Measuring Migrant Stock in the Russian Federation (and selected CIS countries)

Olga ChudinovskikhMoscow State Lomonosov University

Overview

UN approach to migrant stock estimation in the CIS countries: do the UN definitions always guarantee a correct result?

Evolution in tradition of migrants’ identification in RF and USSR

What data valid for migrants stock estimation do the national censuses (Round 2000) in the CIS countries present?

Data sources (related to migrants stock) in the Russian Federation

Conclusions

UN DESA Population Division: Trends In Total Migrant Stock: The 2005 Revision

The United States is the largest recipient of international migrants, with 38 migrants in 2005. It is followed by the Russian Federation (12 million), Germany (10 million), Ukraine, France and Saudi Arabia (with over 6million international migrants each).

(International) migrant definition in the USSR and the RF statistics and science

Before 1990- main problems: to decrease migration from ruarl areas and to stimulate migration to the regions of rapid industrial development. No experience of international migration estimation (no special methodology, no special definitions)

Demographic encyclopedia published in 1985 defined only “a migrant” as “a person who migrates, i.e.

crosses the administrative borders of territories and changes place of residence for more or less long period”.

Criteria for statistical observation both of internal and international migrants in the USSR and Russia :

neither citizenship, nor place of birth criterion is used. Since 2002- citizenship is one of migrant’s characteristics.- 1992-1993 – refugees and forced migrants definitions,- 2002 – foreign citizens and stateless persons definition- No concrete definiton of an international migrant (Inertia or heritage of the past)

Possible sources of data for migrant stock estimation in the CIS countries:

Census

Administrative records (residents with permits, foreign workers, foreign students, refugees, etc.)

Place of birth Citizenship Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth If not – since what year – Previous place of residence (RF – for those who moved after1989) In some countries- place of residence at the census moment (Moldova), - If was

temporary absent – (period of absence ) (Azerbaijan ), Refugees or deported (Ukraine, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan)

+ Languages, ethnicity

In the RF census program place of previous residence was mentioned only by those who arrivedin 1989-2002 and related to the date of the previous census: Where lived in 1989(Region, Rural or Urban area)

Census :the main source of data for migrants stock

estimation. Questions related to migration in the CIS Censuses (Round 2000) programmes

Foreign and foreign born population in selected CIS countries

 Born out of the rep.

Foreign citizens

% of population:Born out of the rep.

% Foreign citizens

Armenia 285695 27546 8,90% 0,90%

Ukraine 5156240 169122 10,70% 0,40%

Belarus 1158815 107756 11,50% 1,10%

Kazakhstan 2113173 85205 14,10% 0,60%

Russian Federation 11976822 1025413 8,30% 1,00%

Foreign and foreign born population in selected CIS countries

8,90%10,70% 11,50%

14,10%

8,30%

0,90% 0,40% 1,10% 0,60% 1,00%

0%2%

4%6%

8%10%

12%14%

16%

Born out of the rep.

Foreign citizens

Foreign and foreign born population in selected CIS countries

   Population (pers.)

Born in the republic

Born out of the rep. Nationals

Citizens of the other countries and stateless pers.

Armenia

Abs. 3213001 2927306 285695 3185455 27546

% 100,0% 91,1% 8,9% 99,1% 0,9%

Ukraine

Abs. 48240902 43084662 5156240 47950004 169122

% 100,0% 89,3% 10,7% 99,4% 0,4%

Belarus

Abs. 10045237 8886422 1158815 9934539 107756

% 100% 88,5% 11,5% 98,9% 1,1%

Kazakhstan

Abs. 14953126 12839761 2113173 14867921 85205

% 100,0% 85,9% 14,1% 99,4% 0,6%

Russian Federation

Abs. 145166731 131608720 11976822 142442404 1025413

% 100% 90,7% 8,3% 98,1% 1,0%

Period of residence criteria Distribution of life-time migrants (born abroad) by period of residence in selected CIS countries Source: National censuses data (Round 2000)

Period of residence (years)

After the break out of the USSR

Before the break out of the USSR

5 and < 6 -- 9

10 and more total

Ukraine Abs.351123 423451 4377354 5.156.240 778.886

4.377.354

% 6,8% 8,2% 84,9% 100% 15% 85%

Belarus Abs.198883 199738 864402 1.263.023 398.621 864.402

%15,7% 15,8% 68,4% 100,0% 32% 68%

Ethnicity as a criterion for migrants stock estimation

One must be very careful using this criterion

RF population – 190 ethnic groups,

Ukraine, Belarus population - more

than 130 ethnic groups Partially can be applied to

some categories of migrants to monitor their presence in the country.

Self-identification – reliability can not be proven

Thousand  1989 2002

2002/ 1989 (%)

Armeinan 532 1130 212,4

Azerbaijani 336 622 185,1

Russian 119866 115889 97,6%

Percentage and dynamics of titular population in selected CIS countries.(Source - National censuses (Round 2000) data, Statistics yearbook “CIS countries in 2002”)

 % of titular population

Dynamics of titular population since the last USSR census (1989/ 2002 )

% of non-titular population

Azerbaijan 90,6% 1,24 9,4%

Armenia 99,1% 0,98 0,9%

Belarus 81,2% 1,03 18,8%

Kazakhstan 53,4% 1,23 46,6%

Kyrgyzstan 64,9% 1,40 35,1%

Russia79,8% 0,97 20,2%

Ukraine 77,8% 1,003 22,2%

Foreigners, foreign born and non-titular population in selected CIS countries- what criteria is the best?

0,9%

18,8%

46,6%

22,2%

8,9%

11,5%

14,1%

10,7%

0,9%

1,1%

0,6%

0,4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Armenia

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Non-titular population Foreign born Foreigners

Administrative records as a source for migrant stock estimation

Foreign workers Refugees and asylum seekers Data based on registration of foreigners Data on residence permits…

Refugees (forced migrants)in the RF

 Stock of forced migrants total

2002 2003  2004 2005

20504 4726 4 291 8 914

Variables :•Previous place of residence•New place of residence (RF regions)•Number of applications•Age and sex composition•Level of education•Ethnicity•Etc.

Foreign labour force- uncertainty of definitions

 

Total foreign labore force in 2005

Data on 01.01

2005Arrivals

2005

Departures 2005

Data on 31.12.

2005

Foreign workers in the RF 702500 256336 446164 258599 443901

Duration of foreign workers employment in the RF (Arrived in 2005)

0,5% 7,8%4,0%

87,7%

< 3 months

3 - 6 months

6-9 months

9-12 months

Problem of estimation of long-term visa holders

Categories of visa in the RF (each includes subcategories)

Private (short term < or = 3 months) Business (most of subcategories of this visa holders

could be long-term migrants: 3 m., then - up to 12 months, and could be extended)

Tourist (short-term < or = 1 month ) Student (many of visa holders are long-term extended up

to 12 months and more) Job (most of subcategories could be long term) Humanitarian (could be long-term) Asylum (long term) Transit – up to 10 days

Stock of foreigners with residence permits in the RF (Migration service data)

420710

552991

321944

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2003 2004 2005

Stock of foreigners withtemporary residencepermits

Stock of foreigners withpermanent residencepermits

Residents with permitstotal

Presidence permits issued in 2003-2005, RF

246332

170268

253096

13131 15995

73160

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2003 2004 2005

Issued temporaryresidence permits

Issued permanentresidence permits

RF Citizenship acquisition

38117

333117

508457

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

2003

2004

2005

RF Census 2010 migration related questions for residents Place of birth Citizenship: RF, other, How did you get the RF citizenship – by birth of as the USSR passport holder? Or –By naturalization ? Previous citizenshipWhen – did you get the RF citizenship? Your ethnicity Have you ever lived abroad for more than 1 year? Where did you arrived in the RF? etc

Foreign population central data bankPlanned to be created by January 2007), responsible authority – Federal Migration service

Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data)1. Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners2. Data on refugees and asylum seekers3. Foreign workers dataStage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data)4. Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits5. Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreignersStage 3 (other ministries data)6. Federal border service data 7. Visas and invitations statistics 8. Customs Committee data 9. Ministry of taxes data 10. Other ministries and authorities data on foreignersStage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)

Why data on migrants stock are considered to be important?

They are supposed to create a background for the estimation of economic, political and cultural consequences of foreign migrants’ presence in the country, their interaction with local population, etc.

Concerns of immigrants integration

Migrants who moved before the break out of the USSR (and partially – after) needed adaptation rather than integration:

Majority of them spoke the same language, had common cultural origin,

were born in the same country and were nationals of the same state

Experts’ point of view: Who is an international migrant?(Experts – statisticians, migration service officers, researchers.)

Whom do you consider to be a long-term international migrant? ( RF – 12 experts, other CIS count. – 6 experts) Yes No

1. Foreign born residents of your country (citizenship in not considered)

6 (CIS-4)

12 (CIS-2)

2. Citizens of the other countries (place of birth in not considered) 15 3

3. Nationals of your country who returned after a long stay abroad 8 10

4. Non- titular population in your country (having titular states abroad) 1 17

5. Children of foreigners who live in your country and were born in you country 7 11

6. Those who arrived in your republic:6.1. before the collapse of the USSR from the other Soviet republics

5(CIS-3)

13(CIS-3)

6.2. after the decay18

(CIS-6) 0

CIS COUNTRIES: Question 6 .1 Ukraine,

Kazakhstan 3Moldova, Belarus,

Azerbaijan 3

Question 6. 2 6 0

Concluding remarks No concrete or uniform definition of long-term

international migrant in the CIS countries Censuses based data - prevalence of citizenship criterion Preferable source of data - administrative records –

stocks of foreigners of different categories , as they are in focus of migration policy

Ethnicity can not be (the main) criterion for migrant identification in the CIS countries

Practical use of migrant stock estimation (foreign born definition) is not applicable everywhere.

Historical background of population should be taken into account.