Maybe Limits to Growth But no Limits to Progress Presentation mr. Rein Willems President Shell...
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Maybe Limits to Growth But no Limits to Progress Presentation mr. Rein Willems President Shell Nederland B.V. RIVM Congress “LIMITS TO GROWTH?” Friday April 15, 2005
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Transcript of Maybe Limits to Growth But no Limits to Progress Presentation mr. Rein Willems President Shell...
Maybe Limits to Growth
But no Limits to Progress
Presentation mr. Rein WillemsPresident Shell Nederland B.V.
RIVM Congress “LIMITS TO GROWTH?”
Friday April 15, 2005
“Food plus Energy are necessary for the existence of men”
Oil consumption per unit GDP
Rest worldWorldIndustrialised countries
Source: Oil & Gas Journal
Change since 1973: World total –39% Industr. Countries –50%Rest world –24%
Barr
els
per
$ 1
,000
GD
P (
1990
-dolla
rs)
335209
51Other renewables
3222,5Biomass/waste
74,5Hydro
1514Nuclear
273)167(All fossils
8344Gas
11875Oil
7548Coal
20302002
Source: IEA Energy Outlook 2004
IEA scenarios energy consumption(mln barrels oil equivalent)
Total
Highlights of IEA Reference Scenario
• Fossil fuels stay dominant: in 2002 80% market share; in 2030 82 %
• All growth in global energy consumption supplied by fossils
• Gas fastest grower in fossils
• Nuclear almost stable in capacity – reduced market share
• ‘Real’ renewables (wind, solar, modern biomass) make slow start
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
84
30
120
2005 2030
New build production capacity
90
Natural decrease of production from existing fields
Oil mln. barrels/day
Necessary increase in capacity world oil production
Reserves conventional oil
Ultimate recovery 3,350 bn barrel
Already produced 717 bn barrel
Still producable 2,630 bn barrel
Unconventional oil
Heavy oil 7,000 bn barrel
Oil sands oil originally
Oil shale in place}
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
‘Seventies’
2005
$/barrel
Development economy oil sands
Cost oil sands
Market price conven- tional oil
Oil sands
Conven- tional oil
Pull Out all the Stops
Stop 1: New techniques to increase recovery existing fieldsStop 2: Find more oil and gas reservoirs
Stop 3: Reduce production costs
Stop 4: Develop unconventional oil and gas reserves
Stop 5: Develop commercial renewables
Stop 6: Gasification techniques
Stop 7: Environmental technology
Stop 8: R&D in nuclear powerStop 9: Energy conservation
2000 2050
Renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
A
Coal
BScenario
Primary Energy, EJ per year
Nuclear
Biomass
Renewables
Source: IPCC2001 / WBCSD
Energy use & Fuel mix in 2050
