McHenry D156 Forum

8/8/2019 McHenry D156 Forum

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Integrity. Commitment. Performance.

PMA Financial Planning ProgramPresented byHoward Crouse, Vice PresidentPMA Financial Network, Inc.November 30, 2010

McHenry HSD #156


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Integrity. Commitment. Performance.2Data & Assumptions provided by District

PMA Financial Planning Program| McHenry HSD 156November 30, 2010

FY2011 Revenue

Includes: Educational, Operations & Maintenance, Transportation, Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund, Tort and Working Cash Funds

REVENUE BY SOURCE DETAIL - FY 2011

Property Taxes78.7%

Federal

4.3%

Other State5.4%General State Aid

3.8%Other Local

7.8%


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EAV Change, CPI and Tax Rate

CPI

Existing EAV Tax Rate

CPI CPIExisting EAV

Existing EAVTax Rate

Tax Rate


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Revenue Assumptions Property Taxes

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Levy Years

3.40%

2.50%

4.10%

0.10%

2.70%

2.00%

2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

1.30%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Actual Projected


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Existing EAV % Change

6.13%

1.99%

-3.43%

-8.05%-8.98%

-2.99%

0.00%2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Actual Projected


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New Growth (In Millions)

$38.74$35.71

$24.25

$16.52

$5.6 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4 $4.4

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

$40.0

$45.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Actual Projected


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Actual & Projected Limiting Rate and Tax Extensions

1.361% 1.314% 1.341% 1.391% 1.553% 1.729% 1.818% 1.863% 1.872% 1.881% 1.891%

$17.8$18.7

$19.8 $20.1$20.7 $21.0 $21.5

$22.2 $22.8$23.4 $24.1

0.000%

0.200%

0.400%

0.600%

0.800%

1.000%

1.200%

1.400%

1.600%

1.800%

2.000%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

M i l l i o n s

PTELL Limiting Rate Actual PTELL Limiting Rate Projected

Extension without Bonds Actual Extension without Bonds Projected


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FY2011 Expenditures


FY 2011 EXPENDITURES BY OBJECT

Benefits

14.5%Salaries

58.8%

Capital Outlay1.6% Other Objects

5.4%

Supplies And

Materials4.9%Purchased Services14.8%


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Expenditure Assumptions

Salaries Certified staff

Current contract through FY11 FY12 FY16 subject to negotiations

FY12 assumes all staff salaries are frozen FY13 FY16 assumes 2% - 3.5% increases per year


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Projected Aggregate Revenues Vs. Expenditures


REVENUES VS. EXPENDITURES

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

Revenues Expenditures


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Projected Aggregate Surplus/Deficit


SURPLUS / DEFICIT

($4,052,081)

($2,864,200)($3,183,290)

($2,847,820)($2,662,263) ($2,594,535)

($4,500,000)

($4,000,000)($3,500,000)

($3,000,000)

($2,500,000)

($2,000,000)

($1,500,000)($1,000,000)

($500,000)

$0

FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016


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Historical & Projected Fund BalancesProjected Year-End Balances

(Educational, Operations and Maintenance, Transportation, IMRF, Working Cash, and Tort Funds.)

($5,364,175)

($2,769,640)

($107,377)

$2,740,444

$5,923,733

$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

($811,155)

($4,092,581)

($7,140,418)

($10,024,789)

($12,826,232)($15.0)

($10.0)

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

Educat ional Operat ions andMaintenance

Transportation IMRF Working Cash Tort

M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FY End Balances Low-Point Balance


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Scenario 1 Reduce ongoing expenditures $1MProjected Year-End Balances


($151,278)

$1,376,263

$2,980,413

$4,783,957

$6,938,291

$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

$69,825

($2,183,986)

($4,188,976)

($6,016,514)

($7,751,744)

($10.0)

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0



M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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Scenario 2 Reduce ongoing expenditures $2M

Projected Year-End Balances(Educational, Operations and Maintenance, Transportation, IMRF, Working Cash, and Tort Funds.)

$5,098,170$5,536,563

$6,072,995$6,828,589

$7,953,000

$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997

$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

$950,941

($274,368)($1,233,110)

($1,994,802)($2,642,921)

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0



M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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Scenario 3 Limiting rate increase 2011 levy of 60 cents


$9,710,194$8,736,168

$7,955,690$7,481,556$7,447,674

$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997

$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

($48,562)($955,295) ($725,293)

($216,847)$498,874

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

Educat ional Ope rat ions andMaintenance


M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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$3,928,919$4,334,465$4,875,477

$5,671,525

$6,865,997

$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997

$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

($339,640)

($2,153,123)

($3,176,281) ($3,969,749)($4,612,977)

($10.0)

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

Educat ional Ope rat ions andMaintenance


M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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($1,820,558)

($55,402)

$1,798,487

$3,861,979

$6,284,328

$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

($630,711)

($3,350,514)

($5,624,320)

($7,711,678)

($9,695,026)

($15.0)

($10.0)

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

Educat ional Operations andMaintenance


M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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Scenario 6 10% CPI question for levy years 2011 & 2012


$9,824,675

$8,404,768

$7,194,404$6,303,863

$6,787,222

$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997

$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

($379,060)

($1,875,934) ($1,697,310)($765,189)

$389,824

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0



M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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Summary of Limiting Rate & CPI Questions

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Capped Levy - Actual Dollars* 20.1$Capped Levy - Actual Rate 1.391%Capped Levy - Projected Dollars* 20.7$ 21.0$ 21.5$ 22.2$ 22.8$ 23.4$ 24.1$Capped Levy - Projected Rate - Base 1.553% 1.729% 1.818% 1.863% 1.872% 1.881% 1.891%

Capped Levy - Projected w 60 cents 24.2$ 24.8$ 25.5$ 26.2$ 27.0$ 27.8$1.991% 2.093% 2.145% 2.156% 2.167% 2.177%



Capped Levy - Projected w 10% CPI 22.8$ 25.2$ 25.9$ 26.7$ 27.5$ 28.2$

1.877% 2.128% 2.182% 2.192% 2.203% 2.214%

*In millions

Levy year


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Scenario 7 $8M Working Cash Bond

Projected Year-End Balances


$2,823,032

$5,373,681

$7,986,396

$10,787,313

$13,934,181$12,840,014

$8,787,933

$14,500,278

$17,254,011$16,667,459

$15,576,213

$9,424,997

$10,594,245 $10,543,015

$8,247,998

$6,228,470

$2,507,556

$7,198,248

$3,950,646

$948,665

($1,886,423)

($4,643,413)

($10.0)

($5.0)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0



M i l l i o n s

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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Scenario 7 $8M Working Cash Bond

believes to be accurate and reliable plus 75 bps.

Rates based upon the Bloomberg AAA insured taxable index for November 24, 2010 and recent bond sales which PMA

EAV and growth rates in levy years 2010-2015 as estimated by FPP.

Levy year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Debt Service Rate - Actual 0.238 0.236 0.218 0.234

Debt Service Rate -Projected 0.266 0.306 0.330 0.345 0.347 0.349 0.352

Debt Service Rate -Projected w/ $8M New Bonds 0.266 0.568 0.568 0.568 0.347 0.349 0.352


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Copyright 2010 PMA Financial Network, Inc.

T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s s o l e l y i n t e n d e d t o s u g g e s t / d i s c u s s p o t e n t i a l l y a p p l i c a b l e f i n a n c i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s a n d i s n o t i n t e n d e d t o b e a

s p e c i f i c b u y / s e l l r e c o m m e n d a t i o n , n o r i s i t a n o f f i c i a l c o n f i r m a t i o n o f t e r m s . A n y t e r m s d i s c u s s e d h e r e i n a r e p r e l i m i n a r y u n t i l c o n f i r m e d i n a

d e f i n i t i v e w r i t t e n a g r e e m e n t .

T h e a n a l y s i s o r i n f o r m a t i o n p r e s e n t e d h e r e i n i s b a s e d u p o n h y p o t h e t i c a l p r o j e c t i o n s a n d / o r p a s t p e r f o r m a n c e t h a t h a v e c e r t a i n l i m i t a t i o n s . N o

r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s m a d e t h a t i t i s a c c u r a t e o r c o m p l e t e o r t h a t a n y r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d w i l l b e a c h i e v e d . I n n o w a y i s p a s t p e r f o r m a n c e i n d i c a t i v e

o f f u t u r e r e s u l t s . C h a n g e s t o a n y p r i c e s , l e v e l s , o r a s s u m p t i o n s c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n m a y h a v e a m a t e r i a l i m p a c t o n r e s u l t s . A n y e s t i m a t e s o r

a s s u m p t i o n s c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n r e p r e s e n t o u r b e s t j u d g m e n t a s o f t h e d a t e i n d i c a t e d a n d a r e s u b j e c t t o c h a n g e w i t h o u t n o t i c e . E x a m p l e s a r e

m e r e l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e a n d a r e n o t m e a n t t o b e a l l - i n c l u s i v e .

T h e i n f o r m a t i o n s e t f o r t h h e r e i n w a s g a t h e r e d f r o m s o u r c e s w h i c h w e b e l i e v e , b u t d o n o t g u a r a n t e e , t o b e a c c u r a t e . N e i t h e r t h e i n f o r m a t i o n ,

n o r a n y o p t i o n s e x p r e s s e d , c o n s t i t u t e a s o l i c i t a t i o n b y u s f o r p u r p o s e s o f s a l e o r p u r c h a s e o f a n y s e c u r i t i e s o r c o m m o d i t i e s .

I n v e s t m e n t / f i n a n c i n g d e c i s i o n s b y m a r k e t p a r t i c i p a n t s s h o u l d n o t b e b a s e d o n t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n .

Y o u s h o u l d c o n s i d e r c e r t a i n e c o n o m i c r i s k s ( a n d o t h e r l e g a l , t a x , a n d a c c o u n t i n g c o n s e q u e n c e s ) p r i o r t o e n t e r i n g i n t o a n y t y p e o f t r a n s a c t i o n

w i t h P M A S e c u r i t i e s , I n c . o r P M A F i n a n c i a l N e t w o r k , I n c . I t i s i m p e r a t i v e t h a t a n y p r o s p e c t i v e c l i e n t p e r f o r m i t s o w n r e s e a r c h a n d d u e

d i l i g e n c e , i n d e p e n d e n t o f u s o r o u r a f f i l i a t e s , t o d e t e r m i n e s u i t a b i l i t y o f t h e p r o p o s e d t r a n s a c t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a f o r e m e n t i o n e d p o t e n t i a l

e c o n o m i c r i s k s a n d l e g a l , t a x , a n d a c c o u n t i n g c o n s e q u e n c e s . O u r a n a l y s e s a r e n o t a n d d o n o t p u r p o r t t o b e a p p r a i s a l s o f t h e a s s e t s , o r

b u s i n e s s o f t h e D i s t r i c t o r a n y o t h e r e n t i t y . P M A m a k e s n o r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s a s t o t h e a c t u a l v a l u e w h i c h m a y b e r e c e i v e d i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h

a t r a n s a c t i o n n o r t h e l e g a l , t a x , o r a c c o u n t i n g e f f e c t s o f c o n s u m m a t i n g a t r a n s a c t i o n . P M A c a n n o t b e r e l i e d u p o n t o p r o v i d e l e g a l , t a x , o r

a c c o u n t i n g a d v i c e . Y o u s h o u l d s e e k o u t i n d e p e n d e n t a n d q u a l i f i e d l e g a l , t a x , a n d a c c o u n t i n g a d v i c e f r o m o u t s i d e s o u r c e s .

I f p o s t e d o n a w e b p a g e , t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n h a s b e e n p r e p a r e d f o r i I f p o s t e d o n a w e b p a g e , t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n h a s b e e n p r e p a r e d f o r i I f p o s t e d o n a w e b p a g e , t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n h a s b e e n p r e p a r e d f o r i I f p o s t e d o n a w e b p a g e , t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n h a s b e e n p r e p a r e d f o r i n f o r m a t i o n a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s a n d d o e s n o t c o n s t i t u t e an f o r m a t i o n a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s a n d d o e s n o t c o n s t i t u t e an f o r m a t i o n a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s a n d d o e s n o t c o n s t i t u t e an f o r m a t i o n a l a n d e d u c a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s a n d d o e s n o t c o n s t i t u t e a

s o l i c i t a t i o n t o p u r c h a s e o r s e l l s e c u r i t i e s , w h i c h m a y b e d o n e os o l i c i t a t i o n t o p u r c h a s e o r s e l l s e c u r i t i e s , w h i c h m a y b e d o n e os o l i c i t a t i o n t o p u r c h a s e o r s e l l s e c u r i t i e s , w h i c h m a y b e d o n e os o l i c i t a t i o n t o p u r c h a s e o r s e l l s e c u r i t i e s , w h i c h m a y b e d o n e o n l y a f t e r c l i e n t s u i t a b i l i t y i s r e v i e w e d a n d d e t e r m i n e d . S e r v i c en l y a f t e r c l i e n t s u i t a b i l i t y i s r e v i e w e d a n d d e t e r m i n e d . S e r v i c en l y a f t e r c l i e n t s u i t a b i l i t y i s r e v i e w e d a n d d e t e r m i n e d . S e r v i c en l y a f t e r c l i e n t s u i t a b i l i t y i s r e v i e w e d a n d d e t e r m i n e d . S e r v i c e s o f f e r e d b ys o f f e r e d b ys o f f e r e d b ys o f f e r e d b y

P M A S e c u r i t i e s , I n c . a n d t h i s r e g i s t e r e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p r e s e n t eP M A S e c u r i t i e s , I n c . a n d t h i s r e g i s t e r e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p r e s e n t eP M A S e c u r i t i e s , I n c . a n d t h i s r e g i s t e r e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p r e s e n t eP M A S e c u r i t i e s , I n c . a n d t h i s r e g i s t e r e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p r e s e n t e r , i n p a r t i c u l a r , a r e a v a i l a b l e o n l y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e : I L r , i n p a r t i c u l a r , a r e a v a i l a b l e o n l y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e : I L r , i n p a r t i c u l a r , a r e a v a i l a b l e o n l y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e : I L r , i n p a r t i c u l a r , a r e a v a i l a b l e o n l y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e : I L . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n. T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n. T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n. T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n

i s n o t a n a d v e r t i s e m e n t o f s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e i n a n y s t a t e o t h e r i s n o t a n a d v e r t i s e m e n t o f s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e i n a n y s t a t e o t h e r i s n o t a n a d v e r t i s e m e n t o f s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e i n a n y s t a t e o t h e r i s n o t a n a d v e r t i s e m e n t o f s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e i n a n y s t a t e o t h e r t h a n t h o s e l i s t e d a b o v e .t h a n t h o s e l i s t e d a b o v e .t h a n t h o s e l i s t e d a b o v e .t h a n t h o s e l i s t e d a b o v e .

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