Measuring Energy Security - University of ExeterMeasuring Energy Security: It’s Not Just Economics...
Transcript of Measuring Energy Security - University of ExeterMeasuring Energy Security: It’s Not Just Economics...
Measuring EnergySecurity:
It’s Not Just Economics
Colin Axon, Brunel UniversityRichard Darton, University of OxfordChristian Winzer, University of Cambridge
EPRG, Cambridge, 12th March 2012.
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Energy Security is…
…whatever Energy Securityresearchers say…
“…continuous availability of energy invaried forms, in sufficient quantities, andat reasonable prices”United Nations DevelopmentProgram (UNDP), 2000.World Energy Assessment - Energy and theChallenge ofSustainability
“Energy insecurity can be defined as the lossof welfare that may occur as a result of achange in the price or availability of energy”Bohi and Toman (1996)
“…energy supply security must be gearedto ensuring… the uninterrupted physicalavailability of energy products on themarket, at a price which is affordable for allconsumers (private and industrial), whilerespecting environmental concerns andlooking towards sustainable development”European Commission, 2000.
Commonalities and DifferencesBetween Typical Definitions
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
III) Speed of Impacts: Constant – Slow Changes – Fast Changes
IV) Size of Impacts:Impending Change - Small Change - Phase Change
V) Sustention of Impacts: Transitory – Sustained – Permanent
VI) Spread of Impacts: Local – National – Global
VII) Singularity of Impacts: Unique - Seldom – Frequent
VIII) Sureness of Impacts: Deterministic – Stochastic –Heuristic - Unknown
Dimensions of Energy Security: Broad Concept
II) Scope of the Impact Measure:
Continuityof Service
Supply
Continuityof the
Economy
Severity Filter:
Difference Between Concepts
I) Sources of Risk:
Continuity ofCommodity
Supply
Sustainabilityand Safety
Energy Security
* Natural Risk
* Technical Risk
* Human Risk
Christian Winzer: Conceptualising Energy Security DECC Seminar, 2012/03/07 p. 4C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Continuityof ElectricitySupplies
ContinuityofDomesticElectricitySupplies
Continuity ofDomesticCooking dueto Natural GasDisruptions
Potential Continuity Metrics: Sinks and Sources
etc...
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
PotentialContinuityMetrics:
Price Welfare UnsuppliedConsumption
a. Increasing Constant orIncreasing
Constant orDecreasing
b. Constant orDecreasing
Decreasing Constant orDecreasing
c. Constant orDecreasing
Constant orIncreasing
Increasing
So we are trying to protect against?
Christian Winzer: Conceptualising Energy Security DECC Seminar, 2012/03/07 p. 6
Continuityof What?
c. Unsupplied Comsumption?
b. Welfare?
a.Prices?(demand weighted!)
Quantity
Price
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Integrals or Intersects
Direction?(up-/downside)
Size?(Amplitude)
Speed?(Frequency filter of Averaging Period)
Point in Time?(present/future)
Singularity?(distance between)
Quantity
Price / Welfare/Consumpt. Loss Which Signal Filters?
Shocks, Stresses and other Severity Filters
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Some Common Problems
The use of compound measures can increase therisk of problems due to hidden dependencies
Concentration Measures (weighted/unweighted)
Diversity Indexes
Import Shares
Physical Reliability
Range of Risks
Dimensionless Scales
Correlations
Data Reliability
Supply Chains
Workshops
Economic Activity
Infrastructure
Policy Needs toMake Trade-offs
Riskto
Continuity
Cost efficiency of allocationand production
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Supplies relative todemand
Impacts on theenvironment
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
The Role of Metrics
Finding criteria to tell us whetherone policy, project, or product
increases or reduces “security”
ManyLocal
MEASUREMENTSFew System INDICATORS
Balancing economic,environmental, and
human/social impacts
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
1. Clear definition of what is to be assessed,and why(Government policy, plant operation, sector regulation, etc).
2. The metrics must assess impacts on economics andbusiness, the environment, and society.
3. Coverage – key aspects must be included.
4. Available data – quantifiable empirical data.
5. Composites if appropriate (weighting).
6. Avoid duplication and needless complexity.
The Requirements of the Metrics
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Chee Tahir, A. and Darton, R.C. (2010)Journal of Cleaner Production 18, 1598-1607
The Process Analysis Method
Indicators
Process
Impact
Issues External Impact Receivers
CAUSES
CREATES
DESCRIBED BY
CHANGING
AFFECTING
Human /Social
Environmental Economic
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Overview of System
Definition of Security
Framework for AnalysisAnalyse the system to identify all significant impactson the three domains - stores of value (capital)
Characterise these impacts with metrics
Definition of System Boundary in Time and SpaceThe overview must include all processes within the boundary
The Process Analysis Method
Environmental
Economic
Human /Social
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Framework for Analysis
1. Three domains / stores ofvalue (capital)
2. Perspectives• resource efficiency• human/social advance• environmental compatibilityIndicators reflect these
4. Identify issues associatedwith impact on External ImpactReceivers.EIR=guardian of capital
5. For each issue select anindicator
3. Identify Internal ImpactGeneratorsIIG=business process or policythat impacts a store of value
6. Quantitative measures foreach indicator – the metrics
The Process Analysis Method
EnvironmentalEconomicHuman /
Social
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
PAM Applied to Energy Security
Perspectives:Resource efficiency and fairness in (dis)benefit
(Bruntland)
Continuity and resilience
We used:
Our system:• Find resources• Extract resources => dispose of waste• Condition and process resources => dispose of waste• Transport resources• Convert resources => dispose of waste• Distribute (infrastructure)• Use => dispose of waste
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Internal Impact Generators:• Government / Regulatory bodies• Resource extraction companies• Resource processing companies• Energy/power device manufacturers• Users
External Impact Receivers:• Consumers• Employees• Capital Providers• Utility companies• Communities• Future communities
PAM Applied to Energy Security
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
# / yearNumber ofengineeringgraduates
Availability of skilled labourEmployment
Years?Payback timeInflexible assets (planning,high cost, technical)
Interest rateCost of capitalAvailability of capitalNeed for capitalintensive plant
MetricIndicatorIssueImpact
??Political instabilityNo access toGovernment
#StirlingDiversity Index
Increase in dependence -forced change in supply
£ / PJ (or KWh)Cost / unitCost increaseDepletion of finiteresources
Example Output
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
# / yearHospital admissionsMortality / morbidityof the general public
Health impacts(e.g. particulates)
Customer MinsLost (CMLs)
Time unavailableTechnical failure
??Regulatoryuncertainty
Flight of capital
# / yearProportion of planningapplications rejected
Public oppositionVisual impacts
%# of tankers hijackedPiracyShipping delay
Hours / dayTime availableDemand > supplyLoss of power
MetricIndicatorIssueImpact
Example Output
Non-economic Feedbacks from Sustainability
2000. Reformed nuclear laws2002. Reformed nuclear laws-No new plants-Maximum lifetime 32 years-Remaining energy 2.62 Mio GWh-Last closure expected 2022
2010. Reformed nuclear laws-Lifetime extension between 8 and 14years-Additional energy 1.8 Mio GWh for 17plants-Last closure expected 2036
2011. 13th Reformed nuclear laws-closure of first 8.5GW (~10.5%peak)within 1 month-closure of all remaining plants by 2022
Closure of Nuclear Plants in Germany
Image Courtesy Wikipedia
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
UK Nuclear R&D Workforce
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
A set of metrics not planned for some defined purposeis merely a collection of statistics.
When a measure becomes a target, it ceasesto be a good measure.
Goodhart’s Law re-stated by Marilyn Strathern
A Metrics Health Warning!
C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. [email protected]
Summary
Reconceptualising Energy Security brings realisation ofthe important processes involved.
Need to create metrics in a transparentmanner to monitor progress which will….
…act as a coherent assessment of theUK's Energy Security, and guide
formulation of coherent policy.
EnvironmentalEconomicHuman /
Social