arm injury Assuming the recent injury

is not a concern, Feliz ranks as the top setup man on the free agent market. The Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Cubs, Reds,

Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Twins, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, and Nationals are potential suitors.

Ranking as “the top setup man on the free agent market” would make for a good fit in the Colorado bullpen. Assuming

that Adam Ottavino will once again assume the closing role for the Rockies this season, having Feliz as a setup man

would strengthen the back end of the bullpen and free up Carlos Estevez or even the returning Jairo Diaz to move into

perhaps more of a seventh-inning role.

It’s been said that one of Pittsburgh’s priorities in the offseason is to re-sign Feliz so it will be interesting to see if he truly

hits the open market.

As for other potential Colorado targets, MLBTR is predicting Mark Trumbo will once again be with the Baltimore Orioles

and Mike Napoli will re-sign with Cleveland. Matt Holliday is predicted to sign a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers.

12

Those scenarios would eliminate many of the free agent options for the Rockies at first base that we discussed in this

article.

And what about current Rockies who are expected to leave LoDo? MLBTR is forecasting Nick Hundley to sign a two-year

deal with the Angels and Boone Logan to become a member of the Chicago White Sox thanks to a two-year agreement.

13

Hiring Bud Black is the logical move Rockies fans have been waiting for By Chris Bohn - November 9, 2016 The Colorado Rockies, a team who gave us “paired pitching” back in 2012 and in 2013 hired a manager whose only on-

field experience (outside of his playing days) came at the high school level, has finally made a logical move says one of

the team’s former players.

“An organization that has been thought of by their fans for making illogical moves has finally made a logical move in hiring

Bud Black,” Jason Hirsh, retired Rockies pitcher, told Eric Goodman and Les Shapiro of Afternoon Drive on Mile High

Sports AM 1340 | FM 104.7. “I think it was a very good move. Bud Black qualifies; he is very intimate with the National

League West and, obviously, he has a tremendous pitching background. That’s something the fan base has been

clamoring for, for such a long time. You finally got a guy who’s a specialist in pitching. He can manage a pitching staff like

the best of them.”

This Rockies have hired from within the organization numerous times since their run to the 2007 and ’09 playoffs, which

has translated to no success. Bringing in Black, who has no previous ties with the Rockies, will bring in new ideas and a

new voice for the players to listen to and learn from. It echoes a similar move two years ago that is paying dividends

where the Rockies need it most: Pitching.

“I’m not super-surprised that they went outside of the organization,” Hirsh said. “They did it when they hired Steve Foster

to be their pitching coach and I think he has done a marvelous job in the two years he has been with the organization. I

think it was a great move to bring in an outside mind.”

Bringing in an outside mind will bring a freshness to this ball club. The players were used to listening to the same voices

and ideas for years now and Black will bring in a new meaning to Colorado baseball.

“I think it was necessary to bring in some other ideas,” Hirsh said. “Some other thoughts that aren’t the same thing that

you hear over and over. Some of these guys have heard the same voices – whether they came up through the Triple-A,

listening to Glenallen Hill, some of the other coaching staff that was at the big league level before they were all let go.

They hear them all throughout the minor leagues and then they get to the big leagues and it’s all the same voices and

messages.”

14

Black managed the San Diego Padres for eight-plus years and won National League Manager of the Year in 2010. He

has great pitching background as he pitched for 15 seasons, winning 121 games in his career and won the 1985 World

Series with the Kansas City Royals.

15

Nolan Arenado wins fourth Gold Glove Award By MHS Staff – November 8, 2016 That Nolan Arenado kid is pretty darn good.

Not only did he lead the National League in both home runs and RBIs, but he earned his fourth consecutive Gold Glove

Award on Tuesday.

Colorado Rockies 4 seasons, 4 Gold Gloves! CONGRATULATIONS to Nolan Arenado on another #GoldGlove!

#GoldenNolan The 25-year-old has played four seasons of professional baseball and he now has four Gold Glove awards. You can’t do

much better than that.

Unfortunately, his infield teammate, D.J. LeMahieu, wasn’t able to earn his second Gold Glove Award, as Joe Panik took

home the honor.

16

Nolan Arenado wins 4th consecutive Gold Glove By Drew Creasman - November 9, 2016 BSN Denver

Last night, Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado won his fourth consecutive NL Gold Glove award. He became

the first player in National League history to win the award in each of his first four chances.

Arenado beat out Anthony Rendon of the Washington Nationals and Justin Turner of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This news comes as a total lack of surprise and only serves to further cement Arenado as one of the greatest gloveman

the game has seen in a long, long, time.

Of course, Arenado missed out on a nomination for NL MVP despite leading the league in home runs, RBI, and now

winning this defensive award yet again.

17

Trevor Story shunned as BBWAA NL Rookie of the Year finalist By Andrew Dill - November 8, 2016 / BSN Denver On Monday night, the Baseball Writers Association of America released the finalists for four different awards, including

Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP for their respective leagues.

One name missing as a finalist for National League Rookie of the Year was Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story.

Kenta Maeda, Corey Seager, and Trea Turner were crowned the three finalists for the NL.

Trevor Story played a key part in Colorado’s success early on in the season, demonstrating both power and defense from

the shortstop position. Unfortunately for Colorado and Story, his season came to an end after suffering a torn ulnar

collateral ligament in his left thumb. The injury happened after Story slid into second against the New York Mets on Jul.

30. He then re-aggravated the injury later on in the game after diving for a ground ball.

As soon as Story went down, it seemed like the Rockies went down with him.

Story played in just 98 games this year, slashing at a line of .272/.341/.567 with 21 doubles, four triples, 27 home runs, 35

walks, and 72 RBI. What’s even more remarkable is the fact that Story led all rookies in home runs and tied for first with

Corey Seager in RBI with 72 apiece.

Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers: 157 games — .308/.365/.512, 40 2B, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 54 BB.

Trea Turner, Washington Nationals: 73 games –.342/.370/.567 14 2B, 8 3B, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 14 BB.

Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers: 32 starts — 175.2 IP, 16-11, 3.48 ERA, 179 K’s, 1.14 WHIP, .229 BAA.

Corey Seager should be the clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and it’s not even close. Trea Turner appeared in just

73 games — a small sample size although a .342 average is good regardless. Say for instance if Story and Turner flip-

flopped seasons. Story putting up those numbers toward the end of the season would be more feasible opposed to Turner

doing so at the beginning. At that point, you’d have to think Story would be a finalist.

18

But alas, he was not and those who made a national case over DJ LeMahieu winning the batting title in a fashion they

found less than savory have remained silent which helps put into perspective why former Rockies manager Walt Weiss

went to extra lengths to help one of his players receive that kind of recognition.

There may be some argument for getting Nolan Arenado into the MVP conversation, but there are no good arguments for

keeping Trevor Story out of ROY talk. His injuries at the end of the season did not dip his value below those of his

competitors and creating more value in less time should not be counted against you. If anything, it’s another feather in his

cap that Story was able to achieve so much in slightly limited time.

Both players are falling victim a bit to the complete rejection of RBI as a valid statistic, and it certainly doesn’t help that

they play in Colorado and few people outside this area actually watch their games. But all awards aside, the Rockies are

incredibly happy with their young core, and one suspects they wouldn’t replace Story with any other rookie in baseball.

Well … maybe Corey Seager.

19

Buyers beware: Will Angels, Rockies be this winter's Diamondbacks? Sam Miller – 8:00 AM MT The baseball season ends, and the news conference season begins.

Over the next two months, teams will sign players, fit hats on players, invite you to clap for players, raise expectations

around players and then, as often as not, come to be better off without the players. Last year was a bit extreme -- in

almost every way -- but consider the 10 best free agents from the winter of 2015-2016. Where are they now?

Jason Heyward: Coming off a career-worst season; benched during the postseason

Zack Greinke: Coming off his worst ERA since he was 21; made his fewest starts since he was 23

David Price: Coming off his worst ERA since he was 23; chased in the fourth inning of his only postseason start

Justin Upton: Coming off his worst OPS since he was 20

Yoenis Cespedes: Coming off a repeat of his excellent 2015 performance, though in his fewest games since his rookie

year

Alex Gordon: Coming off his worst season as a regular

Chris Davis: Coming off a pretty good season but with big drop-off from his 2015 walk-year performance

Dexter Fowler: A stud

Johnny Cueto: A stud

Scott Kazmir: Coming off his worst season since he was an Angel

The Hot Stove is a game of failure. Succeed three out of 10 times, and you're a Hall of Famer.

20

For the most part, it's also necessary for building a good team. Keep that in mind if you find yourself in auto-backlash

mode, leading every take with bullet points such as the ones I just laid out. The offseason promises a lot and delivers less.

It is your least reliable friend. But like your very least reliable friend, it is still a better last-minute babysitting option than a

cat.

Every year, at least one team asks much more of it than that, and this is where the offseason can become toxic. From a

team's perspective, accurately assessing where it stands going into the winter is arguably as important as accurately

assessing the merits of the players available. In recent history, we've seen:

1. The Diamondbacks, a third-place team in 2015, outspend the Dodgers for Greinke and trade their most valuable

prospect, first overall pick Dansby Swanson, for Shelby Miller. This promised to give the Diamondbacks a nice start to a

playoff rotation, but the Diamondbacks weren't very good going into the offseason and didn't get good enough by the end.

They projected to be around a .500 team going into the 2016 season, things got worse, and they finished fourth.

2. The Padres, a third-place team in 2014, traded for five new starting position players, a new Opening Day starter, a new

closer and a new setup man before the 2015 season. But the Padres weren't very good going into the offseason and

didn't get good enough by the end. They projected to be around a .500 team, things got worse, and they finished fourth.

3. The White Sox, a fourth-place team in 2014, traded for Jeff Samardzija and signed Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche,

all two- to four-win players in 2014. The Sox also signed David Robertson and Zach Duke, both coming off outstanding

seasons as high-leverage relievers. But the White Sox weren't very good going into the offseason and didn't get good

enough by the end. They projected to be around a .500 team, things got worse, and they finished fourth.

It'd be easy to overstate some of these examples -- heck, if all you knew about baseball was these three teams, you'd

conclude that the only constants in the game are that things get worse and teams finish fourth. There were other factors in

these teams' struggles, from injuries to unforeseeable collapses to the whims of random fluctuation. But pair them with the

list at the top, from Heyward to Kazmir, and there's a pretty obvious warning here: Don't let the Hot Stove do all the lifting.

If you need five costly players to get where you're trying to go, you probably aren't getting there. You probably just aren't

that good.

These are extremely, gratuitously early projections for the 2017 season, published at FanGraphs:

21

These projections are based on the rosters teams have today, with free agents removed. These are less precise than

normal projections, which are already fully outgunned by the unpredictability of actual baseball. But they give us a sense

of where teams stand right now. The Brewers are, according to this, ready to field a 69-win team. If they add five good

players and give up nothing to do so, they still probably aren't good enough to compete for a title with any reliability.

The Brewers aren't going to try. They aren't even in danger of trying. They know where they are, and they know that the

path to where they want to go is the long way: through the regular season, through the draft, through thousands of hours

of player development and patiently waiting for the right move to open up. Other teams, though, are in more dangerous

positions: close enough to convince themselves. Which teams are in the most danger of being this year's Diamondbacks,

this year's Padres and this year's White Sox?

American League entrant: The Angels. This is not intended to be a referendum on each team's GM. There probably

isn't a GM employed today whom I wouldn't trust with a team, and I'm comfortable assuming they all have good

perspective and a rational set of interests. But traditionally, it has been hard to know where the Angels GM stops and the

ownership begins, and the owner -- Arte Moreno -- has a long history of overseeing (even ordering) big splashes for

deeply flawed teams. The Angels haven't won a postseason game in seven years, but in that time, they have remained

stubbornly oriented toward win-now moves, sacrificing draft picks, prospects, long-term financial flexibility and perhaps

even a GM along the way. The Angels are finally free of Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson's contracts, and it'll be tempting to

22

spend that money on, well, the next Jered Weaver or C.J. Wilson contract, especially because the Angels have no

prospects on the brink of contributing and no minor league talent to fund trades.

But wait! That projection chart up there has the Angels winning 84 or 85 games, which would make them strong

contenders and the perfect customers for one or two final pieces this winter, right? Maybe. That projection assumed

nearly 700 good innings from Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Meyer, who will be coming back

from (respectively) Tommy John surgery, a UCL rehab, a fractured skull and shoulder issues. There's a scenario in which

those four are healthy and good and the Angels are healthy and good, in which case a couple offseason moves to fill in a

couple of the dead spots in the lineup would make sense. Trading for Cameron Maybin, for instance? Makes sense.

However, any rosy projection for the Angels depends on all four of those pitchers. Add that no team is more at the mercy

of a single hamstring tug than the Angels, who would lose two wins of projection simply by Mike Trout slipping on a wet

patch of grass and missing six weeks. It arguably makes much more sense for the Angels to use the first half of the

season to evaluate where these unknowns take them and load up at the trade deadline if things go right. That they don't

have the prospects to actually load up at the trade deadline makes it all the more likely Moreno will want to see it done

now.

National League entrant: The Rockies. Last winter, the Rockies traded for a costly veteran closer, Jake McGee, who

was two years from free agency. Nobody wants to see their team -- even their bad team -- give wins away in the ninth, so

one can appreciate the effort, but it was a particularly win-now sort of trade for a team that was otherwise staying patient.

Colorado had an unexpectedly strong first half and went into the trade deadline at around the .500 mark, which had them

"looking at buying." They didn't buy, but neither did they sell, which suggests a franchise that sees itself on the cusp of

contention.

Whether the Rockies are depends on your definition of cusp. The Rockies look a bit like the Diamondbacks did coming

out of 2015: A bona fide superstar had a massive season, a couple late bloomers -- in the Rockies' case, Charlie

Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu -- had star-level career years, and some hints of young starting pitching developed at the

major league level. The Rockies have three positions who project to be replacement level and regression most likely

coming for those late bloomers. The Rockies are a better team this year than they were a year ago, but they were

probably a worse team last year than they looked three months ago.

23

After the deadline, they went 23-34. Not buying was the right move in July. The offseason is more open-ended, and any

team with a chance -- and the Rockies have a chance -- should be open to buying. This just isn't the year to commit.

Here's where the caveat goes: Either of these teams could do exactly what the Diamondbacks, Padres and White Sox

tried -- and succeed. If we go back just one year further, we can find near-unanimous consent that the Royals took

themselves too seriously too early and traded future star Wil Myers for a doomed bid. Then the Royals made the World

Series and won it the year after that. If we go back one year beyond that, we get the Blue Jays, who "won" the offseason

by volume yet finished in last the next year -- then won the division two years after that with some of the same core. The

counterargument to that is that Noah Syndergaard is a Met, not a Blue Jay, because of it. Team-building is complicated;

judging what constitutes success is complicated.

But what makes the Diamondbacks, Padres and White Sox such lasting examples isn't that they failed to win the season

after "winning" the offseason. It's that the cost was so great, as any offseason buyer can anticipate it will be. All three

teams are in relatively dire situations today because of those moves, because of the prospects and financial flexibility

given up. That's the price of skipping three spaces ahead. Sometimes it's worth it, but if a team is going to mortgage its

future, it'd better hope it's right about what the present is worth.

24

MLB Rumor Central: Rockies to have record payroll in 2017? ESPN.com – 12:10 PM MT If the Colorado Rockies aren't contenders next season, it appears it won't be for lack of trying.

Rumor CentralAsked if the club is looking to push for the playoffs next year, Rockies owner Dick Monfort told reporters,

including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the payroll "will be a record [in 2017]."

Sportrac.com calculated the Rockies' payroll at nearly $113 million in 2016. The majority of the team's players are due

back next season, with Carlos Gonzalez's contract calling for a $3 million jump to $20 million. Also of note, Nolan Arenado

and Charlie Blackmon are due for raises via arbitration, along with several others.

If the Rockies decide to spend on the free-agent market, pitching will most likely be the area they target. This year,

Colorado hung around .500 until early August but ultimately ended up at 75-87 -- the team's sixth consecutive losing

season.

-- Kyle Brasseur