Measuring Social Exclusion

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    RESEARCH PAPER 99/11 6 October 1999

    MEASURING SOCIAL EXCLUSION

    This research paper presents an initial scorecard of indicators of social exclusion in

    Scotland. The indicators, covering six dimensions of social exclusion, illustrate the

    current scale and distribution of exclusion. Indicators such as these could be used to

    inform measurement of progress in reducing social exclusion. The paper concludes

    with a consideration of the value of this and alternative means of tracking levels ofexclusion.

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    INFORMATION CENTRE RESEARCH PAPERS ARE COMPILED FOR THE BENEFIT OF

    MEMBERS OF THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT AND THEIR PERSONAL STAFF. AUTHORS ARE

    AVAILABLE TO DISCUSS THE CONTENTS OF THESE PAPERS WITH MEMBERS AND THEIR

    STAFF BUT CANNOT ADVISE THE PUBLIC.

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    SUMMARY

    The term social exclusion is a recent addition to popular debates about poverty

    and deprivation. The 500 references to social exclusion in the Scottish press in the

    past two years is ten times the number in the two preceding years1. Its emergence

    can be traced to the priorities adopted by the Labour Government and, in

    particular the establishment of the Scottish Social Inclusion Network and, in

    England, the Social Exclusion Unit. In establishing their terms of reference, both

    bodies referred to the Prime Ministers definition:

    social exclusion is a shorthand label for what can happen when

    individuals or areas suffer from a combination of linked problems

    such as unemployment, poor skills, low incomes, poor housing, high

    crime environments, bad health and family breakdown2.

    Both the UK Government and the Executive see measuring the scale of social

    exclusion and establishing indicators against which the promotion of social

    inclusion might be measured as a priority. Here, the Social Inclusion Network has

    established an Evaluation Framework Action Team to make recommendations on

    suitable Scottish indicators. The teams conclusions will be reported in the social

    inclusion plan due to be published later this year. At UK level the DSS has

    produced the first annual report on tackling social exclusion3, setting out a range of

    indicators for the UK and England. The need for measurement of social exclusion

    is also widely recognised outside of government.4

    This paper outlines a possible scorecard of indicators for Scotland to show,

    across a range of elements of social exclusion, recent trends in the scale and

    distribution of exclusion. A scorecard such as this might be a useful first step in

    tracking future trends in social exclusion. The scorecard approach is simplistic,

    however, and the paper concludes with a look at ways in which more

    sophisticated means of tracking social exclusion and evaluating action to promote

    social inclusion might be developed in future.

    1 FT Profile Info-Plus database, coverage: Scotsman, Herald, Scotland on Sunday

    2The Scottish Office Social Inclusion Opening the door to a better Scotland(para. 2.1); Social ExclusionUnit Purposes, work priorities and working methods

    3DSSOpportunity for all: Tackling poverty and social exclusion(Cm 4445)

    4

    See, for example, Scottish Council Foundation Strategies for Social Inclusion; Scottish PovertyInformation Unit Poverty data, anti-poverty strategy and Scottish devolution; New Policy InstituteMonitoring poverty and social exclusion

    http://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://www.scottishpolicynet.org.uk/scotpol/scf/publications/oth3_soc_incl/frameset.shtmlhttp://www.scottishpolicynet.org.uk/scotpol/scf/publications/oth3_soc_incl/frameset.shtmlhttp://spiu.gcal.ac.uk/povdata.htmlhttp://spiu.gcal.ac.uk/povdata.htmlhttp://www.jrf.org.uk/http://www.jrf.org.uk/http://spiu.gcal.ac.uk/povdata.htmlhttp://www.scottishpolicynet.org.uk/scotpol/scf/publications/oth3_soc_incl/frameset.shtmlhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htm
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    SELECTING INDICATORS ....................................................................................5Meaning................................................................................................................................................ 5

    Data Availibility..................................................................................................................................... 5

    Recognition .......................................................................................................................................... 6

    AN INITIAL SET OF INDICATORS........................................................................7

    Low Incomes ...................................................................................................................................... 8

    Indicator 1: Households Below Half Average Income....................................................................... 10

    Indicator 2: People Dependent On Income Support ......................................................................... 11

    Indicator 3: Children Entitled To Free School Meals......................................................................... 13

    Access To Employment.................................................................................................................. 14

    Indicator 4: People Of Working Age Not In Employment.................................................................. 16

    Indicator 5: Long-Term Unemployment............................................................................................. 19

    Indicator 6: Full-Time Employees On Low Pay................................................................................. 20

    Housing Quality And Availability................................................................................................... 21

    Indicator 7: Overcrowding.................................................................................................................. 23

    Indicator 8: Homelessness ................................................................................................................ 24

    Education.......................................................................................................................................... 25

    Indicator 9: Unauthorised Absence From School.............................................................................. 27

    Indicator 10: School Leavers Qualifications ..................................................................................... 28

    Indicator 11: Working Age People With No Qualifications................................................................ 30

    Health And Fertility.......................................................................................................................... 32

    Indicator 12: Underage Conceptions................................................................................................. 33

    Indicator 13: Low Birthweight Babies ................................................................................................ 34

    Indicator 14: Premature Deaths......................................................................................................... 36

    Citizenship And Community Participation ................................................................................... 38

    Indicator 15: Election Turnout............................................................................................................ 40

    Indicator 16: Fear Of Selected Crimes .............................................................................................. 41

    TOWARDS BETTER MEASUREMENT.............................................................. 43Improving the scorecard .................................................................................................................... 43

    Beyond the scorecard........................................................................................................................ 43

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    SELECTING INDICATORS

    There are many dimensions to social exclusion and, within each, many indicators

    which could be selected to illustrate the scale of exclusion. The selection of a

    manageable set of indicators from the many possibilities is then a matter of

    judgement. In this paper, seventeen indicators have been selected on the basis ofthree criteria the meaning of an indicator in terms of how well it relates to a

    particular aspect of exclusion; the availability of data to illustrate trends in

    Scotland; and the recognition of an indicator as an important gauge of social

    exclusion.

    MEANING

    It is obviously important that a set of indicators should reflect our understanding of

    the phenomenon of social exclusion. The definition offered by the Prime Minister

    (see p.3 above) outlines the key aspects, in the Governments view, of social

    exclusion. As well as covering each of these aspects a set of indicators should

    acknowledge the factors identified as common to all aspects of exclusion. These

    include:

    the interrelationship between different aspects of exclusion;

    the extent to which social exclusion is a dynamic process which affects future

    prospects as well as current circumstances;

    the relationship between social exclusion and active citizenship.5

    It is also important that a particular indicator can be clearly interpreted; a changein a particular indicator should unambiguously represent either a growth or a

    reduction in the level of exclusion.

    DATA AVAILIBILITY

    There is no point in establishing an indicator if sufficient data are not available to

    support it. Ideally, data would be capable of illustrating past trends, current

    patterns among different social groups and in different areas of Scotland and

    should be updated frequently.

    There are three main sources of data which might be used to support a set of

    indicators.

    The Census achieves (close to) 100% coverage of the Scottish population, but

    the fact that it is undertaken only each ten years means it cannot provide

    information to track trends.

    5For discussion of these and other debates around the definition of social exclusion see, for example, Lee& Murie Literature Review of Social ExclusionTSO Central Research Unit 1999; Tony Atkinsons chapter

    on Social Exclusion, Poverty and Unemployment in Atkinson, A.B. and Hills, J. (eds.) Exclusion,Employment and Opportunity (pp.13-14); and DSS Opportunity for all: Tackling poverty and socialexclusion(Cm 4445) (pp 24-26)

    http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/casepdfs/CasePapers/Paper4.PDFhttp://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/casepdfs/CasePapers/Paper4.PDFhttp://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/casepdfs/CasePapers/Paper4.PDFhttp://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/casepdfs/CasePapers/Paper4.PDFhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://www.dss.gov.uk/hq/pubs/poverty/index.htmhttp://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/casepdfs/CasePapers/Paper4.PDFhttp://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/casepdfs/CasePapers/Paper4.PDF
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    Administrative data from, for example, Benefits Agency records of benefit

    receipt or schools recording of absence and qualifications is more useful but

    is restricted to areas where members of the public have direct contact with

    public authorities.

    Data on areas such as incomes and living standards is available only from

    sample surveys. The existing UK Government surveys in these areas theFamily Expenditure Survey, Family Resources Surveyand General Household

    Survey have small sample sizes in Scotland (undermining the reliability of

    the data and prohibiting analysis of groups and areas within Scotland) and do

    not cover households north of the Caledonian Canal. The availability of survey

    data will improve over time with the development of the Scottish Household

    Survey.

    RECOGNITION

    The selection of indicators in this paper has also been informed by indicatorsrecommended and selected in three other reports. In general, indicators have onlybeen included where they, or a close equivalent, are recognised by one or more ofthese reports as an important marker of exclusion. The three reports are:

    The first annual report on poverty and social exclusion from the DSS,Opportunity for all: Tackling poverty and social exclusion. This report sets out39 indicators of success against which the Governments progress will bemeasured. Indicators are set for either the UK as a whole or for England,depending on the devolution of responsibility.

    The progress report from the Evaluation Framework Action Team, presented to

    the Social Inclusion Network in June this year. This proposes 50 indicators forScotland, not all of which can be measured using currently available data.

    From outside Government, a report produced in December 1998 by the NewPolicy Institute for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Monitoring poverty andsocial exclusion. This recommended 46 indicators, mainly for Great Britain orthe UK as a whole.

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    AN INITIAL SET OF INDICATORS

    Based on the criteria described above, the following sections present 16 indicatorswhich provide an initial scorecard of social exclusion in Scotland. The indicatorsare organised into 6 themes, covering low incomes; access to employment;housing quality & availability; education; health & fertility; and citizenship &community participation. An introduction to each theme explains its importance,outlines the reasons for selection of particular indicators and suggests furtherindicators which might be developed in future. The pages for each indicator show,as far as possible, the current scale of exclusion; recent trends; variationsbetween social groups; and variations between areas of Scotland. Comment isalso provided on the adequacy of the data underlying each indicator. Whereverpossible, an accompanying map illustrates the geographical distribution ofexclusion.

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    LOW INCOMES

    While social exclusion is more than simply lack of income, the two are closelyrelated.

    Low income is a key aspect of social exclusion. It is both a frequent consequence ofexclusion, most obviously from the labour market, and a cause of exclusion: simply put, a

    lack of money makes participation in society more difficult. Low incomes are closely

    associated with ill health and decreased life expectancy. Living in low-income households

    and areas can also actually increase costs for individuals: for example, insurance and credit

    are often more expensive for those on low incomes.6

    The first indicator selected to illustrate the scale of low incomes is the proportionof people in households with less than half average income. This is verymuch a measure of relative poverty (or income inequality) rather than absolutepoverty - a comparison with others incomes rather than with a defined

    subsistence income. It has beenwidely used by povertycommentators for many years,and recent statements byministers of both the ScottishExecutive7 and the UKGovernment8 have illustratedthe extent to which this is nowthe closest approximation to an official definition of poverty. It also mirrors the IrishGovernments use of 40%, 50% and 60% of average income as markers ofpoverty. It is recommended as an indicator by the New Policy Institute report and,implicitly, by the DSS report. The Evaluation Framework Action Teams progressreport, however, recommends an indicator based on proportions of medianincome9, which would fit with the figures produced by Eurostat for EU countries. 10

    The second indicator is the proportion of people living on Income Support orincome-related Jobseekers Allowance11. This offers an alternative, lower,threshold of low income basedon the statutory definition of theminimum amount a familyneeds to live on. It is included

    here mainly because the currentavailability of Scottish data isgreater than for other indicatorsof income.

    6The Scottish OfficeSocial Inclusion: opening the door to a better Scotland para. 2.8

    7See, for example, The Scottish Office News Release 1365/99 Poverty taken to task by new ministerialteam29 June 1999

    8See, for example, HC Deb 14 April 1999 c244-5w

    9Given the distribution of incomes (which is distorted by the presence of a small number of very highearners) median income is lower than average (mean) income.

    10More detail on the half average income measure is available in Scottish Parliament Information Centre

    Research Note 99-07 Poverty in Scotland11Income-related Jobseekers Allowance replaced Income Support for unemployed people from October1996.

    The value of half average income (in April 1999 prices)

    Single person: 74 per week

    Lone parent with one child (aged 2-4): 98 per week

    Couple with two children (aged 2-4): 182 per week

    Couple with no children: 132 per week

    Income Support thresholds (at 1999/00 rates)

    Single person: 51 per week

    Lone parent with one child (aged under 11): 87 per week

    Couple with two children (aged under 11): 135 per weekCouple with no children: 81 per week

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library/documents-w7/sima-00.htmhttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/library/documents-w7/sima-00.htmhttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/library/documents-w7/sima-00.htmhttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/library/documents-w7/sima-00.htmhttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/library/documents-w7/sima-00.htm
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    The third indicator is the proportion of children eligible for free school meals.Eligibility is based on receipt of Income Support or income-related JobseekersAllowance so this is indicator simply focuses the second indicator on children. It isrecommended as an indicator in the Evaluation Framework Action Teamsprogress report.

    Possible Future IndicatorsThe most important addition would be a longitudinal indicator which tracks income

    dynamics and captures the persistence of low income. It is long periods of low

    income which have most impact on life chances and on future prospects of

    escaping poverty. The planned increase in Scottish coverage of the British

    Household Panel Survey will enable analysis in this area from around 2001.

    It may also be useful to develop an indicator based on self-reported difficulty in

    managing financially. First results from the Scottish Household Survey suggest

    that some 9% of the population report financial difficulties, a rate which is highest

    among low income households and households headed by a young person. As

    the survey develops it will be possible to produce a detailed indicator in this area.

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    INDICATOR 1: HOUSEHOLDS BELOW HALF AVERAGE INCOME

    There are around 1.2 million people in Scotland living in households with less thanhalf the average income for Great Britain, some 25% of the population. Most atrisk are the young and the old; 34% of children and 29% of pensioners live in suchhouseholds.12

    Variation between social groups

    Figures for Great Britain as a whole show the extent to which the risk of lowincome varies between different types of family.

    Figure 1

    Source: DSS Households below average income 1979- 1996/97

    Variation geographically

    Figures showing distribution within Scotland are not available.

    Indicator QualityWhile the data for this indicator come from an established official source, figuresfor Scotland are not routinely published. There are also problems ofrepresentativeness (the survey underlying the data does not cover Scottish islands orareas north of the Caledonian Canal) and sample size (the Scottish sample is notlarge enough to enable analysis of low incomes by social group). Development ofthe Scottish Household Survey should ease each of these problems, and will alsoenable incomes to be expressed as a proportion of the Scottish (rather than theBritish) average.

    12The Scottish Office Social Inclusion: opening the door to a better Scotlandpara. 2.9

    Population below selected proportions of average income, GB

    1996-97

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%80%

    Pensioner

    Couple

    Single

    Pensioner

    Couple with

    Children

    Couple

    without

    Children

    Single with

    Children

    Single

    Without

    Children

    %o

    fgroup

    below 40%

    below 50%

    below 60%

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    INDICATOR 2: PEOPLE DEPENDENT ON INCOME SUPPORT

    There are around 800,000 people in Scotland living in families receiving IncomeSupport (IS) or income-related Jobseekers Allowance (JSA), equivalent to 16% ofthe population. Overall numbers have been falling, although the number of casesrelated to disability continues to grow.

    Table 1

    Beneficiaries(a)

    of Income Support/income-related Jobseeker's Allowance

    Scotland, May 1995 to May 1999, by type of claimant

    '000s

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

    Pensioners 202 201 198 193 189

    Disabled 143 154 164 170 175

    Lone Parents 262 261 259 246 241

    Unemployed 224 202 174 150 147

    Other 45 52 54 54 48Total: '000s 876 870 849 813 800

    Total: % of population 17.1% 17.0% 16.6% 15.9% 15.6%

    a) Claimants, plus their partners and dependants

    Source: DSS Analytical Services Division, personal communication

    Estimates from the Scottish Poverty Information Unit suggest that people who donot take up their entitlement to IS may add at least 150,000 to the total number ofpeople in families with incomes at or below IS levels13.

    Variation between social groups

    An analysis of Scottish House Condition Survey data commissioned by The ScottishOffice illustrates the extent to which entitlement to IS varies between householdtypes. Overall, the report found that 25% of Scottish households were entitled;groups with entitlement rates of 40% or above are shown below.

    Figure 2

    Source: Glen Bramley et al. Analysis of Scottish House Condition Survey for development of GAE poverty indicators (1998)

    13SPIU Poverty in Scotland 1999(table 2.19)

    Entitlement to Income Support by selected characteristics of

    household head: Scotland, 1996

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    %o

    fgroup

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    Variation geographically

    Figures for local authority areas are available on request. Indicator 3 gives anindication of patterns of receipt for families with children.

    Indicator QualityIncome Support data are reliable and are released frequently and relatively soonafter the date to which they refer. The main problem is with take-up of benefits.Official data can only capture the numbers who claim their entitlement to IS. Iftake-up rates (through, for example local or national benefit awareness

    campaigns) increase the numbers on Income Support could increase without anyincrease in underlying income levels.

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    INDICATOR 3: CHILDREN ENTITLED TO FREE SCHOOL MEALS

    Around 150,000 children are registered as entitled to free school meals. Thepercentage of children eligible fell slightly to 21% last year.

    Table 2

    Registered Entitlement to Free School MealsEducation Authority schools

    % of pupils

    1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99

    Primary 24% 24% 24% 24% 22%

    Secondary 16% 17% 17% 18% 17%

    Special 64% 68% 69% 66% 59%

    All education authority schools 21% 21% 21% 22% 21%

    Source: TSO School meals in education authority schools 1998-99

    Variation between social groups

    Figures are not available.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for local authority areas. The highest and lowest rates areshown in table 3. See also the accompanying map: Indicator 3.

    Indicator QualityData are reliable and are released frequently and relatively soon after the date to

    which they refer. Again the main problem is with take-up of benefits; eligibility isonly registered when a parent/guardian is claiming Income Support.

    Table 3

    Registered Entitlement to Free School Meals

    Education Authority schools

    % of pupils

    1998-99

    Glasgow City 44%

    Renfrewshire 34%

    West Dunbartonshire 31%

    Scotland 21%

    Scottish Borders 8%

    Shetland Islands 7%

    Aberdeenshire 6%

    Source: TSO School meals in education authority schools 1998-99

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    ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT

    Economic prosperity and social justice depend on people of working age being

    able to realise their potential in the labour market14 Access to paid work is the key

    factor in determining satisfactory incomes for people of working age. It is also

    seen as a means of ensuring participation in society, while lack of work can haveadverse effects on mental and physical health. The UK Government has made

    work central to its approach to social exclusion, through new schemes to bring

    lone parents, people with disabilities and widows into the labour market and new

    deals to improve the job prospects of various groups once in the labour market.

    The first indicator selected here is the proportion of people of working age notin employment. This indicator is included in the DSS report and recommendedby both the Evaluation Framework Action Team and the New Policy Institute.People not in employment include the ILO unemployed (those who both wantwork and are actively seeking it) and the economically inactive, who can bedivided into those who want work (but are not currently seeking it) and those whodo not15. People who do not want paid work will include people with caringresponsibilities, people with disabilities and people who have retired. It may bemore appropriate to focus, as the New Policy Institute do, on those who want towork.

    The second indicator is the proportion of unemployed people who have beenunemployed for two years or more. This indicator, recommended by theEvaluation Framework Action Team, recognises the fact that long spells ofunemployment have a significant bearing on living standards and tend to diminish

    the likelihood of finding work. Professor David Donnison has argued that long-term unemployment is more fatal than a poor diet or a damp house.16

    The third indicator, the proportion of full-time employees on low rates of pay,is included as a measure of the quality of work. Low pay is taken to be hourlywages below the trade unions minimum wage target of half median maleearnings (4.79 per hour in 1998). The focus is on full-time employees herebecause of the uncertainty of estimates for part-time workers.

    Possible Future IndicatorsA key development here would be to consider employment at the household level,

    rather than solely at the individual level. In particular the proportion of workingage households where there is no-one in employment will be a key indicator

    in the future. The Office for National Statistics estimate that in 1998 there were

    350,000 working age households in Scotland with no-one in employment, 21% of

    all working age households. Further analysis will be possible once the Labour

    Force Survey household datasets are publicly available.

    14DSS Opportunity for all: Tackling poverty and social exclusion(Cm 4445) p.77

    15

    Unless stated otherwise, figures on this indicator exclude full-time students.16Cited in McCormick & Leicester Three Nations: Social exclusion in Scotland Scottish Council Foundation1998

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    INDICATOR 4: PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT

    There are around 700,000 people of working age not in employment, 25% of thepopulation. Of these, 170,000 are ILO unemployed, 190,000 are inactive andwould like work, and 350,000 are inactive and would not like work.

    Figure 3

    Source: ONS Labour Force Surveyvia SPSS

    Variation between social groups

    Figure 4

    Source: ONS Labour Force Surveyvia SPSS

    Working age people not in employment

    7% 7% 7% 6% 6%

    6%7% 7%

    7% 7%

    13%14%

    13%12%

    12%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    Spring 1995 Spring 1996 Spring 1997 Spring 1998 Spring 1999

    %o

    fworkingagepopulation

    Inactive (do not w ant work)

    Inactive (w ant to work)

    ILO Unemployed

    Working age people not in employment (selected categories),

    Spring 1999

    11%5% 5% 8%

    20%

    21%

    10%

    14%

    21%41%

    23 %

    30 %

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    Lone Parents People with a

    disability

    M en aged 50-64 People with no

    qualifications

    %o

    fgroup Inactive (do not want work)

    Inactive (want to w ork)

    ILO Unemployed

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    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for local authority areas17. The highest and lowest rates areshown in table 3. See also the accompanying map: Indicator 4.

    Indicator QualityData are reliable and will be improved slightly by development of the ScottishHousehold Survey. Care should be taken in understanding the different reasonswhy people are not in employment; paid work would not necessarily be beneficialto groups such as early retirees with occupational pension provision and parentswho want to look after their young children.

    17In contrast to the figures given above, full-time students are included here.

    Table 4Population not in employment

    By local authority

    % of working age population

    1997

    Glasgow City 42%

    East Ayrshire 38%

    Clackmannanshire 35%

    Scotland 29%

    West Lothian 20%

    East Renfrewshire 18%

    Shetland Islands 16%

    Source: ONS Labour Force Survey via SPSS

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    INDICATOR 5: LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT

    Around 36,000 people have been ILO unemployed for two years or more, 20% ofall unemployed people.

    Table 5

    People unemployed for two years or moreScotland, 1995 to 1999

    Spring 95 Spring 96 Spring 97 Spring 98 Spring 99

    Number 53,000 47,000 48,000 34,000 36,000

    % of total unemployed 26% 22% 22% 19% 20%

    Source: ONS Labour Force Surveyvia SPSS

    Variation between social groups

    Figures are not available.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are not available.

    Indicator QualityData are reliable and are available quarterly soon after the date to which theyrefer. It should be possible to provide more detailed analyses as the Scottish

    Household Survey develops.

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    INDICATOR 6: FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES ON LOW PAY

    Just under 200,000 full-time employees are on hourly pay rates below the nationalminimum wage target.

    Table 6

    Full-time employees on low rates of payScotland, 1996 to 1998

    1996 1997 1998

    Number 175,000 170,000 190,000

    % of FT employees 12.5% 12.1% 12.4%

    Source: Scottish Low Pay Unit

    Variation between social groups

    Women are far more likely than men to be on low pay. 23% of female full-time

    employees earned less than 4.79 per hour in 1998 compared with 7% of men.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for most local authority areas (those where the sample sizein the New Earnings Survey is sufficiently large). They are summarised in theaccompanying map, Indicator 6. These show that low pay is more prevalent inrural Scotland, with more than 15% of full-time employees affected in Argyll &Bute, Borders, East Lothian, Highland, Moray and Perth & Kinross.

    Indicator QualityData are available annually, but small sample sizes in Scotland limit their reliability

    and prohibit analysis of all areas of Scotland. This indicator will be improvedthrough use of Scottish Household Survey data.

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    HOUSING QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY

    Poor housing is one outcome of social exclusion. It can also contribute to furtherexclusion through impacts on health, child development and family relationships.

    The first indicator here is the proportion of households living in overcrowdedaccommodation. Overcrowding is defined as households which do not havesufficient bedrooms to meet the bedroom standard developed for the 1996Scottish House Condition Survey (the standard is based on the number of peoplein a household, their ages and their relationships with each other). Similarindicators were recommended by both the Evaluation Framework Action Teamand the New Policy Institute.

    The second indicator is the level of households assessed as homeless orpotentially homeless by local authorities under the homeless legislation.

    This indicator was recommended by both the Evaluation Framework Action Teamand the New Policy Institute. The DSS report contains an indicator based on amore extreme form of homelessness rough sleeping. Lack of data precludes theuse of a similar indicator in Scotland.

    Possible Future IndicatorsOther indicators could be drawn from the Scottish House Condition Survey,

    including dampness, lack of central heating and disrepair. The main problem with

    data from this source is that the survey is undertaken only every five years. A fuel

    poverty indicator might be more viable, and will be available through the ScottishHousehold Survey.

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    INDICATOR 7: OVERCROWDING

    First results from the Scottish Household Survey suggest that around 110,000households fall below the bedroom standard, 5% of all households.18 They showa slight improvement from the position in 1996 when around 6% of households fellbelow the standard.19

    Variation between social groups

    Figures not yet available from the Scottish Household Survey. Figures for 1996suggest, however, that overcrowding was highest in the furnished private rentedsector (19% of households below bedroom standard), and among lone parent(13%) and large family (21%) households.20

    Variation geographically

    Figures are not yet available.

    Indicator QualityThis is a reliable indicator. The Scottish Household Survey will allow morefrequent analyses and analysis of geographical patterns.

    18 Scottish Household Survey Bulletin 1

    19Scottish Homes Scottish House Condition Survey 1996

    20ibid.

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    INDICATOR 8: HOMELESSNESS

    Around 30,000 households per year are assessed as homeless or potentiallyhomeless. Applications rose to their highest level of the 1990s last year.

    Table 7

    Households assessed as homeless or potentially homeless by local authoritiesScotland, 1993-94 to 1997-98

    1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98

    Number 30,900 31,600 30,300 30,600 32,400

    Rate per 1,000 households 14.8 15.0 14.3 14.3 15.1

    Source: SE Housing statistical bulletin HSG/1999/3

    Variation between social groups

    Not available.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for local authorities. Highest and lowest rates are shown intable 8. See also accompanying map: Indicator 8.

    There is also a significant rural dimension to the reasons for homelessness.

    Across Scotland, action by landlords is recorded as the reason for homelessnessby just 7% of applicants. Rates can be far higher in rural areas, including Moray(27%), Orkney (20%), Perth & Kinross (19%) and Eilean Siar (18%)21.

    Indicator QualityThis is a reliable indicator. The main issue is interpretation. Differences over timeand between authorities may reflect differences in both the propensity ofcontacting local authorities and local authority recording practice as well asdifferences in the underlying extent of homelessness.

    21SE Housing statistical bulletin HSG/1999/3

    Table 8

    Homelessness rates, by local authority

    Scotland, 1997-98

    Rate per 1,000 households

    Glasgow City 39

    Stirling 23

    Edinburgh 19

    Scotland 15

    Moray 6

    Renfrewshire 5

    East Renfrewshire 4

    Source: SE Housing statistical bulletin HSG/1999/3

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    EDUCATION

    The Government believes that the best way to achieve a significant, long-term difference to

    the incidence of social exclusion is to focus on today's children and young people. The aim is

    to ensure that everyyoung person in Scotland, as they leave full-time education or training,

    should possess all the basic 'life skills' _ literacy, numeracy, communication and social skills;

    should have had the chance to develop more advanced knowledge and skills in school orcollege; should be confident and healthy; should value themselves and those around them;

    and should see themselves as being part of society, and having something to offer society in

    return.22

    Education is clearly central to this focus on children, both in the attainment of

    qualifications and in the development of social skills.

    The first indicator here is rates of unauthorised absence from secondary

    school. Unauthorised absence includes absence due to temporary exclusion,

    truancy and family holidays where attendance is otherwise unsatisfactory.

    Children with high rates of unauthorised absence are believed to be most likely to

    leave school early23. A similar indicator was included in the DSS report and

    recommended by the Evaluation Framework Action Team.

    The second indicator is the proportion of school leavers without at least oneStandard Grade at levels 1-3. The New Policy Institute recommended a similarindicator. The Evaluation Framework Action Team, however, focussed on schoolleavers achievements in English and mathematics. The selection here of levels 1-3 reflects the availability of data.

    Of course, education is not just about children or just about academicqualifications. The third indicator, the proportion of working age adults with noqualifications, admits achievement through lifelong learning as well as throughschool and through vocational as well as academic qualifications. This indicator isincluded in the DSS report.

    Possible Future IndicatorsA variety of other indicators could be drawn from data on qualifications. It may

    also be possible to develop indicators covering school leavers destinations and

    specific aspects of lifelong learning.

    22The Scottish Office Social inclusion opening the door to a better Scotlandpara. 6.1

    23McCormick & Leicester Three Nations: Social exclusion in Scotland Scottish Council Foundation 1998

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    INDICATOR 9: UNAUTHORISED ABSENCE FROM SCHOOL

    Across Scotland, average unauthorised absence was five half days per pupil in1997-98. This level has changed very little over the past three years. Levels ofunauthorised absence from primary school are negligible.24

    Variation between social groups

    Absence rises with age, peaking in years S3 and S4.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for local authorities. Highest and lowest rates are shown intable 9. See also accompanying map: Indicator 9.

    Indicator QualityFigures may be affected by variations in interpretation of national guidance onrecording absence, in particular in distinguishing between authorised andunauthorised absence.

    24TSO Attendance and absence in Scottish Schools 1995/96 to 1997/98

    Table 9

    Unauthorised absence

    Education authority schools in Scotland, 1997-98

    half days per pupil

    Clackmannanshire 15

    Stirling 14

    Falkirk 10

    Scotland 5

    Orkney 1

    Eilean Siar 1

    Shetland 0

    Source: TSO Attendance and absence in Scottish schools

    1995/96 to 1997/98

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    INDICATOR 10: SCHOOL LEAVERS QUALIFICATIONS

    11,500 pupils left school with no Standard Grades at level 1-3 in 1997-98, 19% ofall leavers. Rates have declined steadily in recent years.

    Table 10

    School leavers with no Standard Grades at levels 1-3Publicly-funded schools in Scotland, 1993-94 to 1997-98

    1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98

    Number 13,463 13,116 13,000 12,771 11,538

    % of leavers 22.5% 21.3% 20.6% 19.3% 18.7%

    Source: SE Education statistical bulletin Edn/E2/1999/4

    Variation between social groups

    Boys are far more likely to leave school with few qualifications. In 1997-98, 21%left with no Standard Grades at 1-3, compared with 15% of girls.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for local authorities. Highest and lowest rates are shown intable 11. See also accompanying map: Indicator 10.

    Indicator QualityThis is a reliable annual indicator.

    Table 11

    School leavers with no Standard Grades at levels 1-3

    Publicly-funded schools in Scotland, 1997-98

    % of leavers

    Glasgow City 32.1%

    Dundee City 29.5%

    Falkirk 23.6%

    Scotland 18.7%

    East Dunbartonshire 10.4%

    Aberdeenshire 9.9%

    East Renfrewshire 8.6%

    Source: SE Education statistical bulletin Edn/E2/1999/4

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    INDICATOR 11: WORKING AGE PEOPLE WITH NO QUALIFICATIONS

    Around 500,000 people of working age have no qualifications at all, some 17% ofthe working age population.

    Table 12

    Working age people with no qualificationsScotland, spring 1997 to spring 1999

    1997 1998 1999

    Number 549,000 538,000 530,000

    % of population 17.5% 17.1% 16.9%

    Source: ONS Labour Force Surveyvia SPSS

    Variation between social groups

    Figure 5

    Source: ONS Labour Force Surveyvia SPSS

    Variation geographically

    Figures are not available.

    Indicator QualityThis is a reliable quarterly indicator. The proportion with no qualifications tends to

    fall each year because cohorts leaving school today are far more likely to bequalified than those retiring.

    Working age adults with no qualifications by selected

    characteristics: Scotland, spring 1999

    0%

    5%10%

    15%20%

    25%30%

    35%40%

    45%

    %o

    fgroup

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    HEALTH AND FERTILITY

    The first indicator is the rate of conceptions for girls aged under 16. Teenageparents tend to have worse ante-natal health, lower birthweight babies and higherinfant mortality rates. Their own health and their childrens is worse than average.Teenage parents tend to remain poor and are disproportionately likely to sufferrelationship breakdown. Their daughters are more likely to become teenagemothers themselves. Teenage mothers usually disadvantaged backgroundscontribute to these effects. But having a young baby makes it worse.25The DSSreport includes an indicator relating to young women under 18, both the NewPolicy Institute and the Evaluation Framework Action Team recommend a focuson births. The decisions between under-18s and under-16s and betweenconceptions and births are a matter of judgement.

    The second indicator is the proportion of births of low (below 2500 grams)

    birthweight. Low birthweight is associated with both immediate and long-termhealth risks.26 Both the New Policy institute and the Evaluation Framework ActionTeam recommend this indicator.

    The third indicator is the rate of deaths among people aged under 65. As amarker of premature death, this indicator reflects the most extreme form of socialexclusion. The New Policy Institute recommended it as an indicator.

    Possible Future IndicatorsMany other indicators could be drawn from existing data or from the Scottish

    Household Survey. These might include measures of mortality from specific

    causes, such as suicide, heart disease or cancers and a measure of the

    prevalence of limiting long-term illness.

    25Social Exclusion Unit Teenage Pregnancy(Cm 4342) p.23 June 1999

    26New Policy Institute Monitoring poverty and social exclusionp.44

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    INDICATOR 12: UNDERAGE CONCEPTIONS

    Latest figures show 782 conceptions to girls aged under 16 in 1998, a decline onfigures in recent years. Typically, around 50% of conceptions in this age group areterminated through abortion.

    Table 13

    Conceptions in girls aged under 16Scotland, 1994 to 1998

    1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

    Number 801 828 903 855 782

    Rate per 1,000 girls aged 13-15 8.4 8.6 9.5 9.2 8.4

    Source: ISD Scotland Health Briefing Teenage Pregnancy in Scotland 1989-1998

    Variation between social groups

    Figures are not available.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for health board areas. Highest and lowest rates are shownin table 14. See also accompanying map: Indicator 12.

    Figures for local authority areas have recently been released for the first time.These suggest the Dundee City has the highest incidence in the country, withrates in excess of 15 per 1,000 in each of the past three years.27 Comparisons atthis level should, however, be interpreted with caution.

    Indicator QualityThis is a reliable annual indicator. Figures for individual boards should beinterpreted with caution as they can be based on a small number of cases.

    27ISD Scotland Scottish Local Authorities Compendium of Health Statistics

    Table 14

    Conceptions in girls aged under 16

    Scotland, by health board

    Averages for three years 1995-96 to 1997-98

    Number

    Rate per

    1,000 girls

    aged 13-15

    Tayside 85 11.8

    Fife 68 10.2

    Ayrshire & Arran 74 10.1

    Scotland 835 8.9

    Source: ISD Scotland SKIPPER

    Figures for each of the island health boards are too

    small to be released

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    INDICATOR 13: LOW BIRTHWEIGHT BABIES

    There are around 4,000 babies born each year with birthweight below 2500grams.

    Table 15Live births below 2500 gramsScotland, 1993 to 1997

    1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

    Number 3,993 4,062 3,671 3,858 4,014

    % of all live births 6.4% 6.7% 6.2% 6.8% 6.9%

    Source: ISD Scotland SKIPPER

    Variation between social groups

    The risk of low birthweight is highest among mothers under 15 (11% of babiesunder 2500 grams) and mothers over 40 (12%). Low birthweight is almost twiceas common in Scotlands most deprived areas as in the most affluent areas (7%compared with 4%).28

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for health board areas. Highest and lowest rates are shownin table 16. See also accompanying map: Indicator 13.

    Indicator QualityThis is a reliable annual indicator. Figures for individual boards should beinterpreted with caution as they can be based on a small number of cases.

    28SE 1998 Health in Scotlandp.51

    Table 16

    Live births below 2500 grams

    Scotland, by health board area, 1997

    Number

    % of live

    births

    Greater Glasgow 1,051 7.9%

    Lothian 651 7.4%

    Lanarkshire 336 7.3%

    Scotland 4,014 6.9%

    Source: ISD Scotland SKIPPER

    Figures for each of the island health boards are too

    small to be released

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    INDICATOR 14: PREMATURE DEATHS

    Around 12,000 people die before the age of 65 each year. Numbers and rateshave fallen slightly in the last two years.

    Table 17

    Deaths of people aged under 65Scotland, 1994 to 1998

    1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

    Number 12,610 12,525 12,673 12,187 12,156

    Crude rate per 100,000 population 289.3 287.3 291.4 280.8 280.4

    Source: General Register Office (Scotland)

    Variation between social groups

    The association between social class and premature death is well-documented in

    data for England and Wales29

    . In Scotland, the focus has been on association witharea-based measures of deprivation. Here, mortality levels for major causes ofdeath are highest in the most deprived areas of Scotland30.

    Variation geographically

    Figures on premature death have been calculated for parliamentaryconstituencies. These are in the form of standardised mortality ratios (SMRs).SMRs compare the number of deaths in an area with the number which wouldhave occurred had national (in this case, British) death rates in each age and sexgroup applied. An SMR in excess of 100 indicates death rates above the national

    norm. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 18. See also accompanyingmap: Indicator 14.

    Indicator QualityThis is a reliable annual indicator. It could be focussed on particular causes ofdeath or particular age groups.

    29See, most recently, the report of The Independent Inquiry into Inequalities in Health(the Acheson Report)

    30ISD ScotlandDeprivation and health in Scotland

    Table 18

    SMRs for under-65s

    Scotland, by constituency, 1991-95

    SMR (GB = 100)

    Glasgow Shettleston 234

    Glasgow Springburn 217

    Glasgow Maryhill 196

    Scotland not available

    Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale 90

    Eastwood 86

    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine 81

    Source: Analysis of registrations data by Daniel Dorling, University of

    Bristol

    http://www.official-documents.co.uk/document/doh/ih/part1b.htmhttp://www.official-documents.co.uk/document/doh/ih/part1b.htmhttp://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/publications/isd/deprivation_and_health/index.htmhttp://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/publications/isd/deprivation_and_health/index.htmhttp://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/publications/isd/deprivation_and_health/index.htmhttp://www.official-documents.co.uk/document/doh/ih/part1b.htm
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    CITIZENSHIP AND COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION

    As well as seeking to reduce the harmful effects of social exclusion, the Social

    Inclusion Strategy outlines aims relating to the promotion of participation in

    society. It identifies a need to promote a culture of active citizenship, in which

    self-development, participation in community and civic life and caring for ourdisadvantaged neighbours are key features31.

    The first indicator here considers turnout at elections as a measure ofcitizenship. Both the Evaluation Framework Action team and the New PolicyInstitute recommended this indicator.

    The second indicator looks at one of the key barriers to community involvement,and shows the proportion of people who are worried about becoming thevictim of selected crimes. The Evaluation Framework Action teamrecommended this indicator. Anxiety about crime can be an important source of

    general discontent with the local area and a specific barrier to involvement incommunity activities.

    Possible Future IndicatorsA variety of other indicators could be drawn from data from the Scottish

    Household Survey. These might include measures of the extent of voluntary

    activity or caring for others in the community.

    31 Social inclusion Opening the door to a better Scotland(para 3.3)

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    INDICATOR 15: ELECTION TURNOUT

    Across Scotland, turnout for the elections to the Scottish Parliament was 59%,with 2.3 million of the electorate voting and 1.6 million not. While not directlycomparable, turnout was higher at previous general elections above 70% in

    each since 1974.

    Variation between social groups

    Figures are not available.

    Variation geographically

    Figures are available for constituencies. Highest and lowest rates are shown intable 19. See also accompanying map: Indicator 15.

    Indicator QualityData are reliable, but might usefully be supplemented with the more regular dataavailable on local elections. It should be borne in mind that the calculation ofturnout excludes people who are not on the electoral roll (and who may be the

    most excluded of all groups) and that variations between constituencies mayreflect voters perceptions about the certainty of the result in their constituency.

    Table 19Turnout at Elections to the Scottish Parliament

    Scotland, by constituency

    % turnout

    Glasgow Shettleston 41%

    Glasgow Maryhill 41%

    Glasgow Springburn 44%

    Scotland 59%

    Eastwood 67%

    Edinburgh West 67%

    Stirling 67%

    Source: Scottish Parliament Information Centre election database

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    INDICATOR 16: FEAR OF SELECTED CRIMES

    Of respondents surveyed by the 1996 Scottish Crime Survey around 15% saidthey were very worried about becoming a victim of mugging or robbing andaround 16% said they were very worried about becoming a victim of assault orattack. Anxiety about these crimes was around twice as high among women as

    among men and generally highest among younger adults. The extent of anxietywas slightly lower than revealed by the 1993 survey, except among younger men.

    Figure 6

    Source: TSO Central Research Unit Main findings from the 1996 Scottish Crime Survey

    Variation between social groups

    People in socio-economic group E (those in households without a wage earner)are around four times more likely to express anxiety than those in socio-economicgroup A (professionals).

    Variation geographically

    Anxiety increases with settlement size.

    Indicator QualityThe data are based on a relatively small sample of 5,000 households and may besubject to a large degree of sampling error. The fact that the Scottish CrimeSurvey is periodic (each three years so far) means that updates for this indicatorwill not be available frequently.

    People who are 'very worried' about becoming the victim of selected

    crimes: Scotland, 1996

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    M en: Being

    mugged or

    robbed

    M en: Being

    assaulted or

    attacked

    Women: Being

    mugged or

    robbed

    Women: Being

    assaulted or

    attacked

    16-24

    25-44

    45-64

    65 and over

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    TOWARDS BETTER MEASUREMENT

    The type of scorecard approach exemplified above is a useful first step atmeasuring the scale of social exclusion and at providing a basis for futuremonitoring. Its advantages include the facts that it can be produced from readily-available material at little additional cost and that it provides a quick, easily-digestible exposition of the level and distribution of exclusion. It has manydisadvantages too; crucially while it can illustrate changes in the level of exclusionand it does not offer any insight into the reasons behind those changes. It isimportant to recognise that for the purposes of evaluating policies to combat socialexclusion it should be supplemented by techniques which measure moresensitively the effects of government policies (and the effects of lack ofgovernment policies) and their impact on people in, or at risk of, exclusion.

    There are essentially two types of improvement which could be made to thescorecard approach. The first set focuses on improving the indicators which make

    up the scorecard, the second go further and would introduce alternative,supplementary means of monitoring.32

    IMPROVING THE SCORECARD

    Beyond the issues of data availibility raised throughout this paper, improvementscould be made to the type of indicator selected. First, indicators might bedeveloped which tracked the impacts of particular policies of the Executive or ofthe UK Government. Examples would include tracking the progress of New Dealparticipants or considering the contribution made by Social Inclusion Partnerships.A second further set of indicators could draw upon the longitudinal data which willbe provided by the enhanced Scottish sample within the British Household PanelSurvey. Longitudinal analysis (tracking the same group of people from one year tothe next) would enable indicators to be developed in areas such as thepersistence of low income. A third set of new indicators might take a bottom-upapproach and consider indicators based on aspects which are important to groupsat risks of social exclusion. This would allow the development of new indicatorswhich better express the perceptions and aspirations of real people, and wouldalso reflect the Social Inclusion Strategys principles of inclusiveness andempowerment.

    BEYOND THE SCORECARD

    Thinking further ahead, there are other ways in which longitudinal research couldcontribute to an examination of how and why social exclusion occurs and whatpolicies help to ameliorate it.

    The 1,500 Scottish households to be included in the British Household PanelSurvey will provide a limited basis on which to examine changes in thecircumstances of individuals and households and to analyse the impacts of thosechanges (such as family formation and dissolution, entering or leaving work) on

    32 The remainder of this section draws heavily on the conclusion of the Evaluation Framework Action Teams

    progress report to the Social Inclusion Network.

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    their exposure to aspects of social exclusion. The first results from this sampleshould be available late next year. The sample is not, however, large enough toenable analysis of specific groups within the population.

    A further possibility would be to identify and track groups of people who are eitherat risk of exclusion (for example, lone parents, people with disabilities, people with

    no or few qualifications) or who are excluded (on the basis, perhaps, of scoringon several of the indicators incorporated in a scorecard) on the basis of ScottishHousehold Survey data. Over the long term analysis of groups such as these overtime might offer valuable insights into routes into and out of exclusion and start toprovide answers to the questions of why people become excluded and whatgovernment might do to promote inclusion. There are at present no plans todevelop such a survey.

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    Information Centre Research Papersare compiled for the benefit of Members of the Scottish

    Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers

    with Members and their staff but cannot advise the public.

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