measuring effect of investment in health on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan Measuring Effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

description

This piece of research dissects the matter looking into existing literatures. This research was also done by consulting with data from economic survey of Pakistan and State bank of Pakistan.The tool of analysis for the gathered data was statistical using linear regression model to analyze the dependence of rural and urban employment on health investment.Conclusively, the research shows that investments in health sector create more jobs in rural areas then urban areas. The absence of investment in health sector in urban and rural areas causes reduction of 58% and 18% from urban and rural employment level respectivelyHence, the research result point to the fact that investment in health sector increases urban and rural employment. Hence, accepting the null and rejecting the alternative hypothesis.

Transcript of measuring effect of investment in health on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring Effect of investment in health sector on

employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

By

HINA AFTAB

Registration # 1446-111032

Supervisor

Dr. Khalid Mughal

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

A project submitted to DEPARTMENT OF ECONIMICS, PRESTON

UNIVERSITY, ISLAMABAD, in partial fulfillment of the requirement for

the degree of (MSC Economics)

PRESTON UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Jan 2013

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Final Approval

This project titled

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Measuring Effect of investment in health sector on

employment in Pakistan

By

Hina Aftab

Registration # 1446-111032

Has been approved

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

For the Preston university, Islamabad

Supervisor’s signature:__________________

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Certificate

I hereby declared that this thesis neither as a whole nor as a part is copied from any source. It is

further declared that I have developed this thesis and the accompanied report entirely on the

basis of my personal efforts made under the sincere guidance of my supervisors.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

No portion of the work presented in this report has been submitted in support of my degree or

qualification of this or any other university or institute of learning, if found I shall be

responsible.

Signature: HINA AFTAB

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Registration Number: 1446-111032

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Abstract

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

This piece of research dissects the matter looking into existing literatures. This research was

also done by consulting with data from economic survey of Pakistan and State bank of

Pakistan.

The tool of analysis for the gathered data was statistical using linear regression model to

analyze the dependence of rural and urban employment on health investment.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Conclusively, the research shows that investments in health sector create more jobs in rural

areas then urban areas. The absence of investment in health sector in urban and rural areas

causes reduction of 58% and 178% from urban and rural employment level respectively

Hence, the research result point to the fact that investment in health sector increases urban and

rural employment. Hence, accepting the null and rejecting the alternative hypothesis. .

Key words: health investment, rural employment, urban employment.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Dedication

For those who are very much sincere with me and I owe my life

to my parents

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

UNDERTAKING

It is certified that my article titled:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

“Measuring effect of investment in health on employment in Pakistan”

Is submitted for Preston university Islamabad Campus and it is under confederation.

I agree to forward the copyrights of this research paper to Preston University.

I further certified that the research paper is free from plagiarism up to the minimum

Level to the minimum required by the Higher Education Commission.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Author: Hina Aftab

Supervisor: Dr. Khalid Mughal

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

All praise is due to Allah, the Al-Mighty that generated me the strength to complete this

research. It has not been easy task but an effort that demand serious and focus attention. I am so

much indebted to my supervisor, whose valuable time has contributed hugely to the completion

of the whole task. I am equally indebted all my family members and friends that have given the

support that it is worth doing. I have no other words than to say thank you to all.

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Table of Content

1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………09

I. Introduction……………………………………………………………………...09

II. Problem statement………………………………………………………………..09

III. Research question………………………………………………………………...10

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IV. Objective………………………………………………………………………….10

V. Significance ………………………………………………………………………11

2. Literature review…………………………………………………………………….12

I. Literature review………………………………………………………12

3. Methodology………………………………………………………………………….18

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I. Research methodology………………………………………………………...18

II. Research type………………………………………………………………….18

III. Variables……………………………………………………………………….18

IV. Type of data…………………………………………………………………...18

V. Population……………………………………………………………………...18

VI. Sample………………………………………………………………………....18

VII. Hypothesis……………………………………………………………………..19

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VIII. Model…………………………………………………………………………..19

IX. Schematic diagram …………………………………………………………….20

4. Results and Discussion ………………………………………………………………21

I. Urban employment and investment in health sector…………………………..21

II. Rural employment and investment in health sector…………………………...22

III. Discussion……………………………………………………………………...23

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5. Recommendation…………………………………………………………………….24

I. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………….24II. Recommendation……………………………………………………………...24

III. Limitations…………………………………………………………………….24IV. Future gap……………………………………………………………………..25

Chapter # 1

INTRODUCTION

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Human capital is a blessing of ALLAH if it’s healthy. The economic development and

activities are relied on human capital that a country possesses. The developed countries which

are highly capitalized are also contingences on human capital to run economic system

efficiently. Efficiency of human capital is relied health; the healthy human capital gives surety

of economic growth. Health is the result of education, investment and social habits. These

systems are good in developed world that’s why they are enjoying benefits of human capital

and are growing day by day economically. (Babar 2012)

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The dilemma of developing countries is that they are not able to provide the basic needs to its

nation i.e. clean drinking water, education, food and shelter. The human capital of these

countries are not healthy due to which its burden for economy of these countries.

In developing countries, the concept of family planning is being adopted by new generation.

Politicians and socialists says that population is a burden on our economy. In their view with

huge population a country cannot improve its economy. Government of developing countries

says that due to large population country is in bad faze of economy. Entrepreneurs/ financial

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analyst says that if a country’s population growth rate is less than one percent it is positive sign

for economic growth and its per capita income will increase with high rate. A group of

economist says that country having population growth rate three percent or more than three

percent will surely survive easily. (Babar 2012)

Problem statement:

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Pakistan is facing worst economic scenario of its life. Most people are hungry for basic needs

i.e. electricity, shelter, water, fuel and food. Government says that due to huge population they

are unable to provide all facilities to every patriot of country. In fact Govt. is working on a

phenomena that keep your people busy in search of basic needs they will not take interest in

other matters. Pakistan is the 7th biggest country according to population and is on 36th biggest

country according to area. ALLAH blessed Pakistan with lot of resources and also blessed

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with talented human capital. The only requirement is to use human capital and resources

efficiently to gain stable economic growth.

Human Capital need better education, social environment and health facilities to grow

efficiently. Pakistan is blessed with 40 percent of youth in population but unfortunately due to

mental stress some of them choose suicide as a best solution, some boys and girls are impressed

by living style of west and adopted only bad things and are ruining their life and country’s

resources.

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Pakistanis are patient of depression due to excellent reporting of media. Media shows and

highlight only bad incidence of Pakistan. In case of bomb blast or any other natural disaster, it

telecasts or presents even those dead bodies and human parts that cannot be seen by each and

every person. As a result of their fabulous work our youth and specially children are having

wrong psychological effects which will harm our society in long term.

The Govt. of Pakistan and private investors are investing in health sector but the need is to

know that whether their investment is giving good results or the results are opposite to the

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expectations of investors. Most NGOs are investing only in women health care projects and

ignoring other sectors. Govt. of Pakistan invests only 20 percent of budget on health sector and

also management is not taking interest in health of poor patriot of Pakistan. They take interest

and work for only elite class of Pakistan.

Research question:

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Does the investment in different health departments effect the employment in rural and urban

areas?

Objectives:

To know the relationship of investment on health sector, employment in rural and urban

areas.

To know the investment trend in health sector.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

To know the areas that needs more attention.

To know the department which creates more jobs in comparison with other health

divisions?

Significance:

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It will highlight the positive or negative relationship of investment in different health

departments and employment level. Policy makers can use it to make efficient policies that will

give maximum output by using minimum input. It will highlight the health departments that are

not getting proper attention of investors. It will also show that health investment in rural areas

is more beneficiary or in urban areas.

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Chapter # 2

Literature Review

Khalif Bile Mohammad, Assad hafeez & Sania Nishter (2007) in their study gives the detail of

investors and donors of health sector of Pakistan. According to them Pakistan’s per capita

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expenditure on health in 2004-05 is RS. 375 and contribution by donors and international

agencies is only RS.80 (US$1.3). ADB, WB, EU, GAVI, GFATM, USAID, MOH, MOPW

and DOH are major source of investment in health sector. They have invested in different long

term and short term projects of Maternal and child health, communicable diseases, health

system and planning and for budgetary support to MOH (ministry of health). Government of

Pakistan spent RS.240 billion on health during (1995-2005) out of which RS.66 billion spent

on non-developmental bill and RS.174 billion on developmental bills. Provincial government

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provides RS.185 billion and federal government provides RS.55 billion. According to their

research Pakistan’s population is increasing daya by day whereas income is not increasing

proportionally, health sector is unable to fulfill the needs of existent population efficiently, and

more investment i.e 50% 50% more investment every year till 2015 in health sector for is

needed to fulfill the gap between demand and supply of health services.

Abo ul Hassan, Shahnwaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sidra Khalil (2011) discuss the

relationship between health expenditures and poverty. To measure health status they used life

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expectancy as proxy. They conclude that increase in health efficiency will result in reduction

of poverty. Due to increased health facilities the day to day loss will be minimized, the

enrollment of students in educational institutions will be improved and hence it will provide

good economic growth as well.

Mohammad Akram & Faheem Jehangir Khan (2007) analyzes the behavior of public spending

on health in provinces. According to their analysis the government spending on health is

progressive in Punjab and Baluchistan and regressive in Sindh, NWFP and rural Punjab. The

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study indicates that poor can’t afford to avail better health facilities because of high cost of

services. . People of rural areas have to rely on primary health facilities only. All good

hospitals are in cities only. Also doctors don’t want to spend their time in rural areas for duty

due to unavailability of luxuries.

Haleema Masud (2011) said that in Pakistan health policy is not only related with benefits of

patriots of Pakistan, it is also treated as a political factor. Government designs health policy

for those people and areas from where they can get votes for election in their benefits. She

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

emphasized that health policy should be revised and made by analyzing the social and

individual benefits of health.

Faisal Abbas (2010) said that the life expectancy of women is lowest in Pakistan in

comparison of other developing countries and infant mortality rate is highest. Pakistan’s

elasticity of public health expenditure is negative in short run and less than one in long run.

Infant mortality rate will be reduced due to increase in income and life expectancy will

increase due to increase in income. He said that government should analyze human capital

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

formation and poverty reduction while making health policy. The supply of healthy food

should be available in every part of Pakistan to get better human capital with increased

productivity.

Babar Tasneem Shaikh, Arslan Mazhar, Shahzad Ali Khan & Assad Hafeez (2012) study tells

that healthcare facilities are very expensive in Pakistan due to which almost 150 million

people suffer from economic disaster and 100 million become poor due to health expenditures.

This problem predominately conquers in the resource constrained settings and Pakistan is one

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example where health financing options and social security contrivances for the households is

either non-existent or very limited. With a maternal mortality ratio of 278/100,000 live births,

contraceptive incidence rate of 29.6% and only 39% deliveries attended by the skilled birth

attendants, Pakistan ranks 65thin Gender Inequality Index with an overall Human Development

Index ranking of 125thover the last 3 years. Around 0.6% of GDP and least progressive

expenses on health have been incurred over the last two decades in Pakistan.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Dr. Talib Lashari (2005) tells that the country's overall social sector financing needs to be

mounted up further to make it alert to the real needs. Two major sources of the sponsoring i.e.

public and private sector are working in vertical directions with no connections in the areas of

financing and service delivery. According to assessments public sector provides 23 percent of

the total health expenditures while rest (77) comes from out-of-pocket expenses in the private

sector. Only one million of the population is protected through social insurance provided by

Employees Social Security association, while another 0.93 million people have heath

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

protection through PIA, Pakistan Railways, WAPDA, PTCL and Fauji Foundation. Besides,

public sector organizations, civil society is also contributing towards health of the population

through its limited resources. Organizations like Edhi Foundation, Aga Khan Foundation,

social marketing enterprises and others are providing healthcare to people in different parts of

the country. According to assessments Aga Khan Foundation, Save the Children (US) and

Saving Newborn Lives Initiative are running projects worth US$304.19 million. Al Shifa

Trust paid out RS. 1615 million during 1986-2004.The scenario that emerges from the above

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discussion makes it clear that the current rate of health financing is insufficient for the existing

needs of the population.

Muhammad Iqbal Afridi (2008) indicates that situation in Pakistan about improvement in

mental health services is not at the pace to reach a reasonable level. This important field of

health is not popular, as it should be if we relate it to some other medical and surgical

disciplines such as cardiology and ophthalmology etc. Bulk of the people have some

knowledge about hypertension, cholesterol, ECG and too often reveal and verbalize at length

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about their cardiac illness, which were formerly used to be a stigma or personal weakness.

Likewise using glasses were reflected to be a sign of old age until quite recently and their use

was avoided particularly by women in our country. At the other end, seeking help regarding

mental disorder is avoided. Even referring for sexual problem is considered debauched and is

an unthinkable. One cause behind this could be that the image concerning mental patients,

hospitals and related occupation and specialists e.g. psychologists, psychiatrists etc., is

portrayed in an awkward manner by the beginners in a few sections of Pakistan's mass media.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

It hardly helps the purpose of promoting mental health and, at times, leads to dishonesty and

caricature creating hatred about the subject. The incursion of TV channels accessible to

persons of all age and brackets with sometime unethical and non-authentic opinions needs

urgent attention. 

Abo ul Hassan, Shahnawaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sadia Khalil (2011) investigates

the effects of health status proxy by life expectancy and the expenditures on health along with

the leading socio-economic factors on the poverty levels proxy by head count ratio in

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Pakistan. Even though it is a well-documented fact that the health indicators in Pakistan have

been improved remarkably since its independence, yet its standing is still far behind among

the nations of the world. Again one can easily examine the ambiguity between the soaring rate

of funding in health sector and its outcomes. The dilemma a simple question whether the

expenditures on health alone for the facility of health services to the masses is adequate

enough to lessen poverty in Pakistan, or rather, if there are other socio-economic factors which

are decisive to alleviate poverty in Pakistan so far. The paper had applied the methods of least

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

squares to examine the relationship between poverty and health status in Pakistan. The study

builds strong relationship between health and poverty in Pakistan. The paper declares that

health is a significant determinant of economic performance and there exists a strong

relationship between poverty and measures of health. It has also argued that the key

improvements in health would cause immense economic gains. Thus, the idea is verified that

improved health status increases the human skill and earning capacity which eventually

reduces the poverty levels.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Faisal Sultan Qadri, Abdul Waheed (2011) in their study estimated the relationship between

human capital and economic growth by using time series data of Pakistan for the period 1978

to 2007. A health adjusted education pointer for human capital is used in the customary Cobb-

Douglas production function authorizes the long run positive affiliation between human

capital and the economic growth in Pakistan. A compassion study was also performed in order

to check the strength of the early findings. The assessment results supported the findings of

the former studies that human capital is positively related to growth and also that the results

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

are vigorous. The health accustomed education indicator was found to be a vastly significant

factor of economic growth, which shows that both the health and education sectors should be

given special attention in order to certify long run economic growth.

Pakistan: Country Gender Profile Study (2008), SDPI, indicates that the problems of health

cannot be looked in separation and broader parameters need to be developed to confirm

equality for women. The health facilities for the grassroots are over-burdened and the quality

of health services undergoes greatly. The public health care system undergoes as doctors wish

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to give services to the prosperous. The reliance of the Ministry of Health on donors in

applying international health policies and programs creates doubts regarding the amount and

stream of financial resources and distracts execution. High costs, fixity of women, limited

decision making and limited information are major obstacles in seeking appropriate health

care. Increased investment in the health sector with a clear aim to decrease the gender

inequality is a central element of the government’s agenda.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Dr Sania Nishtar (2007) said that public-private partnership should be increase in haelh sector

in order to enhance efficiency of health sector. She gave number of arrangements that can be

changed as a result of interfacing the roles, tasks and privileges of the public and private

sectors in traditional health systems. For instance, at a service delivery level, prime healthcare

services can be contracted out to the private sector, completely or in part; alternatively, the

public sector can also contract in private sector proficiency and risk-taking talent to achieve

health facilities. At a health financing level, the private sector can deliver substitutes to tax

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

revenues; for example, the private insurance industry can be a cause of finance for healthcare

in countries where the legally employed sector is leading; communities can donate to social

insurance pools, and individual charity can be channeled into social protection funds. At a

governance level the private sector can be symbolized on self-governing governance boards of

hospitals; whereas at a basic healthcare level, communities can be convoluted in institutional

decision making.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Samina T. Panwhar (2009) presented an analysis of policies related with child mortality in

Pakistan centering on problem structuring, using a contrast with Bangladesh. Pakistan’s

progress in child mortality rate has been much slower than that of Bangladesh in spite of the

fact that Pakistan has excelled in economic growth, and the two countries have equivalent

populations and share political history. A comparative study of policy documents studied for

the two countries explains the fact that Bangladesh, in framing its child health policy, has

highlighted the input factors such as nutrition and environmental aspects, in addition health

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services. Pakistan, on the other hand, retains a general problem origination strategy focusing

mainly on health service and disregarding the social, environmental, and other factors

producing morbidity and mortality in children.

Abdul Wali khan & Zahoor Khan (2006) said in their study that there is an increasing

tendency for the demand of such types of facilities i.e. hospitals, dispensaries, maternity and

child health centers, rural health center, TB center and BHUs & sub health center, therefore

the Government should take into consideration the increasing demand for these facilities. The

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government should focus on this issue and should increase the shares of budget allocated for

this end.

Asghar Reza & Suman Valeecha (2012) examined the influence of Structural Adjustment

Loans attained from world bodies on health conditions and concurrently on economic progress

of Pakistan, constructed on an econometric model. To test the association between such

programs, health indicators and economic growth, they used time series data for the period of

1980-81 to 2009-2010 and examined by conducting statistical tests. The empirical results

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confirm the hypothesis that there is no relationship between the two factors i.e. structural

adjustment loans do no contribute towards the enlargement of health conditions in Pakistan.

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Chapter # 3

Methodology

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:

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This study has been an attempt to find out the effect of investment in health on employment on

rural and urban areas in Pakistan.

RESEACH TYPE:

This is a quantitative research.

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POPULTION: Data about the investment in health sector and rural and urban employment

from year 1947 to 2012 is the population.

SAMPLE: To analyze the relationship of investment in health sector and rural and urban

employment 16.6% of population is taken as sample. Sample consists of most recent past years

that is 2001 to 2011 and consist of 11 values.

VARIABLES:

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Independent variable: hospital, dispensaries, maternal and child health centers, rural health

center, TB center and BHUs & sub health centers.

Dependent variable: rural employment, urban employment

Type of data:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Secondary data about number of hospitals (H), dispensaries (DS), BHUs and sub health centers

(BH), maternity and child health centers (MC), rural health centers (RH), TB centers (TC),

employment in rural and urban areas of Pakistan is gathered by economic survey of Pakistan.

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Hypothesis:

Null hypothesis

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

H0: Increased investment in building hospital, dispensaries, TB centers and maternal and child

health centers will increase employment in urban areas.

H1: investment in building rural health centers and BHUS and sub health centers will increase

employment in rural areas.

Alternative hypothesis:

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H1: Increased investment in building hospital, dispensaries, TB centers and maternal and child

health centers will decrease employment in urban areas.

H2: investment in building rural health centers and BHUS and sub health centers will decrease

employment in rural areas.

Model:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Simple linear regression model is used to check the relationship between dependent and

independent variable and OLS method is used due to its BLUE properties.

Y=β0+β2X+Ui

Above model is general form where X represents independent variables i.e. hospital,

dispensaries, BHUs and sub health centers, rural health centers, TB centers and maternal and

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

child health centers and Y represents dependent variables i.e. rural employment and urban

employment. E-view has been used to find regression lines.

Regression line for urban employment:

UE=β0+β1H+β2DS+β3MC+β4TC+Ui

Regression line for rural employment:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

RE= β0+β1RH+β2BH+Ui

Schematic Diagram:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Chapter # 4

Results and Discussion

Introductory Paragraph:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

We all know the general rule that investment in any sector creates jobs in the country. All sectors have different impact on employment some sectors creates more jobs than other. Here the impact of health investment is checked on urban and rural employment in Pakistan.

Urban employment and investment in health sector

Dependent Variable: UE

Method: Least Squares

Date: 12/14/12 Time: 14:25

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Sample: 2001 2011

Included observations: 11

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

C -58.70374 8.684251 -6.759793 0.0005

H 0.007199 0.021317 0.337697 0.7471

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

DS 0.006714 0.004282 1.567957 0.1679

MC 0.030012 0.009730 3.084436 0.0215

TC 0.026521 0.027060 0.980096 0.3649

R-squared 0.961062     Mean dependent var 14.32909

Adjusted R-squared 0.935104     S.D. dependent var 1.437264

S.E. of regression 0.366140     Akaike info criterion 1.131351

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Sum squared resid 0.804349     Schwarz criterion 1.312212

Log likelihood -1.222429     F-statistic 37.02300

Durbin-Watson stat 2.430672     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000229

Regression line for urban employment

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

UE= -58.70374+0.007199H+0.006714DS+0.030012MC+0.026521TC

It shows that by increasing one percent increase of Hospitals (H), dispensaries (DS), maternal

and child health centers (MC) and TB centers (TC) employment rate in urban areas will be

increased by 0.007199%, 0.006714%, 0.030012% and 0.026521% respectively. Although these

are minor values but in absence of investment in these departments employment rate in urban

areas will reduce by 58.70374% which will have negative impact on society. Investment in

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

establishment of maternal health & child health centers and hospitals is more beneficiary then

establishment of dispensaries and TB centers.

Rural employment and investment in health sector:

Dependent Variable: RE

Method: Least Squares

Date: 12/14/12 Time: 14:39

Sample: 2001 2011

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Included observations: 11

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

C -178.6400 122.2111 -1.461733 0.1820

RH 0.294242 0.096342 3.054160 0.0157

BH 0.008694 0.031054 0.279965 0.7866

R-squared 0.835293     Mean dependent var 32.68273

Adjusted R-squared 0.794116     S.D. dependent var 4.340712

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

S.E. of regression 1.969574     Akaike info criterion 4.420512

Sum squared resid 31.03376     Schwarz criterion 4.529029

Log likelihood -21.31282     F-statistic 20.28553

Durbin-Watson stat 1.297739     Prob(F-statistic) 0.000736

Regression line for rural employment:

RE= -178.6400+0.294242RH+0.008694BH

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

It shows that one percent increase in investment in rural health centers and BHUs and sub

health centers will increase the employment rate in rural areas by 0.294242% and 0.008694%

respectively and in absence of investment in these departments will reduce employment rate by

178.64%. Investment in establishing rural health centers is more beneficiary then establishing

BHUs and sub health sector.

Discussion:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

The data available about rural and urban employment was according to financial years, and

some values were missing. So for calculation I assumed that same trend will be for the missing

values. I used 11 observations in my project. The study shows that the overall impact of health

investment is positive since last 11 years but the investment in establishment of maternal &

child health center, hospitals and rural health center is not sufficient. The increase due to health

investment is negligible due to reduced investment. The main point is that if we stop investing

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

in health then we will lose large portion of employment i.e. 58% decrease in urban employment

and 178% decrease in rural employment.

The decrease is not negligible because if the investment in health is reduced then people will

remain sick and due to sickness absent ratio from jobs will be high. Thus employment will

reduce.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Chapter # 5

Recommendations and conclusion

Conclusion:

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

The increase in employment due to health investment is negligible but the decrease in

employment due to absence of health investment is not negligible. Rural areas are neglected.

Overall health investment have increasing trend but with small percentage change.

Recommendations:

On the basis of estimated values and past history of health departments I suggest that

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

More investment is needed in establishing hospitals, Maternal and child health care centers

and rural health centers because these are the areas which are being ignored in past 11

years.

Trend and statistical results also show that establishment of rural health centers increases

rural employment with more percentage than BHUs and sub health centers. Similarly

investment in maternal and child health center increases urban employment with more

percentage than hospitals, dispensaries and TB centers.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Practice in rural areas must be compulsory for all medical students for at least one year.

Incentive and bonus should be given to those doctors and medical staff that serve in rural

areas.

LIMITATIONS:

Proxy variables are used to measure health investment.

Repeated figures in rural and urban employment.

Ignorance of variables that effect health investment.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

Small sample.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

FUTURE GAP:

This study is just meant to discuss whether investment in health is beneficiary or not. It can

be explored further by incorporating more variables or by adopting a more sophisticated

econometric technique.

Identification of rural areas that need attention of ministry of health.

Find out the reasons due to which investment is not sufficient in health sector.

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Measuring effect of investment in health sector on employment in Pakistan

To find system which will increase efficiency of health sector?

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Pakistan, The Dialogue Volume V Number I,

docsfiles.com/pdf_health_indicators_pakistan_of.html.

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Abo ul Hassan, Shahnawaz Malik, Imran Sharif Chaudhry & Sadia Khalil (2011), Poverty-

Health Nexus: The Case of Pakistan, Middle Eastern Finance and Economics ISSN: 1450-

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Indicators on Pakistan – Econometric Analysis, INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF

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CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS VOL. 4 No 6, journal-

archieves24.webs.com/924-935.pdf.

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%201-Social%20protection.pdf

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Dr.Sania Nishtar (2007), The Commonwealth Health Ministers Book 2007,

www.sanianishtar.info/pdfs/ppp_commonwealth.pdf.

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%20Care%20Financing.pdf.

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Faisal Abbas (2010), Public health sector expenditures, health status and their role in

development of Pakistan, Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung,

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Haleema Masud (2011), Health Policy: What does it mean in Pakistan? Policy Actors’

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Appendix:

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YEAR Hospital (H) Dispensaries (DS)

BHUs and sub health centers (BH)

Maternity and child health center (MC)

Rural health(RH)

TB centers (TC)

2001 907 4625 5230 879 541 2722002 906 4590 5308 862 550 2852003 906 4554 5290 907 552 2892004 916 4582 5301 906 556 2892005 919 4632 5334 907 556 289

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2006 924 4712 5336 906 560 2882007 945 4755 5349 903 562 2902008 948 4794 5310 908 561 2932009 968 4813 5345 906 572 2932010 972 4842 5344 909 577 3042011 972 4842 5374 909 584 304

Source: Economic survey of Pakistan 2011-12

Employment by region and gender (million)

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Yearsemployed

ruralemployed

urban2001 26.66 12.222002 26.66 12.222003 28.81 13.192004 28.81 13.192005 32.49 14.462006 33.11 14.542007 34.48 14.612008 35.54 15.25

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2009 37.25 15.962010 37.85 15.992011 37.85 15.99

Source: Labor survey of Pakistan

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