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Welcome

Please sit wherever you would like

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Word on the street is you been askin’ a

lotta questions about LMI…

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LMI.. What you should know

Presented by…. Bill McNeece

MS Dept of Employment Security

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LMI

LMI

What is it?Where does it come

from?How can you use it?

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One Popular Opinion

LLMMII

argely

ade Up

nformation

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But, seriously, folks …

What is it

—

Really?

What is it

—

Really?

LLMMII

abor

arketnformation

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The Textbook Definition

A dynamic and systematic

approach to workforce data —

designed to meet the changing

needs of our customers.

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In Layman’s Terms

Or, to put it more simply …

Basically, it’s any data or analysis that relates to the workforce.

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LMI ????????????

Unfortunately, you do

LMI data is the gas that fuels the ALMIS Data Base

engine

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What’s our goal today?

To help YOU…. Navigate thru the LMI Lingo

Understand the Data Sources

Avoid Heartburn and Keep Your Sanity

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Your Training Modules Today:

Learning the Lingo

Who Makes this Stuff Up?

Avoiding Heartburn

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Ready to get started?

Let’s take a look at the first module

the

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Feel Bombarded with Acronyms?

Americans DO love their acronyms!

But sometimes it makes things hard to understand

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Did you know?

Acronym is actually an ACRONYM itself!Abbreviations

Created

Routinely

Once every

New

York

Minute

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Before we get very far

We need to wade through some Alphabet Soup so you won’t think I’m speaking a foreign language

These are some common acronyms tossed around in LMI

circles

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Alphabet Soup

BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis

BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics

CPI = Consumer Price Index

CES = Current Employment Statistics

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Alphabet Soup

CPS = Current Population Survey

ECI = Employer Cost Index

ETA = Employment & Training Administration

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Alphabet Soup

LAUS = Local Area Unemployment Statistics

LMA = Labor Market Area

MLS= Mass Layoff Statistics

MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area

NAICS = North American Industry Classification System

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Alphabet Soup

OES= Occupational Employment Statistics

PPI = Producers Price Index

SIC = Standard Industry Classification

SOC = Standard Occupational Classification

QCEW = Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

(a.k.a ES 202)

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Alphabet Soup

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LMI Lingo

Must crawl before we walk

We’ll start with some basic terms and concepts

In other words, all you wanted to know but were afraid to ask

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Labor Force Terms & Concepts

EmployedWorked at least one hour for payDuring the week that includes the 12th

Unemployed No job attachmentAvailable for work & actively

seeking itCan be experienced or

a new or re-entrant

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This employment tallies workers whose wages have been “covered” for UI purposes (i.e., the employer paid unemployment insurance on the

wages paid to the individual)

Used only in QCEW data

Covered Employment

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An estimate or count of employment based on the location of the job regardless of the worker’s residence

Also called Nonag Wage and Salary or Nonfarm Employment

This counts jobs, not people Used in QCEW, OES and CES data

EmploymentPlace of work

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An estimate of employment based on where the employee lives, rather than where they work

This is a count of people not jobs

Used in calculating the labor force

Used only in LAUS data

EmploymentPlace of Residence

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Labor Force Terms & Concepts

Civilian Labor Force 16+ years old Employed + Unemployed Does NOT include military personnel

Unemployment rate Unemployed ÷ Labor Force

Expressed as %

Labor Force Participation rate Labor Force ÷ Working Age Population

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Labor Force Terms & Concepts

Labor Market Area

Groups of counties that encompass the county of residence and the county of work.

Defined by:

Commuting patterns The behavior of

individuals included in American Community Survey, Census and UI claims data when compared to other data.

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This pertains to the actual wages earned by persons working for a “covered” employer

In other words, someone for whom unemployment tax has been paid

Used only in QCEW data

Covered Wages

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Benchmark

Establishing a new reference point, from which estimates are

calculated and/or revised, based on last known data.

Very similar to the census process

Only LAUS & CES do this

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Coding Systems

Why code data?

Why revise coding structures?

Types of coding: Geography Industry Occupation

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Objectives of Coding Systems

Often designed to meet specific labor program needs

Ideally, a single system would meet all programmatic needs

Updating should be timely and cost-effective

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Geographic Coding Systems

Only one major system in common usage:

FIPS – Federal Information Processing System Developed by U.S. Office of Management and Budget

(OMB) Commonly used by almost all federal and local agencies Consists of codes for states, MSA’s, counties and cities,

townships, etc. Some GIS software applications use FIPS

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Industry Coding Systems

Types: Standard Industrial

Classification (SIC) North American

Industrial Classification System (NAICS)

Shifting from SIC to NAICS Conversion now

complete Benefits Program impacts

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WHY NAICS?

Six-digit system, instead of four

Instead of 10 major industry groups, there are 20 industrial sectors.

More consistent with other international systems and other classification systems used by BEA.

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Occupational Coding Systems

DOT — Dictionary of Occupational Titles Phased out in 2002 – 2003

OES — Occupational Employment StatisticsSOC — Standard Occupational Code

O*NET — Occupational Information Network

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LMI Lingo

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Next on our agenda is…

Who makes this stuff up?

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Just where do the numbers come from?

Mostly from BLS

programs

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Just who or what IS BLS?Just who or what IS BLS?

Contrary to popular opinion, they are NOT the Bureau of Lying Sapsuckers!

In reality, they are the BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, an arm of the US Department of Labor

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As states, why are we As states, why are we involved with a Federal involved with a Federal agency?agency?

They operate what is known as the Federal/State Cooperative Programs

Under these, they provide the funding for our base statistical programs

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Historical BackgroundHistorical Background

BLS has been around in one form or another for over a hundred years.

However, they only took control over the LMI programs in the mid-1970’s

They provide both funding and technical support

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LMI Produces lots of different LMI Produces lots of different

stuffstuff

Does BLS control ALL our LMI programs?

Not in most states. They are only

responsible for FIVE basic statistical

programs. Anything else is funded and controlled by some

other entity

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Which five does BLS Which five does BLS control?control?

QCEW CES LAUS OES MLS

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There you go with There you go with the acronyms again!the acronyms again!

In plain English, tell me what those stand for

And while you’re at it, tell me a little bit about each of them

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Okay, let’s begin with QCEWOkay, let’s begin with QCEW

It’s official name is the Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

It’s commonly called ES 202 because the original report it was required to produce was Employment Security Report Number 202

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What exactly does the What exactly does the QCEW program produce?QCEW program produce?

Detailed quarterly employment and payroll information for all employers covered under UI law.

Annual information on changes in industry codes that occur during the year

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Data Sources for QCEW

UI quarterly contribution reports

UCFE federal agency employment reports

Comes to ALMIS DB via EQUI report

Supplementary employer surveys by state LMI offices

Multiple establishment detail (MWR)

Industrial coding (annual refile survey)

Follow-ups triggered by edits

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How does QCEW How does QCEW differ from other differ from other programs?programs?

Unlike LAUS, QCEW counts JOBS not PEOPLE

Jobs are counted at the work site

It’s the only program that lists total wages paid

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Uses of QCEW Data Employment

benchmark for all BLS federal/state employer survey programs — CES, OES & OSHA

Critical for Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal income State and national

domestic product

Local planning Only consistent

source of county employment and wages by industry

Any employment analysis requiring detailed data

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QCEW Limitations & Changes

Some employment for large firms may be reported in the wrong areas (MWR’s)

Some firms report total number of employees in a quarter as employment for each month

QCEW is not a time series No wedging of changes by industry or area

from:Annual refile surveyChanges in multi-establishment reporting

Shift to NAICS — Break in series

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QCEW Chronology

Data files produced QUARTERLY

Once completed they are NOT revised

Changes in industry designation only done ANNUALLY

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QCEW

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Next on the agenda …

Which stands for: Current Employment Statistics

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What is it? What is it?

The Current Employment Statistics program is a monthly employer survey conducted by the states in cooperation with BLS.

The survey provides a sample from which estimates of employment, hours and earnings by industry group are calculated

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What does it produce?What does it produce?

Today, the CES program produces employment, hours and earnings estimates for all states and MSA’s.

It is the largest survey of its kind, with a nationwide sample of over 400,000 firms!

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Coverage Differences Between CES & QCEW

The following categories of workers are included in CES estimates but not in QCEWFull commission salespersons

Elected and appointed government officials

Teachers in summer months who are paid on 12-month contracts

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CES Limitations & Changes

Sample size limits state & area industry detail

Sum of states’ employment does not equal national total

Estimates for many sub-state areas are not funded

Though accuracy exceeds that of other economic data, benchmark revisions still cause criticism

Earnings are for production workers & not available for many state industries

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CES Chronology

Data produced MONTHLY

Current month is PRELIMINARY, previous month is REVISED

Entire calendar year data set is benchmarked and revised ANNUALLY

Benchmark revisions include prior year, also

Hours and earnings data are revised monthly but NOT BENCHMARKED

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Current Employment Statistics

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Moving right along …

We come to

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Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

An annual employer survey which produces employment and wage-rate estimates by occupation and industry for states and areas

Program began in 1971 in 15 states with BLS and ETA sharing responsibility with the states

When BLS took total federal responsibility for the program, all 50 states began to participate

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OES

In 1996, the following changes were made:

Sample increased to be the largest of any employer survey

Wage rates were added for all states & sub-state areas

All industries surveyed each year, rather than every 3rd year

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OES Staffing Estimates

Employment by occupation is tallied for each industry sector

Staffing ratios are developed representing each occupation’s share of each industry sector’s employment

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OES Wage Rate Estimates

Data tallied by wage ranges

Wage-rate averages generated using weighted system of averaging

Prior-year data “aged” using the Employer Cost Index

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OES Limitations

Since it is voluntary, low response rates can make it less reliable in some industry sectors

Estimates for sub-state areas dependent on sample size and response rates

Wages are tallied by range

Sample size limits state & area industry detail in many cases

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Occupational Employment Statistics

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State and Area Occupational Projections

A very important byproduct of the OES data

NOT a BLS funded project

Money comes from Employment & Training Administration…another branch of the US Department of Labor

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State & Area Occupational Projections

Produces both the INDPRJ and IOMATRIX data sets

Short-term — up to 2 years

Long-term — roughly 10 years

In some states unit may also be responsible for occupational wage data

Substate areas vary widely from state to state

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Projections Chronology

New data sets now released twice a year

Short term and long term projections not necessarily released at same time

Release times vary widely from state to state

Data are not subject to benchmark revisions

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The fourth BLS program is

which stands for ________________________________Local Area Unemployment Statistics

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Just what is LAUS?Just what is LAUS?

The name can be misleading since it deals with more than just unemployment data, such as the often-quoted unemployment rate.

The Local Area Unemployment Statistics program is a multi-layered process that produces labor force, employed and unemployed estimates by place of residence

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What does the LAUS What does the LAUS program produce?program produce?

Estimates of total civilian labor force, employed, unemployed and unemployment rate for all states, MSA’s, counties, and other similar areas, adjusted to place of residence

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Betcha didn’t know…

Estimation method varies depending on the type of geography

U.S. data comes directly from the monthly Current Population Survey

Statewide data (since 1986) comes from a regression model developed by BLS

County level data are apportioned out of the statewide data using a handbook method

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Why do methods vary?

CPS allows for more detailed information at the national level, such as data by gender, race, age group, etc.

CPS was used for larger states at one time, but trend was erratic and regression model was instituted in late 1980’s

Regression models are not reliable for smaller areas, such as counties and cities

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Sub-state LAUS Estimates

Handbook method used to apportion out county level estimates from statewide totals

Population-claims method used where possible for estimates of larger cities

Census-share method used for smaller cities and sub-county estimates when claims data are not available

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How do LAUS estimates How do LAUS estimates differ from others?differ from others?

Includes agricultural workers, self employed and others excluded by CES & QCEW

CES & QCEW estimate JOBS at work site; LAUS estimates PEOPLE at place of residence

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LAUS Limitations

Limited statistical measures of reliability

Handbook methodology assumes local areas follow national trends

Estimates for employment are probably more accurate than for unemployment

No detailed data, such as gender, age, etc.

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LAUS Chronology

Data produced monthly

Current month is PRELIMINARY, previous month is REVISED

Entire calendar year data set is benchmarked and revised ANNUALLY

Benchmark revisions may include prior years, also

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Local Area Unemployment Statistics

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Last (but not necessarily least)

we come to

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Mass Layoff Statistics

Began life as PMLPC in the early 80’s

Intent was to track serious layoffs and closings by industry using UI claims dataNot very useful for Rapid Response

Good post-occurrence analytical tool

Many states don’t have enough activity to publish data

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BLS Programs

Okay…..That covers the BLS generated stuff…..

What about all the other data sets in the ALMIS DB?

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“Other” data sets

Occupational licensing data – Sources vary by state

Census data (www.census.gov)Most can be downloaded in Excel format

State data center can be helpful

Training provider and completer data –Sources vary by state

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“Other” data sets

Income data – downloadable from BEA web site.

Crosswalk tables – Direct from National Crosswalk Data Center in Iowa

Employer database – provided via contract with InfoUSA – updates automatic

URL links to other states

Okay… I dig the data now, but how do I keep it all straight without going postal and doing something crazy?

Fair question...

and it leads to our last module…..

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Top Three Tips

1) Get a handle on Benchmarking procedures

2) Understand the data flow

3) Understand the BLS vs ETA issues

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To elaborate...Know the timing of data sets

from BLSKnow who provides, when and

in what formatDon’t be blind-sided by

revisions

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Benchmarking

Know the time frame for benchmarking for CES and LAUS

Understand the scopeDouble check data to insure it

is the most current benchmark

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BLS vs ETARealize they don’t like each

other very muchUnderstand the ‘turf wars’Don’t expect them to cooperate

and make your life easier

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Almost done

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Th-th-th-that’s all Th-th-th-that’s all folks!folks!

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Applause !!

For further assistance contact:

Bill McNeece – Special Projects

LMI Department - MS Department of Employment Security

Phone: 601 321 6249

E-mail: bmcneece@mdes.ms.gov

NO EXTRA CHARGE !!