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measuring effect of investment in health on employment in Pakistan
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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring Effect of investment in health sector on
employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
By
HINA AFTAB
Registration # 1446-111032
Supervisor
Dr. Khalid Mughal
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
A project submitted to DEPARTMENT OF ECONIMICS, PRESTON
UNIVERSITY, ISLAMABAD, in partial fulfillment of the requirement for
the degree of (MSC Economics)
PRESTON UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Jan 2013
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Final Approval
This project titled
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring Effect of investment in health sector on
employment in Pakistan
By
Hina Aftab
Registration # 1446-111032
Has been approved
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
For the Preston university, Islamabad
Supervisor’s signature:__________________
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Certificate
I hereby declared that this thesis neither as a whole nor as a part is copied from any source. It is
further declared that I have developed this thesis and the accompanied report entirely on the
basis of my personal efforts made under the sincere guidance of my supervisors.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
No portion of the work presented in this report has been submitted in support of my degree or
qualification of this or any other university or institute of learning, if found I shall be
responsible.
Signature: HINA AFTAB
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Registration Number: 1446-111032
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Abstract
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
This piece of research dissects the matter looking into existing literatures. This research was
also done by consulting with data from economic survey of Pakistan and State bank of
Pakistan.
The tool of analysis for the gathered data was statistical using linear regression model to
analyze the dependence of rural and urban employment on health investment.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Conclusively, the research shows that investments in health sector create more jobs in rural
areas then urban areas. The absence of investment in health sector in urban and rural areas
causes reduction of 58% and 178% from urban and rural employment level respectively
Hence, the research result point to the fact that investment in health sector increases urban and
rural employment. Hence, accepting the null and rejecting the alternative hypothesis. .
Key words: health investment, rural employment, urban employment.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Dedication
For those who are very much sincere with me and I owe my life
to my parents
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
UNDERTAKING
It is certified that my article titled:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
“Measuring effect of investment in health on employment in Pakistan”
Is submitted for Preston university Islamabad Campus and it is under confederation.
I agree to forward the copyrights of this research paper to Preston University.
I further certified that the research paper is free from plagiarism up to the minimum
Level to the minimum required by the Higher Education Commission.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Author: Hina Aftab
Supervisor: Dr. Khalid Mughal
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
All praise is due to Allah, the Al-Mighty that generated me the strength to complete this
research. It has not been easy task but an effort that demand serious and focus attention. I am so
much indebted to my supervisor, whose valuable time has contributed hugely to the completion
of the whole task. I am equally indebted all my family members and friends that have given the
support that it is worth doing. I have no other words than to say thank you to all.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Table of Content
1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………09
I. Introduction……………………………………………………………………...09
II. Problem statement………………………………………………………………..09
III. Research question………………………………………………………………...10
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
IV. Objective………………………………………………………………………….10
V. Significance ………………………………………………………………………11
2. Literature review…………………………………………………………………….12
I. Literature review………………………………………………………12
3. Methodology………………………………………………………………………….18
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
I. Research methodology………………………………………………………...18
II. Research type………………………………………………………………….18
III. Variables……………………………………………………………………….18
IV. Type of data…………………………………………………………………...18
V. Population……………………………………………………………………...18
VI. Sample………………………………………………………………………....18
VII. Hypothesis……………………………………………………………………..19
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
VIII. Model…………………………………………………………………………..19
IX. Schematic diagram …………………………………………………………….20
4. Results and Discussion ………………………………………………………………21
I. Urban employment and investment in health sector…………………………..21
II. Rural employment and investment in health sector…………………………...22
III. Discussion……………………………………………………………………...23
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
5. Recommendation…………………………………………………………………….24
I. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………….24II. Recommendation……………………………………………………………...24
III. Limitations…………………………………………………………………….24IV. Future gap……………………………………………………………………..25
Chapter # 1
INTRODUCTION
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Human capital is a blessing of ALLAH if it’s healthy. The economic development and
activities are relied on human capital that a country possesses. The developed countries which
are highly capitalized are also contingences on human capital to run economic system
efficiently. Efficiency of human capital is relied health; the healthy human capital gives surety
of economic growth. Health is the result of education, investment and social habits. These
systems are good in developed world that’s why they are enjoying benefits of human capital
and are growing day by day economically. (Babar 2012)
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
The dilemma of developing countries is that they are not able to provide the basic needs to its
nation i.e. clean drinking water, education, food and shelter. The human capital of these
countries are not healthy due to which its burden for economy of these countries.
In developing countries, the concept of family planning is being adopted by new generation.
Politicians and socialists says that population is a burden on our economy. In their view with
huge population a country cannot improve its economy. Government of developing countries
says that due to large population country is in bad faze of economy. Entrepreneurs/ financial
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
analyst says that if a country’s population growth rate is less than one percent it is positive sign
for economic growth and its per capita income will increase with high rate. A group of
economist says that country having population growth rate three percent or more than three
percent will surely survive easily. (Babar 2012)
Problem statement:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Pakistan is facing worst economic scenario of its life. Most people are hungry for basic needs
i.e. electricity, shelter, water, fuel and food. Government says that due to huge population they
are unable to provide all facilities to every patriot of country. In fact Govt. is working on a
phenomena that keep your people busy in search of basic needs they will not take interest in
other matters. Pakistan is the 7th biggest country according to population and is on 36th biggest
country according to area. ALLAH blessed Pakistan with lot of resources and also blessed
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
with talented human capital. The only requirement is to use human capital and resources
efficiently to gain stable economic growth.
Human Capital need better education, social environment and health facilities to grow
efficiently. Pakistan is blessed with 40 percent of youth in population but unfortunately due to
mental stress some of them choose suicide as a best solution, some boys and girls are impressed
by living style of west and adopted only bad things and are ruining their life and country’s
resources.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Pakistanis are patient of depression due to excellent reporting of media. Media shows and
highlight only bad incidence of Pakistan. In case of bomb blast or any other natural disaster, it
telecasts or presents even those dead bodies and human parts that cannot be seen by each and
every person. As a result of their fabulous work our youth and specially children are having
wrong psychological effects which will harm our society in long term.
The Govt. of Pakistan and private investors are investing in health sector but the need is to
know that whether their investment is giving good results or the results are opposite to the
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
expectations of investors. Most NGOs are investing only in women health care projects and
ignoring other sectors. Govt. of Pakistan invests only 20 percent of budget on health sector and
also management is not taking interest in health of poor patriot of Pakistan. They take interest
and work for only elite class of Pakistan.
Research question:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Does the investment in different health departments effect the employment in rural and urban
areas?
Objectives:
To know the relationship of investment on health sector, employment in rural and urban
areas.
To know the investment trend in health sector.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
To know the areas that needs more attention.
To know the department which creates more jobs in comparison with other health
divisions?
Significance:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
It will highlight the positive or negative relationship of investment in different health
departments and employment level. Policy makers can use it to make efficient policies that will
give maximum output by using minimum input. It will highlight the health departments that are
not getting proper attention of investors. It will also show that health investment in rural areas
is more beneficiary or in urban areas.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Chapter # 2
Literature Review
Khalif Bile Mohammad, Assad hafeez & Sania Nishter (2007) in their study gives the detail of
investors and donors of health sector of Pakistan. According to them Pakistan’s per capita
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
expenditure on health in 2004-05 is RS. 375 and contribution by donors and international
agencies is only RS.80 (US$1.3). ADB, WB, EU, GAVI, GFATM, USAID, MOH, MOPW
and DOH are major source of investment in health sector. They have invested in different long
term and short term projects of Maternal and child health, communicable diseases, health
system and planning and for budgetary support to MOH (ministry of health). Government of
Pakistan spent RS.240 billion on health during (1995-2005) out of which RS.66 billion spent
on non-developmental bill and RS.174 billion on developmental bills. Provincial government
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
provides RS.185 billion and federal government provides RS.55 billion. According to their
research Pakistan’s population is increasing daya by day whereas income is not increasing
proportionally, health sector is unable to fulfill the needs of existent population efficiently, and
more investment i.e 50% 50% more investment every year till 2015 in health sector for is
needed to fulfill the gap between demand and supply of health services.
Abo ul Hassan, Shahnwaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sidra Khalil (2011) discuss the
relationship between health expenditures and poverty. To measure health status they used life
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
expectancy as proxy. They conclude that increase in health efficiency will result in reduction
of poverty. Due to increased health facilities the day to day loss will be minimized, the
enrollment of students in educational institutions will be improved and hence it will provide
good economic growth as well.
Mohammad Akram & Faheem Jehangir Khan (2007) analyzes the behavior of public spending
on health in provinces. According to their analysis the government spending on health is
progressive in Punjab and Baluchistan and regressive in Sindh, NWFP and rural Punjab. The
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
study indicates that poor can’t afford to avail better health facilities because of high cost of
services. . People of rural areas have to rely on primary health facilities only. All good
hospitals are in cities only. Also doctors don’t want to spend their time in rural areas for duty
due to unavailability of luxuries.
Haleema Masud (2011) said that in Pakistan health policy is not only related with benefits of
patriots of Pakistan, it is also treated as a political factor. Government designs health policy
for those people and areas from where they can get votes for election in their benefits. She
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
emphasized that health policy should be revised and made by analyzing the social and
individual benefits of health.
Faisal Abbas (2010) said that the life expectancy of women is lowest in Pakistan in
comparison of other developing countries and infant mortality rate is highest. Pakistan’s
elasticity of public health expenditure is negative in short run and less than one in long run.
Infant mortality rate will be reduced due to increase in income and life expectancy will
increase due to increase in income. He said that government should analyze human capital
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
formation and poverty reduction while making health policy. The supply of healthy food
should be available in every part of Pakistan to get better human capital with increased
productivity.
Babar Tasneem Shaikh, Arslan Mazhar, Shahzad Ali Khan & Assad Hafeez (2012) study tells
that healthcare facilities are very expensive in Pakistan due to which almost 150 million
people suffer from economic disaster and 100 million become poor due to health expenditures.
This problem predominately conquers in the resource constrained settings and Pakistan is one
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
example where health financing options and social security contrivances for the households is
either non-existent or very limited. With a maternal mortality ratio of 278/100,000 live births,
contraceptive incidence rate of 29.6% and only 39% deliveries attended by the skilled birth
attendants, Pakistan ranks 65thin Gender Inequality Index with an overall Human Development
Index ranking of 125thover the last 3 years. Around 0.6% of GDP and least progressive
expenses on health have been incurred over the last two decades in Pakistan.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Dr. Talib Lashari (2005) tells that the country's overall social sector financing needs to be
mounted up further to make it alert to the real needs. Two major sources of the sponsoring i.e.
public and private sector are working in vertical directions with no connections in the areas of
financing and service delivery. According to assessments public sector provides 23 percent of
the total health expenditures while rest (77) comes from out-of-pocket expenses in the private
sector. Only one million of the population is protected through social insurance provided by
Employees Social Security association, while another 0.93 million people have heath
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
protection through PIA, Pakistan Railways, WAPDA, PTCL and Fauji Foundation. Besides,
public sector organizations, civil society is also contributing towards health of the population
through its limited resources. Organizations like Edhi Foundation, Aga Khan Foundation,
social marketing enterprises and others are providing healthcare to people in different parts of
the country. According to assessments Aga Khan Foundation, Save the Children (US) and
Saving Newborn Lives Initiative are running projects worth US$304.19 million. Al Shifa
Trust paid out RS. 1615 million during 1986-2004.The scenario that emerges from the above
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
discussion makes it clear that the current rate of health financing is insufficient for the existing
needs of the population.
Muhammad Iqbal Afridi (2008) indicates that situation in Pakistan about improvement in
mental health services is not at the pace to reach a reasonable level. This important field of
health is not popular, as it should be if we relate it to some other medical and surgical
disciplines such as cardiology and ophthalmology etc. Bulk of the people have some
knowledge about hypertension, cholesterol, ECG and too often reveal and verbalize at length
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
about their cardiac illness, which were formerly used to be a stigma or personal weakness.
Likewise using glasses were reflected to be a sign of old age until quite recently and their use
was avoided particularly by women in our country. At the other end, seeking help regarding
mental disorder is avoided. Even referring for sexual problem is considered debauched and is
an unthinkable. One cause behind this could be that the image concerning mental patients,
hospitals and related occupation and specialists e.g. psychologists, psychiatrists etc., is
portrayed in an awkward manner by the beginners in a few sections of Pakistan's mass media.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
It hardly helps the purpose of promoting mental health and, at times, leads to dishonesty and
caricature creating hatred about the subject. The incursion of TV channels accessible to
persons of all age and brackets with sometime unethical and non-authentic opinions needs
urgent attention.
Abo ul Hassan, Shahnawaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sadia Khalil (2011) investigates
the effects of health status proxy by life expectancy and the expenditures on health along with
the leading socio-economic factors on the poverty levels proxy by head count ratio in
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Pakistan. Even though it is a well-documented fact that the health indicators in Pakistan have
been improved remarkably since its independence, yet its standing is still far behind among
the nations of the world. Again one can easily examine the ambiguity between the soaring rate
of funding in health sector and its outcomes. The dilemma a simple question whether the
expenditures on health alone for the facility of health services to the masses is adequate
enough to lessen poverty in Pakistan, or rather, if there are other socio-economic factors which
are decisive to alleviate poverty in Pakistan so far. The paper had applied the methods of least
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
squares to examine the relationship between poverty and health status in Pakistan. The study
builds strong relationship between health and poverty in Pakistan. The paper declares that
health is a significant determinant of economic performance and there exists a strong
relationship between poverty and measures of health. It has also argued that the key
improvements in health would cause immense economic gains. Thus, the idea is verified that
improved health status increases the human skill and earning capacity which eventually
reduces the poverty levels.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Faisal Sultan Qadri, Abdul Waheed (2011) in their study estimated the relationship between
human capital and economic growth by using time series data of Pakistan for the period 1978
to 2007. A health adjusted education pointer for human capital is used in the customary Cobb-
Douglas production function authorizes the long run positive affiliation between human
capital and the economic growth in Pakistan. A compassion study was also performed in order
to check the strength of the early findings. The assessment results supported the findings of
the former studies that human capital is positively related to growth and also that the results
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
are vigorous. The health accustomed education indicator was found to be a vastly significant
factor of economic growth, which shows that both the health and education sectors should be
given special attention in order to certify long run economic growth.
Pakistan: Country Gender Profile Study (2008), SDPI, indicates that the problems of health
cannot be looked in separation and broader parameters need to be developed to confirm
equality for women. The health facilities for the grassroots are over-burdened and the quality
of health services undergoes greatly. The public health care system undergoes as doctors wish
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
to give services to the prosperous. The reliance of the Ministry of Health on donors in
applying international health policies and programs creates doubts regarding the amount and
stream of financial resources and distracts execution. High costs, fixity of women, limited
decision making and limited information are major obstacles in seeking appropriate health
care. Increased investment in the health sector with a clear aim to decrease the gender
inequality is a central element of the government’s agenda.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Dr Sania Nishtar (2007) said that public-private partnership should be increase in haelh sector
in order to enhance efficiency of health sector. She gave number of arrangements that can be
changed as a result of interfacing the roles, tasks and privileges of the public and private
sectors in traditional health systems. For instance, at a service delivery level, prime healthcare
services can be contracted out to the private sector, completely or in part; alternatively, the
public sector can also contract in private sector proficiency and risk-taking talent to achieve
health facilities. At a health financing level, the private sector can deliver substitutes to tax
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
revenues; for example, the private insurance industry can be a cause of finance for healthcare
in countries where the legally employed sector is leading; communities can donate to social
insurance pools, and individual charity can be channeled into social protection funds. At a
governance level the private sector can be symbolized on self-governing governance boards of
hospitals; whereas at a basic healthcare level, communities can be convoluted in institutional
decision making.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Samina T. Panwhar (2009) presented an analysis of policies related with child mortality in
Pakistan centering on problem structuring, using a contrast with Bangladesh. Pakistan’s
progress in child mortality rate has been much slower than that of Bangladesh in spite of the
fact that Pakistan has excelled in economic growth, and the two countries have equivalent
populations and share political history. A comparative study of policy documents studied for
the two countries explains the fact that Bangladesh, in framing its child health policy, has
highlighted the input factors such as nutrition and environmental aspects, in addition health
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
services. Pakistan, on the other hand, retains a general problem origination strategy focusing
mainly on health service and disregarding the social, environmental, and other factors
producing morbidity and mortality in children.
Abdul Wali khan & Zahoor Khan (2006) said in their study that there is an increasing
tendency for the demand of such types of facilities i.e. hospitals, dispensaries, maternity and
child health centers, rural health center, TB center and BHUs & sub health center, therefore
the Government should take into consideration the increasing demand for these facilities. The
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
government should focus on this issue and should increase the shares of budget allocated for
this end.
Asghar Reza & Suman Valeecha (2012) examined the influence of Structural Adjustment
Loans attained from world bodies on health conditions and concurrently on economic progress
of Pakistan, constructed on an econometric model. To test the association between such
programs, health indicators and economic growth, they used time series data for the period of
1980-81 to 2009-2010 and examined by conducting statistical tests. The empirical results
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
confirm the hypothesis that there is no relationship between the two factors i.e. structural
adjustment loans do no contribute towards the enlargement of health conditions in Pakistan.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Chapter # 3
Methodology
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
This study has been an attempt to find out the effect of investment in health on employment on
rural and urban areas in Pakistan.
RESEACH TYPE:
This is a quantitative research.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
POPULTION: Data about the investment in health sector and rural and urban employment
from year 1947 to 2012 is the population.
SAMPLE: To analyze the relationship of investment in health sector and rural and urban
employment 16.6% of population is taken as sample. Sample consists of most recent past years
that is 2001 to 2011 and consist of 11 values.
VARIABLES:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Independent variable: hospital, dispensaries, maternal and child health centers, rural health
center, TB center and BHUs & sub health centers.
Dependent variable: rural employment, urban employment
Type of data:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Secondary data about number of hospitals (H), dispensaries (DS), BHUs and sub health centers
(BH), maternity and child health centers (MC), rural health centers (RH), TB centers (TC),
employment in rural and urban areas of Pakistan is gathered by economic survey of Pakistan.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Hypothesis:
Null hypothesis
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
H0: Increased investment in building hospital, dispensaries, TB centers and maternal and child
health centers will increase employment in urban areas.
H1: investment in building rural health centers and BHUS and sub health centers will increase
employment in rural areas.
Alternative hypothesis:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
H1: Increased investment in building hospital, dispensaries, TB centers and maternal and child
health centers will decrease employment in urban areas.
H2: investment in building rural health centers and BHUS and sub health centers will decrease
employment in rural areas.
Model:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Simple linear regression model is used to check the relationship between dependent and
independent variable and OLS method is used due to its BLUE properties.
Y=β0+β2X+Ui
Above model is general form where X represents independent variables i.e. hospital,
dispensaries, BHUs and sub health centers, rural health centers, TB centers and maternal and
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
child health centers and Y represents dependent variables i.e. rural employment and urban
employment. E-view has been used to find regression lines.
Regression line for urban employment:
UE=β0+β1H+β2DS+β3MC+β4TC+Ui
Regression line for rural employment:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
RE= β0+β1RH+β2BH+Ui
Schematic Diagram:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Chapter # 4
Results and Discussion
Introductory Paragraph:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
We all know the general rule that investment in any sector creates jobs in the country. All sectors have different impact on employment some sectors creates more jobs than other. Here the impact of health investment is checked on urban and rural employment in Pakistan.
Urban employment and investment in health sector
Dependent Variable: UE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/14/12 Time: 14:25
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Sample: 2001 2011
Included observations: 11
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -58.70374 8.684251 -6.759793 0.0005
H 0.007199 0.021317 0.337697 0.7471
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
DS 0.006714 0.004282 1.567957 0.1679
MC 0.030012 0.009730 3.084436 0.0215
TC 0.026521 0.027060 0.980096 0.3649
R-squared 0.961062 Mean dependent var 14.32909
Adjusted R-squared 0.935104 S.D. dependent var 1.437264
S.E. of regression 0.366140 Akaike info criterion 1.131351
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Sum squared resid 0.804349 Schwarz criterion 1.312212
Log likelihood -1.222429 F-statistic 37.02300
Durbin-Watson stat 2.430672 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000229
Regression line for urban employment
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
UE= -58.70374+0.007199H+0.006714DS+0.030012MC+0.026521TC
It shows that by increasing one percent increase of Hospitals (H), dispensaries (DS), maternal
and child health centers (MC) and TB centers (TC) employment rate in urban areas will be
increased by 0.007199%, 0.006714%, 0.030012% and 0.026521% respectively. Although these
are minor values but in absence of investment in these departments employment rate in urban
areas will reduce by 58.70374% which will have negative impact on society. Investment in
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
establishment of maternal health & child health centers and hospitals is more beneficiary then
establishment of dispensaries and TB centers.
Rural employment and investment in health sector:
Dependent Variable: RE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/14/12 Time: 14:39
Sample: 2001 2011
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Included observations: 11
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -178.6400 122.2111 -1.461733 0.1820
RH 0.294242 0.096342 3.054160 0.0157
BH 0.008694 0.031054 0.279965 0.7866
R-squared 0.835293 Mean dependent var 32.68273
Adjusted R-squared 0.794116 S.D. dependent var 4.340712
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
S.E. of regression 1.969574 Akaike info criterion 4.420512
Sum squared resid 31.03376 Schwarz criterion 4.529029
Log likelihood -21.31282 F-statistic 20.28553
Durbin-Watson stat 1.297739 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000736
Regression line for rural employment:
RE= -178.6400+0.294242RH+0.008694BH
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
It shows that one percent increase in investment in rural health centers and BHUs and sub
health centers will increase the employment rate in rural areas by 0.294242% and 0.008694%
respectively and in absence of investment in these departments will reduce employment rate by
178.64%. Investment in establishing rural health centers is more beneficiary then establishing
BHUs and sub health sector.
Discussion:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
The data available about rural and urban employment was according to financial years, and
some values were missing. So for calculation I assumed that same trend will be for the missing
values. I used 11 observations in my project. The study shows that the overall impact of health
investment is positive since last 11 years but the investment in establishment of maternal &
child health center, hospitals and rural health center is not sufficient. The increase due to health
investment is negligible due to reduced investment. The main point is that if we stop investing
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
in health then we will lose large portion of employment i.e. 58% decrease in urban employment
and 178% decrease in rural employment.
The decrease is not negligible because if the investment in health is reduced then people will
remain sick and due to sickness absent ratio from jobs will be high. Thus employment will
reduce.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Chapter # 5
Recommendations and conclusion
Conclusion:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
The increase in employment due to health investment is negligible but the decrease in
employment due to absence of health investment is not negligible. Rural areas are neglected.
Overall health investment have increasing trend but with small percentage change.
Recommendations:
On the basis of estimated values and past history of health departments I suggest that
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
More investment is needed in establishing hospitals, Maternal and child health care centers
and rural health centers because these are the areas which are being ignored in past 11
years.
Trend and statistical results also show that establishment of rural health centers increases
rural employment with more percentage than BHUs and sub health centers. Similarly
investment in maternal and child health center increases urban employment with more
percentage than hospitals, dispensaries and TB centers.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Practice in rural areas must be compulsory for all medical students for at least one year.
Incentive and bonus should be given to those doctors and medical staff that serve in rural
areas.
LIMITATIONS:
Proxy variables are used to measure health investment.
Repeated figures in rural and urban employment.
Ignorance of variables that effect health investment.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Small sample.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
FUTURE GAP:
This study is just meant to discuss whether investment in health is beneficiary or not. It can
be explored further by incorporating more variables or by adopting a more sophisticated
econometric technique.
Identification of rural areas that need attention of ministry of health.
Find out the reasons due to which investment is not sufficient in health sector.
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
To find system which will increase efficiency of health sector?
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Appendix:
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
YEAR Hospital (H) Dispensaries (DS)
BHUs and sub health centers (BH)
Maternity and child health center (MC)
Rural health(RH)
TB centers (TC)
2001 907 4625 5230 879 541 2722002 906 4590 5308 862 550 2852003 906 4554 5290 907 552 2892004 916 4582 5301 906 556 2892005 919 4632 5334 907 556 289
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
2006 924 4712 5336 906 560 2882007 945 4755 5349 903 562 2902008 948 4794 5310 908 561 2932009 968 4813 5345 906 572 2932010 972 4842 5344 909 577 3042011 972 4842 5374 909 584 304
Source: Economic survey of Pakistan 2011-12
Employment by region and gender (million)
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Yearsemployed
ruralemployed
urban2001 26.66 12.222002 26.66 12.222003 28.81 13.192004 28.81 13.192005 32.49 14.462006 33.11 14.542007 34.48 14.612008 35.54 15.25
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
2009 37.25 15.962010 37.85 15.992011 37.85 15.99
Source: Labor survey of Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan
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