Measuring Hunger: What is Required for Policy Making?

J.V. MeenakshiDelhi School of Economics

Data systems needed for

• Monitoring short term shocks (from food price shocks; civil conflict)

• Tracking long term trends (response to secular changes in prices; diet globalization; structural changes in pattern of agriculture)

• Devising appropriate policy responses– Current paradoxes– Data needs for effective policy

Two (Indian) paradoxes

• Apparent lack of relationship between incomes and energy intakes

• Apparent lack of relationship between food intakes and nutritional outcomes (both for children and adults)– Gendered patterns to changes in nutritional

outcomes

Paradox 1: Response of calories to changes in income shifting down over time and becoming flatter. Particularly true for calories from cereals

Stylized representation of Deaton and Dreze (2009)

Log Calories

Log Income

1983

2004/05

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

There is FOSD for total expenditure (proxy for income)

What about changes in distribution?

Stylized representation from Ramaswami et al (2011)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

There is no FOSD for distributions of energy intakes

Stylized representation from Meenakshi and Viswanathan (2003). Actual distributions estimated nonparametrically

Paradox 2: No apparent relationship between food intakes and nutritional outcomes

Source: Meenakshi (2011).

AP Ar P

Ass

Bih

Chhatis

Del

Goa

Guj

Har

HP

J & K

Jhk

Kar

Ker

MP

Maha

Mani

Megh

MizNaga

Ori

Pun

Raj

Sik

TN

Tri

Uttr

UP

WB

20

30

40

50

60

pre

vale

nce r

ate

s

1800 2000 2200 2400calorie intake (per capita per day)

How relevant is the Indian experience?

• Preliminary analyses from a small sample from Zambesia, Mozambique, suggests similar relationships

• Preliminary analysis of data from three districts in Uganda also indicate remarkably low slopes

Implications for the relevance of data for policy design (in India)

• Indian poverty statistics now divorced from poverty lines based on energy intakes. Anchoring is now loosely based on child stunting (though not explicitly stated)

• Right to food soon to be enshrined as law• Young child nutrition interventions have food as

a major plank. Yet the limited number of assessments of the ICDS show no major impact

• Without demonstrating relevance, hard to get buy-in to collect information in the first place. Is this within the FAO’s mandate?

Data needs for effective policy and the role of the FAO

• Is there consensus (particularly among the nutrition community) on the magnitude and interpretation of the norm? – Small changes in norms make big differences to

estimated prevalences of inadequacy– Average calorie gap has, in general, reduced

• If not, what is required to build it? WHO? NIN?• To what extent are these relationships borne

out by 24-hour recall data? Meta analyses would be useful

Data needs for effective policy• Need to strengthen inputs into food balance—are

the state-of-the-art practices being followed?• Price data increasingly critical, especially with

increases in global food prices accompanied by increased volatility in prices. Has implications for design of social safety nets. What is the status of these indicators?

• What are the minimal and feasible set of indicators for monitoring and evaluation of food/health interventions? Plethora of data systems available; but not harmonized. Need for focus on data quality rather than methodology; however…

• “Routine“ information systems must be augmented by complementary information systems; less frequently canvassed, but capable of addressing policy issues. E.g. is it now time to monitor dietary quality in addition to food quantities?

• Simplified methods are essential—can FAO/WHO/WB can play a critical role in designing these? A compromise between 7-14 questions and 40-page questionnaires needed!

• Dietary recall surveys currently too cumbersome to be part of regular data collection efforts. Should the WHO/FAO lead this effort?

LSMS Dietary recall?? DHS