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Copyright © 2018 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Chapter 28 Economic Growth

Transcript of McConnell 21e IPPT Ch28(1) - mcneileconomics.com Penn World Table version 6.3, pwt.econ.upenn.edu....

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Chapter 28Economic Growth

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Economic Growth• IncreaseinrealGDPorrealGDPpercapitaoversometimeperiod• Percentagerateofgrowth• Growthasagoal• Arithmeticofgrowth:Ruleof70

ApproximatenumberofyearsrequiredtodoublerealGDP

=70

annualpercentagerateofgrowth

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Economic Growth Continued• GrowthinU.S.realGDP1950-2015• Increasedmorethansevenfold• 3.1%peryear

• GrowthinU.S.realGDPpercapita• Increasedmorethanthreefold• Atroughly2%peryear

• Qualifications• Improvedproductsandservices• Addedleisure• Otherimpacts

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Economic Growth ConcludedRealGDPandRealGDPperCapita

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Modern Economic Growth• BeganwiththeIndustrialRevolutioninlate1700s• Ongoingincreasesinlivingstandards• Timeforleisure• Socialchange• Democracy• Humanlifespandoubled

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Modern Economic Growth Continued• BeganinBritain• Hasspreadslowly• Startingdatemaincauseofworldwidedifferencesinlivingstandards• Catchingupispossible• Leadercountriesinventtechnology• Followercountriesadopttechnology• Cangrowfaster

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Comparative Modern Economic Growth

RealGDP RealGDP Averageannualpercapita, percapita, growthrate,

Country 1960 2010 1960-2010

UnitedStates $14,766 $41,365 2.1%UnitedKingdom11,25734,268 2.2France 9,347 31,299 2.4Ireland 6,666 34,877 3.3Japan 5,472 31,477 3.5Singapore 4,149 55,862 5.2HongKong 3,849 38,865 4.6SouthKorea 1,765 26,609 5.4Note:GDPfiguresforallcountriesaremeasuredin“internationaldollars”ofequalvaluetoU.S.dollarsin2005.Source:PennWorldTableversion6.3,pwt.econ.upenn.edu.UsedbypermissionoftheCenterforInternationalComparisonsattheUniversityofPennsylvania

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Modern Economic Growth Concluded

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Institutional Structures of Growth• Strongpropertyrights• Patentsandcopyrights• Efficientfinancialinstitutions• Literacyandwidespreadeducation• Freetrade• Competitivemarketsystem

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Determinants of Growth• Supplyfactors• Increasesinquantityandqualityofnaturalresources• Increasesinqualityandquantityofhumanresources• Increasesinthesupply(orstock)ofcapitalgoods• Improvementsintechnology

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Determinants of Growth Continued• Demandfactor• Households,businesses,andgovernmentmustpurchasetheeconomy’sexpandingoutput

• Efficiencyfactor•Mustachieveeconomicefficiencyandfullemployment

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a

EconomicGrowth

b

DB

A

C

ConsumerGoods

CapitalG

oods

c

FromChapter1:Production Possibilities

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Labor and Productivity

•Sizeofemployedlaborforce

•Averagehoursofwork

LaborInputs(hoursofwork)

•Technologicaladvance

•Quantityofcapital

•Educationandtraining

•Allocativeefficiency

•Other

LaborProductivity(averageoutputperhour)

RealGDP

RealGDP=hoursofwork× laborproductivity

×=

LO3

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U.S. Economic Growth

Item1953Q2

To1973Q41973Q4

To1995Q21995Q2

To2007Q32007Q3

To2015Q3

Projected2015Q3

To2026Q4

IncreaseinrealGDP 3.6 2.8 3.2 1.2 2.4

Increaseinquantityoflabor 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.3

Increaseinlaborproductivity 2.5 1.5 2.7 1.1 2.1

AccountingfortheGrowthofU.S.RealGDP,1953-2015,PlusProjectionfrom2015-2026

(AverageAnnualPercentageChanges)

Source: DerivedfromEconomicReportofthePresident,2008,p.45;EconomicReportofthePresident,2016,p.113;BureauofEconomicAnalysis;andBureauofLaborStatistics.

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Accounting for Growth• Factorsaffectingproductivitygrowth• Technologicaladvance(40%)• Quantityofcapital(30%)• Educationandtraining(15%)• Economiesofscaleandresourceallocation(15%)

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Accounting for Growth Continued

AverageTestScoresofEighthGradeStudentsinMathandScience,2011

Mathematics Science

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Productivity Growth• Averagerateofgrowth• 1.5%peryear1973-1995• 2.6%peryear1995-2010• 0.4%peryear2010-2015• Affectsrealoutput,realincome,andrealwages• Payhigherwageswithoutloweringprofit

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Productivity Growth Continued•Microchipandinformationtechnology• Start-upfirmsandincreasingreturns• Sourcesofincreasingreturns•Morespecializedinputs• Spreadingofdevelopmentcosts• Simultaneousconsumption• Networkeffects• Learningbydoing

• GlobalcompetitionLO5

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Productivity Growth Concluded

LO5

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Productivity Slowdown• Highdebtlevels• Overcapacity• FreeInternetApps• Slowdownintechnologicalprogress

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Global Competitiveness Index

LO6

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Is Growth Desirable?• Theantigrowthview• Environmentalandresourceissues• Indefenseofeconomicgrowth• Higherstandardofliving• Humanimaginationcansolveenvironmentalandresourceissues

LO6

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Economic Growth Defense• Growthisthepathtogreatermaterialabundance• Resultsinhigherstandardsofliving• Increasesleisuretime• Allowsfortheexpansionandapplicationofhumanknowledge

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Can Economic Growth Survive Population Decline?• Asnationsindustrialize,theireconomiesshiftfromagriculturetoindustry• Fertilityratesfall• Decreaseinpopulation• Eachgenerationsmallerthantheonebefore

• Inversedependencyratio• Socialsecurityissues• Innovationandproductivity