MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building
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Transcript of MD Vision Quest: Scenario Building
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Scenarios: Very Serious Fiction
1950’s
•Developed by RAND for U.S. Military
•World War III
1960’s
•Modified as business tool by Herman Kahn
•Doomsday Machine & Cold War
Today
•University of Houston Clear Lake
•Kiski area schools in Pittsburgh
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Why Build Scenarios
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How to Build Scenarios: The Process
Identify2
ProduceReduce
Match
Create
Select
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How to Build Scenarios: Perspectives
Miracle Optimistic Status Quo Pessimistic Disaster
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How to Build Scenarios: Methods
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Other Methods: Fortunately / Unfortunately
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Other Methods: Scenario Construction for Forecasting
Figure 2: The Process of Scenario Formulation, p. 40. Forge, Blackman, Bohlin.
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Preparing to PracticeClaim your space and use the text tool to share one library trend that you brought with you
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Breakout Group Recap
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Limitations to Scenario Building