Measuring the Effectiveness of Agricultural R&D in Sub-Saharan Africa from the Perspectives of...
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Arega Alene (IITA-Malawi); Yigezu Yigezu (ICARDA); Jupiter Ndjeunga (ICRISAT-Niger); Ricardo Labarta (CIP-Nairobi);
Robert Andrade (CIAT); Aliou Diagne (AfricaRice); Rachel Muthoni (CIAT-PABRA); Franklin Simtowe (ICRISAT-Nairobi);
Tom Walker (DIVA project coordinator)
◆Antecedent: The 1998 Initiative that resulted in Evenson & Gollin (2003) 20-25%◆
Describing the Bill & Melinda Gates’ DIVA Project and this paper by the
number 3 3 Years (2010-2012)
3 Broad institutional actors
• 7 CG Commodity Centers and Their Partners (IRRI & TRIVSA)• SPIA• Bioversity International
3 Objectives• 1. Performance criteria in NARS crop improvement programs for priority commodity by country combinations (104)• 2. Nationally representative surveys of diffusion of modern varieties (6 countries)• 3. Impact assessment (3 grants)
3 Databases in Objective 1 on performance indicators• Strength of human resources in NARS• Varietal output (release) • Varietal adoption (cultivar-specific for improved varieties)
3 Types of commodity coverage
• Continuing from 1998: Maize, cassava, groundnuts, sorghum, pearl millet, rice, beans, potato, wheat, barley, and lentil
• New: cowpea, sweetpotato, soybean, chickpea, and pigeonpea
• Bonus coverage: Yams (IITA), faba bean & field pea (ICARDA), and expanded coverage in cassava (IITA), rice (AfricaRice), and sorghum (INSTORMIL)
3 Levels of data availability & reliability by September 2011 for the continuing commodities for this paper
• Partially available but not reliable: Maize & wheat in East and Southern Africa
• Available & mostly reliable: Groundnuts, sorghum, and pearl millet in West Africa, rice, and beans
• Available & reliable: Cassava, maize in West & Central Africa, potato, barley, and lentil
Findings on Varietal Output from the 1998 data
Positive trend in the rate of release over time but release incidence peaked earlier for cassava, maize in West & Central Africa, and rice in the 1980s
Political instability in the 1990s adversely affected varietal output
Performance in the 1960s had a carry-over effect on releases in the 1970s but not later
Findings on Varietal Output from the 1998 data (cont.)
Release rate significantly higher in wheat & lower in cassava
Release profiles punctuated by bursts of
activity sandwiched between long periods of inactivity; Nigeria the main country exception
Emerging findings on varietal output in 2009/10
Rate of release increased for most crops from 1999 to 2009/10
Rate of release significantly lower in sorghum, groundnut, pearl millet, and lentils and higher in barley, cassava, and maize in WCA
Muted release estimate for rice unexpected
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Annual release rate from 1974 to 1998
Rice Cote d’Ivoire
Rice Sierra Leone
Maize Nigeria
Potato Ethiopia
Cassava Kenya
Beans RwandaCassava Nigeria
Findings on Varietal Adoption from the 1998 Data
CommodityImproved
Cultivars (%)Coverage (%)
Improved cultivars: lower bound
assumption (%)
Wheat 66 85 56
Potato 56 68 44
Rice 45 57 25
Maize WCA 37 94 35
Maize ESA 36 90 34
Cassava 22 83 18
Sorghum 23 54 13
Beansa 15 67 10
Barley 11 90 10
Groundnut 30 6 2
Pearl Millet 19 10 2
Lentils 0 80 0 a IARC only
Steady gains in most crops exceeding 1% per annum in penetration of Modern Varieties Cassava and the TMS cultivars e.g. 30572 Substantial gains by several countries in maize in West Africa Incremental, cumulative gains especially of varieties released in the 1990s
Emerging Findings on Varietal Adoption in 2009/10
Few cases of disadoption for MVS as a whole
Relatively low adoption of MVS in Ethiopia although recent gains are encouraging
Levels of MV adoption in coarse cereals & groundnuts in West Africa were lower than expected given low but stable levels of breeding investments over time
Emerging Findings on Varietal Adoption in 2009/10 (cont.)
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Adoption levels (%) in 1998
MaizeNigeria
CassavaNigeria
MaizeCameroon
MaizeSenegal
Potato Rwanda
Potato Uganda
MaizeGhana
Cassava Benin
Cassava MalawiBeans Malawi
Categorizing Levels of Modern Variety Adoption by Crop
High approaching full adoption in most countries of heavy production
• Spring bread wheat
• Potatoes
• Soybeans
• Emphasis on varietal turnover (mean weighted varietal age 10-20 years; no perceived change since the late 1990s)
Categorizing Levels of Modern Variety Adoption by Crop (cont.)
Maize
• High levels of variation in adoption levels across countries• Emphasis on varietal turnover in hybrids
Moderate; weighted average between 25-55%
• Rice, cassava, cowpea, pigeonpea, beans,andduram wheat
Low; weighted average less than 25%
• Groundnut, sorghum, pearl millet, lentils, faba bean, chickpea, and sweetpotato
Going from Monitoring of Varietal Output, Adoption, and Turnover to Improving
Crop Improvement
Center crop and synthesis reports early next year
Emphasis on cultivar-specific adoption and the reliability of estimates from expert panels
Challenge: Identification and consistent treatment of old ‘improved’ land race materials that were released in the country of origin
Going from Monitoring of Varietal Output, Adoption, and Turnover to Improving
Crop Improvement (cont.)
Identification of specific, relevant problems and questions
Public release of the Objective 1 datasets is scheduled for August, 2012
Investing in an aggregate rate of return study with an emphasis on productivity effects