Mcw national assessment october 25 2012

National Polling AssessmentOctober 25 2012

53%53%Wrong TrackWrong Track

Right Direction/Wrong Track:

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Just over half of voters believe we’re on the wrong track…

Mercury. 2

CBS News poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1383 LVs, MoE = ± 3%

49%49%ApproveApprove

Obama Job ApprovalHow would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president: Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

…and Obama’s approval rating is at or near 50%...

Mercury. 3

NBC/WSJ poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%

52%52%FavorableFavorable

(net +6)(net +6)

Obama FavorableIs your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

…while his favorability edge over Romney…

Mercury. 4

ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3%


(net +3)(net +3)

Romney Favorable

…has disappeared in the last month of the campaign.

Mercury. 5

Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3%

RCP Average

Mitt Romney has a narrow lead in national polling…

Mercury. 6

47.147.1 -- 47.747.7

Source: RealClearPolitics.com

Recent Polls

Source: RealClearPolitics.com

Source: Gallup.com

Intrade: Obama Re-Election

…though markets still favor Obama. Why the disparity?

Mercury. 7

59.7%59.7%October 25October 25

Electoral College OutlookElectoral College Outlook

Because Romney faces tough odds if he cannot win Ohio.

Mercury. 8

Obama

196 EVs+

New Mexico (5)+

Michigan (16)+

Pennsylvania (20)-------------------------

-237 EVs

Romney

159 EVs+

Arizona (11)+

Missouri (10)+

Indiana (11)+

North Carolina (15)-------------------------

-206 EVs

270 Needed to Win | Swing States in Purple270 Needed to Win | Swing States in Purple

RCP Average - OH

47.9 47.9 -- 45.845.8

Key Ohio Numbers at a Glance

Mercury. 9

Intrade

60.0%60.0%Obama VictoryObama Victory

2008 Results

52% 52% -- 47%47%

18 EVs18 EVsRCP Average

(Senate)

47.4 47.4 -- 42.242.2

Sherrod Brown (inc.) Josh Mandel


(net +4)(net +4)

Obama Favorable

Romney has closed the favorability gap in Ohio…

Mercury.10


(net +5)(net +5)

Romney Favorable

Ohio

Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4%

…but not yet enough to overtake Obama.

Mercury.11

2012 Ballot

47% 47% -- 47%47%

Ohio

Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4%

RCP Average - VA

48.0 48.0 -- 48.048.0

Key Virginia Numbers at a Glance

Mercury.12

Intrade

54.1%54.1%Romney VictoryRomney Victory

2008 Results

53% 53% -- 46%46%

RCP Average (Senate)

47.047.0 - - 46.046.0

13 13 EVsEVs

Tim Kaine George Allen


(net +2)(net +2)

Obama Favorable

Virginia is a similar story…

Mercury.13


(net +3)(net +3)

Romney Favorable

Virginia

Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5%

…though Obama trails in only few polls.

Mercury.14

2012 Ballot

46% 46% -- 45%45%

Virginia

Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5%

RCP Average - FL

47.0 47.0 -- 48.748.7

Key Florida Numbers at a Glance

Mercury.15

Intrade


2008 Results

51% 51% -- 48%48%


47.0 47.0 -- 41.541.5

28 EVs28 EVs

Bill Nelson (inc.) Connie Mack IV


(net +6)(net +6)

Obama Favorable

Romney is starting to run away with Florida…

Mercury.16


(net +15)(net +15)

Romney Favorable

Florida

FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012 n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%

…allowing the campaign to focus resources elsewhere.

Mercury.17

2012 Ballot

45% 45% -- 48%48%

Florida

FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012 n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%

RCP Average - WI

49.5 49.5 -- 46.846.8

Key Wisconsin Numbers at a Glance

Mercury.18

Intrade


2008 Results

56% 56% -- 42%42%


46.8 46.8 -- 46.046.0

10 10 EVsEVs

Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson


(net +9)(net +9)

Obama Favorable

However, Wisconsin remains an uphill battle for Romney…

Mercury.19


(net +0)(net +0)

Romney Favorable

Wisconsin

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012 n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%

…as Obama continues to lead despite Paul Ryan on the ticket.

Mercury.20

2012 Ballot

51% 51% -- 45%45%

Wisconsin

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012 n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%

RCP Average - NH

48.2 48.2 -- 47.447.4

Key New Hampshire Numbers at a Glance

Mercury.21

Intrade


2008 Results

54% 54% -- 44%44%

4 4 EVsEVs


NoneNone

RCP Average - NV

49.5 49.5 -- 46.846.8

Key Nevada Numbers at a Glance

Mercury.22

Intrade


2008 Results

55% 55% -- 43%43%


45.845.8 -- 41.0 41.0

6 EVs6 EVs

Dean Heller (inc.) Shelley Berkley

RCP Average - CO

47.6 47.6 -- 47.847.8

Key Colorado Numbers at a Glance

Mercury.23

Intrade


2008 Results

54% 54% -- 45%45%


NoneNone

9 EVs9 EVs

RCP Average - IA

48.8 48.8 -- 46.846.8

Key Iowa Numbers at a Glance

Mercury.24

Intrade


2008 Results

54% 54% -- 44%44%


NoneNone

6 EVs6 EVs

State of the SenateState of the Senate

Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOPHawaii(Open)

Connecticut(Open)

Massachusetts(Brown)

Arizona(Open)

Nebraska(Open)

Maine(Open)

Florida(Nelson)

Montana (Tester)

Indiana(Open)

Michigan(Stabenow)

Missouri (McCaskill)

Nevada(Heller)

New Mexico(Open)

Ohio(Brown)

North Dakota(Open)

Virginia(Open)

Wisconsin(Open)

Republicans can pick up one to three Senate seats…

Mercury.25

Latest Senate PollingLatest Senate Polling

Nevada:

Heller (R): 46%Berkley (D): 40%

(SurveyUSA, 10/11-15, n=806 LV)

Montana:

Tester (D): 48%Rehberg (R): 48%

(Rasmussen, 10/14, n=500 LV)

Wisconsin:

Baldwin (D): 47%Thomspon (R): 45%

(Mason-Dixon, 10/15-17, n=625 LV)

Missouri:

McCaskill (D): 51%Akin (R): 45%

(Rasmussen, 9/2, n=500 LV)

Virginia:

Kaine (D): 49%Allen (R): 48%

(Rasmussen, 10/18, n=500LV)

Massachusetts:

Brown (R): 44%Warren (D): 50%

(WBUR/MassINC, 10/21-22, n=516 LV)

… though control of the chamber requires running the table.

Mercury.26

Connecticut:

Murphy (D): 49%McMahon (R): 43%

(Quinnipiac, 10/9-22, n=1412 LV)

Florida:

Nelson (D): 45%Mack (R): 41%

(PPP, 10/17-18, n=800 LV)

North Dakota:

Heitkamp (D): 40%Berg (R): 50%

(Forum/Essman, 10/12-15, n=500 LV)

Mercury.27

National Polling AssessmentOctober 25 2012

Kieran MahoneyCEO

New York, NY | [email protected]

Kirill GoncharenkoPresident


Senator James TalentCo-Chairman

Washington, DC| [email protected]

Hon. Fernando FerrerCo-Chairman


Hon. Fabian NunezPartner

Sacramento, CA| [email protected]

Hon. Max SandlinCo-Chairman

Washington, DC | [email protected]

Thomas DohertyPartner

Albany, NY | [email protected]

Michael McKeonPartner


Adam MendelsohnPartner

Sacramento, CA| [email protected]

Michael DuHaimePartner

Westfield, NJ| [email protected]

Hon. Vin WeberPartner

Washington, DC | [email protected]

Mcw national assessment october 25 2012

Documents

Transcript of Mcw national assessment october 25 2012