Maybank IB SU 2013-01-14 Property Sector Pain First Gain Later 2873

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 SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Sector Update 14 January 2013 PP16832/01/2013 (031128)  Malaysia Property: Developers Pain First, Gain Later Maintain Neutral.  The 13GE will continue to dampen sentiment on property stocks in 1H13, but a re-rating should take place post-13GE with the planned rollout of government land developments (GLD) and the KV MRT2-3 projects. We advise investors to avoid property developers with high foreign shareholdings given the potential for a selldown ahea d of the 13GE. We prefer develope rs with large ex posure to township developments i.e. Glomac. We also like UEML for its exposure to the booming Iskandar Malaysia; accumulate on weakness. Affordable housing is the key.  We expect the demand for affordable homes to remain strong driven by a sizeable young population. This housing segment, dominated by first-time buyers/owner occupiers, is less vulnerable to property downcycles and stricter lending rules. Developers such as SPSB, Mah Sing and Glomac have been increasing their exposures in the affordable housing segment by buying sizeable landbanks in Kajang/Semenyih, Bangi, Sg Buloh and Sepang. Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is heating up. Rising investments and oil & gas activities will serve as re-rating catalysts for property/land prices in IM over the long term. Recent foreign investments in IM such as those by Ascendas have raised IM’s profile at the international level, reflecting its attractiveness as an investment destination. UEML, as the largest land owner in IM, is the prime beneficiary of the IM boom. Share price drivers. We expect some GLD awards post the 13GE i.e. Kwasa’s RRIM land in Sg Buloh, the Unilever land in Bangsar and the Pudu jail redevelopment. These would provide short-term trading opportunities for property stocks. Frontrunners to win the GLD awards include GLCs such as SPSB, UEML and MRCB. Final alignment of the KV MRT 2  and Circle lines is likely to be announced in 3Q13 (government approval is targeted for 2H13), and may be another re- rating catalyst for selected develop ers. Key bene ficiaries include SPSB, YTL Land and Mah Sing. Stock picks. Our top pick in the sector is Glomac. We like Glomac for its undemanding valuations and large exposure to township developments (48% of remaining GDV). We also like SPSB for its proven track record and strategic landbank. However, the gradual reduction in its founder stake may affect share price performance. As for UEML, it is set to benefit from the booming IM. Any selldown ahead of the 13GE is an opportunity to buy into the stock. Property Developer Sector   Peer Valuation Summary Source: Maybank KE Stock Rec Shr px Mkt cap TP PER (x) PER (x) PER (x) P/B (x) P/B (x) ROAE (%) ROAE (%) Net yield (MYR  (MYRm) (MYR) CY12E CY13E CY 14E CY12E CY13E CY12E CY13E CY13E UEM Land HOLD 2.12 9177.2 2.21 2 7.5 26.5 22.6 1.7 1.6 7.1 6.0 0.7 SP Setia BUY 3.17 6358.4 4.21 16.4 14.0 10.7 1.6 1.5 9.4 10.4 4.3 Sunway Berhad HOLD 2.43 3140.8 2.54 9.1 8.3 7.5 1.0 0.9 10.6 10.5 2.4 Mah Sing HOLD 2.23 1872.9 2.45 8.1 6.6 4.6 1.5 1.3 18.8 20.5 6.1 Glomac BUY 0.84 592.9 1.00 5.9 5.1 4.0 0.4 0.4 13.4 14.2 7.5 Simple average 21142.3 13.4 12.1 9.9 1.2 1.1 11.8 12.3 4.2 Neutral  (unchanged)  Wong Wei Sum, CFA [email protected] (03) 2297 8679 UEM Land (ULHD MK; HOLD; MYR2.21TP). The prime beneficiary to the Iskandar Malaysia boom. It is also the largest developer in Malaysia (in term of landbank and m arket capitalisation). Potential surprises could come from strategic land sales and the acquisition of government land developments in Klang Valley. SP Setia (SPSB MK; BUY; MYR4.21 p re-placement TP).  SP Setia is famous with its creative and strong management team. Reputable projects include Setia Alam and Setia Eco Park. Share price drivers include: 1) strong sales figures for Battersea post-its official launch in Jan 2013; 2) involvement in government land developments; 3) the final alignment for KVMRT Circle line in mid- 2013 which would benefit SPSB’s KL Eco City and Setia Federal Hill. Sunway (SWB MK; HOLD; MYR2.54 TP)   One of the leading property and construction groups in Malaysia. It has MYR3.2b outstanding orderbook YTD (construction) and MYR2.1b unbilled sales as at Sep’1 2 (property). With the acquisition of another 779 acres of freehold land in Medini, Sunway emerges as one of the key players in Iskandar Malaysia with 1,534 acres of land worth MYR25b in GDV. Re- rating catalysts include potential jobwins from MRT 2 nd  and 3 rd  lines. Mah Sing (MSGB MK; HOLD; MYR2.45 TP)  - MSGB is famous with its fast turnaround strategy. MSGB has recently proposed to undertake a renounceable rights issue with free warrants to relief its overstretched balance sheet due to aggressive landbanking exercises in 2012. To mitigate the dilution impact, MSGB will match its fund-raising with new land acquisitions. Re-rating catalysts include potential involvement in government land developments. Glomac (GLMC MK; BUY; MYR1.00 TP)   We like Glomac for its cheap valuations, healthy balance sheet (0.13x net gearing) and large exposure in more resilient township developments. Share price drivers include: 1) strong sales figures for Lake Residence project in Puchong; 2) RNAV- accretive land acquisitions; 3) potential involvement in government land developments. Glomac is our preferred pick for the property s ector (developer).  

Transcript of Maybank IB SU 2013-01-14 Property Sector Pain First Gain Later 2873

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SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Sector Update 

14 January 2013

PP16832/01/2013 (031128) 

Malaysia 

Property: DevelopersPain First, Gain Later

Maintain Neutral.  The 13GE will continue to dampen sentiment on

property stocks in 1H13, but a re-rating should take place post-13GE

with the planned rollout of government land developments (GLD) and

the KV MRT2-3 projects. We advise investors to avoid property

developers with high foreign shareholdings given the potential for a

selldown ahead of the 13GE. We prefer developers with large exposure

to township developments i.e. Glomac. We also like UEML for its

exposure to the booming Iskandar Malaysia; accumulate on weakness.

Affordable housing is the key. We expect the demand for affordable

homes to remain strong driven by a sizeable young population. This

housing segment, dominated by first-time buyers/owner occupiers, is

less vulnerable to property downcycles and stricter lending rules.

Developers such as SPSB, Mah Sing and Glomac have been

increasing their exposures in the affordable housing segment by buying

sizeable landbanks in Kajang/Semenyih, Bangi, Sg Buloh and Sepang.

Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is heating up. Rising investments and oil &

gas activities will serve as re-rating catalysts for property/land prices in

IM over the long term. Recent foreign investments in IM such as those

by Ascendas have raised IM’s profile at the international level, reflecting

its attractiveness as an investment destination. UEML, as the largest

land owner in IM, is the prime beneficiary of the IM boom.

Share price drivers. We expect some GLD awards post the 13GE i.e.

Kwasa’s RRIM land in Sg Buloh, the Unilever land in Bangsar and the

Pudu jail redevelopment. These would provide short-term trading

opportunities for property stocks. Frontrunners to win the GLD awards

include GLCs such as SPSB, UEML and MRCB. Final alignment of the

KV MRT 2 

and Circle lines is likely to be announced in 3Q13

(government approval is targeted for 2H13), and may be another re-

rating catalyst for selected developers. Key beneficiaries include SPSB,

YTL Land and Mah Sing.

Stock picks. Our top pick in the sector is Glomac. We like Glomac for

its undemanding valuations and large exposure to township

developments (48% of remaining GDV). We also like SPSB for its

proven track record and strategic landbank. However, the gradual

reduction in its founder stake may affect share price performance. As

for UEML, it is set to benefit from the booming IM. Any selldown ahead

of the 13GE is an opportunity to buy into the stock.

Property Developer Sector  – Peer Valuation Summary Source: Maybank KE

Stock Rec Shrpx

Mkt cap TP PER (x) PER (x) PER (x) P/B (x) P/B (x) ROAE(%)

ROAE(%)

Netyield

(MYR 

(MYRm) (MYR) CY12E CY13E CY14E CY12E CY13E CY12E CY13E CY13E

UEM Land HOLD 2.12 9177.2 2.21 27.5 26.5 22.6 1.7 1.6 7.1 6.0 0.7

SP Setia BUY 3.17 6358.4 4.21 16.4 14.0 10.7 1.6 1.5 9.4 10.4 4.3

Sunway Berhad HOLD 2.43 3140.8 2.54 9.1 8.3 7.5 1.0 0.9 10.6 10.5 2.4

Mah Sing HOLD 2.23 1872.9 2.45 8.1 6.6 4.6 1.5 1.3 18.8 20.5 6.1

Glomac BUY 0.84 592.9 1.00 5.9 5.1 4.0 0.4 0.4 13.4 14.2 7.5

Simple average 21142.3 13.4 12.1 9.9 1.2 1.1 11.8 12.3 4.2

Neutral 

(unchanged) Wong Wei Sum, [email protected](03) 2297 8679

UEM Land (ULHD MK; HOLD; MYR2.21TP). The prime

beneficiary to the Iskandar Malaysia boom. It is also thelargest developer in Malaysia (in term of landbank and marketcapitalisation). Potential surprises could come from strategicland sales and the acquisition of government landdevelopments in Klang Valley.

SP Setia (SPSB MK; BUY; MYR4.21 pre-placement TP). SPSetia is famous with its creative and strong managementteam. Reputable projects include Setia Alam and Setia EcoPark. Share price drivers include: 1) strong sales figures forBattersea post-its official launch in Jan 2013; 2) involvementin government land developments; 3) the final alignment forKVMRT Circle line in mid-2013 which would benefit SPSB’sKL Eco City and Setia Federal Hill.

Sunway (SWB MK; HOLD; MYR2.54 TP)  –  One of theleading property and construction groups in Malaysia. It hasMYR3.2b outstanding orderbook YTD (construction) andMYR2.1b unbilled sales as at Sep’12 (property). With theacquisition of another 779 acres of freehold land in Medini,Sunway emerges as one of the key players in IskandarMalaysia with 1,534 acres of land worth MYR25b in GDV. Re-rating catalysts include potential jobwins from MRT 2nd and 3rd lines.

Mah Sing  (MSGB MK; HOLD; MYR2.45 TP)  - MSGB isfamous with its fast turnaround strategy. MSGB has recentlyproposed to undertake a renounceable rights issue with freewarrants to relief its overstretched balance sheet due toaggressive landbanking exercises in 2012. To mitigate thedilution impact, MSGB will match its fund-raising with newland acquisitions. Re-rating catalysts include potentialinvolvement in government land developments.

Glomac (GLMC MK; BUY; MYR1.00 TP)  – We like Glomacfor its cheap valuations, healthy balance sheet (0.13x netgearing) and large exposure in more resilient townshipdevelopments. Share price drivers include: 1) strong salesfigures for Lake Residence project in Puchong; 2) RNAV-accretive land acquisitions; 3) potential involvement ingovernment land developments. Glomac is our preferred pick

for the property sector (developer). 

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Property: Developers 

A review of 2012

Further tightening measures. The government unexpectedly raised

Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT) by 5ppts in Budget 2013 to curb

speculative activities. The RPGT applies to gains on property disposals

where the holding period is ≤5 years. This comes on top of the prudent

financial measures introduced by the central bank in Nov 2011

(effective 1 Jan 2012), where individual borrower’s borrowing capacity

will be based on his/her net income and no longer on gross income. 

Demand slowed but further policy risk fading. Stricter lending rules

by the central bank and higher RPGT took their toll on property

demand. 9M12 property transaction growth (in value terms) slowed to

+11% YoY vs. +29% YoY in 9M11, whilst house price indexes in major

cities started to trend down QoQ in 3Q12 (Malaysia: -2%, KL: -3%,

Selangor: -2%, Penang: -3%, Johor: -4%). As overall property prices

and demand in major cities both ease, we expect further policy risk to

fade, which would be a comfort to developers.

Rising incoming supply and units under construction Growth in property transaction has slowed down YoY

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

      M     a     r   -      0      3

      S     e     p   -      0      3

      M     a     r   -      0      4

      S     e     p   -      0      4

      M     a     r   -      0      5

      S     e     p   -      0      5

      M     a     r   -      0      6

      S     e     p   -      0      6

      M     a     r   -      0      7

      S     e     p   -      0      7

      M     a     r   -      0      8

      S     e     p   -      0      8

      M     a     r   -      0      9

      S     e     p   -      0      9

      M     a     r   -      1      0

      S     e     p   -      1      0

      M     a     r   -      1      1

      S     e     p   -      1      1

      M     a     r   -      1      2

      S     e     p   -      1      2

Incoming supply Unde r construction

(Units)

 

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

      M    a    r   -      0      9

      J    u    n   -      0      9

      S    e    p   -      0      9

      D    e    c   -      0      9

      M    a    r   -      1      0

      J    u    n   -      1      0

      S    e    p   -      1      0

      D    e    c   -      1      0

      M    a    r   -      1      1

      J    u    n   -      1      1

      S    e    p   -      1      1

      D    e    c   -      1      1

      M    a    r   -      1      2

      J    u    n   -      1      2

      S    e    p   -      1      2

Unit Value

(YoY growth)

 

Source: CEIC, NAPIC Source: CEIC, NAPIC  

House Price Index (HPI) in major cities are trending down  HPI is declining amidst higher incoming supply 

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

       M      a      r   -        0        8

       M      a      y   -        0

        8

       J      u       l   -        0        8

        S      e      p   -        0

        8

       N      o      v   -        0

        8

       J      a      n   -        0

        9

       M      a      r   -        0        9

       M      a      y   -        0

        9

       J      u       l   -        0        9

        S      e      p   -        0

        9

       N      o      v   -        0

        9

       J      a      n   -        1

        0

       M      a      r   -        1        0

       M      a      y   -        1

        0

       J      u       l   -        1        0

        S      e      p   -        1

        0

       N      o      v   -        1

        0

       J      a      n   -        1

        1

       M      a      r   -        1        1

       M      a      y   -        1

        1

       J      u       l   -        1        1

        S      e      p   -        1

        1

       N      o      v   -        1

        1

       J      a      n   -        1

        2

       M      a      r   -        1        2

       M      a      y   -        1

        2

       J      u       l   -        1        2

        S      e      p   -        1

        2

KL Selangor Penang Johor  

HPI 2000 = 100

 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

     M    a    r   -     0     3

     O    c     t   -     0     3

     M    a    y   -     0     4

     D    e    c   -     0     4

     J    u      l   -     0     5

     F    e      b   -     0     6

     S    e    p   -     0     6

     A    p    r   -     0     7

     N    o    v   -     0     7

     J    u    n   -     0     8

     J    a    n   -     0     9

     A    u    g   -     0     9

     M    a    r   -     1     0

     O    c     t   -     1     0

     M    a    y   -     1     1

     D    e    c   -     1     1

     J    u      l   -     1     2

Incoming supply HPI

HPI 2000 = 100(unit)

 

Source: CEIC, NAPIC   Source: CEIC, NAPIC  

Remaining Gross Development Values (GDV) andunbilled sales

Company RemainingGDV

MYR b

Unbilledsales

MYR b

(x) of ourFY13 revenue

forecast

Glomac 6.3 0.8 1.1

Mah Sing 17.2 3.0 1.6

SP Setia 67.0 4.4 1.3

Sunway 26.0 2.1 1.5

UEM Land 42.8 1.9 0.8

* As at Sept 2012 for Mah Sing, Sunway, UEM Land, andOct 2012 for SP Setia and Glomac; Source: Companies

Foreign shareholdings for developers

Company (%)

Glomac 6.7

Mah Sing 24.0

SP Setia 3.6

Sunway 20.5

UEM Land 15.9

Source: Companies

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Property: Developers 

Spotlight on Iskandar Malaysia

New wave of development. 2012 was the tipping point for Iskandar

Malaysia (IM) with the completion of a few catalyst developments such

as LEGOLAND, an indoor theme park and Marlborough College

Malaysia. Also, the oil refinery and petrochemical (Pengerang) and tank

farm (Tj Langsat) projects have kicked off with the MYR5b deepwater

oil terminal project by a Dialog-Vopak-Johor government consortium. All

these developments are re-rating catalysts for property/land prices in

IM, as they will boost the population there.

Rising Singaporean investments. IM is experiencing  higher foreign

investments especially from Singapore since May 2010 after the

resolution of POA 1990. According to the Malaysian Investment

Development Authority, Singapore companies have set up more than

300 manufacturing projects in IM since 2006, and the republic is the

largest single foreign investor in IM. Investment from Singapore is likely

to remain strong, boosted by: 1) rising confidence on IM after the recent

land acquisition by Singaporean company such as Ascendas and

businessmen such as Peter Lim; 2) a proposed rail transit system

between Johor Bahru and Singapore which will improve connectivity

and shorten travelling time; 3) cheaper cost of living, land and labour

costs in IM.

The biggest winner is UEM Land, the largest landowner in Iskandar

Malaysia with 5,145 acres of undeveloped landbank in Nusajaya (worth

MYR24b in GDV) and 680 acres in Desaru (to be developed in a JV

with Khazanah; MYR5.4b in GDV). Other beneficiaries are SP Setia

(1,178 acres of remaining land in IM worth MYR9.4b in GDV), IJM Land

(1,188 acres at Sebana Cove; MYR1.4b in GDV; Not Rated), Sunway(1,534 acres; MYR25b in GDV), E&O (337 acres; MYR3b in GDV; Not

Rated) and Dijaya (350 acres; effective GDV of MYR9.4b; Not Rated).

A better 2H13 outlook

Getting ready for landbanking opportunities.  Developers are

preparing for the tenders of government land developments by

strengthening their balance sheets. Both SPSB and Mah Sing haveproposed to undertake a new share placement and a rights issue

respectively, to relieve their overstretched balance sheets due to

aggressive landbanking in 2012. Sunway could be another candidate

for a cash call given its high net gearing of 0.6x post its Medini and

Singapore land acquisitions, we reckon.

Kick-starting government land developments (GLD). Thus far, only

the 60-acre plot of land in Cochrane has been tendered out by

Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (LTAT)  –  12.8 acres was sold to

Boustead Holdings at MYR190psf in Nov 2012. The long-awaited

tenders of the 3,000-acre Kwasa RRIM land in Sg Buloh and 19-acre

prime Unilever land plots, which should have taken place in 2H12, haveyet to do so. We expect the land awards to pick up pace post the 13GE.

In our view, such land wins provide short-term trading opportunities for

property stocks.

Developers  – Undemanding valuations

Company Price@ 11Jan 2013

(MYR/Sh)

RNAV(MYR/Sh)

Disc. to RNAV(%)

Glomac 0.835 1.82 -54.1

Mah Sing 2.25 3.77 -40.3

SP Setia 3.12 5.26 -40.7

Sunway 2.39 4.62 -48.3

UEM Land 2.15 3.4 -36.8

Average -44.0

Source: Maybank KE

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Property: Developers 

GLCs the likely winners. GLCs will most likely be the front-runners for

a developer role in the government land developments. There is a good

chance that these listed GLCs will secure the larger and more strategic

parcels (especially for the prime RRIM land in Sg Buloh): (i) EPF’s

42%-owned MRCB, (ii) Khazanah’s 65%-owned UEML and (iii) PNB’s

70%-owned SP Setia. However, we believe other developers with

strong track records like Mah Sing, Glomac, IJM Land and YTL Land

also stand a good chance of securing bids to develop some of these

land parcels.

MRT 2-3 lines and High Speed Rail (HSR) are positive for property

prices. Better connectivity and accessibility will raise the land value of

surrounding areas as well as the marketability of new property projects.

It will have a significant positive impact on property prices. As more

information is disseminated by the government on the location of the

MRT/HSR stations, we expect property prices in the vicinity of these

sites to surge. Developments most likely to benefit include: 1)

government land developments such as the KL Metropolis and Unilever

land, 2) SP Setia’s KL Eco City and Setia Federal Hill projects, 3) YTL

Land’s Sentul projects, 4) MRCB’s Sentral project, 5) UEML’s Mont

Kiara projects and 5) Mah Sing’s M City project.

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Property: Developers 

Table 1: Government land developments in the Klang Valley

No Government land Location Land size Potential developers e.GDV(RMm)

Description & status

1 Rubber ResearchInstitute of Malaysia(RRIM) land

Sg Buloh 3,000 acres

(926ha forredevelopment,

216ha for RRI, 73hafor MRT depot)

UEML, MRCB, SP Setia,Mah Sing, IJM Land, YTLLand, Glomac

10,000 Mixed development; Kwasa Land Sdn Bhdis the master developer for the RRIM land;

Land titles have been transferred to Kwasa

Land and it is currently working on themaster plan.

2 Royal Malaysian AirForce Base

Sg Besi 495 acres 1Malaysia DevelopmentBhd (30%), QatarInvestment Authority(40%)

15,000 Mixed development project called BandarMalaysia;

New sites for the Royal Malaysia Air Forcehave been signed and relocation process willbe in phases upon the completion of works atthe new bases within the next 5 years.

3 Jalan Cochrane Pudu-Cheras

60 acres Boustead Holdings 10,000 Mixed development;

Boustead Holdings has acquired 12.8-acrefrom LTAT for MYR106.7m or c. MYR190psfin Nov 2012.

4 Tun Razak Exchange

(previously known as KLInternational FinancialDistrict)

Dataran

Perdana(JalanDavis)

70 acres 1MDB-Abu Dhabi's

Mubadala DevelopmentCo

26,000 Redevelopment of Pasarakyat in Imbi area

into an international financial centre; officiallylaunched in July 2012;

1MDB, the master developer for the KLIFDhas started its tender process for the mainfoundation works for the project.

5 Batu Cantonment armybase

Jalan Ipoh 245 acres AFFB, Boustead Holdings NA Mixed development;

No update thus far.

6 Pudu Jailredevelopment project

BukitBintang, CityCentre

21.2 acres Crest Builder, Bolton 5,000 Offices, hotels, apartments, a transit centreand recreational centre;

UDA is asked to redraw and submit themasterplan for the redevelopment of theformer Pudu jail site by end-2012 after theFinance Ministry ditched the bid by a China-based developer in Oct 2011.

7 Naza KL Metropolis Off Jln Duta,withinMenaraMatrade andnext to SriHartamas

75 acres Naza TTDI 15,000 Future MATRADE Centre, which will beMalaysia's largest meetings, convention andexhibition centre;

Naza TTDI has recently awarded aMYR556m superstructure works contract toDaewoo Engineering and Construction CoLtd for the new Matrade Exhibition Centre.The superstructure works are expected to becompleted by mid-2015;

Naza TTDI has signed a heads of agreementwith Lend Lease (listed in Australia) todevelop a 4.43 ha plot of land worth MYR4bwithin the project.

8 Redevelopment ofKampung Baru

Near KLCC 378 acres PNB 20,000 No update thus far.

9 Warisan Merdeka SurroundingStadiumMerdeka, offJlnMaharajalela

35.8 acres PNB 5,000 100-storey skyscraper, integrateddevelopment; GFA: 3m sq.ft; NLA: 2.2msq.ft.

Construction work on Warisan Merdeka willkick off in 2013. 60% of total spaces will beoccupied by PNB group.

10 Unilever land Along JlnBangsar (ex-Unilever HQand Factory)

19 acres UEML, Bandaraya,MRCB, Sime Propertiesand Mah Sing

4,000-5,000 Mixed development-offices, retail and serviceapartments.

PHB is waiting the approval from the CityHall and it may award the land to oneparty/few parties/JV with developer.

11 Tamansari RiversideGarden City urban

regeneration project

Pekelilingarea

58 acres Mah Sing, several localand foreign developers

9,000 Mixed development; No update thus far.

Total: 120,000

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Property: Developers 

Table 3: SWOT 

UEML SP Setia Sunway Mah Sing Glomac

Strength Strong political links(backed by Khazanah);

Largest land owner inIskandar Malaysia with

strategically locatedlandbank (mostlyfreehold + close

proximity to the SecondLink); Strong Sunrise

brandname andexpertise in high-rise

integrated development

Strong proven trackrecord and Setia

brandname; Strongmanagement team;

Strategically locatedlandbank (urban

redevelopmentprojects i.e. KL EcoCity, Setia Federal

Hill)

Strong Sunwaybrandname;

Supported by steadyrental income from

investmentproperties and

dividend incomefrom 37%-owned

Sunway REIT;Singapore projects

are supported bystrong JV partner,

Hoi Hup

Strong Mah Singbrandname; Fast

turnaround strategywhich means lower

holding cost andstrong cash flow

One of the few bumi-developers with strong

political links; Largeexposure in township

developments - BandarSaujana Utama and

Saujana Rawang; Deepvaluation; Strong

balance sheet (netgearing of 0.13x as at

Oct 2012) providesroom to grow its

landbank

Weakness Long gestation periodand considerable

infrastructure works forGerbang Nusajaya;

Concentration risk asmajority of total

landbank and remainingGDV are in Nusajaya;

Major shareholder(Khazanah) may have

outright decision-making power

especially in land sale;Relatively premium

valuation compared toits peers

Illiquid; The gradualreduction in stake by

its founder, Tan SriLiew may affect share

price performance;Relatively premium

valuation compared toits peers

Mostly high-endproducts, less

exposure inaffordable township

developments; itsrecently-acquired

Pendas North andPendas South land

in Medini requireconsiderable

infrastructure capex;Potential cash callgiven its high net

gearing of close to0.6x; ; High foreign

shareholdings

Lack of a flagshipproject which candefine Mah Sing;Substantial EPS

dilution due to cashcall (rights issue +

free warrants); Highforeign shareholdings

Small marketcapitalisation and low

average trading volume

Opportunity Potential participation ingovernment landdevelopments in

Singapore and KlangValley; Increasing

investments inNusajaya would boostproperty demand and

value over time;Cheaper alternative to

pricey Singapore;Better transpostation

system between JohorBahru and Singapore;RNAV-accretive land

acquisitions

Potential participationin government land

developments inKlang Valley; The KV

MRT circle line may

benefit KL Eco Cityand Setia Federal Hillprojects; RNAV-

accretive landacquisitions

Potential jobwinsfrom MRT 2nd and

3rd lines; RNAV-accretive land

acquisitions

Potential participationin government land

developments inKlang Valley; The KV

MRT circle line may

benefit M City project;RNAV-accretive landacquisitions

Potential participation ingovernment land

developments in KlangValley; Potential enbloc

sales in Glomac

Damansara and PlazaKelana Jaya IV; RNAV-accretive land

acquisitions;

Threat Political and executionrisks involving bilateral

relations betweenMalaysia-Singapore;Oversupply in Mont

Kiara area; Increasingcompetition from local

and foreign developersespecially in Iskandar

Malaysia; Downturn inproperty sector

Downturn in propertysector; Country andcurrency risks (with

projects in UK, Australia, Singapore,

China and Vietnam)

Uncertainties inChina property

market (12% of itsremaining GDV is

from China);Downturn in property

sector especiallyhigh-rise high-end

products

Downturn in propertysector especially high-

rise high-endproducts; Oversupply

in Mont Kiara area

Downturn in propertysector

Source: Maybank KE

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Property: Developers 

Glomac 1-year forward PER  Glomac 1-year forward PBV 

Source: Maybank KE   Source: Maybank KE  

SP Setia 1-year forward PER  SP Setia 1-year forward PBV 

Source: Maybank KE   Source: Maybank KE  

UEM Land 1-year forward PER  UEML 1-year forward PBV 

Source: Maybank KE   Source: Maybank KE  

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Property: Developers 

Sunway 1-year forward PER  Sunway 1-year forward PBV 

Source: Maybank KE   Source: Maybank KE  

Mah Sing 1-year forward PER  Mah Sing 1-year forward PBV 

Source: Maybank KE   Source: Maybank KE  

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Property: Developers 

Company

Briefs

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Property: Developers 

Confident of meeting sales target. Glomac has locked in

property sales of MYR383m in 6MFY4/13 (+81% YoY) or

47% of its FY4/13 sales target of MYR800m. FY4/13 sales

will be driven mainly by its Lake Residence and township

projects, we expect. Meanwhile, its redevelopment projectin Melbourne is not expected to kick off in the short term.

The project, which has an e.GDV of MYR1.2b, is expected

to enhance our RNAV estimate by 4sen.

Ample war chest to expand landbank.  Glomac’s net

gearing remains healthy at 0.13x as at Oct 2012, providing

a potential war chest of MYR475m based on its target net

gearing of 0.5x. To cater to the strong demand for

affordable housing while sustaining its long-term growth,

Glomac is eyeing sizeable tracts of land in Selangor.

Deeply-discounted developer. Our MYR1.00 TP   isbased on a 45% discount to our MYR1.81 RNAV. Share

price drivers include: 1) the potential en-bloc sale of its

retail mall in Glomac Damansara worth MYR350m, 2) its

potential involvement in government land developments,

and 3) RNAV-accretive land acquisitions.

Glomac (GLMC MK) Market Cap (MYR m): 607.7

Shares Issued (m): 727.8

Driven By Township Projects  Current price (MYR): 0.835

Target price (MYR): 1.00

Recommendation: BUY

FYE Apr Revenue EBITDA Net Profit Basic EPS EPS gwth DPS PER EV/EBITDA Div yield P/BV Net Gearing ROE

(MYR m) MYR m) (MYR m) (sen) (%) (sen) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%)

2012A 655.6 174.4 79.3 13.0 22.8 4.1 6.4 3.4 4.9 0.8 12.1 13.5

2013F 793.3 169.4 106.2 14.6 11.9 4.4 5.7 3.8 5.2 0.8 18.0 13.7

2014F 878.0 192.9 124.7 17.1 17.4 5.1 4.9 3.0 6.1 0.7 7.1 14.5

2015F 1,091.4 243.1 164.0 22.5 31.5 6.8 3.7 2.0 8.1 0.6 Net cash 16.8

INCOME STATEMENT (MYR m) BALANCE SHEET (MYR m)

FY Apr 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F FY Apr 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F

Revenue 655.6 793.3 878.0 1,091.4 Fixed Assets 4.2 9.3 13.4 16.7

EBITDA 174.4 169.4 192.9 243.1 Other LT Assets 599.4 728.7 663.9 582.3Depreciation & Amortisation 5.6 4.9 5.9 6.7 Cash/ST Investments 337.2 274.8 352.8 442.3

Operating Profit 161.3 164.6 187.0 236.3 Other Current Assets 420.9 888.1 981.4 1,228.5

 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Assets 1,361.6 1,900.9 2,011.5 2,269.7

Interest (Exp)/Inc (6.8) (11.1) (9.5) (7.7)

Exceptional Items 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Debt 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.6

Pre-Tax Profit 171.9 153.5 177.5 228.6 Other Current Liabilities 236.0 635.0 658.3 801.7

Tax (43.9) (38.4) (44.4) (57.2) LT Debt 331.4 331.4 331.4 331.4

Minority Interest 34.2 8.9 8.4 7.4 Other LT Liabilities 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0

Net Profit 92.3 106.2 124.7 164.0 Minority Interest 61.1 61.1 61.1 61.1

Recurring Net Profit 79.3 106.2 124.7 164.0 Shareholders' Equity 633.5 773.7 861.0 975.9

Total Liabilities-Capital 1,361.6 1,900.9 2,011.5 2,269.7

Revenue Growth % 9.0 21.0 10.7 24.3

EBITDA Growth (%) 23.0 (2.8) 13.9 26.0 Share Capital (m) 609.2 729.0 729.0 729.0

EBIT Growth (%) 19.9 2.0 13.7 26.4 Net Cash/(Debt) (76.9) (139.2) (61.3) 28.2

Net Profit Growth (%) 36.1 23.8 17.4 31.5 Working Capital 96.3 116.5 128.9 160.3

Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 25.8 33.9 17.4 31.5 Net Gearing % 12.1 18.0 7.1 (2.9)

Tax Rate % (26.8) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0)

Sources: Company, Maybank KE

Our top pick.  We continue to like Glomac for its cheap

valuations – 5.1x CY13 PER, 0.8x PBV and a REIT-like net

dividend yield of 5.7%. It currently trades at a 54% discount

to our RNAV estimate of MYR1.81. Glomac is likely to meet

its sales target of MYR800m for FY4/13 (+21% YoY) withthe successful launch of its Lake Residence project in

Puchong.

Township projects continue to shine. Demand for units

in Bandar Saujana Utama and Saujana Rawang remains

strong with average monthly sales of MYR10-14m each,

providing a strong base for Glomac’s earnings. Given the

strong demand for landed properties, Glomac is ramping up

its township development projects. It has acquired another

39 acres of land in Sepang (MYR1.1b in GDV), adding to its

existing 192 acres of landbank there.

Lake Residence, the key catalyst.  Lake Residence

(MYR2b in GDV) should start contributing to Glomac’s 

FY4/13 sales soon. The maiden launch of Lake Residence

Phase 2 at end-Sep 2012 was well-received. All 105 units

of terrace houses at an ASP of MYR700,000/unit were

snapped up in a day. Management now plans to bring

forward the launch of Phase 3 (terraces) to 1QCY13.

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Property: Developers 

Likely winner of government land development

projects. SPSB has demonstrated its strong business

relationship with the government via three urban

redevelopment projects i.e. KL Eco City, recently-secured

Setia Federal Hill (a land swap deal) and the Bandar TunRazak redevelopment in Cheras. Given its proven track

record and strong backing by major shareholder PNB,

SPSB is likely to be a front-runner for a role in government

land developments including the 3,000-acre Rubber

Research Institute Malaysia (RRIM) land in Sungai Buloh.

Share price drivers  include: 1) strong sales figures for

BPS post its official launch in Jan 2013; 2) involvement in

government land developments; 3) the final alignment of

the KVMRT Circle Line in mid-2013, which could benefit

SPSB’s KL Eco City and Setia Federal Hill..

Preparing for growth. SPSB currently trades at a forward

PER/PBV of 14.4x/1.4x, below the respective historical

means of 16x/1.8x. Whilst SPSB’s proposed placement of

322.6m new shares will dilute our FY10-13/14 EPS

estimates by 12%/13%, its balance sheet will strengthen

significantly, giving it the wherewithal to take advantage of

landbanking opportunities. 

S P Setia (SPSB MK) Market Cap (MYR m): 6,270.3

Shares Issued (m): 2,009.7

Scaling Greater Heights  Current price (MYR): 3.12

Target price (MYR): 4.21

Recommendation: BUY

FYE Oct Revenue EBITDA Net Profit Basic EPS EPS gwth DPS PER EV/EBITDA Div yield P/BV Net Gearing ROE

(MYR m) MYR m) (MYR m) (sen) (%) (sen) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%)

2012A 2,526.6 601.0 372.9 18.9 16.4 10.5 16.5 24.8 3.4 1.5 0.6 9.7

2013F 3,625.2 755.1 466.6 21.7 14.8 13.0 14.4 20.3 4.2 1.4 0.8 10.0

2014F 4,588.4 952.6 595.5 27.7 27.6 16.6 11.3 11.5 5.3 1.4 0.9 12.2

2015F 6,544.2 1,354.4 855.2 39.8 43.6 23.9 7.8 13.9 7.6 1.3 0.8 16.3

INCOME STATEMENT (MYR m) BALANCE SHEET (MYR m)

FY Oct 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F FY Oct 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F

Revenue 2,526.6 3,625.2 4,588.4 6,544.2 Fixed Assets 679.6 679.6 679.6 679.6

EBITDA 601.0 755.1 952.6 1,354.4 Other LT Assets 4,693.2 4,452.2 4,211.2 3,970.2Depreciation & Amortisation 18.5 22.9 27.1 31.1 Cash/ST Investments 1,543.6 1,543.6 1,329.8 1,736.3

Operating Profit (EBIT) 582.5 732.2 925.5 1,323.3 Other Current Assets 2,436.9 5,106.9 7,033.3 8,621.5

Interest (Exp)/Inc (15.0) (43.3) (51.4) (52.8) Total Assets 9,353.3 11,782.3 13,254.0 15,007.7

 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

One-offs 20.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Debt 1,520.8 1,520.8 1,520.8 1,520.8

Pre-Tax Profit 567.5 688.9 874.1 1,270.5 Other Current Liabilities 1,429.4 2,030.1 2,556.7 3,626.2

Tax (179.9) (172.2) (218.5) (317.6) LT Debt 2,361.7 3,580.0 4,286.9 4,628.0

Minority Interest 6.2 (50.1) (60.1) (97.7) Other LT Liabilities 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.2

Net Profit 393.8 466.6 595.5 855.2 Minority Interest (4.8) (4.8) (4.8) (4.8)

Recurring Net Profit 372.9 466.6 595.5 855.2 Shareholders' Equity 4,043.9 4,653.9 4,892.1 5,234.2

Total Liabilities-Capital 9,353.3 11,782.3 13,254.0 15,007.7

Revenue Growth % 13.2 43.5 26.6 42.6

EBITDA Growth (%) 32.3 25.6 26.2 42.2 Share Capital (m) 1,973.4 2,151.0 2,151.0 2,151.0

EBIT Growth (%) 31.8 25.7 26.4 43.0 Gross Debt/(Cash) 3,882.6 5,100.8 5,807.7 6,148.9Net Profit Growth (%) 20.1 18.5 27.6 43.6 Net Debt/(Cash) 2,339.0 3,557.3 4,477.9 4,412.6

Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 26.6 25.1 27.6 43.6 Working Capital 1,030.2 3,099.5 4,285.6 5,210.8

Tax Rate % 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Gross gearing % 96.0 109.6 118.7 117.5

Sources: Company, Maybank KE  

Setting the standard.  We continue to like SPSB for its

market leadership, strong track record and strategic

landbank, which underpins its long-term growth potential.

RNAV-accretive land deals could provide positive surprises.

Our TP is MYR4.20 (MYR3.96 post-placement), based on a20% discount to our MYR5.26 RNAV estimate (MYR4.95

post-placement).

Earnings uptrend continues.  SPSB closed its FY10/12

with record sales of MYR4.2b (+29% YoY). Unbilled sales

stood at MYR4.4b as at end-Oct 2012 (1.3x our FY10/13

revenue forecast), providing near-term earnings visibility. It

has set a new record sales target of MYR5.5b (+30% YoY)

for FY10/13, driven by Battersea Power Station (BPS), Eco

Sanctuary in Singapore and Setia Eco Hills in Kajang.

Strengthening its balance sheet. SPSB has been on an

aggressive acquisition drive. Hence, it would not surprise us

if there are more land acquisitions to come. The proposed

private placement of 322.6m new shares is to fund recent

land acquisitions including BPS, as well as initial

construction costs for St Kilda and BPS. Post placement,

SPSB will be able to continue landbanking with ease, as its

net gearing will have fallen to below 0.5x (from above 0.6x). 

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Property: Developers 

Frontrunner for government land developments.  With

strong Khazanah parentage, we view UEML as one of the

frontrunners for government land developments in the

Klang Valley. These include the RRIM land in Sg Buloh

and 19 acres of Unilever land in Bangsar. The securing ofthese developments would provide a strong impetus to

UEML’s earnings and valuation.

Expect stronger 4QFY12.  Results could surprise on the

upside with the recognition of land/asset sales. UEML has

locked in sales of MYR1.24b for the year to Sep 2012,

62% of its revised FY12 sales target of MYR2b (from

MYR3b, due to delays in property launches). Its unbilled

sales of MYR1.9b makes up 0.8x of our FY13 revenue

forecast.

Share price drivers.  Re-rating catalysts include: 1)

potential acquisition of government land developments in

the Klang Valley, 2) higher-than-expected strategic land

sales, 3) the potential listing of IWH, which could generate

more interest in Iskandar Malaysia. Any selldown ahead of

the 13th  general election is an opportunity to buy into the

stock, in our view. 

UEM Land (ULHB MK) Market Cap (MYR m): 9,307.1

Shares Issued (m): 4,328.9

Biggest Winner In Iskandar Malaysia  Current price (MYR): 2.15

Target price (MYR): 2.21

Recommendation: HOLD

FYE Dec Revenue EBITDA Net Profit Basic EPS EPS gwth DPS PER EV/EBITDA Div yield P/BV Net Gearing ROE

(MYR m) MYR m) (MYR m) (sen) (%) (sen) (x) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%)

2011A 1,703.2 368.5 301.7 6.5 21.0 0.0 33.3 26.9 0.0 2.1 19.3 6.2

2012F 2,212.8 536.7 365.4 8.5 30.9 1.5 25.4 18.3 0.7 2.0 16.7 7.1

2013F 2,719.9 709.9 459.7 10.6 25.8 1.5 20.2 15.1 0.7 1.9 25.8 8.5

2014F 2,832.8 695.7 462.7 10.7 0.6 1.5 20.1 15.4 0.7 1.8 24.7 7.9

INCOME STATEMENT (MYR m) BALANCE SHEET (MYR m)

FY Dec 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F FY Dec 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

Revenue 1,703.2 2,212.8 2,719.9 2,832.8 Fixed Assets 162.3 242.6 316.8 385.4

EBITDA 368.5 536.7 709.9 695.7 Other LT Assets 4,516.3 4,379.9 4,187.0 3,953.8

Depreciation & Amortisation 12.2 19.8 25.8 31.4 Cash/ST Investments 904.3 973.9 973.9 973.9Operating Profit 364.1 516.9 684.1 664.3 Other Current Assets 2,210.8 2,552.0 3,754.5 4,232.4

 Associates 42.5 34.4 51.7 81.0 Total Assets 7,793.7 8,148.4 9,232.2 9,545.5

Interest (Exp)/Inc (51.4) (62.3) (122.4) (125.1)

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Debt 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7

Pre-Tax Profit 355.2 489.0 613.4 620.2 Other Current Liabilities 673.1 715.3 987.4 861.5

Tax (52.3) (122.2) (153.3) (155.1) LT Debt 1,511.7 1,511.7 2,047.7 2,089.1

Minority Interest (1.2) (1.3) (0.3) (2.5) Other LT Liabilities 260.7 260.7 260.7 260.7

Net Profit 301.7 365.4 459.7 462.7 Minority Interest 460.2 460.2 460.2 460.2

Recurring Net Profit 301.7 365.4 459.7 462.7 Shareholders' Equity 4,836.4 5,148.9 5,424.6 5,822.4

Total Liabilities-Capital 7,793.7 8,148.4 9,232.2 9,545.5

Revenue Growth % 262.6 29.9 22.9 4.1

EBITDA Growth (%) 99.9 45.7 32.3 (2.0) Share Capital (m) 4,169.9 4,169.9 4,323.8 4,323.8

EBIT Growth (%) 102.9 42.0 32.3 (2.9) Net Cash/(Debt) (931.3) (861.7) (1,397.6) (1,439.1)

Net Profit Growth (%) 55.1 21.1 25.8 0.6 Working Capital 2,390.3 2,759.0 3,689.3 4,293.1Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 55.1 21.1 25.8 0.6 Net Gearing % 19.3 16.7 25.8 24.7

Tax Rate % 14.7 25.0 25.0 25.0

Sources: Company, Maybank KE  

Iskandar Malaysia (IM) is heating up. Rising investments

and oil & gas activities will serve as re-rating catalysts for

property/land prices in IM over the long term. UEML, as the

largest landowner in IM, is the prime beneficiary of the IM

boom. Our TP of MYR2.21, based on 35% discount toMYR3.40 RNAV, has upside potential.

Rising foreign investments.  Recent foreign investments

in IM such as those by Ascendas and Country Garden have

raised IM’s profile at the international level, reflecting its

attractiveness as an investment destination. IM’s property

prices would be further boosted by a better transportation

system, we believe. With a wide range of property types on

offer, UEML is set to benefit from the booming IM.

Boosted by catalyst developments. 2012 was the tipping

point for Iskandar Malaysia with the completion of a few

landmark developments e.g. LegoLand, an indoor theme

park and Marlborough College. Projects to be completed

over the next two years include Pinewood Iskandar

Malaysia Studios, Netherlands Maritime Institute of

Technology, etc. These projects will accelerate growth at

Nusajaya and boost the population in Iskandar Malaysia.

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Property: Developers 

RESEARCH OFFICES  REGIONAL

P K BASU Regional Head, Research & Economics

(65) 6432 1821 [email protected]

WONG Chew Hann, CA   Acting Regional Head of Institutional Research

(603) 2297 8686 [email protected]

ONG Seng YeowRegional Products & Planning(65) 6432 1453 [email protected]

ECONOMICSSuhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist

  Singapore | Malaysia(603) 2297 8682 [email protected]

Luz LORENZO 

  Philippines | Indonesia(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]

Tim LEELAHAPHAN

  Thailand 

(662) 658 1420 [email protected]

MALAYSIAWONG Chew Hann, CA  Head of Research 

(603) 2297 8686 [email protected]  Strategy  Construction & InfrastructureDesmond CH’NG, ACA(603) 2297 8680 [email protected]  Banking - Regional  LIAW Thong Jung(603) 2297 8688 [email protected]

  Oil & Gas  Automotive  ShippingONG Chee Ting, CA(603) 2297 8678 [email protected]  Plantations- Regional  

Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected]  Aviation

  Petrochem YIN Shao Yang, CPA(603) 2297 8916 [email protected]  Gaming – Regional

  Media TAN CHI WEI, CFA(603) 2297 8690 [email protected]  Power  

  TelcosWONG Wei Sum, CFA(603) 2297 8679 [email protected]

  Property & REITsLEE  Yen Ling(603) 2297 8691 [email protected]

  Building Materials  Manufacturing  Technology

LEE  Cheng Hooi Head of Retail  

[email protected]  Technicals

HONG KONG / CHINAEdward FUNG Head of Research 

(852) 2268 0632 [email protected]  ConstructionIvan CHEUNG, CFA(852) 2268 0634 [email protected]  Property  IndustrialIvan LI, CFA(852) 2268 0641 [email protected]  Banking & FinanceJacqueline KO, CFA(852) 2268 0633 [email protected]

  ConsumerAndy POON  (852) 2268 0645 [email protected]

  Telecom & equipmentAlex YEUNG  (852) 2268 0636 [email protected]

  IndustrialWarren LAU (852) 2268 0644 [email protected]  Technology - Regional  Karen Kwan

(852) 2268 0640 [email protected]  China Property

INDIAJigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected]

  Oil & Gas  Automobile  CementAnubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] n

  Metal & Mining  Capital goods  Property

Ganesh RAM (91) 226623 2607 [email protected]  Telecom

  Contractor

SINGAPOREGregory YAP Head of Research 

(65) 6432 1450 [email protected]  Technology & Manufacturing  Telcos - Regional  

Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 [email protected]

  Hotel & Resort  Property & ConstructionJames KOH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected]  Logistics  Resources

  Consumer  Small & Mid Caps YEAK Chee Keong, CFA(65) 6432 1460 [email protected]  Offshore & MarineAlison FOK (65) 6432 1447 [email protected]  Services  S-chipsBernard CHIN (65) 6432 1146 [email protected]

  Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)ONG Kian Lin(65) 6432 1470 [email protected]

  REITs / PropertyWei Bin(65) 6432 1455 [email protected]

  S-chips  Small & Mid Caps

INDONESIAKatarina SETIAWAN Head of Research 

(62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected]  Consumer  Strategy

  TelcosLucky ARIESANDI, CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected]

  Base metals  Mining  Oil & Gas

  WholesaleRahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected]

  Banking  MultifinancePandu ANUGRAH  (62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected]  Automotive

  Heavy equipment  Plantation  Toll roadAdi N. WICAKSONO (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected]  GeneralistAnthony YUNUS  (62) 21 2557 1139 [email protected]  Cement

  Infrastructure  PropertyArwani PRANADJAYA 

(62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected]  Technicals

PHILIPPINESLuz LORENZO Head of Research 

(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]  StrategyLaura D  Y-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected]  Utilities

  Conglomerates  TelcosLovell SARREAL  (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected]  Consumer  Media

  CementKenneth NERECINA (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected]

  Conglomerates  Property  Ports/ LogisticsKatherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected]

  Banks  ConstructionRamon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8845 ramon_adviento@mayba nk-atrke.com  Mining 

THAILANDSukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Research (66) 2658 6300 ext [email protected]  

Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research 

Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext [email protected]

  Consumer/ Big Caps

Andrew STOTZ Strategist  

(66) 2658 6300 ext 5091 [email protected]

Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected]   Strategy

Suttatip PEERASUB 

(66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected]  Media  CommerceSutthichai KUMWORACHAI  (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected]  Energy

  PetrochemTermporn TANTIVIVAT  (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected]

  PropertyWoraphon WIROONSRI  (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected]

  Banking & FinanceJaroonpan WATTANAWONG  (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected]

  Transportation  Small cap.Chatchai JINDARAT(66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 [email protected]  ElectronicsPongrat RATANATAVANANANDA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1398 [email protected]  Services/ Small Caps

VIETNAMMichael KOKALARI, CFA Head of Research (84) 838 38 66 47 [email protected]

  StrategyNguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen(84) 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected]

  Food and Beverage  Oil and GasNgo Bich Van(84) 844 55 58 88 x 8084 [email protected]  Banking

Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep(84) 844 55 58 88 x 8242 [email protected]  Technology

  Utilities  ConstructionDang Thi Kim Thoa(84) 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected]  ConsumerNguyen Trung Hoa

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected]  Steel  Sugar

  Resources

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Property: Developers 

APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES

DISCLAIMERS

This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as anoffer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and thateach security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical rating s and fundamental ratings.Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related

information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis.   Accordingly, investors’ returns may be l ess than the original suminvested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does nottake into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investorsshould therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed orrecommended in this report.  

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by MaybankInvestment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is ma de as to the accuracy or completeness ofthis report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connec ted parties and/or employees(collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of thisreport. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.

This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”,“intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or beachieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and aresubject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements.Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any suchforward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipatedevents.

MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, fromtime to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit businessfrom such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investmentsrelated thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law,act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors,officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report.

This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or  distributed to any other party inwhole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for theactions of third parties in this respect.

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country orother jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This rep ort is for distribution only under suchcircumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories ofinvestors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographicallocation of the person or entity receiving this report.

Malaysia

Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamentalratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa MalaysiaSecurities Berhad in the equity analysis.  

Singapore 

This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“MaybankKERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contactMaybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor,expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for thecontents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.

Thailand

The disclosure of the survey result of the Th ai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of theOffice of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailandand the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from theperspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.The survey result is as of the date appearing in theCorporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand)

Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the pri or written permission of MBKET.MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

US 

This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defin ed in Rule 15a-6 under theSecurities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker -dealer registered in the US(registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA inthe US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in theUS. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. Youshould satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevantlegislation and regulations.

UK

This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Fin ancialServices Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the FinancialServices and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any

responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered asconstituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

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Property: Developers 

DISCLOSURES

Legal Entities Disclosures

Malaysia:  This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of BursaMalaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issuedand distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT KimEng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and

Exchange Commission.Philippines:MATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securitiesand Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company (“KEVS”) (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under theStateSecuritiesCommission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: KimEng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of I ndia Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the BombayStock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA  – Broker ID 27861. UK:Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Disclosure of Interest

Malaysia:  MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further actas market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment bankingservices, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.  

Singapore:  As of 14 January 2013, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommend ed in this researchreport.

Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the

research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connectedparties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.

Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.

 As of 14 January 2013, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.

MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market inissues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investmentservices in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.

OTHERS

Analyst Certification of Independence

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part ofthe research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or vi ews expressed in the report.

ReminderStructured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capableof understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and politicalfactors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of anyissuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its ownprofessional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.  

Definition of Ratings

Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system:

BUY  Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

HOLD  Total return is expected to be between -10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

SELL  Total return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only

applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings

as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):

 Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings

BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth

CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio

Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter

CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On AssetDCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On EquityDPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds  

EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year

EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date

EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax

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Property: Developers 

  Malaysia

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad(A Participating Organisation ofBursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,100 Jalan Tun Perak,50050 Kuala Lumpur

Tel: (603) 2059 1888;Fax: (603) 2078 4194

  Singapore

Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd9 Temasek Boulevard#39-00 Suntec Tower 2Singapore 038989

Tel: (65) 6336 9090Fax: (65) 6339 6003

  London

Maybank Kim Eng Securities(London) Ltd 6/F, 20 St. Dunstan’s Hill London EC3R 8HY, UK

Tel: (44) 20 7621 9298

Dealers’ Tel: (44) 20 7626 2828 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6674

  New York

Maybank Kim Eng SecuritiesUSA Inc 777 Third Avenue, 21st FloorNew York, NY 10017, U.S.A.

Tel: (212) 688 8886

Fax: (212) 688 3500

Stockbroking Business:Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,No.1, Jalan Maarof59000 Kuala LumpurTel: (603) 2297 8888Fax: (603) 2282 5136

  Hong Kong

Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd Level 30,Three Pacific Place,1 Queen’s Road East, Hong Kong

Tel: (852) 2268 0800Fax: (852) 2877 0104

  Indonesia

PT Kim Eng Securities Plaza BapindoCitibank Tower 17th FloorJl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

  India

Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd2nd Floor, The International 16,Maharishi Karve Road,Churchgate Station,Mumbai City - 400 020, India

Tel: (91).22.6623.2600Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

  Philippines

Maybank ATR Kim Eng SecuritiesInc. 

17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle, Ayala AvenueMakati City, Philippines 1200

Tel: (63) 2 849 8888Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

  Thailand

Maybank Kim Eng Securities(Thailand) Public Company

Limited 999/9 The Offices at Central World,20th - 21st Floor,Rama 1 Road Pathumwan,Bangkok 10330, Thailand

Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales)Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

  VietnamIn association with

Kim Eng Vietnam SecuritiesCompany

1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St.District 1Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Tel : (84) 838 38 66 36Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

  Saudi ArabiaIn association with

Anfaal CapitalVilla 47, Tujjar Jeddah

Prince Mohammed bin AbdulazizStreet P.O. Box 126575Jeddah 21352

Tel: (966) 2 6068686Fax: (966) 26068787

  South Asia Sales Trading

Connie [email protected]: (65) 6333 5775US Toll Free: 1 866 406 7447 

  North Asia Sales Trading

Eddie [email protected]: (852) 2268 0800US Toll Free: 1 866 598 2267 

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