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Transcript of McConnell 21e IPPT Ch28(1) - mcneileconomics.com Penn World Table version 6.3, pwt.econ.upenn.edu....
Copyright © 2018 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
Chapter 28Economic Growth
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Economic Growth• IncreaseinrealGDPorrealGDPpercapitaoversometimeperiod• Percentagerateofgrowth• Growthasagoal• Arithmeticofgrowth:Ruleof70
ApproximatenumberofyearsrequiredtodoublerealGDP
=70
annualpercentagerateofgrowth
LO1
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Economic Growth Continued• GrowthinU.S.realGDP1950-2015• Increasedmorethansevenfold• 3.1%peryear
• GrowthinU.S.realGDPpercapita• Increasedmorethanthreefold• Atroughly2%peryear
• Qualifications• Improvedproductsandservices• Addedleisure• Otherimpacts
LO1
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Economic Growth ConcludedRealGDPandRealGDPperCapita
LO1
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Modern Economic Growth• BeganwiththeIndustrialRevolutioninlate1700s• Ongoingincreasesinlivingstandards• Timeforleisure• Socialchange• Democracy• Humanlifespandoubled
LO2
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Modern Economic Growth Continued• BeganinBritain• Hasspreadslowly• Startingdatemaincauseofworldwidedifferencesinlivingstandards• Catchingupispossible• Leadercountriesinventtechnology• Followercountriesadopttechnology• Cangrowfaster
LO2
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Comparative Modern Economic Growth
RealGDP RealGDP Averageannualpercapita, percapita, growthrate,
Country 1960 2010 1960-2010
UnitedStates $14,766 $41,365 2.1%UnitedKingdom11,25734,268 2.2France 9,347 31,299 2.4Ireland 6,666 34,877 3.3Japan 5,472 31,477 3.5Singapore 4,149 55,862 5.2HongKong 3,849 38,865 4.6SouthKorea 1,765 26,609 5.4Note:GDPfiguresforallcountriesaremeasuredin“internationaldollars”ofequalvaluetoU.S.dollarsin2005.Source:PennWorldTableversion6.3,pwt.econ.upenn.edu.UsedbypermissionoftheCenterforInternationalComparisonsattheUniversityofPennsylvania
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Modern Economic Growth Concluded
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Institutional Structures of Growth• Strongpropertyrights• Patentsandcopyrights• Efficientfinancialinstitutions• Literacyandwidespreadeducation• Freetrade• Competitivemarketsystem
LO2
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Determinants of Growth• Supplyfactors• Increasesinquantityandqualityofnaturalresources• Increasesinqualityandquantityofhumanresources• Increasesinthesupply(orstock)ofcapitalgoods• Improvementsintechnology
LO3
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Determinants of Growth Continued• Demandfactor• Households,businesses,andgovernmentmustpurchasetheeconomy’sexpandingoutput
• Efficiencyfactor•Mustachieveeconomicefficiencyandfullemployment
LO3
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a
EconomicGrowth
b
DB
A
C
ConsumerGoods
CapitalG
oods
c
FromChapter1:Production Possibilities
LO3
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Labor and Productivity
•Sizeofemployedlaborforce
•Averagehoursofwork
LaborInputs(hoursofwork)
•Technologicaladvance
•Quantityofcapital
•Educationandtraining
•Allocativeefficiency
•Other
LaborProductivity(averageoutputperhour)
RealGDP
RealGDP=hoursofwork× laborproductivity
×=
LO3
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U.S. Economic Growth
Item1953Q2
To1973Q41973Q4
To1995Q21995Q2
To2007Q32007Q3
To2015Q3
Projected2015Q3
To2026Q4
IncreaseinrealGDP 3.6 2.8 3.2 1.2 2.4
Increaseinquantityoflabor 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.3
Increaseinlaborproductivity 2.5 1.5 2.7 1.1 2.1
AccountingfortheGrowthofU.S.RealGDP,1953-2015,PlusProjectionfrom2015-2026
(AverageAnnualPercentageChanges)
Source: DerivedfromEconomicReportofthePresident,2008,p.45;EconomicReportofthePresident,2016,p.113;BureauofEconomicAnalysis;andBureauofLaborStatistics.
LO3
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Accounting for Growth• Factorsaffectingproductivitygrowth• Technologicaladvance(40%)• Quantityofcapital(30%)• Educationandtraining(15%)• Economiesofscaleandresourceallocation(15%)
LO4
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Accounting for Growth Continued
AverageTestScoresofEighthGradeStudentsinMathandScience,2011
Mathematics Science
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Productivity Growth• Averagerateofgrowth• 1.5%peryear1973-1995• 2.6%peryear1995-2010• 0.4%peryear2010-2015• Affectsrealoutput,realincome,andrealwages• Payhigherwageswithoutloweringprofit
LO5
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Productivity Growth Continued•Microchipandinformationtechnology• Start-upfirmsandincreasingreturns• Sourcesofincreasingreturns•Morespecializedinputs• Spreadingofdevelopmentcosts• Simultaneousconsumption• Networkeffects• Learningbydoing
• GlobalcompetitionLO5
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Productivity Growth Concluded
LO5
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Productivity Slowdown• Highdebtlevels• Overcapacity• FreeInternetApps• Slowdownintechnologicalprogress
LO5
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Global Competitiveness Index
LO6
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Is Growth Desirable?• Theantigrowthview• Environmentalandresourceissues• Indefenseofeconomicgrowth• Higherstandardofliving• Humanimaginationcansolveenvironmentalandresourceissues
LO6
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Economic Growth Defense• Growthisthepathtogreatermaterialabundance• Resultsinhigherstandardsofliving• Increasesleisuretime• Allowsfortheexpansionandapplicationofhumanknowledge
LO6
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Can Economic Growth Survive Population Decline?• Asnationsindustrialize,theireconomiesshiftfromagriculturetoindustry• Fertilityratesfall• Decreaseinpopulation• Eachgenerationsmallerthantheonebefore
• Inversedependencyratio• Socialsecurityissues• Innovationandproductivity