Measuring Carbon Dioxide Measuring Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in Emissions Embodied in

ConsumptionConsumption

Paris, November Paris, November 20102010

Contact: nadim.ahmad@oecd.org

Overview

• Policy drivers: – Production versus Consumption (Supplementary index).

– Equity

Background – Where are we now?

• 40% increase in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2007.

• ¼ from OECD economies, but over half from China alone; whose emissions trebled over the period – partly in response to domestic demand but also for OECD consumers. – China’s share of US and Japanese imported goods up from 6.5

and 11% in 1995 to 15.5 and 21% in 2005. Much of this in products with high CO2 emissions.

• OECD’s trade balance fallen from broad balance in 1995 to $1.1 trillion deficit in 2005.

Methodology

• Objective – to allocate emissions (embodied) to final domestic consumption.

• Starting point: 3 global IO tables for 1995, 2000 and 2005 for 47 countries. – 95% of global GDP and 85% of emissions.

• And CO2 emissions by sector from the IEA

+32 OECD countries + 15 non-members(G20, BRIICS, ASEAN6,NAFTA,

accession countries, other EU members)

History 1995ed: 10 countries (1970-1990) 2002ed: 24 countries for mid90s 2006ed & current: mid90s-2005

Format Inter-industry transactions (48 sectors)

ISIC 3 harmonized classification Import &domestic inputs are separated

Database and sample indicators are available at OECD.Stat

www.oecd.org/sti/inputoutput

Global population coverage (64%,2005)

OECD Input-Output Database

CountryOriginal Source data

Actual tables used in the global OECD IO table

CountryOriginal Source data

Actual tables used in the global OECD IO table

mid90searly 2000s

mid 2000s

mid90searly 2000s

mid 2000s

mid90searly 2000s

mid 2000s

mid90searly 2000s

mid 2000s

Australia 1994/95 2001/02 2004/05 1994 2001 2004 Poland 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Austria 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Portugal 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Belgium1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Slovak Republic

1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Canada 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Slovenia 1996 2000 2005 1996 2000 2005

Czech Republic

1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Spain 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Chile 1996 na 2003 1996 2000 2005 Sweden 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Denmark 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Switzerland na 2001 na 1995 2000 2005

Estonia 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Turkey 1996 1998 2002 1996 2000 2005

Finland1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

United Kingdom

1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

France 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 United States 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Germany 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Argentina 1997 na na 1995 2000 2005

Greece 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Brazil 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Hungary 1998 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 China 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Ireland 1998 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Chinese Taipei 1996 2001 2006 1996 2001 2006

Israel 1995 na 2004 1995 2000 2004 India 1993/94 1998/99 2006/07 1993/94 1998/99 2006/07

Italy 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Indonesia 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Japan 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Malaysia 1995 2000 na 1995 2000 2005

Korea 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Philippines 1995 2000 na 1995 2000 2005

Luxembourg 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Romania na 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Mexico na na 2003 1995 2000 2005 Russia 1995 2000 na 1995 2000 2005

Netherlands 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Singapore 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

New Zealand 1995/96 2002/03 na 1995/96 2000 2005 South Africa 1993 2000 2005 1993 2000 2005

Norway 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 Thailand 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

              Viet Nam na 2000 na 1995 2000 2005

Methodology• Very simple approach:

DAIE 1

A1 M21 M31 M41 M51

M12 A2 M32 M42 M52

M13 M23 A3 M43 M53

M14 M24 M34 A4 M54

M15 M25 M35 M45 A5

Imported emissions embodied in final consumption-% of total consumption

CO2 emissions from domestic consumption and production – Mt

US per capita emissions from production 5 *

China’s in 2005 but 6 * higher with consumption

Trade balance in CO2 emissions (domestic production minus domestic consumption)

percentage of global emissions 1995 - 2005

Perspective: Higher than total emissions in Germany and growth in deficit between 1995

and 2005 equal to another UK

CO2 emissions: tonnes per capita - domestic production and domestic consumption

No change in per capita emissions in production between 2000 and 2005 but

2% increase in emissions embodied

in consumption

Difference in consumption and

Production = 30% of per

capita emissions in R.O.W

Not just a question of Trade surplus/deficits either:Trade in goods balances and CO2 balances (2005)

China: Emissions from China embodied in imports: % of total consumption

Per capita Changes in Domestic Consumption of CO2 emissions broken down by emission source between 1995 and 2005

Emissions embodied in HHFC: Mt per capita, 2005

CO2 emissions in Households per unit of Household disposable constant 2000 PPPs, Mt CO2,

On-going work• Emissions from unallocated autoproducers

• Emissions from the rest of the world

• Conceptual challenges relating to emissions embodied in investment and inventories. Focus on final consumption (households and government).

• Projection into recent years and back to 1990.