Mayora Indah · 2016. 12. 23. · Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan...

5
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) 9M16 review: Double digit growth 9M16: Double digit growth Untuk 9M16, Mayora Indah (MYOR) membukukan laba di IDR897,9milyar (+ 3.2% YoY). Laba diperoleh dari pendapatan sebesar IDR13,3tr (+ 24,6% YoY), yang mencerminkan pertumbuhan lebih tinggi dari rata-rata lima tahun terakhir (2011-2015) di 15,8% (lihat Gambar 1). Pertumbuhan dua dijit ini terutama disebabkan terutama sekali dari volume penjualan yang meningkat, dalam pandangan kami. Untuk diketahui, MYOR di 9M16 mengalami kenaikan harga pokok penjualan (COGS) ke IDR9,8tr. Kami percaya tidak adanya kenaikan harga menyebabkan penurunan marjin kotor menjadi 26,5% di 9M16 dari 28,6% di 9M15. Selain itu, pertumbuhan laba bersih di 9M16 didukung oleh kemampuan MYOR untuk mengendalikan biaya dengan baik. Jumlah beban usaha hanya mengalami kenaikan relatif kecil sebesar 3,6% YoY menjadi IDR1,9tr, sehingga meningkatkan marjin operasi dari 12,5% di 9M16 vs 11,7% di 9M15. Selain itu, meskipun menimbulkan kerugian selisih kurs dari IDR185.3bn di 9M16 vs keuntungan dari IDR259.9bn di 9M15, MYOR masih menikmati kenaikan di 0,5% YoY untuk laba sebelum pajak dan 3,2% YoY laba bersih diIDR897,9miliar. Secara umum, kami percaya kinerja yang baik ini menunjukkan pelaksanaan strategi MYOR yang bermanfaat dalam menangkap pasar yang luas di negara itu. Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan hasil. Perusahaan membukukan laba kotor di26,5% di 9M16, di atas rata-rata 5 tahun (2011- 2015) di 22,1% (lihat Gambar 2). 9M16 marjin operasi dan marjin laba bersih masing- masing berada di 12,5% dan 6,7%, , juga diatas rata-rata 5 tahun yang masing-masing 9,7% dan 6,3%. Terlepas dari volume yang lebih tinggi, kami juga menganggap peningkatan profitabilitas juga disebabkan oleh bauran produk yang menguntungkan perusahaan. Peluncuran MYOR untuk Bakmi Mewah pada tahun lalu telah terbukti sukses sehingga pesaing utama MYOR mengikuti jejak dengan meluncurkan produk serupa di sekitar 6 bulan kemudian. Contoh produk lainnya yang memiliki kinerja baik adalah minuman dengan merek Teh Pucuk Harum, diluncurkan 5 tahun yang lalu, dan air minum kemasan Le Minerale, diluncurkan pada 1Q tahun lalu. Ketiga produk ini menambahkan lebih banyak varietas untuk produk yang sudah ada, yang pada gilirannya menyebabkan profitabilitas yang lebih baik, menurut kami. Quarterly revival Penjualan MYOR di 3Q16 mencapai IDR4tr (+ 28,2% YoY) menandai pertumbuhan dua dijit keempat sejak 4Q15 (lihat Gambar 3). Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan berhasil naik melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 4Q16 (lihat Gambar 4). Selain itu, jumlah porsi penjualan MYOR terbukti harus seimbang, dengan kontribusi dari 1) pengolahan makanan dan 2) pengolahan kopi bubuk, kopi instan, dan biji kakao berdiri di sekitar tingkat yang sama (lihat Gambar 5). Juga, sebagian besar MYOR untuk penjualan ke pasar luar negeri sebesar 44% dari total pendapatan di 9M16 menjabat sebagai terdepan atas perusahaan lain. Pada akhir 9M16, rasio utang terhadap ekuitas kotor menyumbang 78,6%, yang kami anggap aman mengingat kinerja perusahaan terbaru. Consumers Company Report December 23, 2016 Not-rated Target Price (12M, IDR) - Share Price (12/22/16, IDR) 1,610 Expected Return - Consensus OP (16F, IDRtr) 2.2 EPS Growth (16F, %) 203.3 P/E (16F, x) 27.8 Industry P/E (16F, x) 29.4 Benchmark P/E (16F, x) 16.6 Market Cap (IDRbn) 35,997.5 Shares Outstanding (mn) 22,358.7 Free Float (mn) 14,965.8 Institutional Ownership (%) 3.9 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 0.6 52-Week Low (IDR) 1,022 52-Week High (IDR) 1,800 (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 5.6 4.5 43.2 Relative 8.7 1.6 31.6 PT. Daewoo Securities Indonesia Dang Maulida +62-21-515-1140 [email protected] FY (Dec) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15 Revenue (IDRbn) 7,224.2 9,453.9 10,510.6 12,017.8 14,169.1 14,818.7 OP (IDRbn) 774.0 757.9 1,156.6 1,305.4 890.9 1,862.6 OP Margin (%) 10.7 8.0 11.0 10.9 6.3 12.6 NP (IDRbn) 484.1 471.0 729.6 1,041.8 403.4 1,220.0 EPS (IDR) 21.6 21.1 32.6 46.6 18.0 54.6 ROE (%) 27.1 21.6 27.3 30.4 10.3 26.9 P/E (x) 17.0 23.2 21.0 22.3 46.3 22.4 PB(x) 4.1 4.6 5.1 6.0 4.7 5.4 Note: All figures are based on consolidated data; OP refers to operating profit Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 12/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 11/16 JCI MYOR (D-1yr=100)

Transcript of Mayora Indah · 2016. 12. 23. · Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan...

Page 1: Mayora Indah · 2016. 12. 23. · Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan hasil. Perusahaan membukukan laba kotor di26,5% di 9M16, di atas rata-rata 5 tahun

Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.

Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)

9M16 review: Double digit growth

9M16: Double digit growth

Untuk 9M16, Mayora Indah (MYOR) membukukan laba di IDR897,9milyar (+ 3.2% YoY).

Laba diperoleh dari pendapatan sebesar IDR13,3tr (+ 24,6% YoY), yang mencerminkan

pertumbuhan lebih tinggi dari rata-rata lima tahun terakhir (2011-2015) di 15,8% (lihat

Gambar 1). Pertumbuhan dua dijit ini terutama disebabkan terutama sekali dari volume

penjualan yang meningkat, dalam pandangan kami. Untuk diketahui, MYOR di 9M16

mengalami kenaikan harga pokok penjualan (COGS) ke IDR9,8tr. Kami percaya tidak

adanya kenaikan harga menyebabkan penurunan marjin kotor menjadi 26,5% di 9M16

dari 28,6% di 9M15. Selain itu, pertumbuhan laba bersih di 9M16 didukung oleh

kemampuan MYOR untuk mengendalikan biaya dengan baik. Jumlah beban usaha hanya

mengalami kenaikan relatif kecil sebesar 3,6% YoY menjadi IDR1,9tr, sehingga

meningkatkan marjin operasi dari 12,5% di 9M16 vs 11,7% di 9M15. Selain itu, meskipun

menimbulkan kerugian selisih kurs dari IDR185.3bn di 9M16 vs keuntungan dari

IDR259.9bn di 9M15, MYOR masih menikmati kenaikan di 0,5% YoY untuk laba sebelum

pajak dan 3,2% YoY laba bersih diIDR897,9miliar. Secara umum, kami percaya kinerja

yang baik ini menunjukkan pelaksanaan strategi MYOR yang bermanfaat dalam

menangkap pasar yang luas di negara itu.

Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan hasil.

Perusahaan membukukan laba kotor di26,5% di 9M16, di atas rata-rata 5 tahun (2011-

2015) di 22,1% (lihat Gambar 2). 9M16 marjin operasi dan marjin laba bersih masing-

masing berada di 12,5% dan 6,7%, , juga diatas rata-rata 5 tahun yang masing-masing

9,7% dan 6,3%. Terlepas dari volume yang lebih tinggi, kami juga menganggap

peningkatan profitabilitas juga disebabkan oleh bauran produk yang menguntungkan

perusahaan. Peluncuran MYOR untuk Bakmi Mewah pada tahun lalu telah terbukti

sukses sehingga pesaing utama MYOR mengikuti jejak dengan meluncurkan produk

serupa di sekitar 6 bulan kemudian. Contoh produk lainnya yang memiliki kinerja baik

adalah minuman dengan merek Teh Pucuk Harum, diluncurkan 5 tahun yang lalu, dan air

minum kemasan Le Minerale, diluncurkan pada 1Q tahun lalu. Ketiga produk ini

menambahkan lebih banyak varietas untuk produk yang sudah ada, yang pada

gilirannya menyebabkan profitabilitas yang lebih baik, menurut kami.

Quarterly revival

Penjualan MYOR di 3Q16 mencapai IDR4tr (+ 28,2% YoY) menandai pertumbuhan dua

dijit keempat sejak 4Q15 (lihat Gambar 3). Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan

berhasil naik melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 4Q16 (lihat Gambar 4).

Selain itu, jumlah porsi penjualan MYOR terbukti harus seimbang, dengan kontribusi dari

1) pengolahan makanan dan 2) pengolahan kopi bubuk, kopi instan, dan biji kakao

berdiri di sekitar tingkat yang sama (lihat Gambar 5). Juga, sebagian besar MYOR untuk

penjualan ke pasar luar negeri sebesar 44% dari total pendapatan di 9M16 menjabat

sebagai terdepan atas perusahaan lain. Pada akhir 9M16, rasio utang terhadap ekuitas

kotor menyumbang 78,6%, yang kami anggap aman mengingat kinerja perusahaan

terbaru.

Consumers

Company Report

December 23, 2016

Not-rated

Target Price (12M, IDR) -

Share Price (12/22/16, IDR) 1,610

Expected Return -

Consensus OP (16F, IDRtr) 2.2

EPS Growth (16F, %) 203.3

P/E (16F, x) 27.8

Industry P/E (16F, x) 29.4

Benchmark P/E (16F, x) 16.6

Market Cap (IDRbn) 35,997.5

Shares Outstanding (mn) 22,358.7

Free Float (mn) 14,965.8

Institutional Ownership (%) 3.9

Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 0.6

52-Week Low (IDR) 1,022

52-Week High (IDR) 1,800

(%) 1M 6M 12M

Absolute 5.6 4.5 43.2

Relative 8.7 1.6 31.6

PT. Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Dang Maulida

+62-21-515-1140

[email protected]

FY (Dec) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15

Revenue (IDRbn) 7,224.2 9,453.9 10,510.6 12,017.8 14,169.1 14,818.7

OP (IDRbn) 774.0 757.9 1,156.6 1,305.4 890.9 1,862.6

OP Margin (%) 10.7 8.0 11.0 10.9 6.3 12.6

NP (IDRbn) 484.1 471.0 729.6 1,041.8 403.4 1,220.0

EPS (IDR) 21.6 21.1 32.6 46.6 18.0 54.6

ROE (%) 27.1 21.6 27.3 30.4 10.3 26.9

P/E (x) 17.0 23.2 21.0 22.3 46.3 22.4

PB(x) 4.1 4.6 5.1 6.0 4.7 5.4

Note: All figures are based on consolidated data; OP refers to operating profit

Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

12

/15

1/1

6

2/1

6

3/1

6

4/1

6

5/1

6

6/1

6

7/1

6

8/1

6

9/1

6

10

/16

11

/16

JCI MYOR(D-1yr=100)

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Mayora Indah

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December 23, 2016

Daewoo Securities Research

KDB Daewoo Securities Research

Figure 1. Daewoo cartoon

Source: Daewoo Securities Research

Page 3: Mayora Indah · 2016. 12. 23. · Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan hasil. Perusahaan membukukan laba kotor di26,5% di 9M16, di atas rata-rata 5 tahun

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Daewoo Securities Research

KDB Daewoo Securities Research

Figure 2. Average annual sales growth of 15.8% (2011-2015) Figure 3. Improved profitability in 9M16

Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Figure 4. MYOR’s quarterly revenue and growth Figure 5. MYOR’s quarterly growth (9M16)

Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Figure 6. MYOR’s revenue mix (9M16) Figure 7. MYOR’s gross debt-to-equity ratio

Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Indonesia

9.510.5

12.0

14.2 14.813.3

30.9

11.2

14.3

17.9

4.6

24.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M16

Sales (IDRtr) Growth (%, YoY)

26.5

22.1

12.5

9.7

6.7

6.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M16

Gross margin Av. 5-yrs gross margin

Operating margin Av. 5-yrs operating margin

Net margin Av. 5-yrs net profit margin

(%)

3,456.4

4,083.4

3,150.8

4,128.1

4,681.5 4,594.7

4,039.3

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

5,000.0

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

(IDRbn)

(1.2)

4.2

0.3

14.3

35.4

12.5

28.2

(4.3)

18.1

(22.8)

31.0

13.4

(1.9)

(12.1)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

YOY QoQ

(%)

50.8 49.2

24.4 27.0

9.8 14.5

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Food processing Processing of coffee powder,instant coffee and cocoa beans

%tage of total sales Gross margin Operating margin

(%)

73.3

78.6

70.0

71.0

72.0

73.0

74.0

75.0

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

2015 9M16

(%)

Page 4: Mayora Indah · 2016. 12. 23. · Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan hasil. Perusahaan membukukan laba kotor di26,5% di 9M16, di atas rata-rata 5 tahun

Mayora Indah

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Daewoo Securities Research

KDB Daewoo Securities Research

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving

Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes

Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening

Sell Relative performance of -10%

* Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))

* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.

* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material

development.

* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of

future earnings.

The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic

conditions.

Analyst Certification

The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Indonesian jurisdiction and are subject to Indonesian securities

regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in

this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Except

as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and

have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related

to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia, the Analysts receive

compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment

banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any

actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers

This report is published by PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (“Daewoo”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the

Indonesia Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such

information has not been independently verified and Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness,

accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Bahasa Indonesia. If this

report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to

investors in advance of this report. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising

from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to

effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have

substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this

report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive

or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or

reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Daewoo. Daewoo, its affiliates and

their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale,

or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case

either as principals or agents. Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies

to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the

investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past

performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Disclosures

As of the publication date, PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own

1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Page 5: Mayora Indah · 2016. 12. 23. · Strategi manajemen Mayora Indah (MYOR) tampaknya telah membuahkan hasil. Perusahaan membukukan laba kotor di26,5% di 9M16, di atas rata-rata 5 tahun

Mayora Indah

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Distribution

United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within

Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other

persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant

Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its

contents.

United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional

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they will direct commission income to Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed

herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The

securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or

sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements.

Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong

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distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws

of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person.

All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Daewoo or

its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Daewoo and its

affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

Daewoo Securities International Network

PT. Daewoo Securities Indonesia Daewoo Securities Co. Ltd. (Seoul) Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd.

Equity Tower 50th Floor

Jl.Jend Sudirman, SCBD Lot 9

Jakarta 12190

Head Office

14, Eunhaeng-ro, Yeongdeungpo-gu

Seoul 150-973

Korea

Suites 2005-2012

Two International Finance Centre

8 Finance Street, Central

Hong Kong

Tel: 62-21-515-1140 Tel: 82-2-768-3026 Tel: 85-2-2514-1304

Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.

320 Park Avenue, 31st Floor.

New York, NY 10022

United States

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United Kingdom

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Singapore, 049909

Tel: 1-212-407-1000 Tel: 44-20-7982-8000 Tel: 65-6671-9845

Tokyo Representative Office Beijing Representative Office Shanghai Representative Office

7F, Yusen Building, 2-3-2

Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku

Tokyo 100-0005

Japan

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Twin Tower, B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Chaoyang District, Beijing 100022

China

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China

Tel: 81-3- 3211-5511 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 Tel: 86-21-5013-6392

Ho Chi Minh Representative Office Daewoo Investment Advisory (Beijing) Co.,

Ltd

Daewoo Securities (Mongolia) LLC

Suites 901B. Centec Tower

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China

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Tel: 84-8-3910-6000 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 Tel: 976-7011-0807