Measures of Association and Impact
description
Transcript of Measures of Association and Impact
Measures of Associationand Impact
Michael O’Reilly, MD, MPH
FETP Thailand
Introductory Course
Objectives
• Describe and calculate measures ofassociation such as risk ratio and oddsratio, and describe when use each
• Describe and calculate measures ofpublic health impact such asattributable risk percent and populationattributable risk percent
Example for calculations: NHANES follow-up study
Original enrollment 1971 – 1975
Follow-up 1982 – 1984
• Complete follow-up on:- 189 diabetic men- 3151 nondiabetic men- 218 diabetic women- 3823 nondiabetic women
Participants aged 40-77 years at enrollment
Ref: Kleinman J, et al. Mortality among diabetics in anational sample. AJE 1988; 128:389-401
Risk
# new cases during a specified periodsize of population at start of period
= "Attack rate"= Probability of getting disease= Risk of disease= Cumulative incidence= Incidence proportion
Example of Risk Calculation
1.Deaths in diabetic men
100 deaths189 men at start of follow-up period
2. Deaths in nondiabetic men
811 deaths3151 men at start of follow-up period
Example of Risk Calculation
1.Deaths in diabetic men
100 deaths189 men at start of follow-up period
Risk = 100/189 = 52.9%
Example of Risk Calculation
2. Deaths in nondiabetic men
811 deaths3151 men at start of follow-up period
Risk = 811/3151 = 25.7%
Person-Time Rate# new cases during follow-up period
# person-years of follow-up
new cases during follow-up periodsum of the lengths of time each member of the population was at risk of disease
= instantaneous incidence rate= Incidence density= "Person-time rate"
Denominator of P-T Rate
In a cohort (follow-up) study, follow each person until:
• Onset of disease • Death • Loss to follow-up • End of studyAdd up the time each person was
followed
P-T Rate – Example
Deaths in diabetic menIf all enrolled in 1971, and if no deaths, and if all had
been followed through 1984, denominator is: 189 × 13 = 2457 Person Years
But some were enrolled 1972 - 1975, 100 died, & some were followed to 1982 or 1983. True denominator is:
1414.7 Person Years
Rate = 100 / 1414.7 PY= 70.7 deaths / 1,000 PY
(False rate 40.7 deaths/ 1,000 PY)
Odds
Odds in favor of an event =
probability that event will occur
probability that event will NOT occur
Odds of disease =
probability of disease
1 - probability of disease
or, more simply,
disease odds = # ill / # well
Example of an Odds Calculation
Deaths in diabetic men100 deaths189 men at start of follow-up periodProbability of death = 100/189 = 52.9%Odds = probability of dying / probability of not
dying= 0.529 / (1 - 0.529) = 0.529 / 0.471= 1.1:1Odds = # deaths / # survivors= 100 / 89= 1.1:1
Example of an Odds Calculation
Odds of diabetes among men who died100 deaths among diabetics811 deaths among non-diabeticsProb. of diabetes = 100 / 911 = 0.110 =
11.0%
ODDS = prob. of diabetes / prob. of non-diabetes
= 0.110 / (1 - 0.110) = 0.110 / 0.890= 1.23:1
"Every epidemiologic studycan be summarized in a 2-by-2 table."
- H. Ory
Two-by-Two Tables
Ill Well Total Risk
Exposed a b H1 a/H1
Not exp c d H2 c/H2
Total V1 V2 T or N
Mortality Among White Men, by Diabetic Status,
NHANES Follow-up Study, 1982-1984
Dead Alive Total Risk
Diabetic 100 89 189 52.9%
Not 811 2340 3151 25.7%
diabetic
Total 911 2429 3340 27.3%
Measures of Association
Quantify the relationship between an"exposure" and outcome of interest
Quantify the difference in occurrence of disease or death between two groups of people who differ on "exposure“
Types of measures:−Ratios: relative risk, rate ratio, odds ratio−Difference: attributable risk
Risk Ratio / Relative Risk
Risk in "exposed" groupRisk in "unexposed" group
EXAMPLE:Relative risk of death among diabetic men vs. nondiabetic men
RR: ?
Mortality Among White Men, by Diabetic Status,
NHANES Follow-up Study, 1982-1984
Dead Alive Total Risk
Diabetic 100 89 189 52.9%
Not 811 2340 3151 25.7%
diabetic
Total 911 2429 3340 27.3%
Risk Ratio / Relative Risk
Risk in "exposed" groupRisk in "unexposed" group
EXAMPLE:Relative risk of death among diabetic men vs. nondiabetic men
RR: 100/189 .257 811/3151 .529
= 2.1
Risk Ratio / Relative Risk
Risk in "exposed" groupRisk in "unexposed" group
EXAMPLE:Relative risk of illness for those who ate food A vs. those who did not eat food A
RR: ?
Risk Ratio / Relative Risk
EXAMPLE:Relative risk of illness for those who ate food A vs. those who did not eat food A
RR:
.80
.14
= 5.7
Questions about Risk Ratio
Risk in "exposed" group
Risk in "unexposed" group
• What does RR > 1 mean?• What does RR = 1 mean?• What does RR < 1 mean?
Comments about Risk Ratio
• The further away from 1, the stronger the association between exposure and disease
• Can only calculate Risk Ratio from cohort study
Rate Ratio for P-T Rates
Person-time rate in "exposed" groupPT rate in "unexposed" group
Example:Death rate ratio among diabetic men vs. nondiabetic men
RR =100/1414.7 =70.7/1000 = 2.5 811/28,029.8 =28.9/1000
Comments about Rate Ratio
The further away from 1, the stronger the association between exposure and disease
Can only calculate Rate Ratio from follow-up cohort study
Odds Ratio: General
If you are not using cohort study data,
then relative risk is not obtainable
Under certain circumstances, odds ratios are good estimates of the relative risk
Odds Ratio
FORMULA 1 (“Disease Odds Ratio”):
Odds of disease/death in “exposed” groupOdds of dz/death in “unexposed” group
FORMULA 2 (“Exposure Odds Ratio”):
Odds of being "exposed" among casesOdds of "exposed" among non-cases
Disease Odds Ratio
Dead Alive Odds of disease
Diabetic 100 89 100/89
Not 811 2340 811/2340
Total 911 2429
Using formula 1:
OR 100/89 = 100 x 2340 = 3.2
811/2340 89 x 811
Exposure Odds Ratio
Dead Alive
Diabetic 100 89
Not 811 2340
Odds of 100/811 89/2340
Exposure
Using formula 2:
OR 100/811 = 100 x 2340 = 3.2
89/2340 89 x 811
When Can the Odds Ratio be used to approximate the Relative Risk?
Ill Well Total Risk
Exposed a b a + b a/a + b
Not exp c d c + d c/c + d
RR = a/a+b ≈ a/b ≈ ad
c/c+d c/d bc
For a rare disease, a <<< b, so a+b ≈ b c <<< d, so c+d ≈ d
Example of the “Rare Disease” Assumption?
Ill Well Total Risk
Exposed a b a + b a/a + b
Not exp c d c + d c/c + d
RR = a/a+b ≈ a/b ≈ ad
c/c+d c/d bc
For a rare disease, a <<< b, so a+b ≈ b c <<< d, so c+d ≈ d