MDG Monitoring Workshop

National Statistical OfficeRepublic of Armenia

8 -11 November 2010, Geneva, Switzerland

Ðì SA

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger2. Achieve universal primary education3. Promote gender equality and empowerwomen4. Reduce child mortality5. Improve maternal health6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases7. Ensure environmental sustainability8. Develop a global partnership for development

Status of MDG Indicators 48 MDG indicators 36 MDG indicators in Armenia in 2009, of

which 16 are compiled by administrative registers 20 are compiled by NSO

Data Sources and Collection Methods Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2001 census (next census due in 201) National Statistical Office of Armenia (NSO) Administrative registers (AR)

Goal 4. Reduce child mortality Target 5. Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the

under-five mortality rate Armenia

Indicators 1996 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2009 Source

13. Under-five mortality rate expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births

19.9 19.3

39.0

36

18.8 16.6 13.6 13.0 13.730.0

27

15.5 12.3 12.1

23

11.7 NSO

Demographic and Health Survey – 2000, 2005

UNICEF data

14. Infant mortality rate expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births

15.5 15.6

36.1

32

15.4 14.0 12.0 11.6 12.326.0

24

13.9 10.9 10.8

21

10.4 АР

Demographic and Health Survey – 2000, 2005

UNICEF data

Potential discrepancies between national and international data

The discrepancies between national (as per current statistics and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) and international estimates of infant (0-1 years) and child (0-4 years) mortality rates are mainly due to:

Different data sources and collection methods, as well as different estimation methods:

Quarterly published statistics are based on permanent administrative records

DHS conducted every 5 years is sample-based (95% estimated confidence interval)

Published at least once a year international estimates are based on estimation by experimental hypotheses method using mathematical instruments and regression analysis

Time

Timeliness

Quality Integrity Usability1

(uses)

Short-term

Short period of time

Low Incomplete Only for trends for prompt decisions

Medium-term

Medium period of time

Medium Medium For decision-making

Long-term

Less relevant

High Complete For analysis

Characteristics of interrelation among timeliness, quality, integrity and usability of data from various sources, based on different collection methods and compilation methods

1. Statistics are coherent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time – Principle 14 – Coherence and Comparability (European Statistics Code of Practice, endorsed on 24.02.2005 by the Statistical Programme Committee (Brussels, 25.05.2005. COM(2005)217)

Quality Issues of Current Statistics Based on Administrative Register1. Prior to 2005 there were differences in the definitions of

‘live birth’ applied in Armenian administrative register and by WHO:

Infants who weighed less than 1,000 gram (500-999 gram) at the time of birth and died during the first week of life were not registered by administrative register as infant deaths, whereas according to WHO and DHS definitions these cases were registered as deaths (starting from 16 October 2005, administrative register shifted to registering deaths as per WHO definition).

Cont.2. The regulations and legislative instruments applied by the

administrative register (Vital Registration Offices under Armenian Ministry of Justice) have limitations resulting in underregistration:

In some cases infant deaths registered by health facilities were not registered by Vital Registration Offices (administrative register)

If an infant was born and died at home, such deaths were not registered by either health facilities or by Vital Registration Offices (unless parents approached the administrative register) or a death of an infant who was born in a health facility but died at home may also be not registered (as a rule, health facility birth and death data exceed the administrative register data by 50- 100 cases per annum).

Cont. 3. Cases of incorrect reports on stillbirths by heath personnel

(deliberate and non-deliberate). Thus, a survey conducted by Armenian MH and UNICEF in 2002 demonstrated that in medical certificates of death issued by health personnel such columns as ‘live birth’, ‘infant death’, ‘stillbirth’ were fulfilled according to the old classification, when a fetus was classified as dead if it did not breathe even if showed other evidence of life.

DHS Data Quality Issues Household surveys are essential to the calculation of the infant and

child mortality indicators, but there are some limits to their quality. Survey data are subject to recall error; in addition, surveys estimating

under-five deaths require large samples because such incidences are uncommon. Moreover, the frequency of the survey is generally only every three to five years. Therefore, when using household surveys it is important to take sampling errors into account.

______________________________________________________ Indicators for Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals Handbook, United Nations, 2003.

International Estimates Quality Issues Though international estimates seek to improve the quality of data obtained

from administrative registers and sample surveys, they are also mostly based on the same sources but with regard to the known shortcomings thereof

Partially they are also based on sample focus groups which have shortcomings similar to sample surveys, especially for such sensitive phenomenon as child mortality

Expert hypotheses, especially for child mortality, are highly vulnerable depending on what extent such hypotheses take into account economic, social, demographic, environmental, administrative, geographic, national, regional and global structural and trend factors affecting respondents’ behaviour

Improving Data Availability Armenia has improved data availability through such focus surveys as

Integrated Living Conditions Survey, Labour Force Survey, Demographic and Health Survey, Time Use Survey, supported by international organizations and donors.

NSO has actively worked with administrative registers, supported establishment of new administrative registers (e.g. Armenian Ministry of Environmental Protection and Ministry of Agriculture) and improvement of existing registers (coverage expansion, methodological issues), assisted in the interrelation of different registers, particularly, in the development of common identification code and classifications.

Pro-actively participated in MDG seminars and workshops. Placed a table with MDG Indicators in Armenia at the main page of the

Web site in 2008.

Progress in MDGs NSO together with UNICEF, UN Development Programme and

UNFPA is implementing project ‘Capacity Building of Government Partners for ArmeniaInfo Involvement’ at the national and provincial level for monitoring and reporting on MDGs and Sustainable Development Programme.

Programme objective is to present Armenian’s MDG indicators in the format of ArmeniaInfo database that will be accessible to all users.

MDG Indicators database was developed following the format of DevInfo, updated for 1999-2008 data and placed at www.devinfo.info.

DevInfo 6.0/ArmeniaInfo database was developed by NSO and placed at www.armdevinfo.am in 2010 (in Armenian and English).

Cont. NSO received all necessary hardware and software for

designing www.armdevinfo.am 21-26 June 2010 – a delegation of 11 persons, including 8

users from Armenian Regional Administration Ministry, Ministry of Labour and Social Issues and UNICEF, made a training tour to Serbia.

Training Courses 1-8 June 2009 – training course in DevInfo 6.0 User & Database

Administration

30 trainees from NSO and other government agencies as key users:

- Armenian Ministry of Economy - Armenian Regional Administration Ministry

- Armenian Emergency Ministry - Armenian Ministry of Labour and Social Issues

26-30 June 2009 - training course in DevInfo 6.0 User & Database Administration for NSO’s provincial agencies.

18-22 October 2010 – Training of Trainers (ToT) in DevInfo 6.0 User/Database/Administration Modules.

Issues Quality of administrative registers Lack of community-level administrative registers Lack of resources, especially at provincial level:

human, financial and technical resources Lack of Internet connection for accessing

databases at provincial level

Challenges To generate data sources (particularly, to generate community-level administrative registers) To review and use alternative estimates and data sources To provide disaggregated data at the national and subnational levels To evaluate data quality, to overcome shortcomings and data discrepancies To build statistical capacity To improve methods of estimation, collection and dissemination of MDG indicators To enhance knowledge of MDGs generators and users, to train data users To prepare and publish usage instructions for Devinfo in Armenian To arrange further training in usage of Devinfo at provincial level To provide hardware and software to provincial statistical agencies To maintain database management in NSO headquarters and provincial statistical agencies To improve coordination between national agencies and international organizations, between

countries and international organizations and among international organizations To intensify international cooperation in the compilation and dissemination of MDG indicators

NSO’s Strategy To build NSO’s capacity for producing and disseminating data for MDG

monitoring and reporting To expand and regularly update MDG indicators database at

www.armdevinfo.am To create and disseminate MDG indicators database at provincial level To present indicators of Armenian Social Situation and Poverty Report in

DevInfo format (subject to support availability) To present TRANSMONEE indicators DevInfo format (subject to support

availability) To support development of other required sets of indicators, databases in

DevInfo format together with national partners and international organizations

To intensify collaboration with administrative registers To perform activities to generate other respondents

Library and Internet Library contains all statistical outputs of Armenian NSO,

statistical publications of other countries and international organizations, methodological manuals, textbooks, legal documents, etc.

Statistical Library is open to the public. Electronic catalogue of the library can be accessed through

the Internet.

Thank you

National Statistical Office

Republic of Armenia

Yerevan, 0010, Republic Ave., House of Government 3

Fax: (37410) 521 921

E-mail: info@armstat.am; armstat@sci.amHomepage: http://www.armstat.am; www.armstat.info; www.armdevinfo.am